Summary of Nelson City Land Demand and Capacity June 2017

Transcription

1 Summary f Nelsn City Land Demand and Capacity June 2017 NATIONAL POLICY STATEMENT ON URBAN DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY (NPS-UDC) The Natinal Plicy Statement n Urban Develpment Capacity requires cuncils t ensure that at any ne time there is sufficient develpment capacity and that enugh land shuld be prvided t meet husing and business demand. This shuld be assessed at least every three years and shuld als assess demand and capacity fr different types f husing and different types f business land. Shrt term capacity, t meet demand expected within the next three years, must be feasible, zned and serviced with develpment infrastructure. Medium term capacity, t meet demand expected between three and ten years, must be feasible, zned and either serviced with develpment infrastructure, r its develpment infrastructure is identified in the Lng Term Plan. Lng term capacity, t meet demand expected between ten and thirty years, must be feasible, identified in relevant plans and strategies (but nt necessarily zned), and the develpment infrastructure t supprt it must be identified in the Infrastructure Strategy. Feasible means that the develpment is cmmercially viable, taking int accunt the current likely csts, revenue and yield f develping. Develpment infrastructure means netwrk infrastructure fr water supply, wastewater, strmwater and land transprt. T factr in the prprtin f feasible develpment capacity that may nt be develped, cuncils with a Medium- r High-Grwth Urban Area within their bundaries shall als prvide an additinal margin f feasible develpment capacity ver and abve prjected demand f at least 20% in the shrt and medium term and 15% in the lng term. Nelsn City includes the Nelsn Urban Area which is defined as Medium-Grwth.

2 SUMMARY OF NELSON S RESIDENTIAL CAPACITY Sufficient shrt-term capacity fr husing demand - cnfirmed Medium-term capacity fr husing demand - likely t be cnfirmed as sufficient by further feasibility assessments but will depend n 2018 LTP decisins t ensure capacity is serviced Lng-term capacity fr husing demand - zned capacity is cnfirmed, serviced capacity will depend n 2018 Infrastructure Strategy, but the feasibility f that capacity needs t be cnfirmed and may nt be sufficient Nelsn has sufficient develpment capacity t meet shrt-term demand (next three years) fr husing. Based n current NRMP zning and prpsed Lng Term Plan infrastructure prjects, Nelsn will have sufficient develpment capacity t meet medium-term demand fr husing land (next ten years), as lng as 63% f that capacity (2,870 dwellings) is cmmercially feasible. Preliminary assessments suggests feasible develpment capacity fr 2,300 dwellings and further assessment f greenfield grwth areas is underway. Hwever, Cuncil has the pprtunity t review zning as part f the Nelsn Plan, and als has the pprtunity t review the timing and lcatin f infrastructure prjects in the 2018 Lng Term Plan. Cuncil may chse t priritise grwth in areas that are currently nt zned r serviced, based n ther factrs such as yield/cst ratis fr infrastructure investment, cmmercial feasibility, develper intentins, dwelling types, strategic utcmes, and crdinatin with TDC planning. Nelsn will have sufficient lng-term capacity fr husing nly if all currently zned areas have infrastructure servicing identified in the LTP r Infrastructure Strategy, and nly if all that capacity is cnfirmed as being cmmercially feasible. Feasibility assessments f future grwth areas is underway but, based n Auckland Cuncil s experience, it is unlikely that all plan-enabled land will be feasible. This may mean Cuncil needs t cnsider hw the Nelsn Plan can enable mre residential capacity, either thrugh zning new land r allwing higher density.

