ISO New England Overview and Regional Update

Transcription

1 J U N E 1 9, W A T E R B U R Y, C T ISO New England Overview and Regional Update CBIA s Annual Environmental & Energy Conference Eric Johnson D I R E C T O R, E X T E R N A L A F F A I R S

2 What are the Predominant Energy Resources in New England Today? 1. Natural-gas-fired generation 2. Nuclear power 2

3 What Were the Predominant Energy Resources a Decade Ago? 1. Nuclear power 2. Oil-fired generation 3

4 What are the Likely Energy Resources to Power New England in the Future? 1. Natural-gas-fired generation 2. Nuclear power 3. Renewable sources of energy 4. Energy efficiency 4

5 Who Decides Which Resources Get Developed? Competitive Markets Companies that invest in energy resources in the region s competitive wholesale electricity markets Generation resources Demand-response resources Merchant transmission Policymakers States set policies that promote certain types of resources Energy efficiency Clean energy resources Non- or zero-carbon-emitting resources Renewable energy resources 5

6 Who is ISO New England, and What is Our Role? Not-for-profit corporation created in 1997 to oversee New England s restructured electric power system Regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Regional Transmission Organization Independent of companies doing business in the market No financial interest in companies participating in the market Major responsibilities: Reliable operation of the electric grid Administer wholesale electricity markets Plan for future system needs 6

7 What is the Size of New England s Wholesale Electricity Market? 6.5 million households and businesses; population 14 million 350+ generators 8,000+ miles of high-voltage transmission lines (115 kv and above) 13 interconnections to electricity systems in New York and Canada 32,000+ megawatts (MW) of supply and 2,000+ MW of demand resources 28,130 megawatts all-time peak demand, set on August 2, buyers and sellers in the region s wholesale electricity marketplace $5 billion in transmission investment since 2002; another $6 billion planned over 5 years $5 billion total energy-market value in

8 New England is Not an Energy Island Transmission system is tied to neighboring power systems in the U.S. and Eastern Canada: New York (9 ties) Hydro Québec (2 ties) New Brunswick (2 ties) New York (1985) Hydro Québec (1986/1990) 11 New Brunswick 12 (1970s) 13 (2007)

9 We are Part of the Eastern Interconnection 9

10 Transmission Projects to Maintain Reliability are Progressing Regionwide $5.3 billion invested since 2002, $5.9 billion on the horizon 1. Southwest CT Phases I & II 2. NSTAR 345 kv Project, Phases I & II 3. Northwest Vermont 4. Northeast Reliability Interconnect 5. Monadnock Area New England East-West Solution a. Greater Springfield Reliability Project b. Greater Rhode Island Reliability Project 3 9 c. Interstate Reliability Project d. Greater Hartford/Central Connecticut 7. Southeast Massachusetts a. Short-term upgrades b. Long-term Lower SEMA Project 8. Maine Power Reliability Program 6a 6d 6c a In service Under construction Under study 9. Vermont Southern Loop 10.Merrimack Valley/North Shore Reliability 1 6b 7b Source: RSP Transmission Project Listing, March 2013; (does not include concept projects) 10

11 State Growth-Rate Projections % Projected Annual Energy Growth Rate % Projected Annual Summer Peak Growth Rate Regional Average 1.1% Regional Average 1.4% CT ME MA NH RI VT 0 CT ME MA NH RI VT 11

12 Demand Resources in New England 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Enrollment in ISO programs prior to start of FCM FCM* MW 2,000 1,500 1, MA, 1121 VT, 176 RI, 216 NH, 104 ME, 454 CT, / /17: Total DR cleared in FCAs 1 7 (New and Existing); Real-Time Emergency Generation capped at 600 MW. 12

13 Energy Efficiency is a Priority for New England Billions spent over the past few years; more on the horizon Approximately $1 billion invested from 2008 to 2010 Ranking of state EE efforts by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy: Massachusetts 1 Vermont 5 Connecticut 6 Rhode Island 7 New Hampshire 18 Maine 25 ISO estimates $5.7 billion to be invested in EE from 2015 to

14 Energy Efficiency (EE) is a Priority in New England Recent state EE spending and electric energy savings, $1.4 Billion = State EE Spending Energy Reduction = 3,905 GWh Peak Reduction = 549 MW 14

15 Energy-Efficiency Forecast Lower Peak-Demand Growth, Level Energy Demand New England: Summer 90/10 Peak (MW) New England: Annual Energy (GWh) RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF RSP12 RSP12-FCM RSP12-FCM-EEF Source: ISO New England 2013 EE Forecast 15

16 Natural Gas has Become the Dominant Fuel for Power Generation in New England Existing Generation Natural gas has largely displaced oiland coal-fired generation Renewable Energy 13% Pumped storage 1% Coal 3% Oil <1% Proposed Capacity Natural gas is the fuel of choice for new capacity and gas-fired generators will be needed to balance variable energy resources Other 6% Nuclear 31% Natural gas 52% Wind 38% Natural gas 56% Energy by Fuel Type, 2012 ISO Generator Interconnection Queue (April 2013) 16

17 Power Plant Emissions have Declined with Changes in the Fuel Mix Reduction in Aggregate Emissions (ktons/yr) Year NO x SO 2 CO , ,959 % Reduction, % 71% 11% Reduction in Average Emission Rates (lb/mwh) Year NO x SO 2 CO % Reduction, % 73% 16% Source: April 24, 2013 PAC Presentation: 2011 ISO New England Electric Generator Air Emissions Report 17

