Comparative Analysis of Risk Perception between Nuclear and Coal Powers in China

Transcription

1 LOGO Comparative Analysis of Risk Perception between Nuclear and Coal Powers in China Huang Lei School of Environment Nanjing University P. R. China

2 Introduction Table 1 Electric power capacity changes in China (Wu, 2005) Year Capacity/GW Total Thermal Hydro Nuclear

3 CO2 Coal Power plant NOX SO2

4 Unfamiliar Nuclear Power plant Dreadful Potentially Catastrophic Uncontrollable

5 Aims Explore the determining factors that affect individual risk perceptions to nuclear and coal powers. Policy implications for Chinese government. Compare WTPs of risk reduction of various groups.

6 Map of Lianyungang City with Xinhai Coal Power plant and Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant site

7 Methods Demographic Variables Sex Residence condition Employment Educational Attainment Age

8 5 point Scale of risk perception difference Risk perception of nuclear power much higher than that of coal power Risk perception of nuclear power a little higher than that of coal power The same Risk perception of nuclear power a little lower than that of coal power Risk perception of nuclear power much lower than that of coal power

9 Sex Age 60 3 Results Table 2.1 Demographic Data on the Comparison of Risk Perception between Nuclear and Coal Powers Risk perception N Frequency difference Mean # SD Male Female % 47% 17% 52% 22% 5% 3% 1% *p<.05; ** p<.01; Note: Factor score was normalized * Factor Mean

10 Table 2.2 Demographic Data on the Comparison of Risk Perception between Nuclear and Coal Powers N Frequency Risk perception difference Mean # SD Factor Mean Educational attainment Elementary school 6 2% Junior high 30 10% High school % College 60 20% * University 81 27% Postgraduate 12 4% ** *p<.05; ** p<.01; Note: Factor score was normalized.

11 Table 2.3 Demographic Data on the Comparison of Risk Perception between Nuclear and Coal Powers N Frequency Risk perception difference Mean # SD Factor Mean Employment Officer 30 10% Enterprise employee 81 27% Self-employed person 54 18% Students % Unemployed 12 4% Housewife/others 12 4%

12 Revenue Total Table 2.4 Demographic Data on the Comparison of Risk Perception between Nuclear and Coal Powers <5000 Residence >50000 Tourist (short) Immigrant (middle) Native resident (long) All respondents N Frequency 49% 23% 19% 6% 3% 20% 18% 62% 100% Risk perception difference Mean # SD Factor Mean

13 Multivariate Analysis Factors Trust in Government Risk perception Acceptability Benefit Perception

14 Table 3. Intercorrelations between factors Factor All respondents(n=300) Ⅰ.Risk Perception difference Correlation Coefficient * 0.133* 0.170** Ⅱ. Benefit perception Correlation Coefficient * ** Ⅲ. Trust in government Correlation Coefficient 0.133* ** * Ⅳ. acceptability Correlation Coefficient 0.170** * ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level * Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level

15 Table 4. Regression Model for " risk perception difference between nuclear and coal power" (independent) Variable B SE Beta t All respondents (n=300), R=0.25 (constant) Ⅱ. Benefit perception Ⅲ. Trust in government * Ⅳ. acceptability ** ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level * Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level

16 WTP ~ The WTP items were on a 16-point scale (1: 200 RMB, 16: >3000 RMB, 200 RMB as grads 2800~3000 >3000

17 Figure 2 Comparison WTPs of Coal and Nuclear Power with Demographic Analysis

18 Discussion For the policy maker Chinese government act an important role in risk perception Improve public knowledge and interesting Need well designed risk communication compensation level for different groups

19 LOGO