APPENDIX B ECOLOGICAL ANALYSES. PART 1 Ecological Evaluation of South Florida Water Management Model Results for Chapter 3 Alternatives

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1 Ecological Analyses APPENDIX B ECOLOGICAL ANALYSES PART 1 Ecological Evaluation of South Florida Water Management Model Results for Chapter 3 Alternatives PART 2 Ecological Evaluation of Water Conservation Area 3A Analysis for Chapter 3 Alternatives

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3 Ecological Analyses APPENDIX B-1 EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS FOR CHAPTER 3 ALTERNATIVES B-1-i

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5 Ecological Analyses TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction... 1 Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Objectives, Performance Measures and Ecological Targets... 2 Performance Measures... 4 Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow... 4 Everglade Snail Kite/Apple Snail... 4 Wood Stork/Wading Birds... 4 Tree Islands... 4 Ecological Targets... 5 Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow... 5 Everglade Snail Kite... 5 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Multi-Species Transition Strategy... 5 South Florida Water Management Model... 6 Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Final Array of Alternatives for SFWMM Modeling: Overview of Assumptions... 7 Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule Study T3 (Base Run)... 7 Run 7AB... 9 Run 8D Run 9E South Florida Water Management Model Standard Performance Measures Results Ecological Analysis of South Florida Water Management Model Results of Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Performance Measures Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Everglade Snail Kite/Apple Snail Wood Stork/Wading Birds Tree Islands Ranking of Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Alternatives Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Tentatively Selected Plan List of Tables Table 1: Comparison Between Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Alternatives Of The Number Of NP-205 Consecutive Dry Days During Nesting Window And The Date NP-205 First Reached Less Than 6.0 Feet, NGVD Table 2: Wood Stork Colonies With Core Foraging Areas In Water Conservation Area Table 3: Gauges Analyzed For Wood Stork Core Foraging Area Water Depths Table 4: List Of Gauges That Occur Within The Core Foraging Area Of Wood Stork Colonies Identified Table 5: Foraging Water Depths In Centimeters Table 6: Number Of Active White Ibis Nests In The Everglades Restoraton Transition Plan Action Area Table 7: Gauges Analyzed For White Ibis Core Foraging Area Water Depths Table 8: List Of Gauges That Occur Within Core Foraging Area Of The White Ibis Colonies Identified Table 9: Foraging Water Depths In Centimeters B-1-iii

6 Ecological Analyses Table 10: Comparison Of South Florida Water Management Model Runs And Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Performance Measures And Ecological Targets Table 11: Comparison Of Everglades Restoration Transportation Plan South Florida Water Managemtn Model Results In Relation To U.S. Fish And Wildlife Service s Multi- Species Transition Strategy Recommended Seasonal Water Stages In Water Conservation Area-3A Table 12: Ranking Summary Table Of Everglades Restoration Transition Plan South Florida Water Management Model Results LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Locations Of Gauges Within Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Action Area... 3 Figure 2: U.S. Fish And Wildlife Service Multi-Species Transition Strategy For Water Conservation Area-3A... 6 Figure 3: Interim Operational Plan Water Conservation Area-3A Regulation Schedule... 9 Figure 4: South Florida Water Management Model Run 7AB Water Conservation Area-3A Regulation Schedule Figure 5: South Florida Water Management Model Run 8D Water Conservation Area-3A Regulation Schedule Figure 6: South Florida Water Management Model Run 9E1 Water Conservation Area-3A Regulation Schedule Figure 7: Percentage Of Years That NP-205 Was Less Than 6.0 Feet, NGVD By March Figure 8: Percentage Of Years In Which There Were More Than Or Equal To 60 Consecutive Dry Days During Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Breeding Window Figure 9: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-A Nesting Period Figure 10: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-B Nesting Period Figure 11: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-C Nesting Period Figure 12: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-D Nesting Period Figure 13: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-E Nesting Period Figure 14: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-F Nesting Period Figure 15: Percentage Of Years That NP-205 Is Less Than Or Equal To 7.0 Feet, NGVD By December 31. (N=36) Figure 16: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-A Discontinuous Hydroperiod Figure 17: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-B Discontinuous Hydroperiod Figure 18: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-C Discontinuous Hydroperiod B-1-iv

7 Ecological Analyses Figure 19: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-D Discontinuous Hydroperiod Figure 20: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-E Discontinuous Hydroperiod Figure 21: South Florida Water Management Model Results: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Sub-Population-F Discontinuous Hydroperiod Figure 22 Percentage Of Years Water Conservation Area-3AVG Is Within Recommended Depths For Snail Kites By December 31. (N=36) Figure 23: Percentage Of Time Water Conservation Area-3AVG Is Within The Recommended Depths For Snail Kites Between May 1 And June 1. (N=72) Figure 24: Percentage Of Years Water Conservation Area-3AVG Is Within Recommended Depths For Apple Snails By December 31. (N=36) Figure 25: Percentage Of Time Water Conservation Area-3AVG Is Within Recommended Depths For Apple Snails Between May 1 And June 1. (N=72) Figure 26: Percentage Of Months When Water Conservation Area-3AVG January 1 To June 1 Average Weekly Recession Rate Was Within The Recommended Range For The Snail Kite. (N=180) Figure 27: Percentage Of Years When Water Conservation Area-3AVG January 1 To June 1 Stage Difference Is Within The Recommended Depths For The Snail Kite. (N=36).. 39 Figure 28: Percentage Of Months When Water Conservation Area-3AVG Weekly Ascension Rate Is Within The Recommended Range For Apple Snails Between February And November. (N=360) Figure 29: Water Depth (Feet) At Gauge 3A-3 (Site 63) For The Period Between January 1, 1965 And December 31, Figure 30: Water Depth (Feet) At Gauge 3A-4 (Site 64) For The Period Between January 1, 1965 And December 31, Figure 31: Water Depth (Feet) At Gauge 3A-28 (Site 65) For The Period Between January 1, 1965 And December 31, Figure 32: Water Depth (Feet) At Gauge 3A-3 (Site 63) For The Period Between January 1, 1990 And December 31, Figure 33: Water Depth (Feet) At Gauge 3A-4 (Site 64) For The Period Between January 1, 1990 And December 31, Figure 34: Water Depth (Feet) At Gauge 3A-28 (Site 65) For The Period Between January 1, 1990 And December 31, Figure 35: Comparison Of Discontinuous Hydroperiod At Each Of The Three Gauges That Comprise Water Conservation Area-3AVG Figure 36: Comparison Of Average Flood Duration At Each Of The Three Gauges That Comprise Water Conservation Area-3AVG Figure 37: Comparison Of Number Of Consecutive Dry Days At Each Of The Three Gauges That Comprise Water Conservation Area-3AVG Figure 38: Percentage Of Months When Water Conservation Area-3AVG January 1 To June 1 Average Weekly Recession Rate Was Within The Recommended Range For Wood Stork. (N=180) Figure 39: Location Of Wood Stork Colonies And Gauges Used For Evaluation Of Performance Measure-G B-1-v

8 Ecological Analyses Figure 40: Comparison Of Wood Stork Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoraton Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3A Figure 41: Comparison Of Wood Stork Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoraton Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3A Figure 42 Comparison Of Wood Stork Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoraton Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3A Figure 43 Comparison Of Wood Stork Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoraton Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3A-SW Figure 44: Comparison Of Wood Stork Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoraton Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3BS1W Figure 45: Comparison Of Wood Stork Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoraton Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3B Figure 46: Location Of White Ibis Colonies And Gauges Used For Evaluation Of Performance Measure-H Figure 47: Comparison Of White Ibis Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3A Figure 48: Comparison Of White Ibis Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3A Figure 49: Comparison Of White Ibis Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3A Figure 50: Comparison Of White Ibis Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3A-SW Figure 51: Comparison Of White Ibis Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3BS1W Figure 52: Comparison Of White Ibis Foraging Depths Among Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Alternatives At Gauge 3B Figure 53: Percentage Of Years In Which Water Conservation Area-3AVG Water Levels Exceeded 10.8 Feet, NGVD (N=36) Figure 54: Number Of Days Per Year That Water Conservation Area-3AVG Exceeded 10.8 Feet, NGVD Figure 55: Percentage Of Years In Which Water Levels Were Below 10.3 Feet, NGVD By December 31 (N=36) Figure 56: Number Of Weeks In Which The High/Low Water Depth Criteria Were Exceeded In Indicator Region Figure 57: Percentage Of Years In Which Water Conservation Area-3A Water Depths Are Within, Above Or Below Recommended Depth Range B-1-vi

9 Ecological Analyses Evaluation Criteria Methodology INTRODUCTION On February 19, 1999, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) issued a Final Biological Opinion (BO) under the provisions of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) of 1973, as amended, for actions required to assure the survival of the endangered Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS or sparrow), as affected by operation of components of the Central and Southern Florida (C&SF) Project in Miami-Dade County. The BO required rapid implementation of structural and operational changes to existing operations of the constructed portions of the Modified Water Deliveries (MWD) to Everglades National Park (ENP) Project and the Canal-111 (C-111) Project, which were then operating under Test 7 of the Experimental Program of Water Deliveries to ENP. The BO concluded that the continuation of Test 7, Phase I operations would cause adverse modification of CSSS critical habitat and would jeopardize the sparrow s continued existence. The BO presented a Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) that would avoid jeopardizing the CSSS. The RPA recommended that the following hydrological conditions be met for protection of the CSSS: (1) a minimum of 60 consecutive days of water levels at or below 6.0 feet, National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD) would have to be achieved at the NP-205 gauge (the NP-205 gauge is representative of conditions within CSSS subpopulation A [CSSS-A]) between March 1 and July 15; (2) the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) would have to ensure that 30 percent, 45 percent, and 60 percent of required regulatory releases crossing Tamiami Trail enter ENP east of the L-67 Extension in 2000, 2001, and 2002, respectively, or produce hydroperiods and water levels in the vicinity of CSSS subpopulations C, E, and F that meet or exceed those produced by the 30 percent, 45 percent, and 60 percent targets; and (3) produce hydroperiods and water levels in the vicinity of CSSS subpopulations C, E, and F that equal or exceed conditions that would be produced by implementing the exact provisions of Test 7, Phase II operations (USACE 1995), and implement the entire MWD Project no later than December Operations described within the 2002 Interim Operational Plan (IOP) Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), 2006 IOP Final Supplemental EIS, and the 2002 and 2006 IOP BOs were consistent with the 1999 RPA. IOP was intended to be continued until the completion of the MWD Project; however, the MWD Project has not been fully completed and the 2006 IOP BO only covers impacts through November For these reasons, in addition to relevant new species information, USACE is initiating consultation on the Everglades Restoration Transition Plan (ERTP), Phase 1. The purpose of ERTP is to define operations for the constructed features of the MWD and C-111 projects until those projects are fully completed and a Combined Operations Plan (COP) is implemented. The proposed action is a modification of IOP, with operational flexibilities, to provide further hydrological improvements amenable to multiple listed species. ERTP is intended to cover operations until the full implementation of COP, which will be implemented with the completion of MWD and C-111 project features. In July 2010, USACE Water Resources Engineering Branch (EN-W) conducted a review of the C&SF Part 1 Supplement 33 General Design Memorandum (GDM) for Water Conservation Area 3A (WCA-3A; June 1960) and the C&SF Part 1 Supplement 49: B-1-1

