PV Day Conference India - A New Rising Star of Asian PV Market. Debasish Paul Choudhury President, SEMI India March 16, 2011

Transcription

1 PV Day Conference India - A New Rising Star of Asian PV Market Debasish Paul Choudhury President, SEMI India March 16,

2 Presentation Agenda India a land of opportunities Solar Energy & India Government regulations & policy Business Opportunities and PV market in India SOLARCON India 2011

3 India On the move A Macro View India s GDP of USD 1.4 trillion (IMF data) makes it the 11th largest economy in the world, and 4th largest in terms of purchasing power parity One of the fastest growing economies in the world - growing at an average of close to 8% per year over the last 5 years One of the top 10 investment destinations in the world in terms of FDI India s share in the global semiconductor market is expected to increase from 1.2% in 2005 (and 2.1% in 2010) to about 8-9% by 2015 World's second largest small car market - In January 2011, Indians bought 184,000 cars, more than total car sales in the year 1991 Triple Advantage Local market, Low cost manufacturing and Robust R&D and Back-end Service capabilities

4 India On the move The 5-D s Democracy Largest democracy in the world; 9 Prime Ministers from 6 major parties since Independence ONE POLICY Diversity 23 languages, 30 provinces, 6 major religions ONE COUNTRY Demographics 1.2 Billion population, and will remain a young nation beyond 2050 The quality of Indian work force is one of India s key competitive advantages Demand 5th largest consumer market in the World; 350 ml middle class Rising income will lift 300 ml into the middle classes by 2050 Diaspora Over 30 ml Indians around the Globe, many working in Knowledge Industries

5 Presentation Agenda India a land of opportunities Solar Energy & India Government regulations & policy Business Opportunities and PV market in India SOLARCON India 2011

6 Solar Energy & India For centuries, the Sun had been worshipped as the Light Deity, and the ultimate source of power in India Government of India holds the credit for setting up world s first dedicated government agency for the development of renewable energy, named Commission for Additional Sources of Energy (CASE) in Charged with: responsibility of formulating policies and their implementation programs for development of new and renewable energy coordinating and intensifying R&D in the sector Once again, India has stood up for the welfare of humanity, and announced an ambitious solar mission to mitigate the effects of Climate Change, titled Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM), which proposes to generate 20 GW of solar power by 2022 Today, there is a real opportunity to transform the age old legend into a business plans by the global community

7 Solar Energy & India Before the National Solar Mission era, India was largely an off-grid solar market. The primary products were solar lanterns, streetlights, water pumps, solar water heaters, etc. Until 2009, India had only one 2 MW grid connected solar power plant operational in the country. Today, 18 MW of grid-connected solar power plants are already functional, and another 100 MW are at various stages of construction The new push in on-grid solar installation draws from the JNNSM and also the earlier SIPS scheme (under the Semicon Policy ) to promote semiconductor manufacturing in the country Govt. of India has given in-principle approval to 13 proposals under SIPS for PV cell and module manufacturing. The total investment proposed by these applicants is around US$8.5 billion over a period of 10 years

8 Presentation Agenda India a land of opportunities Solar Energy & India Government regulations & policy Business Opportunities and PV market in India SOLARCON India 2011

9 Key Policy Enablers of PV in India The National Action Plan on Climate Change (2008) National Solar Mission is one of eight missions under NAPCC Other key policy measures promoting use of renewables/solar energy The Electricity Act, 2003 The National Electricity Policy, 2005 The National Tariff Policy, 2006 The National Rural Electrification Policy, 2006 Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs) and the REC (yet to be implemented) mechanism will drive purchase of solar power and enable trading between states Generation Based Initiatives applicable to previously approved plant projects under migration scheme, rooftop installations and in the states - benchmark well with global FIT best practices

10 National and select State Policies are driving PV activity Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JN-NSM) was launched on January 11, 2010 Targets (Including Solar PV and Solar Thermal) Phases Grid Connected solar power including roof top Off-grid/Decentralized Solar Phase I ( ) 1000 MW 200 MW Phase II ( ) 4000 MW 1000 MW Phase III ( ) 20,000 MW 2000 MW State Government policies led by the State of Gujarat s Solar Policy 2009 (over 350MW of PV projects selected ) are attracting investment and much activity in Solar Gujarat Solar Policy 2009 target is 500 MW by 2014

11 Current Business Environment Solar/PV plants activity seeing significant uptick post JN-NSM & state policy roll outs in MW of new projects selected under JN-NSM 100 MW of previously underway projects migrated into JN-NSM at GBI Over 350 MW PV capacity approved in Gujarat state alone Several other states seeing activity Rajasthan, TN, Punjab, etc 77.8 MW of Roof top/small scale projects approved Off-grid approvals on-going (20 MW sanctioned by Aug 31, 2010) EPC companies are busy ; Consultants in much demand; Many new entrants in the plants/epc space Inverter companies have abundant orders Indian cell/module manufacturers are adding close to 1GW of module capacity in 2011 US$ 700 million in investments have been committed already

