Iran: Nuclear program despite fossil and renewable energy carriers in abundance

Transcription

1 Iran: Nuclear program despite fossil and renewable energy carriers in abundance Dr. Behrooz Abdolvand Matthias Adolf (FFU-Berlin) International Conference Climate Protection, Energy Policies and Wind Power Innovation Courses in Comparison Leopoldskron Palace, Salzburg August 28 th September 1 st, 2006

2 Overview of the Iranian Energy Market Third largest oil reserves: 130 billion barrel Production cost per barrel: Onshore: US$ 1.73 Offshore: US$ 4.42 Second largest natural gas reserves: 28 quintillion cubic meters

3 Overview of the Iranian Energy Market 20-year development plan ( ): Bushehr 1,000 MW Further four nuclear reactors with 7,000 MW altogether

4 Overview of the Iranian Energy Market Final electricity Consumption By Sector Mtoe Other Industry : 0.91 Mtoe 2003: Mtoe Average annual growth rate: 8.4 %

5 Overview of the Iranian Energy Market Total Electricity Generation GWh Gas Oil Hydro 1973: 12,093 GWh 2003: 152,569 GWh Average annual growth rate: 8.8 %

6 Overview of the Iranian Energy Market Alternative electricity generation: Integrated 500 MW power plant is under construction in Yazd Two 250 MW units of the hydroelectric Karoon 3 shall be connected to the grid in ,200 MW geothermal power plant in Ardebil

7 The development process of the Iranian nuclear program 1953: Nuclear research center University of Tehran (5 MW/start operation 1968) Two similar reactors in Pakistan and Turkey Construction in cooperation with USA All members of Central Treaty Organization (Cento)

8 The development process of the Iranian nuclear program 1974: Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Goals: Controlling whole nuclear fuel cycle 23,000 MW nuclear power capacity Extended use of nuclear technology: 1974 contract with USA and Germany 1977 contract with France

9 The development process of the Iranian nuclear program 1979: Revolution and regime change: Germany stopped construction of Bushehr 1996: Russia resumes construction of Bushehr under international protest For example pressure was build up against Ukraine: construction of turbines Czech Republic: construction of airconditioning systems

10 The development process of the Iranian nuclear program Goals of the new government: 20,000 MW nuclear power till 2020 Control of entire nuclear fuel process Isfahan: uranium hexafluoride facility Natanz: gas centrifuges for uranium enrichment Arak: heavy-water reactor for the production of plutonium Bandarabas/Bafgh: uranium mines to produce Yellow Cake

11 The development process of the Iranian nuclear program

12 Non-Proliferation and the Iranian nuclear program USA and EU-Troika: Iranian program for both, civilian and military purposes Iran is member of IAEA Tehran has promised to adhere Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Control of heavy-water cycle shall be prevented (Plutonium production)

13 Non-Proliferation and the Iranian nuclear program Since 1996: Because of delays in construction Iran attended to buy equipment from: China till 2000 (facilities to produce uranium hexafluide) Pakistan black market (technology for the enrichment of uranium, like P2-centrifuges)

14 Non-Proliferation and the Iranian nuclear program June 2003: IAEA accused Iran of concealing the extent of its nuclear program and intensified inspections August/September 2003: highly enriched uranium capable of producing weapons was found at Natanz December 2003: Tehran agreed to stop the production of enriched uranium and signed the corresponding additional protocol of the IAEA

15 Non-Proliferation and the Iranian nuclear program : Negotiations between EU- Troika and Tehran Spring 2005: Agreement between Russia and Iran: Delivering of the entire radioactive material for recycling or permanent storage from Bushehr to Russia

16 Non-Proliferation and the Iranian nuclear program Summer 2005 new president Ahmadinejad: Production of uranium hexafluoride in Isfahan was resumed 2006: Enrichment of uranium for research purposes was continued

17 The lack of a distinctive environmental awareness To comprehend the Iranian position: National consciousness to develop nuclear power program: International sanctions on Iran Double-Standard of western countries (e.g. India/Pakistan; Shah/Khomeini) Technology enthusiasm (short-term thinking; discourse on only civil or also military use) Lack of public debates with respect to ecological questions

18 Conclusion The initiation of a debate about the dangers of the nuclear energy in Iran is not only necessary in the ecological but also in the political sense The investments that are estimated for the nuclear sector should be redirected into the construction of renewable energies, mainly solar and wind energy

19 Conclusion Reduction of the military potential of nuclear power in the whole Greater- Middle-East-Region (corresponding IAEA) Cooperation and balance could be established and secured by an institution for the region (like OSZE)

20 Conclusion That would reduce the danger of interventions of external powers, too Establishing a subsidiary organization of the IAEA for the whole region, with scientists of all states. (like centre for plasma physics in Jordan)

21 Thank you for listening! Are there any questions?