10 Ecological Analyses Agricultural and Conservation Areas General and Detail Design Memorandum (DDM) (August 1972). Based upon the results of their review, USACE concluded that a rigorous evaluation of the Standard Project Flood (SPF) conditions within WCA-3A should be conducted (USACE 2010). EN-W proposed a two-phase analysis approach that included the identification and assessment of interim water management criteria for WCA-3A, including operational changes proposed under ERTP, and a WCA-3A flood routing hydraulic analysis. Phase 1 of the analysis identified the 1960 WCA-3A Regulation Schedule criteria of 9.5 to 10.5 feet, NGVD as the interim water management criteria for WCA-3A Zone A under ERTP, while also recommending further consideration of additional opportunities to reduce duration and frequency of WCA-3A high water events. This represents a return to pre- Experimental Program stage levels for Zone A. As such, the current WCA-3A Regulation Schedule utilized under IOP needed to be amended to reflect the 1960 WCA-3A Regulation Schedule criteria of 9.5 to 10.5 feet, NGVD for Zone A. The Phase 2 WCA-3A flood routing analysis, currently in the initial scoping phase, will incorporate current USACE risk analysis requirements focusing on potential health and human safety concerns resulting from WCA- 3A stages, with identification of proposed water management operating criteria and potential infrastructure modifications to address identified concerns. Results from Phase 2 will be incorporated into future phases of ERTP and/or COP. IOP is no longer a valid option for water management within WCA-3A and the South Dade Conveyance System (SDCS) based upon the interim water management criteria identified for WCA-3A which considers human health and safety and endangered species within WCA-3A. EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN OBJECTIVES, PERFORMANCE MEASURES AND ECOLOGICAL TARGETS The overall action objective of ERTP is to maximize operational flexibilities in order to improve conditions for Everglade snail kite, wood stork and other wading birds and their habitats in south Florida, while maintaining nesting season requirements for the CSSS, along with C&SF Project purposes. In order to achieve the action objective USACE and FWS, in conjunction with the multi-agency ERTP team, developed performance measures (PMs) and ecological targets (ETs) for each species and their habitat. PMs are defined as a set of operational rules that identify optimal WCA-3A water stages and recession rates to improve conditions in WCA-3A for snail kite, wood stork, wading birds and tree islands. In addition, PM-A addresses the nesting window for CSSS-A, as outlined in the 1999 FWS RPA. ETs are designed to support the intention of the PMs by providing hydroperiod guidelines to help maintain appropriate nesting and foraging habitat. Note: As referenced in the ERTP PMs and ETs,FIGURE 1 shows the locations of the gauges specified within the ERTP PMs and ETs. B-1-2

11 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 1: LOCATIONS OF GAUGES WITHIN EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ACTION AREA AS REFERENCED IN THE EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSISTION PLAN PERFORMANCE MEASURES AND ECOLOGICAL TARGETS B-1-3

12 Ecological Analyses PERFORMANCE MEASURES Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow A. NP-205 (CSSS-A): Provide a minimum of 60 consecutive days at NP-205 below 6.0 feet, NGVD beginning no later than March 15. Everglade Snail Kite/Apple Snail (Note: All stages for WCA-3A are as measured at WCA-3- gauge average [WCA-3AVG] [Sites 63, 64, 65]) B. WCA-3A: For snail kites, strive to reach waters levels between 9.8 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31, and between 8.8 and 9.3 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1. C. WCA-3A: For apple snails, strive to reach water levels between 9.7 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31 and between 8.7 and 9.7 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1. D. WCA-3A (Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.05 feet per week from January 1 to June 1 (or onset of the wet season). This equates to a stage difference of approximately 1.0 feet between January and the dry season low. E. WCA-3A (Wet Season Rate of Rise): Manage for a monthly rate of rise less than or equal to 0.25 feet per week to avoid drowning of apple snail egg clusters. Wood Stork/Wading Birds F. WCA-3A (Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.07 feet per week, with an optimal range of 0.06 to 0.07 feet per week, from January 1 to June 1. G. WCA-3A (Dry Season): Strive to maintain areas of appropriate foraging depths (5 to 25 centimeters) within the Core Foraging Area (CFA, 18.6 mile radius) of any active wood stork colony. H. WCA-3A (Dry Season): Strive to maintain areas of appropriate foraging depths (5 to 15 centimeters) within the CFA (seven to nine mile radius) of any active white ibis or snowy egret colony. Tree Islands (Note: All stages for WCA-3A are as measured at WCA-3AVG [Sites 63, 64, 65]) I. WCA-3A: For tree islands, strive to keep high water peaks less than 10.8 feet, NGVD, not to exceed 10.8 feet, NGVD for more than 60 days per year, and reach water levels less than 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31. B-1-4

13 Ecological Analyses ECOLOGICAL TARGETS Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow 1. NP-205 (CSSS-A): Strive to reach a water level of less than or equal to 7.0 feet, NGVD at NP-205 by December 31 for nesting season water levels to reach 6.0 feet, NGVD by mid-march. 2. CSSS: Strive to maintain a hydroperiod between 90 and 210 days (three to seven months) per year throughout sparrow habitat to maintain marl prairie vegetation. Everglade Snail Kite 3. WCA-3A (Dry Years): Strive to maintain optimal snail kite foraging habitat by allowing water levels to fall below ground surface level between one in four and one in five years (208 to 260 weeks average flood duration) between May 1 and June 1 to promote regenerations of marsh vegetation. Do not allow water levels below ground surface for more than four to six weeks to minimize adverse effects on apple snail survival. U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE MULTI-SPECIES TRANSITION STRATEGY FWS along with Dr. Kitchens, Phil Darby, Ph.D. of the University of West Florida, and Christa Zweig, Ph.D. of the University of Florida, developed a series of water depth recommendations for WCA-3A that addresses the needs of the snail kite, apple snail and vegetation characteristic of their habitat (FIGURE 2). This water management strategy is divided into three time periods representing the height of the wet season (September 15 to October 15), the pre-breeding season (January) and the breeding season (termed dry season low, May 1 to June 1) and illustrates appropriate water depths to attain within each time period. Water depth recommendations as measured at the WCA-3AVG proposed within the FWS Multi-Species Transition Strategy (MSTS) form the basis for ERTP PMs and ETs. These recommendations and their proposed intent are included in Appendices E and F. Please note that these water depths are not targets and represent a compromise between the needs of the three species. Inter-annual variability is extremely important in the management of the system to promote recovery of the species. B-1-5

14 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 2: U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE MULTI-SPECIES TRANSITION STRATEGY FOR WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3A SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM) Version (Unix) was used in ERTP alternatives evaluation analysis. The model uses a 36-year period of record (POR) from 1965 through This version was developed jointly in 2006 by USACE and South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) staff for Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule (LORS) modeling, with model simulation results and model assumptions described in the November 2007 LORS Final Supplemental EIS. The SFWMM simulation of the 2007 LORS Final Supplemental EIS selected alternative plan, which was formally implemented with a 2008 Record of Decision (ROD), was utilized to develop the SFWMM Base Run simulation utilized for the ERTP EIS Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 alternatives. This Base Run simulation already included the 2008 LORS and the IOP water management operating criteria for WCA-3A and SDCS (consistent with the original Alternative 7R modeling, previously referenced within the 2002 IOP EIS and 2006 IOP Supplemental EIS). To be consistent with current water management practices for the L-29 Canal and the S-356 pump station, the ERTP modeling Base Run contains updates to incorporate the L-29 stage constraint of 7.5 feet, NGVD and the current inability to operate S-356 for water B-1-6

15 Ecological Analyses management purposes. The 2006 SFWMD draft Lake Okeechobee Water Shortage Management Plan (LOWSM; documented within the LORS Final Supplemental EIS) was included within ERTP model runs (although it is recognized that the 2006 SFWMD draft LOWSM was subsequently modified by the SFWMD following completion of the LORS modeling). Subsequent SFWMM version and platform revisions were not utilized, as the 2010 as-built SFWMM IOP baseline simulation was not available from the International Modeling Center (IMC) at the time the ERTP alternative evaluation analysis was performed, due to the ongoing IMC/SFWMD SFWMM update project. Since use of the SFWMM to support ERTP evaluations was not anticipated, USACE modeling network updates (to include SFWMM version updates from the IMC, subsequent to LORS) were also on hold pending completion of IMC/SFWMD SFWMM update. Based on these technical considerations and the project schedule requirements for ERTP, the updated LORS Base Run simulation represented the most appropriate, readily available SFWMM simulation for USACE to initiate ERTP SFWMM modeling. In summary, although the most current IMC version of the SFWMM and the most current set of system-wide assumptions were not able to be utilized for USACE ERTP modeling due to project schedule requirements, a valid and previously-applied SFWMM tool was utilized to provide technically defensible model simulation results able to support relative comparisons between ERTP alternatives. EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN FINAL ARRAY OF ALTERNATIVES FOR SFWMM MODELING: OVERVIEW OF ASSUMPTIONS Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule Study T3 (Base run) In an effort to expedite completion of the SFWMM simulations for ERTP, USACE utilized the SFWMM simulation for the Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule Study (LORSS) selected alternative plan (Alternative E / Alternative T3) as the base run for the ERTP analysis. Utilization of the LORSS modeling for the base run enabled USACE to immediately initiate SFWMM modeling for ERTP. Complete documentation of LORSS Alternative E is provided in the USACE November 2007 LORSS Final Supplemental EIS. SFWMM for Alternative E was completed in November 2006, and the LORSS selected alternative plan was implemented in April In order to develop the starting point SFWMM base run for this ERTP modeling effort, the LORSS Alternative E simulation was modified to include a 7.5 feet, NGVD operational constraint for the L-29 canal and removal of the S-356 pump station operations. Prior SFWMM modeling for ERTP that included a 9.0 feet, NGVD operational constraint for the L-29 canal and S-356 seepage return operations was consistent with prior modeling of IOP. The following general assumptions, included in the base run, are applicable to the WCA- 3A/ENP/South Dade project area: 2008 Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule (LORS); no 8.5 SMA project features (perimeter levee, seepage canal, S-357 pump station); and IOP operations and features, consistent with the original IOP ALT7R modeling: S-355 A&B operations and C-111 detention area full IOP build-out. Interpretation of the following ERTP SFWMM modeling results requires up-front recognition that modeling assumptions are always subject to constant revision, and that subsequent base run or Existing Condition Baseline updates may include the following and other revisions: 8.5 SMA project features; B-1-7

