For which applications/questions will the IDSS be used?

Transcription

1 139 Integrated Decision Support System 付属資料 3

2 140 For which applications/questions will the IDSS be used? General: CONSERVING and PROTECTING the COASTAL ENVIRONMENT Regulating aquaculture/mariculture activities Enhancing MPAs; Proposing better MPA locations Reducing sediment and nutrient loadings (e.g., by reforestation) Mitigating climate change impacts Increased temperature Sea level rise Typhoons Storm surges Seawater intrusion Changes in water quality Degradation/destruction of coastal habitats

3 The CECAM IDSS Concept (Desktop) 141 Damage Potential Maps Land use/land cover data Socio-economic Data Images and Base maps Quantum GIS Database Spatial Analysis Geovisualization Scenario and Consensus Building CCMS/TOMAS Data UP DGE GeoServer Other Monitoring Data & Simulation Results Desktop IDSS 付属資料 3

4 The CECAM IDSS Concept (Network) 142 UP DGE GeoServer Network IDSS Meetings Consultations Workshops CCMS/TOMAS Data Monitoring Data & Simulation Results Field Investigations Image Analysis Numerical Modelling Laboratory Experiments and other Japanese Univs.

5 Questions and DSS Modes? More Complex Questions 143 Simpler Questions Desktop DSS Network DSS Can be operated and used by stakeholders themselves Stakeholders + experts 付属資料 3

6 IDSS Modes and Tools Results of CECAM studies Hydrodynamic + WQ models Hydrologic + WQ models Groundwater + WQ models Ecological models Climate models 144 Damage Potential Maps (Environmental Sensitivity) Scenario Desktop DSS GIS - Geodatabase - Spatial analysis - Visualization *Consider also the case of minimal data availability Network DSS Remote Sensing Environmental valuation (economics) Multiple aspects! Multiple scales! Connectivity!

7 How to effectively reduce these? Terrestrial sediments Effluents from mariculture Nutrients from built up areas Bolinao IDSS 145 Consider socio-economic development, climate change, etc. 付属資料 3

8 146 Modeling and assessment Subgroup Study Sites Yaeyama Islands (subtropical reference sites) Bolinao/Santiago Island area, Lingayen Gulf, Agno River watershed Laguna lake, Pasig river and Manila bay Puerto Galera and Verde Island Passage Boracay Banate Bay, Guimaras Strait, Jalaur River Watershed Target environmental issues to be addressed: High water temperature Sedimentation Groundwater discharge Aquacultures Hypoxia River discharge Groundwater discharge Urbanization Aquaculture Flooding Eutrophication Larval connectivity Beach erosion Beach erosion Multiple terrestrial stress connectivity Environmental stress gradient Naawan, Laguindingan Prestine (Control sites)

9 Laguna Lake IDSS Numerical Modeling Analysis Numerical merical sim simulation mu mula ulaaation using usin sin n Delf ng Delft-3D ft-3 3D Hydrodynamics Æ Water quality Dissolved ed O Oxygen xygen n : Pr Primary rimary rrim im mary indicator m indi indiica icatt of the carrying capacity of a water body Hydrodynamics mics s : si simulation imulation of the th non-steady flow and transport phenomenon resulting from o tidal and meteorological forcing. Circulation characteristics of the lake resulting from Æ morphology and various forcing factors Atmosphere The amount of oxygen contained in the water and defines the living conditions for oxygen-requiring (aerobic) aquatic organisms. Currents San Juan River 147 Waves Water Marikina River Marikina Sub-basin Solar radiation Thermal River Discharge Heating 23 Sub-basin River Discharges Light Intensity Accrual Export BOD, DO, NH4, NO3 Laguna Lake Rosario Reaeration Mangahan Weir Floodway Density effects Napindan HCS Photosynthesis Manila Nutrient and Pasig River Bay sediment transport Waste Load Direct Lake Rainfall Wind Napindan Channel Bathymetry Geometry Fisheries structures Dissolved Meteorological forcing Sediment characteristics Oxygen Degassing Nitrification Groundwater Interaction (Excess / Deficit: uncertainties) Algae Algae Sediment Oxygen Demand Respiration and abiotic oxidation Inorganic matter Sediment Organic matter Power Generation Industrial Cooling Domestic Water Supply Irrigation Lake Evaporation Laguna Lake Water Balance Components 付属資料3 Water Quality Modeling Components

10 Impact of Aquaculture Structures x WITH Energy Aquaculture Aquaculture Structure Distribution m2/s2 8 WITHOUT Aquaculture 0.05 Laguna Lake Aquaculture Industry 148 Velocity 0 m/s Laguna Lake aquaculture industry accounts for approximately 40% of the total fish production through aquaculture in Philippines. Aquaculture structures occupy nearly 150 km2 (17%) of the total area of the Laguna Lake. Aquaculture operations significantly affect lake hydrodynamics (flow resistance) and metabolism (detritus matter and grazing).

11 Impact of Water Resource Use Management Scenario: 400 mld Domestic Water Supply Project Metro Manila is bound to experience water crisis unless the government finds more sources of raw water soon.. (Manila Times) 149 Metro Manila water demand already exceeded current capacity for supply! Solution??? Other dam water sources will be available only in year 2016! LAGUNA LAKE 400 mld Domestic Water Supply Project How FEASIBLE??? 付属資料 3

12 Impact of Water Resource Use Management Scenario: 400 MLD Domestic Water Supply Project Impact on Current Circulation Impact on Seawater Intrusion For every 400 million liters per day abstraction rate: Lake water depth is expected to drop by 2-3 centimeters. 150 Lake current magnitude is expected to increase by 1 cm/s with sustained flow pattern. 30% increase in backflow rate (seawater intrusion) and a 3% drop in Pasig River outflow. Lake residence time is 9 days longer.

13 Conservation Scenario Simulation Conservation Scenario: 25% reduction and 100% increase in waste load Fish kills have become pronounced over the recent years causing severe losses in the fish pen industry!!! 151 Laguna Lake has long served as Competing and conflicting a receptacle of both solid and demands for water use have worsen liquid waste of Metro Manila! the problem! Solution??? Waste water projects and strict policies for lake conservation 25% reduction/100% increase in waste load How Effective? How Serious??? 付属資料 3

14 Conservation Scenario Simulation Comparison of water quality simulation results for dissolved oxygen for different scenario configurations (a) existing condition (b) 25% reduction in waste load (c) doubled waste load input. a b c SURFACE Unit: mg/l 0 7 BOTTOM Unit: mg/l 0

15 153 付属資料 3

16 154 Thank you