3 Residential Demand: 2,870 residential units by 2028 and a further 2,810 by 2048, including additinal margin 5,680 in ttal by 2048, including additinal margin Based n Statistics NZ Medium Series Ppulatin Prjectins (February 2017), there will be demand fr an additinal 2,390 residential units in Nelsn between July 2017 and July 2028 (11 years). With the additinal 20% abve the prjected demand, capacity fr 2,870 residential units is required by This capacity needs t be feasible, zned and either serviced with develpment infrastructure, r develpment infrastructure identified in the Lng Term Plan. Between 2028 and 2048, there is prjected demand fr an additinal 2,440 residential units. Under the NPS-UDC, an additinal 15% is required, meaning capacity fr 2,810 residential units must be prvided. This capacity must be feasible, identified in relevant plans and strategies, and the develpment infrastructure must be identified in the Infrastructure Strategy but it des nt necessarily need t be zned. Nte: The demand prjectins are subject t change as new infrmatin and guidance is received. MBIE guidance n the NPS-UDC recmmend including demand fr visitr accmmdatin (hliday huses) which has nt yet been assessed. Cuncil may als chse t augment the Statistics NZ prjectins but MBIE guidance advises explaining the ratinale f that assessment in a way that can be traced and audited. Nte: these demand prjectins are based n the urban area units within Nelsn City nly and exclude prjectins fr the rural Whangama area unit (see the Rural sectin) and fr urban area units within Tasman District. Analysis f husing preferences and demgraphic changes suggest Nelsn needs mre tw-bedrm dwellings t meet prjected grwth in ne and tw persn husehlds. There is als a need fr affrdable husing t retain and attract wrking-age residents and t meet emplyment demand as the wrkfrce ages.

4 Residential Capacity: Feasible, serviced, and zned capacity fr at least 2,300 residential units Zned capacity fr a further 2,300 residential units which will be serviced in the current Lng Term Plan but their feasibility and yield are still t be cnfirmed Zned capacity fr a further 1,100 residential units but their feasibility and servicing requirements are still t be assessed 5,700 in ttal zned capacity, including inner city residential Ptential extra capacity in land currently zned as rural but the yield and feasibility f thse areas needs t be assessed Nelsn currently has capacity fr 2,300 residential units n land which is feasible, zned, and serviced (althugh land develpment and internal cnnectins are still required). This estimate cnsists f: 392 vacant residential sectins 425 backyard infill ptential (current trend is 20 per year) 1,300 units n land cnsented r prpsed fr subdivisin r redevelpment (incl. Special Husing Areas) 210 brwnfield redevelpment ptential (based n current trend f 7 units per year) Nelsn has capacity fr apprximately anther 3,400 residential units n land which is zned but is nt yet cnfirmed as being feasible and/r serviced. This includes ptential capacity fr a further 394 residential units in the inner city centre and fringe (106 units are already cnsented r prpsed). The servicing status f different grwth areas may change as part f Lng Term Plan decisins as different areas are priritised fr infrastructure prjects. Lng Term Plan decisins may cnsider factrs such as yield/cst ratis, develper intentins, dwelling types, strategic utcmes, and crdinatin with TDC planning. In additin, there are apprximately 360 residential dwellings with 4 r mre bedrms but nly ne usual resident and 1,530 residential dwellings with 4 r mre bedrms and tw usual residents. Sme f these 1,890 dwellings culd have ptential fr creating a secnd unit, if a secnd kitchen was permitted (as prpsed in the Residential Zne paper). This capacity has nt been included in current capacity estimates and current trends have nt been assessed.