16 Ecological Analyses C-111 detention area build-out consistent with current conditions (South Detention Area and S-332DX1 structure completed in April 2009); explicit simulation of the L-29 culverts, east of L-67A; the November 2007 SFWMD Lake Okeechobee Water Shortage Management Plan (a preliminary draft plan was included in the original LORSS modeling); and SFWMM model platform and version updates. A more detailed overview of this base condition is provided with the README_ERTP_SFWMM_base_run_assumptions_ document, provided with the posted sfwmm_output directory. The WCA-3A Regulation Schedule for the LORSS Base run is the 2002/2006 IOP Regulation Schedule, with all WCA-3A Regulation Schedule SFWMM inputs sets consistent with the original IOP ALT7R modeling. Note: SFWMM Model Run LORS Figure 3 illustrates the IOP/LORS WCA-3A Regulation Schedule. The following additional assumptions are also included in the Base Run, consistent with the original LORSS modeling simulation: Maximum desired stages in WCA-3A for Lake Okeechobee Regulatory Releases when LOK stage as in Zone C or higher is set at feet, NGVD (top of WCA-3A Zone A); Maximum desired stages in WCA-3A for Lake Okeechobee Regulatory Releases when LOK stage is in Zone D is set to match the top of Zone E of the WCA-3A regulation schedule; Utilization of S-151 for WCA-3A regulatory releases when WCA-3A stages are within WCA-3A Zones A, B, C, and E1 during Column 2 operations; S-151 regulatory releases are not simulated within Zone D between July 16 and October 31. All subsequent simulations include consistent assumptions with the LORSS T3 (IOP) base, except where changes are specifically noted. B-1-8

17 Ecological Analyses Zone A Zone A Zone E Note: SFWMM Model Run LORS FIGURE 3: INTERIM OPERATIONAL PLAN WATER CONSERVATION AREA- 3A REGULATION SCHEDULE Run 7AB WCA-3A Regulation Schedule is the same as the ERTP Run 7 SFWMM simulation (EIS Chapter 2 alternative). Note: IOP Zones A through E have been lowered and the inflection point has been moved from June 1 to July 1. Refer to Figure 3 for comparisons between IOP and Alternative 7AB. FIGURE 4 illustrates the Run 7AB WCA-3A Regulation Schedule. WCA-3A Zones A, B, C, and D are lowered, and Zone E1 is removed; operations within the zones have also be redefined as summarized below: S-333 and S-12 operations within Zone A (maximum practicable releases), Zone B (WCA-3A Rainfall Plan), and Zone C (WCA-3A Rainfall Plan) are consistent with operations within Zones A, B, and C under the current IOP regulation schedule; Within Zone D, rainfall formula releases through S-333 are targeted, subject to the G constraint of 6.8 feet, NGVD (similar to IOP Zone E1), and Column 2 operations are available for S-333/S-334. B-1-9

18 Ecological Analyses The following operational rules are also included: S-12A closed from November 1 through July 14 (consistent with current IOP) S-12B closed January 1 through July 14 (consistent with current IOP); S-12B also closed November 1 through December 31, unless WCA-3A stage is within Zone A of the Run 7 Regulation Schedule Removal of IOP S-12C closures (IOP closure dates February 1 through July 14) S-343A, S-343B, and S-344 IOP seasonal closures unchanged (November 1 through July 14) WCA-3A Rainfall Plan Target Flow for Non-regulatory component, dry season: 80 percent targeted to Eastern Shark River Slough (SRS), 20 percent targeted to Western SRS Regulatory coefficient of 5,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) per foot above the bottom of the lowest regulatory zone (Zones B, C, and D) between July and December current IOP uses 2,500 cfs per foot (originally established under the Experimental Delivery to ENP program in 1985); the increased coefficient is recommended to improve the transition to Zone A releases by accounting for the reduced height of the regulation schedule zones, based on lowering of Zone A Maximum desired stages in WCA-3A for Lake Okeechobee Regulatory Releases when LOK stage is in Zone C or higher is set at 10.5 feet, NGVD (the line is lowered consistent with the lowering of Zone A) Maximum desired stages in WCA-3A for Lake Okeechobee Regulatory Releases when LOK stage is in Zone D is set 9.5 feet, NGVD Utilization of S-151 for WCA-3A Regulatory Releases when WCA-3A stages are within WCA-3A Zones A, B, and C of the Run 7AB regulation schedule for WCA- 3A during Column 2 operations No marsh operations for C-111 South Detention Area (C-111 SDA) (consistent with current IOP) B-1-10

19 Ecological Analyses Note: IOP Zones A through E have been lowered and the inflection point has been moved from June 1 to July 1. Refer to Figure 3 for comparisons between IOP and Alternative 7AB. FIGURE 4: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RUN 7AB WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3A REGULATION SCHEDULE Run 8D Run 8D is the current IOP Regulation Schedule with WCA-3A Zone A lowered to satisfy the regulation schedule aspect of the USACE interim high water management criteria for WCA- 3A. Zone A is lowered to the 9.5 to 10.5 feet, NGVD Regulation Schedule for WCA-3A that managed water levels in WCA-3A prior to the start of the Experimental Program of Water Deliveries to ENP in 1983; Zone A for Run 8D is equivalent to the bottom of Zone B/C under the current IOP WCA-3A Regulation Schedule. Figure 5 illustrates the Run 8D WCA-3A Regulation Schedule. The following operational rules are also included: S-12A and S-12B IOP closure dates unchanged (note: S-12B closure dates further extended for the Run 7AB simulation Removal of IOP S-12C closures B-1-11

20 Ecological Analyses S-343A, S-343B, and S-344 IOP seasonal closures unchanged (November 1 through July 14) WCA-3A Rainfall Plan Target Flow for Non-regulatory component, dry season: 80 percent targeted to Eastern SRS, 20 percent targeted to Western SRS Regulatory coefficient of 5,000 cfs per foot above the bottom of the lowest regulatory zone (Zones B, C, and D) between July and December current IOP uses 2,500 cfs per foot (originally established under the Experimental Delivery program in 1985); the increased coefficient is recommended to improve the transition to Zone A releases by accounting for the reduced height of the regulation schedule zones, based on lowering of Zone A Transition zone of 0.25 feet added to allow Column 2 deliveries through S-333/S-334 to SDCS when WCA-3A stages are within 0.25 feet of Zone A between November 1 and January 31; addition of this transition zone accounts for the loss of the Zone B/C transition zone between November 1 and January 31 due to the lowering of Zone A Maximum desired stages in WCA-3A for Lake Okeechobee Regulatory Releases when LOK stage is in Zone C or higher is set at 10.5 feet, NGVD (the line is lowered consistent with the lowering of Zone A) Maximum desired stages in WCA-A for Lake Okeechobee Regulatory Releases when LOK stage is in Zone D is set to match the top of Zone E of the WCA-3A Regulation Schedule (consistent with IOP), except for a transition zone of 0.25 feet that is added between November 1 and January 31; addition of this transition zone accounts for the loss of the Zone B/C transition zone between November 1 and January 31 due to the lowering of Zone A Utilization of S-151 for WCA-3A Regulatory Releases when WCA-3A stages are within WCA-3A Zones A and E1 during Column 2 operations; S-151 regulatory releases are not simulated within Zone D between July 15 and October 31 unchanged from IOP. No marsh operations for C-111 SDA (consistent with current IOP) B-1-12

21 Ecological Analyses Zone A Zone A Zone E Note: IOP Zone A has been lowered and Zones B and C have been eliminated. Refer to FIGURE 4 for comparisons between IOP and Alternative 8D. FIGURE 5: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RUN 8D WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3A REGULATION SCHEDULE Run 9E1 Run 9E1 is the current IOP Regulation Schedule with WCA-3A Zone A lowered to satisfy the regulation schedule aspect of the USACE interim high water management criteria for WCA-3A, Zone D extended forward to December 31 (consistent with previous ERTP Alternative B), and Zone E1 extended backwards to January 1 (consistent with previous ERTP Alternative B). Zone A is lowered to the 9.5 to 10.5 feet, NGVD Regulation Schedule for WCA-3A that managed water levels in WCA-3A prior to the start of the Experimental Program of Water Deliveries to ENP in 1983; Zone A for Run 9E1 is equivalent to the bottom of Zone B/C under the current IOP WCA-3A Regulation Schedule. FIGURE 6 illustrates the Run 9E1 WCA-3A Regulation Schedule. The following operational rules are also included: S-12A and S-12B IOP closure dates unchanged (note: S-12B closure dates further extended for the Run 7AB simulation) Removal of IOP S-12C closures S-343A, S-343B, and S-344 IOP seasonal closures unchanged (November 1 through July 14) B-1-13

22 Ecological Analyses WCA-3A Rainfall Plan Target Flow for Non-regulatory component, dry season: 80 percent targeted to Eastern SRS, 20 percent targeted to Western SRS Regulatory coefficient of 5,000 cfs per foot above the bottom of the lowest regulatory zone (Zones B, C, and D) between July and December current IOP uses 2,500 cfs per foot (originally established under the Experimental Delivery program in 1985); the increased coefficient is recommended to improve the transition to Zone A releases by accounting for the reduced height of the regulation schedule zones, based on lowering of Zone A Maximum desired stages in WCA-3A for Lake Okeechobee Regulatory Releases when LOK stage is in Zone C or higher is set at 10.5 feet, NGVD (the line is lowered consistent with the lowering of Zone A) Maximum desired stages in WCA-3A for Lake Okeechobee Regulatory Releases when LOK stage is in Zone D is set to match the top of Zone E of the Run 9E1 WCA- 3A Regulation Schedule (consistent with IOP) between February 1 and December 31; during January, this line is offset from Zone A by 0.25 feet, consistent with Run 8D Utilization of S-151 for WCA-3A regulatory releases when WCA-3A stages are within WCA-3A Zones A, B, C, D, and E1 during Column 2 operations; S-151 regulatory releases were not simulated within Zone D between July 15 and October 31 under IOP No marsh operations for C-111 SDA (consistent with current IOP) B-1-14