12 Key states with increased PV activity JN-NSM plant allocations, so far Source: Ernst & Young Quarterly Report Most plants under JN-NSM so far, located in Rajasthan Gujarat has selected 350MW of projects under state policy Other states with plants activity: Andhra Pradesh, Orissa Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Punjab Off-grid activity increasing in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh Off-Grid project allocations under JN-NSM, until Aug 31, 2010 Based on MNRE data AP Arunachal 150 Chattisgarh 100 Haryana 121 HP 105 J&K 97 Karnataka 122 Lakshadweep MP Maharashtra Manipur Mizoram Punjab Rajasthan TN Uttarakhand UP Non State KWp

13 Key JN-NSM differentiators JN-NSM is technology neutral allowing play for both solar PV and solar thermal Has been innovative in using the mechanism of bundling solar PV power with conventional thermal power to reduce the costs for distribution companies NVVN (NTPC subsidiary) is the trading company that will bundle and sell to distribution companies Has allowed a price discovery mechanism for selecting new power plant projects under Phase-1 (first batch) Discount (reverse) bidding was conducted based on CERC notified rates Lowest bids have been > 30% below notified rate of Rs per kwh Has fragmented the size of projects (5 MWp each) to allow more than a few parties to enter the business and allow projects in different locations Addresses power plants, off-grid/de-centralized and rooftop/small scale PV

14 Presentation Agenda India a land of opportunities Solar Energy & India Government regulations & policy Business Opportunities and PV market in India SOLARCON India 2011

15 Solar PV in India The past and future are going to be very different especially for grid PV Current Sources of Grid Power in India Gas, 17,456 MW Oil, 1,200 MW Coal, 92,638 MW Hydro, 37,367 MW Nuclear, 4,780 MW Renewables, 18,655 MW Small Hydro, 2,939 MW Biomass, 997 MW Bagasse, 1,562 MW Waste to power, 73 MW Wind, 13,066 MW Solar PV, 18 MW Source Percent Coal Gas Oil 0.70 Hydro Nuclear 2.78 Wind 7.59 Small Hydro 1.71 Biomass 0.58 Bagasse 0.91 Waste to power 0.04 Solar PV 0.01 Current grid connected PV in India is about 18 MWp (graph above) Grid connected figure will change dramatically in the next 1-2 years (plants under construction via JN-NSM & state government policies) Off-grid installations are in the region of MWp & will continue to grow at current or slightly higher rates

16 India Solar PV Market: A guesstimate Projected (Installed) PV Generation Capacity Moderate-Low & Moderate-High Scenario MWp Grid-connected as % of total PV capacity in Mod- Low scenario 2% 14% 100 Total Capacity Mod-High Scenario (no segment breakup) % % Total Capacity Mod- Low Scenario % De-centralized/Off-grid Rooftop and Small Scale Power Plants Total Capacity - Moderate-High Scenario Total Capacity - Moderate Low Scenario Year 0 Two scenarios Moderate-Low & Moderate-High Influenced by Phase-1 targets of JN-NSM, Migration projects & State policy Data is based on preliminary SEMI India analysis

17 India Solar PV Cell/Module Manufacturing Cell & Module Production (Name Plate) Capacity 2500 MWp Module Capacity - F&S Data Module Capacity - Industry Source Module Capacity - SEMI estimate Cell Capacity - F&S Data Cell Capacity - SEMI Estimate Year Actual production is only around 50%-60% of name plate capacity Historically 70% of production has been exported (European, other markets) Domestic content provisions present in JN-NSM but NOT in State policies

18 Off grid PV Opportunities, are huge 70,000 villages off-grid Upwards of 400 M people without grid access JN-NSM Offers 30% capital subsidy on standalone systems 50% capital subsidy for local/mini grids Soft loans at 5% rate of interest Top Applications Home/school/village lighting & basic electrification Water/irrigation pumpsets Telecom Towers/base stations

19 The Indian Market is attracting new entrants Partial/Indicative list of new entrants in the solar business in India, including international majors who have established an India solar focus/presence in recent months Equipment Polysilicon Cells Modules BOS EPC Plant Developers Centrotherm Lanco Solar Jain Solar Bosch Emerson NW Pwr Aries Waaree Adani Lanco Solar Chemtrols Solar KACO Bosch GMR Lanco Solar Siemens Chemtrols Solar Mahindra Solar Tapan Solar SMA Cirus Solar Punj Lloyd Steca Bergen Gehrlicher SunEdison Gestamp Welspun ICE Solar ZebaSolar juwi Solar Pan Exergy SDEM Tega Key opportunity areas: EPC Plant Maintenance & Operations Inverters (grid connected and off-grid) Structures Off-grid / de-centralized PV systems (water pumps, rural electrification, standby) LED and efficient lighting (rural and urban applications) Infra Majors w EPC Interest GMR GVK Larsen & Toubro IVRCL Infra. Jayaprakash Assoc.