5 SUMMARY OF NELSON S BUSINESS CAPACITY Sufficient shrt, medium and lng term capacity fr retail demand zned and serviced capacity is cnfirmed and feasibility likely t be cnfirmed by stakehlder cnsultatin Sufficient shrt, medium and lng term capacity fr cmmercial ffice demand zned and serviced capacity is cnfirmed and feasibility likely t be cnfirmed by stakehlder cnsultatin Shrt, medium and lng term capacity fr industrial demand zned and serviced capacity is cnfirmed but feasibility assessment is likely t indicate that Richmnd West s capacity is mre feasible and bth Cuncils will need t be ensure sufficient serviced capacity in Richmnd West t meet t prjected demand Demand fr business land has been estimated by Prperty Ecnmics using a Business Land Demand Frecasting Mdel. The mdel incrprates natinal and reginal ecnmic and demgraphic trends t prject emplyment grwth by industry and land requirements by activity (industrial, ffice, retail and cmmercial services). The mdel distributes the prjected grwth based n zned capacity in settlements acrss Nelsn and Tasman. The tw regins perate and functin as a single ecnmic market with heavily cnnected ecnmies and crss bundary business activity flws, and need t be cnsidered as an integrated ecnmic unit fr lng term planning purpses. Prperty Ecnmics cncluded that there is enugh business land prvisin and that this prvisin is well lcated frm a business lcatin perspective. Cuncil may want t ensure the prvisin is cmmercially viable t develp and identify any hindrances t develpment (i.e. infrastructure) that may require crdinatin with develpment pprtunity. The Prperty Ecnmics reprt als nted that the land requirements derived in the mdel d nt autmatically trigger the need fr rezning business land because large amunts f existing business land prvisin in Nelsn and Tasman is vacant r underutilised. Significant capacity als already exists in vacant industrial and cmmercial buildings, and thrugh increasing develpment and land use efficiency by redevelping underutilised brwnfield sites acrss the regins. The Prperty Ecnmics Mdel frecasts demand t 2038 but cncludes that these prjectins are likely t remain valid ut t 2048 because f declining rates f ppulatin grwth, which is driven by the ageing ppulatin. Nte: The Business Land Demand Frecasting Mdel currently uses the Statistics NZ Medium Series Ppulatin Prjectins (February 2017). Cuncil may chse t augment the Statistics NZ prjectins but MBIE guidance advises explaining the ratinale f that assessment in a way that can be traced and audited.

6 Industrial Demand: 11.4 hectares by 2028 and a further 2.6 hectares by 2038, including additinal margin (14 hectares in ttal) Based n Statistics NZ Medium Series Ppulatin Prjectins (February 2017), the Prperty Ecnmics Business Land Demand Frecasting Mdel estimates that there will be demand fr 12 hectares f industrial land in Nelsn by 2038 (and 12 hectares in Richmnd). Mst f this demand is prjected t ccur in the shrt-term. Building cnsents fr factries, industrial and strage buildings indicate an average grwth rate f 2.5 hectares a year ver the last ten years. In the medium and lng term, demand fr industrial land is prjected t stabilise, alng with industrial emplyment numbers, and emplyment in primary sectrs and manufacturing is prjected t decrease. As with residential demand, the NPS-UDC requires Nelsn t have capacity fr 20% abve the prjected demand fr the next ten years, and 15% abve demand prjected fr the fllwing twenty years, meaning a ttal f 14 hectares is needed. Under a high-grwth scenari, Nelsn is prjected t have demand fr 13 hectares f industrial land in the shrt-term and a ttal f 20 hectares ver the next thirty years (with demand fr 19 hectares in Richmnd by 2048). Industrial Capacity: hectares in Nelsn, plenty in Richmnd deferred zne Nelsn currently has 310 hectares f industrial zned land: 157 hectares in Tahuna 71 hectares at the Prt 67 hectares in Stke (Nayland Suth and Wakatu Industrial Estate) 15 hectares in Vanguard/St Vincent, adjacent t Inner City -Fringe A 2015/16 study f Nelsn s industrial capacity cncluded there was 7 hectares f vacant industrial zne land, 1.8 hectares in land with vacant buildings, and apprximately 15 hectares f underutilised land which has ptential fr develpment (mst f the latter is lcated in Tahuna). There was a further 6 hectares with develpment planned r underway and mst f this land is still vacant. Further wrk is needed t understand the cmmercial viability f Nelsn s industrial capacity. Richmnd has sufficient capacity fr bth Richmnd and Nelsn s industrial grwth, with a large area (apprx. 90 hectares) in Richmnd West zned as deferred light industrial. The NPS-UDC requires NCC and TDC t cperate and agree n the prvisin f sufficient, feasible develpment capacity.