23 Ecological Analyses Zone A Zone A Zone E Note: IOP Zone A has been lowered, Zones B and C have been eliminated, and Zones D and E1 have been expanded. Refer to Note: IOP Zone A has been lowered and Zones B and C have been eliminated. Refer to FIGURE 4 for comparisons between IOP and Alternative 8D. FIGURE 5 for comparisons between IOP and Alternative 9E1. FIGURE 6: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RUN 9E1 WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3A REGULATION SCHEDULE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL STANDARD PERFORMANCE MEASURES RESULTS SFWMM results have been posted to a public FTP site and may be accessed using the following link: htm ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS OF EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN PERFORMANCE MEASURES SFWMM results were then used to compare performance of alternatives in relation to the ERTP PMs and ETs in order to select the alternative that best met the ERTP objectives. Microsoft Excel 2007 was used to analyze SFWMM results and create bar graphs to B-1-15

24 Ecological Analyses graphically compare alternatives. All calculations are based upon the SFWMM 36-year POR from 1965 through Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow PM-A NP-205 (CSSS-A): Provide a minimum of 60 consecutive days at NP-205 below 6.0 feet, NGVD beginning no later than March 15. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-A, the SFWMM simulated NP-205 daily stage was utilized. From this data, the annual discontinuous hydroperiod (number of days inundated), was calculated and the number of consecutive dry days within the CSSS nesting window of March 1 through July 14 counted. The date that NP-205 was first below 6.0 feet, NGVD was also noted (Table 1). From this data, the percentage of years (N=36) that NP- 205 was less than 6.0 feet, NGVD by March 15 was calculated and is depicted in Figure 7. In addition, the percentage of years that there were greater than 60 consecutive dry days (NP- 205 less than 6.0 feet, NGVD) during the CSSS nesting window (March 1 through July 14) was also calculated and graphed (FIGURE 8). B-1-16

25 Ecological Analyses TABLE 1: COMPARISON BETWEEN EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES OF THE NUMBER OF NP-205 CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS DURING NESTING WINDOW AND THE DATE NP-205 FIRST REACHED LESS THAN 6.0 FEET, NGVD LORS NP-205 Run 7AB NP-205 Run 8D NP-205 Run 9E1 NP-205 Number of Consecutive Dry Days During CSSS Breeding Number of Consecutive Dry Days During CSSS Breeding Window (March Number of Consecutive Dry Days During CSSS Breeding Window (March Number of Consecutive Dry Days During CSSS Breeding Window (March Year Discontinuous Hydroperiod Window (March 1 through July 14) Discontinuous Hydroperiod 1 through July 14) Discontinuous Hydroperiod 1 through July 14) Discontinuous Hydroperiod 1 through July 14) , , , , , , , 34, , 34, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 1, ,32, ,32, ,32, ,32, ,3, 49,18, ,6,50, ,3,48,18, ,4,50,24, B-1-17

26 Ecological Analyses Year Discontinuous Hydroperiod LORS NP-205 Number of Consecutive Dry Days During CSSS Breeding Window (March 1 through July 14) Discontinuous Hydroperiod Run 7AB NP-205 Number of Consecutive Dry Days During CSSS Breeding Window (March 1 through July 14) Discontinuous Hydroperiod Run 8D NP-205 Number of Consecutive Dry Days During CSSS Breeding Window (March 1 through July 14) Discontinuous Hydroperiod Run 9E1 NP-205 Number of Consecutive Dry Days During CSSS Breeding Window (March 1 through July 14) , , , , ,2, ,19, , , ,10,3, ,99,3, ,10,3, ,10,3, ,29,17,1, ,17,10,17, ,28,17,1, ,16,10,4,12, , ,8,34, ,7,33, ,7,33, , , , ,29 Note: Numbers highlighted in red indicate years when the FWS RPA would not have been achieved. CSSS Nesting Window March 1 to July 15. B-1-18

27 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 7: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS THAT NP-205 WAS LESS THAN 6.0 FEET, NGVD BY MARCH 15 B-1-19

28 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 8: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS IN WHICH THERE WERE MORE THAN OR EQUAL TO 60 CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS AT GUAGE NP-205 DURING CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW BREEDING WINDOW (MARCH 1 THROUGH JULY 14) As shown in Table 1 and Figure 7, NP-205 would be less than 6.0 feet, NGVD by March 15 in 23 of 36 years (64 percent) under Alternative 7AB and in 22 of 36 years (61 percent) under LORS and Alternatives 8D and 9E1. This one-year difference would occur in 1994 when water levels were below 6.0 feet, NGVD by March 14 under Alternative 7AB, March 16 under Alternatives 8D and 9E1 and March 17 under LORS. It is important to note that the 60 dry day requirement during the CSSS nesting window would have been achieved under every alternative in As shown in FIGURE 8, the 60 consecutive dry days during the CSSS nesting window of March 1 through July 14 would have been achieved in 24 of the 36 years (67 percent) under LORS and Alternative 7AB and in 23 of the 36 years (64 percent) under Alternatives 8D and 9E1. In 1996, LORS and Alternative 7AB operations would have provided 60 consecutive dry days at NP-205 with March 24-26, 1996 water stages ranging between 5.89 and 5.99 feet, NGVD. In comparison, Alternatives 8D and 9E1 operations would have provided 57 consecutive dry days at NP-205 with March 24-26, 1996 water stages ranging between 6.02 and 6.12 feet, NGVD. This equates to a difference between IOP and ERTP operations of three days and 0.13 to 0.15 feet (3.96 to 4.57 centimeters). In addition to the analyses outlined above, standard SFWMM PMs for the CSSS were also utilized to compare performance among ERTP Alternatives for the number of dry days during the CSSS nesting window for each of the six CSSS subpopulations. As shown in FIGURE 9 through FIGURE 14, there is very little difference in performance among alternatives. B-1-20

29 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 9: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-A NESTING PERIOD FIGURE 10: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-B NESTING PERIOD B-1-21

30 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 11: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-C NESTING PERIOD FIGURE 12: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-D NESTING PERIOD B-1-22

31 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 13: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-E NESTING PERIOD FIGURE 14: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-F NESTING PERIOD B-1-23

32 Ecological Analyses ET-1 (NP-205, CSSS-A): Strive to reach a water level of less than or equal to 7.0 feet, NGVD at NP-205 by December 31 for nesting season water levels to reach 6.0 feet, NGVD by mid-march. In order to compare alternatives in relation to ET-1, the SFWMM simulated WCA-3AVG daily stage for December 31 was employed to calculate the percentage of years (N=36) in which NP-205 was less than 7.0 feet, NGVD by December 31 (FIGURE 15). As illustrated by FIGURE 15, ET-1 would have been achieved in 89 percent of years (32 of 36 years) under each of the ERTP Alternatives. B-1-24

33 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 15: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS THAT NP-205 IS LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 7.0 FEET, NGVD BY DECEMBER 31. (N=36) B-1-25

34 Ecological Analyses ET-2 (CSSS): Strive to maintain a hydroperiod between 90 and 210 days (three to seven months) per year throughout sparrow habitat to maintain marl prairie vegetation. In order to compare alternatives for hydroperiod throughout CSSS habitat, SFWMM Standard PMs were employed. SFWMM results for each CSSS subpopulation are depicted in FIGURE 16 through FIGURE 21. As shown in FIGURE 16 through FIGURE 21, there is very little difference in performance among alternatives. FIGURE 16: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-A DISCONTINUOUS HYDROPERIOD B-1-26

35 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 17: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-B DISCONTINUOUS HYDROPERIOD B-1-27

36 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 18: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-C DISCONTINUOUS HYDROPERIOD B-1-28

37 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 19: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-D DISCONTINUOUS HYDROPERIOD B-1-29

38 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 20: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-E DISCONTINUOUS HYDROPERIOD B-1-30

39 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 21: SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS: CAPE SABLE SEASIDE SPARROW SUB-POPULATION-F DISCONTINUOUS HYDROPERIOD Everglade Snail Kite/Apple Snail PM-B (WCA-3A): For snail kites, strive to reach waters levels between 9.8 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31, and between 8.8 and 9.3 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-B, the SFWMM simulated daily WCA- 3AVG stage was used to determine whether WCA-3A would have been within the recommended ranges by December 31 and between May 1 and June 1 for each year within the POR. From this information, the percentage of years in which the stage was within those recommended within PM-B was calculated and bar graphs created. FIGURE 22 illustrates the percentage of years in which WCA-3AVG was between 9.8 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31. FIGURE 23 shows the percentage of months in which the WCA-3AVG was within the recommended stage between May 1 and June 1. In this calculation, both the minimum and maximum WCA-3AVG stage were used in the calculations, thus all numbers were divided by 72 to calculate the percent of months in which water depths were between the recommended range between May 1 and June 1. B-1-31

40 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 22: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG IS WITHIN RECOMMENDED DEPTHS FOR SNAIL KITES BY DECEMBER 31. (N=36) B-1-32

41 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 23: PERCENTAGE OF TIME WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG IS WITHIN THE RECOMMENDED DEPTHS FOR SNAIL KITES BETWEEN MAY 1 AND JUNE 1. (N=72) B-1-33

