The effect of dam regulation under climate change scenarios: analysis of changes in water availability in Europe

Transcription

1 The effect of dam regulation under climate change scenarios: analysis of changes in water availability in Europe Luis Garrote de Marcos & Alfredo Granados García Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) 1

2 INTRODUCTION RUNOFF Climate change Balance AVAILABILITY DEMANDS Storage regulating effect 2

3 OBJECTIVES To analyse the role of storage in surface water availability, to detect vulnerabilities and to assess adaptation measures 360 basins km 2 3

4 OBJECTIVES To analyse the role of storage in surface water availability, to detect vulnerabilities and to assess adaptation measures sub-basins Average surface km 2 HYDRO1K (USGS) dataset ICOLD World Register on Dams 4

5 METHODOLOGY INITIAL DATA Runoff and demands Current time slice: Climate change projections: Short term: Long term: climatic models 4 RCP scenarios RESULTS Potential water availability WAAPA model ANALYSIS Availability Vulnerability Adaptation 5

6 RUNOFF PROJECTION Simulation model PCRGLOBWB model Climatic models GFDL-ESM2NM HadGEM2-ES IPSL-CM5A-LR MIROC-ESM-CHEM NorESM1-M RCP scenarios RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 Simulation Given by: H. Winsemius L. Bouwer (DELTARES) Bias correction Adjustment to GDRC data Time slices of study: control ( ), short term ( ) and long term ( ) 6

7 Initial data World Bank database Domestic supply Industry Irrigation Geographical distribution: -Population density -Irrigation surface Domestic supply Industry Irrigation DEMAND PROJECTION Projection Regression RCP Projections of population and GPD 7

8 WAAPA MODEL WAAPA: Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis Local management Coordinated management 8

9 AVAILABILITY ANALYSIS (I) GFDL IPSL Future availability / Current availability The four RCP analyzed scenarios are presented looping HadGEM2 MIROC NorESM1 9

10 AVAILABILITY ANALYSIS (II) GFDL IPSL Comparison between the changes in runoff and the changes in availability The four RCP analyzed scenarios are presented looping HadGEM2 MIROC NorESM1 10

11 VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS DEMANDS/AVAILABILTY: Comparison of current and long term projection Model GFDL - RCP4.5 Historical Long term projection

12 ADAPTATION POLICY ANALYSIS (I) DEMANDS/AVAILABILITY: Comparison between projections with and without adaptation measures Model GFDL - RCP4.5 - Long term projection No adaptation measures Improved management 12

13 ADAPTATION POLICY ANALYSIS (II) DEMANDS/AVAILABILITY: Comparison between projections with and without adaptation measures Model GFDL - RCP4.5 - Long term projection No adaptation measures Improved governance 13

14 ADAPTATION POLICY ANALYSIS (III) DEMANDS/AVAILABILITY: Comparison between projections with and without adaptation measures Model GFDL - RCP4.5 - Long term projection No adaptation measures Management + Governance 14

15 CONCLUSIONS The results show that the balance between water availability and demands is threatened in some regions. Impacts of climate change on water availability are uncertain and heterogeneous among the different climatic models. However, it is possible to identify areas of Southern Europe and some areas of Central Europe highly populated and low regulated that are vulnerable. Improved water management and water governance may compensate adverse effects of climate on water availability. 15

16 ONGOING RESEARCH (I) RESPONSE OF THE SPANISH RESERVOIRS TO CLIMATE CHANGE Initial study: CEDEX climatic projections Sensitivity index (SI) Sensitivity Index (SI) = Availability Flow (SI) < 1 Storage volume / Mean flow 16

17 ONGOING RESEARCH (II) RESPONSE OF THE SPANISH RESERVOIRS TO CLIMATE CHANGE Initial study: PRUDENCE climatic projections Sensitivity index (SI) (SI) > 1 (SI) < 1 Storage volume / Mean flow 17

18 ONGOING RESEARCH (III) RESPONSE OF THE SPANISH RESERVOIRS TO CLIMATE CHANGE Initial study: PRUDENCE climatic projections Sensitivity index (SI) (SI) > 1 (SI) < 1 Storage volume / Mean flow 18

19 ONGOING RESEARCH (V) RESPONSE OF THE SOUTERN EUROPE RESERVOIRS TO CLIMATE CHANGE 19

20 Sensitivity Index (SI) ONGOING RESEARCH (V) RESPONSE OF THE SOUTERN EUROPE RESERVOIRS TO CLIMATE CHANGE (SI) = 1 Storage volume/mean annual flow (V/F) 20

21 Sensitivity Index (SI) Variability of sensitivity index is reduced for larger reservoir storage Reservoir storage attenuates the effects of climate change on availability Storage volume/mean annual flow (V/F) 21

22 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS To European Project BASE Bottom-up Climate Adaptation Strategies Towards a Sustainable Europe To Hessel Winsemius and Laurens Bouwer, from DELTARES, as they provided the simulation results of the PCRGLOBWB model. 22

23 COMITÉ FRANÇAIS DES BARRAGES ET RÉSERVOIRS Assemblée Générale et Symposium 2018 Chambéry, 25 Janvier 2018 Merci de votre attention Luis Garrote de Marcos & Alfredo Granados García & Andévalo Andalucía Water Authority 23