Incomati Flood Risk and Water Use Management Project

Transcription

1 Incomati Flood Risk and Water Use Management Project Downstream impacts from a transboundary, climate resilient and socio economic perspective Charles Reeve : Technical Director, CRIDF

2 Description of the Project Area : Incomati River Basin Massintonto Uanetze Mazimechopes Three Phases to the Project: Incomati Basin 47,000 km 2 Phase 1 : Establish flood risk Phase I Project Area 4,500 km 2 Incomati Crocodile Sable Corumana Dam Moamba Major Dam Incomati model, provide indication of 500,000+ population in Lower Incomati flood risk management High demand for water infrastructure Illovo 5000 employees Tongaat 10,000 employees Phase 2 : Establish flood warning and flood management Estates 18,000 Ha cane Outgrowers 9,000 Ha cane system (can be used for water Major floods 1976, 1984, 2000 allocation, water management) 80% of pop below $2/day Phase 3 : Flood mitigation 50% of income from farming through large storage infrastructure

3 Phase 1 : Finding Lower Incomati Flood Risk Management (FRM) Client 1. Cooperation ARA-Sul Sell project benefits Ensure decision makers participate Benefits of Public Private Partnership MoU signed : three parties CRIDF Stakeholders Illovo Tongaat Bigger picture approach to flood risk management, support the outgrower/ poorer communities Flood Hazard 3. Bring stakeholders along the journey 11 Sep Flood Hydraulic Modelling Tool 04 Nov Feb 15 Build hydraulic model Gain confidence in model results Flood risk assessment 08 May15 Refine hydraulic model, improve calibration Define & simulate flood options 23 Jul 15 Economic analysis Flood Exposure FLOOD RISK Vulnerability

4 Phase 1 Conclusions\ Recommendations The Lower Incomati Basin is particularly vulnerability to climate change and transboundary management challenges : project is highly transboundary The majority of the population are poor and largely reliant on subsistence, making them particularly vulnerable to the increasing occurrence of water shocks transboundary approach will significantly increase no. of poorer communities having benefits, less vulnerability to floods\ also start building blocks for drought issues The use of a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), and results shows that expansion of outgrowers very worthwhile and in keeping principles of climate resilient, pro-poor development Indicator Net Present Value Benefit Cost Ratio External Rate of Return Flood Bund Location for Outgrowers Option S1 Flood Mechanism u/s of Tongaat Option S4 USD 2.1 Million USD 1.0 Million Comparison S1 > S S4 > S1 33% 42% S4> S1 The indicative CBA, indicate that both investments (S1 and S4) are economically and have significant economic benefit for ALL parties. Share the flood risk mutual benefits to all parties

5 PHASE 2 TRANSBOUNDARY Komati Water Basin Authority International Waters Incomati Catchment Management Agency ARA-Sul, DWS and Water Resources Branch / Ministry of Natural Resources and Energy (MNRE) DNA, EDM FLOOD FORECASTING 1a. Stakeholder influencing DWS TPTC MNRE 2D HYDRAULIC MODEL 1b. Stakeholder influencing Illovo DNA ARA-Sul Tongaat PHASE 2 TRANSBOUNDARY u/s stakeholders eg Sugar estates (Pure life) ANE (National Roads Dept) Tongaat flood design team Environment Dept Agricultural Dept Manhiça Municipality INGC (Disaster Management) INAM (Meteorological Institute) Railway Dept. Data collection - gaps Develop Rainfall runoff model Extent MIKE 11 model Develop Flood Forecast Model Prototype deployment Climate change scenario selection PHASE 3 DAM OPERATION Review of data/ studies Corumana dam operating rules analysis Moamba Major Dam analysis Draft dam operation framework 2. Real Time Flood Forecasting 4. Climate Change Scenarios 5. Dam Operation Framework 3. Detailed Flood Modelling, economic analysis Phase 1 Options 6. Technology Transfer, Capacity Building, Institutional support Process LiDAR data Extent model to SA border Update Mike 21 Model Model calibration and refinement Option scenario implementation Economic analysis Socio-economic including GESI Stakeholder identification Assessment of skill levels Draft training programme User Manual Preparation Setting up daily operations system Institutional Support

6 Expansion of the project : socio economic impacts Transboundary : Tri-Partite Technical Committee (TPTC) improve communication with member states Flood Forecasting System : South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique Climate Resilience : Utilise available water more efficiently, understand climate change on flood impacts Flood risk management climate resilience; factors for flood hydrograph, analysis of scenarios Pro-Poor Beneficiaries : Share the risks will benefit all parties including many poor communities Between 250,000 and 500,000 people within Lower Incomati for Mozambique - potentially more including SA, Swaziland Evolution of the Stakeholder Influence Key stakeholders very supportive include private sector Expand steering group from Sugar Estates, ARA-Sul and ANE to include Disaster Management (INGC), Agricultural Dept, and other member states DWS, DWA, DNA, Inkomati Usuthu Catchment Management Agency (IUCMA) etc