42 Ecological Analyses As shown in FIGURE 22, the WCA-3AVG would have been within the recommended range by December 31 in 44 percent of years (16 of 36 years) under LORS and Alternative 8D, 50 percent of years (18 of 36 years) under Alternative 7AB and in 53 percent of years (19 of 36 years) under Alternative 9E1. Alternative 9E1 also exhibited the highest performance during May 1 to June 1 (FIGURE 23) falling within the recommended range in 43 percent of time (31 of 72) as compared with 42 percent, 36 percent, and 33 percent under Alternatives 8D, LORS and 7AB, respectively. PM-C (WCA-3A): For apple snails, strive to reach water levels between 9.7 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31 and between 8.7 and 9.7, NGVD feet between May 1 and June 1. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-C, the SFWMM simulated daily WCA- 3AVG stage was used to determine whether WCA-3A would have been within the recommended ranges by December 31 and between May 1 and June 1 for each year within the POR. From this information, the percentage of years in which the stage was within those recommended within PM-C was calculated and bar graphs created. FIGURE 24 illustrates the percentage of years in which WCA-3AVG was between 9.8 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31. FIGURE 25 shows the percentage of months in which the WCA-3AVG was within the recommended stage between May 1 and June 1. In this calculation, both the minimum and maximum WCA-3AVG stage were used in the calculations, thus all numbers were divided by 72 to calculate the percent of months in which water depths were between the recommended range between May 1 and June 1. As shown in FIGURE 24, the WCA-3AVG would have been within the recommended range for apple snails by December 31 in 39 percent of years (14 of 36 years) under LORS, 50 percent (18 of 36 years) of years under Alternative 7AB, 53 percent of years (19 of 36 years) under Alternative 8D and 61 percent of years (22 of 36 years) under Alternative 9E1. Alternatives 8D and 9E1 exhibited the highest performance during May 1 to June 1 (FIGURE 23) falling with the recommended range in 53 percent of time (38 of 72) as compared with 47 percent and 44 percent under Alternative LORS and 7AB, respectively. B-1-34

43 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 24: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG IS WITHIN RECOMMENDED DEPTHS FOR APPLE SNAILS BY DECEMBER 31. (N=36) B-1-35

44 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 25: PERCENTAGE OF TIME WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG IS WITHIN RECOMMENDED DEPTHS FOR APPLE SNAILS BETWEEN MAY 1 AND JUNE 1. (N=72) B-1-36

45 Ecological Analyses PM-D (WCA-3A, Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.05 feet per week from January 1 to June 1 (or onset of the wet season). This equates to a stage difference of approximately 1.0 feet between January and the dry season low. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-D, the SFWMM simulated daily WCA- 3AVG stage was used to calculate the average January 1 to June 1 weekly recession rate and stage difference. Average weekly recession rates were calculated for the months of January through May for each of the 36 years (N=180). The calculated average weekly recession rates were then color-coded according to the FWS MSTS recommended recession rate guide. FIGURE 26 depicts the percentage of years in which the recession rates fell within each category of the FWS MSTS guide. For annual stage difference, the simulated WCA-3AVG stage on June 1 was subtracted from the simulated WCA-3AVG stage on January 1 for each of the 36 years. The FWS MSTS recommended recession rate guide was used to categorize the calculated stage differences to indicate if the stage difference was lower than, within, or higher than the recommended stage difference. The recommended stage difference categories were calculated by multiplying the FWS MSTS recommended weekly recession rates by 20, the approximate number of weeks between January 1 and June 1. For example, according to the FWS MSTS, weekly recession rates of 0.06 to 0.09 feet per week are considered acceptable under certain environmental conditions. Multiplying 0.06 and 0.09 by 20 would equate to a 1.2 to 1.8 foot stage difference. Figure 27 depicts the percentage of years in which the WCA-3AVG January 1 to June 1 stage difference is within the recommended depths for snail kites. None of the alternatives showed a significant improvement over LORS in recession rate or stage difference. It is important to note that the recession rates and stage differences shown in FIGURE 26 and Figure 27 can be improved using real-time water management operations and incorporation of WCA-3A Periodic Scientists Call (PSC) recommendations. SFWMM does not contain the ability to model operational flexibility and adaptive management and thus simply provides a baseline indicator of recession rates. B-1-37

46 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 26: PERCENTAGE OF MONTHS WHEN WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG JANUARY 1 TO JUNE 1 AVERAGE WEEKLY RECESSION RATE WAS WITHIN THE RECOMMENDED RANGE FOR THE SNAIL KITE. (N=180) B-1-38

47 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 27: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS WHEN WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG JANUARY 1 TO JUNE 1 STAGE DIFFERENCE IS WITHIN THE RECOMMENDED DEPTHS FOR THE SNAIL KITE. (N=36) B-1-39

48 Ecological Analyses PM-E (WCA-3A, Wet Season Rate of Rise): Manage for a monthly rate of rise less than or equal to 0.25 feet per week to avoid drowning of apple snail egg clusters. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-E, the SFWMM simulated daily WCA- 3AVG stage was used to calculate average weekly ascension rates for the months of February through November for each of the 36 years (N=360). From this data, the percentage of months in which the WCA-3AVG average weekly ascension rate was within the recommended range for apple snails between February and November was calculated and is depicted in Figure 28. As highlighted in Figure 28, there is no difference among the ERTP alternatives for PM-E. B-1-40

49 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 28: PERCENTAGE OF MONTHS WHEN WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG WEEKLY ASCENSION RATE IS WITHIN THE RECOMMENDED RANGE FOR APPLE SNAILS BETWEEN FEBRUARY AND NOVEMBER. (N=360) B-1-41

50 Ecological Analyses ET-3 (WCA-3A, Dry Years): Strive to maintain optimal snail kite foraging habitat by allowing water levels to fall below ground surface level between one in four and one in five years (208 to 260 weeks average flood duration) between May 1 and June 1 to promote regenerations of marsh vegetation. Do not allow water levels below ground surface for more than four to six weeks to minimize adverse effects on apple snail survival. In order to gain a better understanding of water depths and hydroperiods throughout WCA- 3A, analyses were performed on each of the three gauges that comprise the WCA-3AVG; 3A-3 (Site 63), 3A-4 (Site 64) and 3A-28 (Site 65) located in WCA-3A from north to south, respectively (Note: As referenced in the ERTP PMs and ETs FIGURE 1). SFWMM simulated daily stage for each of the three gauges for the 36-year POR was utilized in the analyses. In order to calculate daily water depths at the individual gauges, the gauge ground surface elevation was subtracted from the simulated daily stage. Ground surface elevations are as follows: 3A-3=9.08 feet, NGVD; 3A-4=8.49 feet, NGVD; 3A-28=7.44 feet, NGVD. Figure 29, Figure 30 and Figure 31 depict water depths at each of the gauges for the 36-year POR. Figure 32, Figure 33 and Figure 34 depict in greater detail water depths at the three gauges for the period between 1990 and 2000, which has been shown to be most similar to current climatic conditions (FWS BO, Appendix E). As shown in Figure 29 through Figure 34, all ERTP action alternatives lower water depths at each of the three gauges in comparison to LORS, thereby meeting the primary ERTP objective of lowering water levels within WCA-3A. Annual discontinuous hydroperiod was then calculated from the simulated stage data for the three gauges and is shown in Figure 35. In general, hydroperiods are shorter under the three action alternatives as compared with LORS, with Alternative 7AB showing the greatest difference among the alternatives, followed by Alternative 9E1 and 8D, respectively. Annual discontinuous hydroperiod was then converted into weekly average flood duration in order to compare the alternatives with the ET-3 recommended average flood duration of 208 to 260 weeks. Average flood duration is shown in Figure 36. As average flood duration is simply an alternate manner of viewing discontinuous hydroperiod, performance among the action alternatives was the same as described for annual discontinuous hydroperiod, with Alternative 7AB showing the greatest difference from LORS. ET-3 recommends that water levels do not fall below ground surface level for more than four to six weeks between May and June to minimize adverse effects on apple snail reproduction and survival. In order to determine the timing and duration of dry events at the three individual gauges, SFWMM simulate daily stage was utilized. The number of consecutive dry days was totaled for each year and divided into four categories as follows: less than 28 consecutive dry days (less than four weeks); greater than 28 but less than 41 consecutive dry days (more than four weeks); greater than 42 but less than 55 consecutive dry days (more than six weeks); and greater than 56 consecutive dry days (more than eight weeks). From this information, the percentage of years (N=36) that fell into each of the four categories was calculated and is presented in Figure 37. All of the ERTP action alternatives showed a B-1-42

51 Ecological Analyses greater number of consecutive dry days as compared with LORS, with the greatest increase occurring in at Gauge 3A-3 in northern WCA-3A. B-1-43

52 Ecological Analyses This page intentionally left blank B-1-44

53 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 29: WATER DEPTH (FEET) AT GAUGE 3A-3 (SITE 63) FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN JANUARY 1, 1965 AND DECEMBER 31, 2000 B-1-45

54 Ecological Analyses THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK B-1-46

55 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 30: WATER DEPTH (FEET) AT GAUGE 3A-4 (SITE 64) FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN JANUARY 1, 1965 AND DECEMBER 31, 2000 B-1-47

56 Ecological Analyses THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK B-1-48

57 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 31: WATER DEPTH (FEET) AT GAUGE 3A-28 (SITE 65) FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN JANUARY 1, 1965 AND DECEMBER 31, 2000 B-1-49

58 Ecological Analyses THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK B-1-50

59 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 32: WATER DEPTH (FEET) AT GAUGE 3A-3 (SITE 63) FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN JANUARY 1, 1990 AND DECEMBER 31, 2000 B-1-51

60 Ecological Analyses THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK B-1-52

61 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 33: WATER DEPTH (FEET) AT GAUGE 3A-4 (SITE 64) FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN JANUARY 1, 1990 AND DECEMBER 31, 2000 B-1-53

62 Ecological Analyses THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK B-1-54

63 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 34: WATER DEPTH (FEET) AT GAUGE 3A-28 (SITE 65) FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN JANUARY 1, 1990 AND DECEMBER 31, 2000 B-1-55

64 Ecological Analyses THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK B-1-56

65 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 35: COMPARISON OF DISCONTINUOUS HYDROPERIOD AT EACH OF THE THREE GAUGES THAT COMPRISE WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG B-1-57

66 Ecological Analyses THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK B-1-58

67 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 36: COMPARISON OF AVERAGE FLOOD DURATION AT EACH OF THE THREE GAUGES THAT COMPRISE WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG B-1-59

68 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 37: COMPARISON OF NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE DRY DAYS AT EACH OF THE THREE GAUGES THAT COMPRISE WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG B-1-60