7 Cmmercial Office Demand: 8.6 hectares by 2028 and a further 3.2 hectares by 2038, including additinal margin (11.8 hectares in ttal) Based n Statistics NZ Medium Series Ppulatin Prjectins (February 2017), the Prperty Ecnmics Business Land Demand Frecasting Mdel estimates that there will be demand fr 10 hectares f land fr at grade cmmercial ffice space by As the majrity (7 hectares) is prjected t be in Central Nelsn, develpment is likely t be multi-strey rather than at grade. The NPS-UDC requires Nelsn t have capacity fr 20% abve the prjected demand fr the next ten years, and 15% abve demand prjected fr the fllwing twenty years, meaning a ttal f 11.8 hectares is needed. Cmmercial Office Capacity: Sufficient vertical capacity anticipated but feasibility and servicing requirements are still t be assessed Nelsn currently has 80 hectares f land in the inner city and suburban cmmercial znes which includes retail, cmmercial and ffice activity. There is currently a 7% vacancy rate in Nelsn s cmmercial ffice space. Based n the current average heights f buildings in the inner city centre and fringe and current maximum height rules, there is sufficient vertical capacity in these znes fr future ffice space in Nelsn. Half the buildings in these znes have an average height belw 6 metres, with current maximum heights allwing 15 metres in inner city centre and 12 metres in inner city fringe. Further wrk is needed t understand the cmmercial viability and infrastructure requirements f Nelsn s cmmercial ffice capacity. Maximum height 15m

8 Maximum height 12m Retail and Cmmercial Services Demand: 8.6 hectares by 2028 and a further 7.6 hectares by 2038, including additinal margin (16.2 hectares in ttal) Based n Statistics NZ Medium Series Ppulatin Prjectins (February 2017), the Prperty Ecnmics Business Land Demand Frecasting Mdel estimates there will be demand fr an additinal 7 hectares f land in Nelsn fr retail and cmmercial services by 2028 and a further 7 hectares by The NPS-UDC requires Nelsn t have capacity fr 20% abve the prjected demand fr the next ten years, and 15% abve demand prjected fr the fllwing twenty years, meaning a ttal f 16.2 hectares is needed. Retail and Cmmercial Services Capacity: apprximately 21 hectares Nelsn currently has 80 hectares f land in the inner city and suburban cmmercial znes which includes retail, cmmercial and ffice activity. Apprximately 14 hectares has ptential fr at-grade develpment althugh this includes land currently used fr private car parking: There is currently 2.6 hectares f vacant prperties in the inner city centre and fringe (excluding NCC carparks) and apprximately anther 3 hectares f vacant land larger than 500m2 n prperties with existing building(s). Mst f this land is used fr private car parking. These measures exclude large carparks (NCC, supermarkets, The Warehuse, Rutherfrd Htel). In the suburban cmmercial zne, there is 4.9 hectares f vacant prperties, including 1.2 hectares in Marsden Valley and 1.9 hectares in Ngwahatu Valley, and apprximately 3.5 hectares f vacant land larger than 500m2 n prperties with

9 existing building(s) (excluding large carparks, sme mtels and service statins, and McCashins brewery). There is currently a 14% vacancy rate in CBD retail space (12,400m2 GFA, equivalent t apprximately 2.4 hectares). In additin, there is capacity fr Large Frmat Retail n 5 hectares f industrial land in Quarantine Rd, Tahuna (this land was nt included in industrial land capacity estimates). RURAL Rural Demand: 110 dwellings by 2048 (129 with additinal margin) Based n Statistics NZ Medium Series Ppulatin Prjectins (February 2017), there will be demand fr an additinal 50 rural dwellings in the rural Whangama area unit between July 2017 and July 2028 (11 years), and then a further 60 rural dwellings by Between 2001 and 2013, there were an additinal 110 dwellings in the Whangama area unit (frm 270 t 380 dwellings) and an additinal 60 in ther parts f the rural zne in Nelsn (mstly Tdds Valley). The average rate f develpment since 2006 has been 7 dwellings a year in the rural zne. Rural Capacity: Sufficient capacity anticipated Nelsn has the fllwing areas f land in three rural zne categries: Rural: 21,741 hectares Rural Lw Density: 1,684 hectares Rural High Density: 258 hectares The develpment capacity f many f thse prperties is cnstrained by the fllwing factrs: Slpe greater than 25 degrees Land used fr extic frestry Significant Natural Areas Outstanding Natural Character r Landscapes If prperties with thse cnstraints are excluded, Nelsn has the fllwing amunts f land in the three rural zne categries: Rural: 4,005 hectares Rural Lw Density: 1,006 hectares Rural High Density: 187 hectares