Climate Change: Taking Individual

Transcription

1 Climate Change: Taking Individual Behavior Seriously Staff Advisory Council Vanderbilt University October 14, 2008 Michael P. Vandenbergh Professor of Law Co-Director, Regulatory Program Director, Climate Change Research Network

2 Overview Climate Change Research Network Can We Talk? Climate Change Assumptions The Individual and Household Sector Low-Hanging Fruit Equity Offsets The China Problem 2

3 Climate Change Research Network Climate Change Research Network Website at Key Elements - Environmental Engineers and Scientists - Social and Behavioral Scientists - Law and Policy Experts - Meridian Institute - Integrated Agenda for Basic & Applied Research - Interaction with Policymakers 3

4 Climate Change Research Network: Faculty Participants - Brooke Ackerly (political science) - Jack Barkenbus (VCEMS) - Lisa Bressman (law) - Jim Clarke (civil & envt l engineering) - Mark Cohen (Owen/RFF) - Ford Ebner (psychology) - Florence Faucher-King (European Studies) - James Fraser (social psychology) - Doug Fisher (computer science) - Jonathan Gilligan (earth th& envt l science) - Michael Vandenbergh (law) - W. Kip Viscusi (law and economics) - Ken Wallston (psychology. School of Nursing) 4

5 Climate Change Research Network Examples of Recent Papers The Carbon-Neutral Individual, 82 NYU L. REV (2007)(Vandenbergh & Steinemann) A Comparison of Carbon Calculators, 28 ENVTL. IMPACT ASSESS. REV. 106 (2008) (Padgett, Steinemann, Clarke & Vandenbergh) Climate Change: The Equity Problem, 26 VA. ENVTL. L. J. 53 (2007)(Vandenbergh & Ackerly) Individual Carbon Emissions: The Low-Hanging Fruit, 55 UCLA L. REV. 1701(2008) (Vandenbergh, Barkenbus & Gilligan) Climate Change: The China Problem, 81 S. CAL L. REV. 905 (2008) (Vandenbergh) Papers available on SSRN at: / th 5

6 Can We Talk? The Effect of Ideology IPCC Conclusions (source: Somerville 2008) The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. - IPCC (1995) There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. -IPCC (2001) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. IPCC, Paris, 2 February 2007 ( very likely means at least 90%)

7 Can We Talk? The Effect of Ideology Source: Dunlap & McCright (2008)

8 Can We Talk? The Effect of Ideology Source: Dunlap & McCright (2008)

9 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report > 90% probability warming over last 50 years cannot be explained without human activity 11 of 12 warmest years since 1850 occ. since degrees F global increase (2-4.5 C) this century almost inevitable (assuming 560 ppm) 10.8 degrees F (6 C) or more increase cannot be ruled out Sea level l rise of roughly 2 feet (.43 meters) by 2100 (without ice sheet breakup) Sea levels were feet higher last time avg polar temps were 5.4 to 9 degrees F higher (125,000 years ago) 9

10 Albedo -- How Much Solar Radiation Gets Absorbed? Source: Meier et al. (2007) Sea ice (α>0.6) generally absorbs less Ice-free ocean surface (α~0.07) 07) than 40% of incoming solar energy absorbs over 90% of incoming (frozen snow-covered ice, α= ) solar energy

11 Uncertainty: More Severe Arctic Sea Ice Melt Source: Meier et al., (2007) Range of Models Observations 2007 = 4.28 Observations vs. IPCC model simulations for month of September An Arctic in Transformation

12 Climate Change Assumptions Warner-Lieberman (2012 freeze; 70%) McCain and Obama (support cap and trade, different % cuts) U.S. CAP (60% - 80% by 2050) California (80%) Florida (80%) France (75%) U.S. Mayors (level off) The Vatican (carbon neutrality) Colleges & Universities (carbon neutrality) 12

13 Individual Behavior: A Discrete Source Ct Category Substantial, Direct Control The Model S Carbon Dioxide S Direct Household Energy Use S Home Electricity Use S Personal Transportation 13

14 Individual Behavior: Average and Aggregate Impacts Comparisons - 14,532 pounds/year = 33% of US total trillion (individual) > 3.9 trillion (industry) - US generated 24.4% of world total in US individual share is ~ 8% of world total - Larger than Central Am., South Am., and Africa combined - 2/3 the total for China 14

15 Individual Behavior: Comparisons with Industry Sectors 1% Change in Individual Behavior = 41 billion pounds Industry Sector Comparisons - Aluminum Production = 13.7 billion pounds - Soda Ash Manufacturing = 9.2 billion pounds - Petrochemical Production = 3.3 billion pounds 15