69 Ecological Analyses Wood Stork/Wading Birds PM-F (WCA-3A, Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.07 feet per week, with an optimal range of 0.06 to 0.07 feet per week, from January 1 to June 1. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-F, the SFWMM simulated daily WCA- 3AVG stage was used to calculate the January 1 to June 1 average weekly recession rate and stage difference. Average weekly recession rates were calculated for the months of January through May for each of the 36 years (N=180). The calculated average weekly recession rates were then color-coded according to the FWS MSTS recommended recession rate guide. Figure 38 depicts the percentage of years in which the recession rates fell within each category of the FWS MSTS guide. None of the alternatives showed a significant improvement over LORS in recession rate. It is important to note that the recession rates shown in Figure 38 can be improved using real time water management operations and incorporation of WCA-3A PSC recommendations. SFWMM does not contain the ability to model flexibility and adaptive management and thus simply provides a baseline indicator of recession rates. B-1-61

70 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 38: PERCENTAGE OF MONTHS WHEN WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG JANUARY 1 TO JUNE 1 AVERAGE WEEKLY RECESSION RATE WAS WITHIN THE RECOMMENDED RANGE FOR WOOD STORK. (N=180) B-1-62

71 Ecological Analyses PM-G (WCA-3A, Dry Season): Strive to maintain areas of appropriate foraging depths (5 to 25 centimeters) within the Core Foraging Area (CFA, 18.6 mile radius) of any active wood stork colony. In order to compare ERTP alternatives for PM-G an analysis of wood stork foraging water depths in WCA-3 was performed for the time period of October 1 through September 30 for each year from 1989 through 2000 using the SFWMM results. Wood stork colonies, locations, gauges and foraging depths were provided to FWS (FWS, 2010). The following has been excerpted from FWS 2010: Wood storks are known to forage in a 360-degree radius of 30 kilometers (18.6 statute miles) from an active colony (Cox et al 1994). The optimal water depth for wood storks is 14 to 15 centimeters with suboptimal dry water depths ranging from -9 to 4 centimeters and suboptimal wet water depths ranging from 26 to 40 centimeters (Beerens and Cook unpublished report 2010). Recession rates are addressed under a separate analysis. The following wood stork colonies were found to have their respective CFA extending into WCA-3A and WCA-3B. Colony locations and CFAs are depicted in Table 2 and Figure 39. TABLE 2: WOOD STORK COLONIES WITH CORE FORAGING AREAS IN WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3 NAME COUNTY LAST ACTIVE 2009 LATITUDE LONGITUD E 2B Melaleuca Broward Crossover Miami-Dade Jetport Miami-Dade , Jetport South Miami-Dade B Mud East Miami-Dade Tamiami Trail East1 Miami-Dade Tamiami Trail East Miami-Dade Tamiami Trail West Miami-Dade , Grossman Ridge West Miami- Dade Gauges listed in Table 3 were analyzed using the SFWMM simulated daily stage for LORS and Alternatives 7AB, 8D and 9E1. Gauge locations are depicted in Figure 39. Table 4 identifies the gauges that are included within the CFA of each active wood stork colony. B-1-63

72 Ecological Analyses TABLE 3: GAUGES ANALYZED FOR WOOD STORK CORE FORAGING AREA WATER DEPTHS Gauge Description 3A3 (Site 63) Northeastern WCA-3A 3A4 (Site 64) Central WCA-3A 3ASW West-central WCA-3A 3A28 (Site 65) Southern WCA-3A 3B2 (Site 71) Central WCA-3B 3BS1W1 Southeastern WCA-3B Notes: Circles represent the CFA of the colony. FIGURE 39: LOCATION OF WOOD STORK COLONIES AND GAUGES USED FOR EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE MEASURE-G. B-1-64

73 Ecological Analyses TABLE 4: LIST OF GAUGES THAT OCCUR WITHIN THE CORE FORAGING AREA OF WOOD STORK COLONIES IDENTIFIED Colony Name Gauge 3A3 3A4 3ASW 3A28 3B2 3BS1W1 NE- 1 NP- 203 NP- 205 NP- 206 Tamiami East X X X X X X X Tamiami East 2 X X X X X X X Tamiami West (NESRS) X X X X X X X 2B Melaleuca X Crossover (WCA- X X X X X 3A) Jetport (WCA-3A) X X X X X Mud East (WCA- 3B) X X X X X X X Jetport South (WCA-3A) X X X X X X Grossman s Ridge West X X X X X X X The wood stork analysis employed simulated daily stage data for the gauges listed in Table 3 in feet of NGVD from the SFWMM monitoring point results. Water depths were obtained by subtracting the average ground elevations (obtained from EDEN and converted to NGVD) from the simulated daily stage in feet of NGVD. Water depths were then converted to centimeters by multiplying values by (30.48 cm = 1 foot). These water depths, now in centimeters, were then used to graph daily foraging depths in Excel. On these graphs, the red-yellow-green light method was used to illustrate annual trends of water depths. Table 5 illustrates the values used for the red-yellow-green light method. Graphs for each gauge are included within this document as Figures 40 through 45. TABLE 5: FORAGING WATER DEPTHS IN CENTIMETERS Water Depth (centimeters) less than -9 cm -9 to 4 cm 5 to 25 cm 26 to 40 cm greater than 40 cm Key: Color coded using the red-yellow-green method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow suboptimal Green optimal B-1-65

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75 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow suboptimal Green optimal FIGURE 40: COMPARISON OF WOOD STORK FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3A-3 B-1-67

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77 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow suboptimal Green optimal FIGURE 41: COMPARISON OF WOOD STORK FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3A-4 B-1-69

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79 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow suboptimal Green optimal FIGURE 42: COMPARISON OF WOOD STORK FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3A-28 B-1-71

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81 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow suboptimal Green optimal FIGURE 43: COMPARISON OF WOOD STORK FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3A-SW B-1-73

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83 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow suboptimal Green optimal FIGURE 44: COMPARISON OF WOOD STORK FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3BS1W B-1-75

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85 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow suboptimal Green optimal FIGURE 45: COMPARISON OF WOOD STORK FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3B2 B-1-77

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87 Ecological Analyses PM-H (WCA-3A, Dry Season): Strive to maintain areas of appropriate foraging depths (5 to 15 centimeters) within the CFA (seven to nine mile radius) of any active white ibis or snowy egret colony. In order to compare ERTP alternatives for PM-G an analysis of white ibis foraging water depths in WCA-3 was performed for the time period of October 1 through September 30 for each year from 1989 through 2000 using the SFWMM results. Wood stork colonies, locations, gauges and foraging depths were provided to FWS (FWS, 2010). The following has been excerpted from FWS 2010: White ibis are known to forage in a 360-degree radius of 10 kilometers (6.2 statute miles) from an active colony (Bancroft et al. 1994). The optimal water depth for white ibis foraging in WCA-3 is 7 to 16 centimeters with suboptimal dry water depths ranging from -15 to 6 centimeters and suboptimal wet water depths ranging from 17 to 31 centimeters (Beerens 2008). Table 6 lists active white ibis colonies with CFAs extending into WCA-3 (3A and 3B) from 1998 through Colony locations and CFAs are depicted in Note: Circles represent the CFA of the colony Figure 46. B-1-79

88 Ecological Analyses TABLE 6: NUMBER OF ACTIVE WHITE IBIS NESTS IN THE EVERGLADES RESTORATON TRANSITION PLAN ACTION AREA Colony Name Tamiami West ,000 3B Mud 122 1, East 6th Bridge ,661 1,000 Alley North 500 4,000 20,000 20,000 6,033 16,000 12,750 13, ,200 Anhinga 4 Alley Big 150 Melaleuca Big Pond 55 Cypress 200 City East 25 Central Ag Ganga 9 Heron Alley L Pocket 2,265 Unnamed 2 56 West Ag 4 Canal West 13 Central Ag Total 500 4,526 20,995 3,820 20,400 6,305 17,209 13,250 14,385 11,269 1,000 22,209 Note: As reported by the South Florida Wading Bird Reports from 1998 through 2009 The gauges listed within Table 7 were analyzed using the SFWMM simulated daily stages for LORS and Alternatives 7AB, 8D and 9E1. Gauge locations are depicted in Figure 46. Table 8 identifies the gauges that are included within the CFA of each active wood stork colony. TABLE 7: GAUGES ANALYZED FOR WHITE IBIS CORE FORAGING AREA WATER DEPTHS Gauge Description 3A3 (Site 63) Northeastern WCA-3A 3A4 (Site 64) Central WCA-3A 3ASW L-28/L-28 tieback area West-central WCA- 3A 3A28 (Site 65) Southern WCA-3A 3B2 (Site 71) Central WCA-3B 3BS1W1 Southeastern WCA-3B B-1-80

89 Ecological Analyses Note: Circles represent the CFA of the colony FIGURE 46: LOCATION OF WHITE IBIS COLONIES AND GAUGES USED FOR EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE MEASURE-H B-1-81

90 Ecological Analyses TABLE 8: LIST OF GAUGES THAT OCCUR WITHIN CORE FORAGING AREA OF THE WHITE IBIS COLONIES IDENTIFIED Colony Name Gauge 3A3 3A4 3ASW 3A28 3B2 3BS1W1 Tamiami West X (NESRS) Mud East (WCA-3B) X X 6 th Bridge X Alley North X Anhinga Alley X X Big Melaleuca X Big Pond X Cypress City X East Central Ag X X Ganga X Heron Alley X X L-67 X X Pocket X Unnamed 2 X West Ag Canal X X West Central Ag X X X The white ibis analysis employed simulated daily stage data for the gauges listed in Table 7 in feet NGVD from the SFWMM monitoring point results. Water depths were obtained by subtracting the average ground elevations (obtained from EDEN and converted to NGVD) from the simulated daily stage in feet of NGVD. Water depths were then converted to centimeters by multiplying values by (30.48 cm = 1 foot). These water depths, now in centimeters, were then used to graph daily foraging depths in Excel. On these graphs, the red-yellow-green light method was used to illustrate annual trends of water depths. Table 9 illustrates the values used for the red-yellow-green light method. Graphs for each gauge are included within this document as Figure 47 through Figure 52. TABLE 9: FORAGING WATER DEPTHS IN CENTIMETERS Water Depth (centimeters) 16 cm -15 to 6 cm 7 to 16 cm 17 to 31 cm 32 cm Note: Using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow sub-optimal Green optimal B-1-82

91 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow sub-optimal Green optimal FIGURE 47: COMPARISON OF WHITE IBIS FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3A-3 B-1-83

