Nile Basin Decision Support System (NB DSS)

Transcription

1 Introduction to the Nile Basin Decision Support System (NB DSS) Abdulkarim H Seid NBI Secretariat

2 The Nile Basin Rwanda urundi Egypt Sudan South Sudan DR Congo Ethiopia Uganda Kenya Tanzania Basic Facts: Basin Area: 3.2 Mill km 2 Ca 250 Million people live in the basin; Ca 480 Million people in all riparian countries Shared by 11 countries Percent Basin Area by Country Percent of basin area in each riparian country Burundi, 0.44 DR Congo, 0.69 Egypt, 9.52 Uganda, 7.56 Eritrea, 0.81 Tanzania, 3.73 Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, 1.62 Rwanda, 0.65 South Sudan, 19.54

3 Rainfall distribution in the Nile Basin There is substantial variation in rainfall distribution in the basin Upstream parts of the basin receive annual average rainfall that ranges from mm; in some locations > 2000 mm Downstream parts of the basin have very little rainfall nearly totally dependent on Nile waters (irrigated agriculture is a must). Rainfall in upstream parts is hardly regular from season to season and from year to year Economies of most upstream countries are highly dependent on rainfall (rain-fed agriculture) highly exposed climate to drought and floods

4 Monthly average flow, BCM Monthly average flow, BCM River Flow estimates at key locations Monthly Average Flow for Blue Diem, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Min Max Monthly average flow for White Nile at Malakal ( ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Most rivers that originate in the Eastern Nile are highly seasonal About 70 percent of the annual flows are recorded in 3 4 months Harnessing the water resources that come in such a short time requires adequate storages

5 Major sub-basins and their flow contributions Annual Yield of Sub-basins (BCM) Rehad u/s, 1.43 Didndir, 3.01 Atbara, Bahr el Jebel outflow, Sobat at Mouth, Blue Nile at Diem, Key messages: Most of the river flow generated in the Eastern Nile Sub-basins There is strong variation of river flow from year to year Relative proportions of the flow contributions vary between wet and dry seasons

6 the Nile Basin Countries Rapid population growth Population of basin countries increased 4 fold between 1960 and 2010 Shrinking per capita water availability Source: World Bank; World Development Indicator database 6

7 the Nile Basin Countries Rapid population growth - By around 2050, close to 1 Billion people are expected to live in the Nile Basin countries - growing demands for water, food, energy, services,. -.

8 a basin of considerable untapped potential Potential for increased Storage dams capacities hydropower To > MW Potential for Irrigation increase by > 3 M ha Substantial untapped potential in the Nile Basin 8

9 Projected growth in storage dams and hp plants installed capacities Baseline Installed capacity of hp plants, (MW) Burundi DR Congo Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan Projected installed capacities of hp plants, 2050; MW Burundi DR Congo Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Tanzania 2014: 5600 MW 2050: ca MW Growth in Cumulative Storage Capacities of Dams (BCM) ( < 200 BCM) 2050 (> 400 BCM)

10 NBI products for cooperative water resources management Water Resources Analysis - Collaborative water supply and demand assessment - Strategic options for addressing growing water demand Water Resources Assessment - Actual Evapotranspiration, Rainfall (via satellite estimates) Regional river basin monitoring network State of the Nile River Basin Report (first report released in 2012) Nile Basin Water Resources Atlas Knowledge Management: - The Nile-IS ( - The NBI Library ( Policy instruments for fostering transboundary cooperation : - NBI Environment and Social Policy - NBI Wetland Strategy - NBI Climate Change Strategy - The NBI Environmental Flow Management Strategy 10

11 Nile Basin Regional Hydromet System Design Design based on regional issues geo-referenced in 13 specific issues by regions of the Nile Basin 11

12 Design Overview - Hydrometric Proposed Hydrometric Network Country Active Inactive New WQ Sed Total Burundi DRC Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Tanzania Uganda Total % of Total 86% 9% 5% 65% 56%

13 Design Overview - Meteorological Country Active Inactive New Total Burundi DRC Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Tanzania Uganda Total % of Total 71% 25% 4%

14 The Vision of the Nile Basin DSS Nile Basin DSS has been envisaged to be a common, computer-based platform for communication, information management, and analysis of Nile Basin water resources. Coupled with human resources development and institutional strengthening, it will provide a framework for sharing knowledge, understanding river system behavior, evaluating alternative development and management schemes, and supporting informed decision making from a regional perspective 14

15 The Nile Basin Decision Support System The Nile Basin Decision Support System is a comprehensive analytical framework that offers: - The software framework for storage, processing, interpretation and visualization of data - Suite of models for simulating river-lake/reservoir systems - Toolset for analyses of water resources problems, evaluate alternative scenarios - Suite of tools for generating information needed for decision making - Toolsets for collaborative decision making in water resources 15