18 Wholesale Electricity Prices Track Natural Gas Prices Electric Energy ($/MWh) Fuel 8 ($/MMBtu) Wholesale Electricity at New England Hub (Real-Time LMP) Natural Gas 18

19 Wholesale Electricity Prices Declined over the Past Five Years with Drop in Natural Gas Prices $16 $14 $ $10 $ Billion $8 $ $4 $ $ Capacity Ancillary Energy 19

20 Forward Capacity Market Auction Results Auction Commitment Period FCA /2011 Total Capacity Acquired (MW) Capacity Required (MW) Excess Capacity (MW) New Demand Resources (MW) New Supply (MW) 34,077 32,305 1,772 1, Clearing Price ($/kw-month) $4.50 Floor price Prorated Price ($/kw-month) $4.25 FCA / ,283 32,528 4, ,157 $3.60 Floor price $3.12 FCA / ,996 31,965 5, ,670 $2.95 Floor price $2.54* FCA / ,501 32,127 5, $2.95 Floor price $2.52* FCA / ,918 33,200 3, $3.21 Floor price $2.86 FCA / ,309 33,456 2, $ 3.42 Floor price $3.13 FCA / ,220 32,968 3, $3.150 Floor price $ NEMA/Boston ROP: $2.744 Maine: $2.744 CT: $2.883 N/B: $ * Prorated price in Maine is $2.47/kW-month and $2.34/kW-month for FCAs 3 and 4, respectively. 20

21 Generator Proposals in the ISO Queue Approximately 5,000 MW By Type By State Pumpedstorage hydro 1% Hydro 0% Biomass 4% Oil 0% Landfill gas 1% Solar 0% MA, 2,083, 40% VT, 173, 3% RI, 28, 1% Wind 38% NH, 275, 5% Natural gas 56% ME, 1,171, 23% CT, 1,445, 28% Source: ISO Generator Interconnection Queue (April 2013) 21

22 Region Experiencing Growth of Solar and Other Distributed Generation (DG) About 2,000 MW of DG anticipated across New England by 2020 Solar (PV) will likely be the dominant DG technology 250 MW installed by end of 2012 About 125 MW in 2012 alone VT, RI, ME have DG programs without specific solar goals Approximate Solar Goal (MW) MA 2020 CT 2022 NH

23 States Seek Renewable Energy Renewable targets to increase significantly over the next decade Renewable targets as a % of Energy in New England (2020) 18% Renewable targets projected to increase from 10% in 2010 to 18% in 2020 Adding Energy Efficiency increases target to 30% 18% of total New England energy in 2020 is equivalent to: 9,400 MW of wind capacity, or 82% Energy from state renewable targets Energy from other sources 3,300 MW of biomass capacity Proposed renewable projects in New England: ~3,000 MW Primarily wind 2012 ISO New England Inc. 23

24 States Set Renewable Portfolio Standards 25% RPS as a percentage of estimated electricity use in % 15% 10% 10% 11% 15% 16% 20% 5% 0% ME NH MA RI CT 24

25 New England has Significant Wind Potential Population and electric demand are concentrated along the coast in central and southern New England 12,000 MW of onshore and offshore wind potential Preliminary screening eliminated wind sites near urban areas and sensitive geographic locations (e.g., Appalachian Trail) Transmission will be required to connect potential wind resources to load centers in New England Electricity Demand Wind zones 25

26 Developers are Proposing Renewable, Low- and Non-Carbon-Emitting Resources Hydro Wind Biomass Landfill gas Fuel cell Nuclear 26

27 On- and Off-shore Transmission Proposals Vying to Move Renewable Energy to New England Load Centers f From Newfoundland & Labrador Québec i New Brunswick a c e 5 Nova Scotia j b h g Representative Projects and Concept Proposals New York d a. Northern Pass Hydro Quebec/Northeast Utilities b. Northeast Energy Link Bangor Hydro/National Grid c. Green Line New England ITC d. Bay State Offshore Wind Transmission System Anbaric Transmission e. Northeast Energy Corridor Maine/New Brunswick f. Muskrat Falls/Lower Churchill Newfoundland and Labrador (Nalcor) and Nova Scotia (Emera) g. Maine Yankee Greater Boston h. Maine Greater Boston i. Northern Maine New England j. Plattsburgh, NY New Haven, VT Note: These projects are NOT reliability projects, but ISO New England s role is to ensure the reliable interconnection of these types of projects. 27

28 New England s Strategic Planning Initiative is Focused on Developing Solutions to the Top Five Challenges Confronting the Region 1. Resource Performance and Flexibility 2. Increased Reliance on Natural Gas-Fired Capacity 3. Retirement of Generators 4. Integration of a Greater Level of Variable Resources 5. Alignment of Markets with Planning 28

29 Challenges Facing the Region 1. CAUTION Heavy Dependence on Natural Gas 2. EXIT AHEAD Potential Power Plant Retirements 3. CONSTRUCTION ZONE Balancing Renewable Resources and Reliability 29

30 For More Information 30

31 For more information: ISO Training ISO Express data portal ISO to Go mobile app For iphone and Android 31

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