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93 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow sub-optimal Green optimal FIGURE 48: COMPARISON OF WHITE IBIS FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3A-4 B-1-85

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95 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow sub-optimal Green optimal FIGURE 49: COMPARISON OF WHITE IBIS FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3A-28 B-1-87

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97 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow sub-optimal Green optimal FIGURE 50: COMPARISON OF WHITE IBIS FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3A-SW B-1-89

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99 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow sub-optimal Green optimal FIGURE 51: COMPARISON OF WHITE IBIS FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3BS1W B-1-91

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101 Ecological Analyses Note: Depths are color-coded using the red-green-yellow method Red undesirable/unavailable Yellow sub-optimal Green optimal FIGURE 52: COMPARISON OF WHITE IBIS FORAGING DEPTHS AMONG EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES AT GAUGE 3B2 B-1-93

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103 Ecological Analyses Tree Islands PM-I (WCA-3A): For tree islands, strive to keep high water peaks less than 10.8 feet, NGVD, not to exceed 10.8 feet, NGVD for more than 60 days per year, and reach water levels less than 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-I, the SFWMM simulated daily WCA- 3AVG stage was used to whether high water peaks in WCA-3A exceeded 10.8 feet, NGVD. From this information the percentage of years in which high water stages exceeded this level was calculated and is presented graphically in Figure 53. For the years in which high water peaks exceeded 10.8 feet, NGVD, the number of days per year in which water exceeded this stage was counted and is presented graphically in Figure 54. In addition, the SFWMM simulated daily stage on December 31 was used to calculate the percentage of years in which the stage was less than 10.3 feet, NGVD. The results are presented in Figure 55. FIGURE 53: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS IN WHICH WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG WATER LEVELS EXCEEDED 10.8 FEET, NGVD (N=36) B-1-95

104 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 54: NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR THAT WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3AVG EXCEEDED 10.8 FEET, NGVD As shown in Figure 53 all of the ERTP action alternatives show a reduction in the percentage of years in which high water peaks exceeded 10.8 feet, NGVD. High water peaks exceeded 10.8 feet, NGVD in 15 of the 36 years under LORS and in 13 of the 36 years under Alternatives 7AB, 8D and 9E1. In addition, for the years in which high water exceeded 10.8 feet, NGVD, Alternative 8D showed the greatest reduction in the number of days. Alternatives 7AB and 9E1 displayed similar results, with Alternative 9E1 performing better in some years. Under LORS, high water peaks were above the recommended December depth in 47 percent of years (17 of 36 years) as compared with 28 percent (10 of 36 years), 19 percent (7 of 36 years) and 17 percent (6 of 36 years) under Alternatives 8D, 9E1 and 7AB, respectively. SFWMM standard PMs were also evaluated for tree island performance in WCA-3A Note: Under Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule and ERTP Action Alternatives. As indicated by SFWMM. Indicator Region 14 = WCA-3A. Figure 56). This figure shows a significant reduction in the number of weeks in which the high water depth criteria for tree islands was exceeded within WCA-3A. In addition, due to the lower of water levels in WCA-3A, it is not surprising that the low water depth criteria increased under each of the ERTP action alternatives. B-1-96

105 Ecological Analyses FIGURE 55: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS IN WHICH WATER LEVELS WERE BELOW 10.3 FEET, NGVD BY DECEMBER 31 (N=36) B-1-97

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107 Ecological Analyses Note: Under Lake Okeechobee Regulation Schedule and ERTP Action Alternatives. As indicated by SFWMM. Indicator Region 14 = WCA-3A. FIGURE 56: NUMBER OF WEEKS IN WHICH THE HIGH/LOW WATER DEPTH CRITERIA WERE EXCEEDED IN INDICATOR REGION 14 RANKING OF EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ALTERNATIVES ERTP alternatives were ranked and a TSP was chosen based upon each alternatives performance with respect to the ERTP PMs and ETs, along with the FWS MSTS (Figure 2). Other factors that were considered but were not part of the selection of the TSP included: water quality, water supply, minimum flows and levels, and impacts to the estuaries and bays. Further information on these items is detailed within Section 4.0, of the 2010 ERTP Draft EIS. SFWMM results have been posted to a public FTP site and may be accessed using the following link: htm B-1-99

108 Ecological Analyses Alternatives were ranked from one to four with respect to each ERTP PM or ET using the results provided in Figure 7 through Figure 55, with one indicating highest performance and four indicating lowest performance. The percent of time that each alternative would have met the recommendation of the PM or ET, and its subsequent rank are provided in Table 10. Numbers highlighted in yellow indicate highest performance. It is important to note that the highest percentage does not always equate to the highest performance. For example, for PM- D, the highest percentage meeting the recommended recession rate received a one. In comparison, for PM-D, the highest percentage received a four if the recession rate was greater or slower than recommended. In this situation, the best performer was the alternative in which the recession rate was greater or slower than recommended in the least number of years. To further compare SFWMM results and select a TSP, the alternatives were compared with respect to the percentage of years in which they meet the FWS MSTS recommended depths during the wet season (September 15 October 15), pre-breeding season (January 1) and dry season low (May 1-30). These results are presented in Note: Depth ranges as recommended by FWS MSTS for pre-breeding (January 1) and dry-season low (May 1-30) Figure 57. It is important to note that the results were tabulated using the recommended seasonal range (FIGURE 2, blue boxes) that encompasses the needs of multiple species within WCA-3A (refer to Appendix E). As shown in Note: Depth ranges as recommended by FWS MSTS for pre-breeding (January 1) and dry-season low (May 1-30) Figure 57, Alternative 9E1 had the highest performance during the pre-breeding season and Alternatives 9E1 and 8D performed better than LORS or Alternative 7AB during the dry season low. An increase was seen with the three action alternatives in the percentage of years in which water depths were below the recommended range during the dry season low. This increase was anticipated in light of lowering Zone A of the regulation schedule. In addition, it is important to note that ERTP, ET-3 recommends a one in four to one in five year dry down event in order to promote regeneration of marsh vegetation. Table 11 compares ERTP SFWMM results in relation to the FWS MSTS recommended seasonal water stages in WCA-3A. Numbers indicate the percentage of years (N=36) in which the MSTS Recommended WCA-3A Stage would have been achieved under alternative. Numbers highlighted in yellow indicate highest performance. Ranking is from one to four with one indicating the highest performance and four indicating the lowest performance. B-1-100

109 Ecological Analyses TABLE 10: COMPARISON OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RUNS AND EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN PERFORMANCE MEASURES AND ECOLOGICAL TARGETS ERTP-1 Performance Measures (PM) and Ecological Targets (ET) LORS Run 7AB Run 8D Run 9E1 % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow PM-A. NP-205 (CSSS-A): Provide a minimum of 60 consecutive days at NP-205 below 6.0 feet, NGVD beginning no later than March 15. PM-A. (60 dry days) 67% 1* 67% 1* 64% 2* 64% 2* PM-A. (March 15) 61% 2 64% 1 64% 1 64% 1 ET-1. NP-205 (CSSS-A): Strive to reach a water level of less than or equal to 7.0 feet, NGVD at NP 205 by December 31 for nesting season water levels to reach 89% 1 89% 1 89% 1 89% feet, NGVD by mid-march. ET-2. CSSS: Strive to maintain a hydroperiod between 90 and 210 days (three to seven months) per year throughout sparrow habitat to maintain marl prairie vegetation. C. CSSS-A C. CSSS-B C. CSSS-C C. CSSS-D C. CSSS-E C. CSSS-F Everglade Snail Kite PM-B. WCA-3A: For snail kites, strive to reach waters levels between 9.8 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31, and between 8.8 and 9.3 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1. B-1-101

110 Ecological Analyses ERTP-1 Performance Measures (PM) and Ecological Targets (ET) LORS Run 7AB Run 8D Run 9E1 % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank PM-B. Water levels between 9.8 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31 44% 3 50% 2 44% 3 53% 1 PM-B. Water levels between 8.8 and 9.3 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1 36% 3 33% 4 42% 2 43% 1 PM-C. WCA-3A. For apple snails, strive to reach water levels between 9.7 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31 and between 8.7 and 9.7 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1. PM-C. Water levels between 9.7 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31 39% 4 50% 3 53% 2 61% 1 PM-C. Water levels between 8.7 and 9.7 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1 47% 2 44% 3 53% 1 53% 1 PM-D. WCA-3A (Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.05 feet per week from January 1 to June 1 (or onset of the wet season). This equates to a stage difference of approximately 1.0 feet between January and the dry season low. PM-D. Recession Rate (Recommended) 8% 3 9% 2 12% 1 9% 2 PM-D. Recession Rate (Too Fast) 31% 3 26% 1 33% 4 29% 2 PM-D. Recession Rate (Faster than Recommended) 34% 3 36% 4 31% 1 33% 2 PM-D. Recession Rate (Slower than Recommended) 15% 2 17% 3 14% 1 19% 4 PM-D. Recession Rate (Rising Water) 12% 3 12% 3 9% 1 10% 2 PM-D. January 1 to June 1 Stage Difference (Too Great/Higher than Recommended) 75% 2 53% 1 81% 3 75% 2 B-1-102

111 Ecological Analyses ERTP-1 Performance Measures (PM) and Ecological Targets (ET) PM-D. January 1 to June 1 Stage Difference (Recommended/Lower than Recommended) PM-E. WCA-3A (Wet Season Rate of Rise): Manage for a monthly rate of rise less than or equal to 0.25 feet per week to avoid drowning of apple snail egg clusters. LORS Run 7AB Run 8D Run 9E1 % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank 25% 2 47% 1 19% 3 25% 2 98% 1 98% 1 98% 1 98% 1 ET-3. WCA-3A (Dry Years): Strive to maintain optimal snail kite foraging habitat by allowing water levels to fall below ground surface level between one in four and one in five years (208 to 260 weeks average flood duration) between May 1 and June 1 to promote NA 2 NA 2 NA 1 NA 1 regenerations of marsh vegetation. Do not allow water levels below ground surface for more than four to six weeks to minimize adverse effects on apple snail survival. Wood Stork and Wading Birds PM-F. WCA-3A (Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.07 feet per week, with an optimal range of 0.06 to 0.07 feet per week, from January 1 to June 1. PM-F. Recession Rate (Recommended) 16% 2 18% 1 16% 2 18% 1 PM-F. Recession Rate (Too Fast) 2% 1 2% 1 3% 2 3% 2 PM-F. Recession Rate (Faster than 49% 3 42% 1 46% 2 42% 1 Recommended) PM-F. Recession Rate (Slower than 28% 1 32% 3 32% 3 31% 2 Recommended) PM-F. Recession Rate (Rising Water) 5% 2 6% 3 4% 1 5% 2 B-1-103

