THE AIR POLLUTION SHOCK AND CHINA S RESPONSE

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1 THE AIR POLLUTION SHOCK AND CHINA S RESPONSE DR ALEX ENGLISH ABRUPT CHANGE IN CHINA S ENERGY PATH: Implications for China, Australia and the global climate Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies (VISES), Victoria University Thursday 26 June 2014 In January 2013 a thick smog blankets Beijing and northern China Covering 2.7 million km 2 Affecting >600 million people 1

2 Airpocalypse 空气末日 Airpocalypse 空气末日 Direct impact: flight cancellations, factory and school closures, transport restrictions and orders to stay home Fine particulates or PM2.5 exceeded 900 µg/m 3 in Beijing Levels >500 µg/m 3 have become increasingly common in China s cities WHO guideline for the maximum safe level is 25 µg/m3 for a 24 hour period and 10 µg/m3 on an annual basis In 2013, PM2.5 levels were five times WHO annual maximum level in 58 cities (official data) 2

3 Airpocalypse Lancet study estimated 500,000 premature deaths due to air pollution in China and another study 5 years off life expectancy Fine particulates penetrate lung and blood tissue lead to increased risks of pulmonary and cardiovascular disease and cancer rates Key polluters Coal power generators Industrial (steel, cement and brick plants) coal fired furnaces Rapid growth in private vehicles and freight Resolutely declare a war against pollution China's air pollution has accumulated over the long term, so we must be fully aware of the grim task of prevention work and persevere Premier Li Keqiang, 2014 Beijing s most prominent problem President Xi Jinping, 2014 China indeed is suffering from severe air pollution. The green economy is a must. Minister Xie Zhenhua, 2014 Beijing is nearing pollution levels no longer liveable for human beings. Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,

4 A delicate balancing act Seriously damaging health Causing significant direct and indirect economic costs Social protests and media criticism Political sensitivity of Beijing public s access to data State needs to maintain economic growth and ensure social and political stability, yet environment neglected Sources and drivers of air pollution 1. Sustained high rates of economic growth for >30 years 2. Rapid unprecedented urbanisation 3. Energy production and industrial use of low cost and abundant coal Government policy responses to move away from dirty polluting industry led economy have been strong and vocal but unevenly implemented and speed of growth and scale of challenges too great Ongoing implementation gaps because broader fiscal, political and economic reforms required Realisation that more needed to be done and much more urgently 4

5 Immediate response Immediate draft regulations released for public comment National 10 Measures by 2017 Phasing out coal fired plants and replacing with natural gas Phase out polluting vehicles (pre 2005) Establish mechanism for regional cooperation Real time AQ monitoring stations across cities and regions including PM2.5 Stronger commitment to changing energy mix of coal, renewables, gas and nuclear Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control ( ) Y1.7 trillion commitment 3 key regions: 京津冀 长三角 珠三角 Prosecuting environmental crimes easier Reformed local officials performance criteria so they are more accountable for air quality problems in their areas Increase industry assistance with clean technology Coal to gas for power, industrial furnaces & thermal heating plants Broaden monitoring network 5

6 Key AQ targets targets 10% reduction of PM10 in cities above prefecture level Annual targets for minimum number of good air days PM2.5 reductions for: Beijing Tianjin Hebei Province 25% Yangtze River Delta 20% Pearl River Delta 15% Annual average PM2.5 in Beijing <60μg /m3 New accountability systems for officials with city and provincial officials to sign target responsibility letters, include AQ in annual examinations. Significance Accelerate economic restructuring Social and political transformations Urban form Environmental Climate Energy transformation away from coal and towards gas and renewables 6

7 Is the air pollution shock a turning point? A Silent Spring moment? 2011: PM10 & PM2.5 enter Chinese lexicon Sever water pollution, contaminated soil & food contamination scandals Growing public disenchantment Public & media outcry with calls for immediate action Risks remain Air pollution levels unlikely to improve for at least a decade 7