16 Decision Support Systems for Transboundary Water Resources Management Nile Basin perspective Provide generic framework rather than customized solution Have a flexible architecture whereby different approaches for modeling can be employed Support modeling, scenario building and evaluation Support multi-objective optimization and tradeoff analysis facility Provide user extendable toolset for addressing specific issues; case of environmental, socio-economic objectives Provide transparent and simple facility for stakeholder dialogue in evaluation of scenarios Support collaboration and learning among riparian professionals Developed through involvement of riparians; process as important as final product 16

17 Nile Basin DSS: Key Components Data/information management system Time Series analysis toolkit Basic GIS functionality Integrated database Ensemble generator (for probabilistic analysis) Modeling System Water balance and allocation model Rainfall-runoff modeling tools Hydrodynamic modeling Soil erosion process model Crop water requirement Model linking/nesting tool Decision making/analysis tools Scenario management (including indicator calculation) Multi-objective optimization Economic analysis tools Multi-criteria analysis tool 17

18 DSS - Software Layout and Components DSS application Modeling Tools Database 18

19 NB Decision Support System Types of information it generates Basin hydrology and Changes Environmental, Social Economics Indicators Multi-Criteria Decision Matrix, tradeoffs, etc 19

20 NB DSS a lot more than hydrology Hydrology/Hydraulics Indicators of What matters DSS Toolset 20

21 Integrating environmental objectives in decision making A response function.. predicting fish = f(impoundment area,) DSS Script implementing response function Environmental indicators for each scenario 21

22 Key features of the NB DSS Generic system that can be Can be applied at different scales (at country level, regional/sub-regional levels) Other basins Multi-level user control: to provide a secure user environment Flexible/Expandable architecture: New modeling tools can be integrated without major change in system System functionality can be expanded through new add-ons Scripting through which users can extend available functionality or automate repetitive tasks 22

23 Indicator Definitions examples from DSS application in the Nile Basin Environmental Social 23

24 NB DSS: Development Process big-picture DSS Needs Assessment Priority focus areas agreed Needs Assessment and Conceptual Design Conceptual Design Key components of DSS and their features identified DSS development plan Terms of reference Development schedule and budget Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jun 2008 PSC Approval Detailed design, development, testing, training, applicatio Inception Release 1 Release 2 Release 3 Consolidati on May 2009 Nov 2010 Oct 2011 June 2012 (?) Oct 2012 Data Compilation and processing, Training, pilot application (national/regional) 24

25 Examples of DSS practical applications DSS licenses distributed to NBI countries Regional level: Used as the modeling framework for Nile Equatorial Lakes region multi-sector investment plan development Currently: in use in the development of integrated water resources management and development plan for the Baro- Akobo-Sobat basin; Currently: in use to estimate projected aggregated future water demands in the Nile Basin to address potential shortfalls in meeting future water demands 29.1 at Malakal upstream of the Sobat confluence % Sudd Bahr el Ghazal 0% at Mongalla Torrents 37% Lake Albert Semliki % at Kamdini Kafu Lake % Lake Kyoga inflows Kyoga % outflow from Lake Victoria % 23.7 Lake Victoria Lake Victoria inflows % Sobat Lake Kyoga inflows Evaporation (km3/year) Rainfall (km3/year) Tributary flow (km3/year) 33.2 Nile River flow (km3/year) 10% 9% 10% 12% 4% 9% 6% 4% 0% 9% 28% 22% Inflows from the Nile Rainfall Other inflows Outflows to the Nile Evaporation

26 Catchment Planning using NB DSS Awoja Catchment, Uganda Objective: to prepare a catchment management plan for the Awoja Catchment, Lake Kyoga sub-basin, covering - Agreed investments in infrastructure and other interventions; and - Water management interventions and actions 26

27 SS application example: Estimation of potential future mbalance between water supply and demand Projected growth in irrigated areas in the Nile Basin Burundi Dr Congo Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Tanzania Burundi Dr Congo Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Tanzania Uganda 2, (5.4 M 2050 (8.7 M

28 DSS application example: Estimation of potential future imbalance between water supply and demand Estimated future irrigation water demand satisfaction rate for full development scenario % Irrigation water demand satisfaction rate Min Rate (%) Max (%) % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% Baseline Future_09 Future_10 Future_02 Future_11 Future_01 Future_00

29 Selected National Pilot Cases (Demonstrations) Country Burundi Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Sudan Tanzania Uganda Pilot application Analysis of Water Use in NDURUMU Catchment Impact of Upstream Storage projects on HAD Operating Rules Impact of Irrigation Development in Lake Tana Sub-Basin on existing Hydropower Production, Lake Navigation and Flooding KANO MULTIPURPOSE PROJECT Understand water use for Nyabarongo River Basin projects Implications of upstream Ethiopian dams on existing Blue Nile system in Sudan Evaluation of proposed reservoir(s) in Ndembera Optimization of water use for hydropower, irrigation and

30 Technical Support on NB DSS?? Helpdesk and User Community Portal ( 30