20 A snap shot of Indian PV eco-system Polysilicon Cell Module Inverters EPC Plant Developers Lanco Solar BEL Access Solar ABB AES AES BHEL Andromeda Energy APC Aries Waaree Adani CEL BEL DB Electronics (Emerson) Astonfield Alex Spectrum Indosolar BHEL Delta Bosch Amrit Animation Jain Solar Bosch KACO Chemtrols Solar Astonfield Jupiter Solar Power CEL Numeric Power Systems Cirus Solar Azure Power Maharishi Solar Chemtrols Solar Optimal Power Synergy Enfinity Bhaskar Green Moser Baer Emmvee Solar Schneider Electric Eversun Camelot Enterprises Tata BP Solar Euro Multivision Siemens Gehrlicher CCCL Infrastructure Udhaya Semiconductor HHV Solar Statcon Gestamp Coastal Projects Websol Energy Systems Icomm Tele Steca Bergen ICE Solar DDE Renewable Lanco Solar Jain Solar Sukam juwi Solar Dreisatz Kotak Urja M+W Zander Electrical Mfg Co Lanco Solar Moser Baer PV ElectroMech Maritech Maharishi Solar Pan Exergy Euro Solar Moser Baer PV Photon Energy Finehope Allied Nest Energy Refex GMR PAE Limited SDEM Tega Greentech Power Photon Energy Systems Solar Semi IOCL PLG Power Sun Edison JSW Energy Premier Solar Systems Sun Technics Khaya Solar PV Power Technologies Tata BP Solar KPTCL REIL Titan Energy KRIBHCO Reliance Solar XL Energy Lanco Solar Solar Semiconductor Louroux Solkar Solar Maharashtra Seamless Sun Solar Techno Mahindra Solar Sun Technics Millenium Synergy Suntime Energy Moser Baer PV Sunwatt Energy (India) Newton Solar Surana Northwest Energy Tapan Solar Oswal Woolen Tata BP Solar Precision Technik Titan Energy Systems Punj Lloyd UD Energy Systems Rithwik Projects USL Photovoltaics Saidham Overseas Vikram Solar Saisudhir Energy Waaree Energies Sun Edison Websol Energy Systems Sunkon XL Telecom & Energy Tatith Energies Topsun Torrent Power Unity Power (Videocon) Vasavi Solar Power Viraj Renewables WBREDA Zeba Solar

21 Presentation Agenda India a land of opportunities Solar Energy & India Government regulations & policy Business Opportunities and PV market in India SOLARCON India 2011

22 SOLARCON India 2011 November 9 to 11 HICC, Hyderabad Key Highlights 250+ booths solar/pv focused business visitors US DoC Trade Fair Certification & US Pavilion Through Certification, the Commercial Service of the Department of Commerce recognizes your professional capability to organize a United States Pavilion and endorses this event as an excellent opportunity to showcase U.S. products & services Strong Government Support LED/LED Lighting & Application Pavilion World Class Venue & Show International Conference / Workshops

23 SOLARCON India 2011 Conference Preliminary/Tentative View Conference Theme: Charting India's roadmap to solar leadership - Translating potential to reality Day 1 Track A Track B Track C Inaugural and Keynotes Solar Market Overviews (India and Global) State Government Policies in India: Local Opportunities outside of JNNSM CEO Forum (panel brainstoms key messages & takeaways so far) Networking Dinner / Evening Day 2 Track A Track B Track C Engineering, Procurement, Construction (EPC)& Maint & Ops (M&O)- Challenges & Needs in India PV Plant Developers Forum Financing Solar in India Novel PV Products & Applications (mainly offgrid) CEO Forum (panel brainstoms key messages & takeaways so far) Cell/Module Technology & Trends Equipment and Materials Market/Trends Manufacturing Standards in PV Industry Forum: Manufacturing/Equipment Sponsored Networking Evening Day 3 Track A Track B Track C End to end Solar Manufacturing in India: Materials to Systems Power Electronics & Storage for PV LED/Efficient Lighting - a key driver of solar/pv Industry Forum: Power electronics Building solar/pv expertise (Training & Manpower development) Short Course with certification (to be identified) Short Course with certification (to be identified) Workshop: To be Announced

24 SOLARCON India 2011 Current Floor Plan (as of March 9, 2011) Sign up to be present on the show floor, today!

25 Come.explore.. be a part of the great Indian opportunity! We look forward to welcoming you to SOLARCON India 2011! Thank you! dchoudhury@semi.org