16 Individual Behavior: Leading Sources (Source: Vandenbergh, Barkenbus & Gilligan (2008)) 16

17 Individual Behavior: Specific Bh Behavior Reductions Rd Top Fifteen Steps for Reducing Total Household Energy Consumption (Gardner & Stern, 2002, tbl. 10-3) Transportation Percentage Buy More Efficient Car 20 Car Pool with 2 Others 4-6 Cut Shopping Trips by Half 2 Alter Driving Habits 2 Get Frequent Tune-ups 2 Maintain Tire Pressure 1 Subtotal Household Activities Insulate and Weatherize House 10 Install More Efficient Heating Equip. 8 Reduce From 72 to 68 days, 65 nights 4 Install More Eff. Water Heater 2 Install More Eff. Refrig./Freezer 1.6 Water Heat Reduced by 20 degrees 1 Change Half of Bulbs to Fluorescent 1 Install More Eff. Stove 0.9 Install More Eff. Air Cond. 0.7 Subtotal 29.2 TOTAL

18 Low-Hanging Fruit Emissions Reductions (million short tons) (Source: Vandenbergh, Barkenbus & Gilligan (2008)) Measure Low High 1) Reduce idling ) Reduce standby power ) CFL substitution ) 2 degree temperature change ) Water heater temp. changes ) Tire pressure maintenance ) Auto air filter changes Totals

19 Individual Behavior: Low-Hanging Fruit -- Idling Common Personal Motor Vehicle Idling Recommendations = 30 seconds (cold); 10 seconds (hot) Current Contribution ~ 17 billion pounds Potential Savings ~ 12 billion pounds 19

20 Emissions Reductions: Comparison with Other Measures 150 Million Ton Target Comparable to: - 26 Million Motor Vehicles - 54 Large Power Plants; or - 57% of Petroleum Refining Emissions ¼ of Lieberman-Warner 2012 Reductions All of Energy Independence & Security Act CAFE 2020 Reductions 20

21 Low-Hanging Fruit -- Idling 5-8% of Personal Motor Vehicle Gasoline Million Tons of CO 2 Common Recommendations = 30 Seconds (Cold); 10 Seconds (Hot) Options: General and Targeted Information Campaign, Subsidy for ISGs, Anti-Idling Laws Assumption: 10% Idling Reduction Potential Savings: 6-10 Million Tons of CO 2, $50- $80/year Per Vehicle ($1.9-$3.1 Billion Total) Cost to Government: $107 Million ($11-$17/ton) Nt Net: ~$2-$3 $2$3 Billion Savings 21

22 Climate Change Research Network Low-Cost, High-Yield Behavior Change: Motor Vehicle Idling Motivations/Beliefs: It is better to idle for in order to: Save gas: 4.7 minutes Prevent pollution: minutes Prevent vehicle wear: 5.7 minutes Over 80% of respondents held inaccurate/outdated beliefs about idling. Table 2. Projected savings in CO2 and fuel use associated with a reduction in unnecessary idling CO2 Emissions Fuel Consumption Annual per person consumption % of idlers in population Annual per person emissions (lbs) Annual US emissions (MMt) (gallons) Warming 68% Annual US consumption (billion gallons) Waiting 46% Total

23 Low-Hanging Fruit Standby Power 5-7% of Average U.S. Household Electricity Use Million Tons of CO 2 Example: Large-Screen TV in Standby = Fridge Options: General and Targeted Information Campaign, Subsidy for Power Strips and Meters, Tech Requirements Assumption: 33% Reduction in Standby Power Use Potential Savings: Million Tons of CO 2, $2-$3 Billion Total Household Savings Cost to Government: $214 Million ($10-$13/ton) Nt Net: ~$2-$3 $2$3 Billion Savings 23

24 Effect of Speed on Fuel Consumption Fuel consumption generally increases at above mph due to increased aerodynamic drag. Every 5 mph over 55 is ~ $.20 per gallon increase in gas prices. Drag increases with the square of velocity (matter of physics, not opinion) tion. e Fuel Consumpt Relativ Speed (mph) 24

25 The Justice or Equity Problem Income Disparity % Living in Poverty in US - Many Others with Limited Resources - Global Disparities - Substantial Energy Price Increases from Cap-and-Trade Implications - Political i l Viability - Efficacy - Distributive ib ti Justice 25

26 AP Proposal Equity Offsets: Complementary Tool Private Equity Offset Market - Identify Efficiencies - Calculate Emissions Reductions (tpy) - Verify - Bundle and Sell 26

27 Conclusion Interdisciplinary Research Individual and Household Sector Opportunities 27