112 Ecological Analyses ERTP-1 Performance Measures (PM) and Ecological Targets (ET) PM-G. WCA-3A (Dry Season): Strive to maintain areas of appropriate foraging depths (5 to 25 cm) within the Core Foraging Area (18.6 mile radius, CFA) of any active wood stork colony PM-H. WCA-3A (Dry Season): Strive to maintain areas of appropriate foraging depths (5 to 15 cm) within the Core Foraging Area (seven to nine mile radius) of any active white ibis or snowy egret colony. Tree Islands PM-I. WCA-3A: For tree islands, strive to keep high water peaks less than 10.8 feet, NGVD, not to exceed 10.8 feet, NGVD for more than 60 days per year, and reach water levels less than 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31. PM-I. High water peaks greater than 10.8 feet, NGVD PM-I. High water peaks greater than or equal to 10.8 feet, NGVD for more than 60 days LORS Run 7AB Run 8D Run 9E1 % Rank % Rank % Rank % Rank NA 2 NA 2 NA 1 NA 1 NA 2 NA 2 NA 1 NA 1 42% 2 36% 1 36% 1 36% 1 NA 4 NA 3 NA 1 NA 2 PM-I. Water levels less than 10.3 feet, NGVD 53% 4 83% 1 72% 3 81% 2 Note: Numbers indicate percentage of years (N=36) in which the PM or ET would have been met under each model run. Numbers highlighted in yellow indicate highest performance. Ranking is from one to four with one indicating the highest performance and four indicating the lowest performance. B-1-104

113 Ecological Analyses Note: Depth ranges as recommended by FWS MSTS for pre-breeding (January 1) and dry-season low (May 1-30) FIGURE 57: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS IN WHICH WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3A WATER DEPTHS ARE WITHIN, ABOVE OR BELOW RECOMMENDED DEPTH RANGE ERTP Draft Environmental Impact Statement January 2011 B1-105

114 Ecological Analyses TABLE 11: COMPARISON OF EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSPORTATION PLAN SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS IN RELATION TO U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE S MULTI-SPECIES TRANSITION STRATEGY RECOMMENDED SEASONAL WATER STAGES IN WATER CONSERVATION AREA-3A SFWMM FWS MSTS Wet Season High Water Recommendation (15 September 15 October) : WCA- 3AVG less than feet NGVD FWS MSTS Pre-Breeding Season Recommendation (1 January): WCA-3AVG 9.5 to 10.4 feet NGVD FWS MSTS Pre- Breeding Season Recommendation (1 May to 30 May): WCA-3AVG 8.4 to 9.3 feet NGVD % Rank % Rank % Rank LORS 58% 2 61% 4 53% 2 Alternative 64% 1 64% 3 53% 2 7AB Alternative 64% 1 67% 2 56% 1 8D Alternative 9E1 64% 1 75% 1 56% 1 Note: Numbers indicate the percentage of years (N=36) in which the MSTS Recommended WCA-3A Stage would have been achieved under each model run. Numbers highlighted in yellow indicate highest performance. Ranking is from one to four with one indicating the highest performance and four indicating the lowest performance. EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN TENTATIVELY SELECTED PLAN In order to select a TSP, the total numbers each alternative received within each category were tallied and are presented in Table 12. As with the previous tables, ranking is from one to four with one indicative of highest performance and four indicative of lowest performance. As shown in Table 12, Alternative 9E1 scored greatest number of ones and twos. Based upon the SFWMM and ecological analysis results, Alternative 9E1 best met the ERTP objectives, PMs and ETs and therefore is the ERTP TSP. TABLE 12: RANKING SUMMARY TABLE OF EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS SFWMM 2x2 Model Run Total Number In Each Ranking Category Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3 Rank 4 LORS Alternative 7AB Alternative 8D Alternative 9E Note: Total numbers in each category represent the ranking scores in Tables 10 and 11. Ranking is from one to four with one indicating the highest performance and four indicating the lowest performance. B-1-106

115 Spreadsheet Analysis APPENDIX B-2 ECOLOGICAL EVALUATION OF WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A ANALYSIS FOR CHAPTER 3 ALTERNATIVES B-2-i

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117 Spreadsheet Analysis Everglades Restoration Transition Plan Ecological Evaluation of Water Conservation Area 3A Spreadsheet Analysis OBJECTIVES, PERFORMANCE MEASURES AND ECOLOGICAL TARGETS The ove rall a ction obj ective of Everglades R estoration T ransition P lan (ERTP) is to maximize o perational f lexibilities in o rder to i mprove c onditions f or E verglade s nail ki te, wood s tork a nd ot her w ading bi rds a nd t heir ha bitats i n s outh F lorida, while ma intaining nesting season requirements for the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS), along with Central and S outh F lorida ( C&SF) Project pur poses. In or der t o a chieve t he a ction obj ective, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), in conjunction with the multi-agency ERTP team, developed performance measures (PMs) and ecological t argets ( ETs) f or ea ch s pecies an d t heir h abitat. PMs ar e defined as a s et o f operational rules that identify optimal Water Conservation Area (WCA) 3A water stages and recession rates to improve conditions in WCA-3A for snail kite, wood stork, wading birds and tree islands. ETs are designed to support the intention of the PMs. Figure B-2-1 shows the locations of the gauges specified within the ERTP PMs and ETs. Since t he W CA-3A Water Budget Spreadsheet Analysis can only simulate stages within WCA-3A, only WCA- 3A PMs were evaluated. B-2-1

118 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: Gauge locations as referenced in the ERTP PMs and ETs FIGURE B-2-1: LOCATIONS OF GAUGES WITHIN EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN ACTION AREA B-2-2

119 Spreadsheet Analysis WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A PERFORMANCE MEASURES EVALUATED Note: All stages for WCA-3A are as measured at WCA-3- gauge average (WCA-3AVG) (Sites 63, 64, 65). Everglade Snail Kite/Apple Snail A. WCA-3A: For snail kites, strive to reach waters levels between 9.8 and 10.3 feet, National Geodetic Vertical Datum (NGVD) by December 31, and between 8.8 and 9.3 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1. B. WCA-3A: For apple snails, strive to reach water levels between 9.7 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31 and between 8.7 and 9.7 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1. C. WCA-3A (Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.05 feet per week from January 1 to June 1 (or onset of the wet season). This equates to a stage difference of approximately 1.0 feet between January and the dry season low. D. WCA-3A (Wet Season Rate of Rise): Manage for a monthly rate of rise less than or equal to 0.25 feet per week to avoid drowning of apple snail egg clusters. Wood Stork/Wading Birds E. WCA-3A (Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.07 feet per week, with an optimal range of 0.06 to 0.07 feet per week, from January 1 to June 1. Tree Islands I. WCA-3A: For tree islands, strive to keep high water peaks less than 10.8 feet, NGVD, not to exceed 10.8 feet, NGVD for more than 60 days per year, and reach water levels less than 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31. U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE MULTI-SPECIES TRANSITION STRATEGY FWS a long w ith D r. K itchens, P hil D arby, P h.d. of t he U niversity of West F lorida, and Christa Zweig, P h.d. o f t he U niversity o f F lorida, de veloped a s eries of w ater de pth recommendations f or W CA-3A t hat a ddresses t he ne eds of t he s nail ki te, a pple s nail a nd vegetation characteristic of their habitat (Figure B-2-2). This water management strategy is divided into three time periods representing the height of the wet season (September 15 t o October 15), the pre-breeding season (January) and the breeding season (termed dry season low, M ay 1 t o J une 1) and i llustrates a ppropriate w ater d epths to a ttain w ithin e ach time period. Water depth recommendations as measured at the WCA-3AVG proposed within the FWS M ulti-species T ransition S trategy ( MSTS) f orm t he ba sis f or E RTP P Ms a nd E Ts. These recommendations and their proposed intent are included in Appendix F. Please note that these water depths are not targets and represent a compromise between the needs of the three s pecies. Inter-annual v ariability is extremely imp ortant in th e m anagement o f th e system to promote recovery of the species. B-2-3

120 Spreadsheet Analysis FIGURE B-2-2: U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE MULTI-SPECIES TRANSITION STRATEGY FOR WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A B-2-4

121 Spreadsheet Analysis WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A WATER BUDGET SPREADSHEET ANALYSIS Note: Refer to Appendix A-2 for Spreadsheet Analysis description, methodology and results. ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL RESULTS OF EVERGLADES RESTORATION TRANSITION PLAN PERFORMANCE MEASURES WCA-3A W ater B udget S preadsheet r esults w ere u sed t o c ompare pe rformance of alternatives in relation to the ERTP PMs and ETs in order to illustrate potential operational flexibility within each alternative. A ll calculations are based upon the three-year Period of Record (POR). Everglade Snail Kite/Apple Snail PM-B (WCA-3A): For snail kites, strive to reach waters levels between 9.8 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31, and between 8.8 and 9.3 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-B, the simulated daily WCA-3AVG stage was used to determine whether WCA-3A would have been within the recommended ranges by December 31 and between May 1 and June 1 f or each year within the POR. From this information, t he pe rcentage of years i n w hich t he s tage w as w ithin t hose r ecommended within PM-B was calculated and bar graphs created. Figure B-2-3 illustrates the percentage of years i n w hich W CA-3AVG w as be tween 9.8 a nd 10.3 f eet, NGVD b y D ecember 3 1. Figure B-2-4 shows the percentage of m onths i n w hich t he W CA-3AVG wa s wi thin t he recommended stage between May 1 and June 1. In this calculation, both the minimum and maximum WCA-3AVG stage were used in the calculations, thus all numbers were divided by six to cal culate t he p ercent o f m onths i n w hich w ater d epths were b etween t he recommended range between May 1 a nd June 1. Figure B-2-5 compares the WCA-3AVG stage between alternatives on December 31 and between May 1 and June 1. B-2-1

122 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. FIGURE B-2-3: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A IS WITHIN RECOMMENDED DEPTHS FOR SNAIL KITES BY DECEMBER 31. (N=3) B-2-2

123 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. FIGURE B-2-4: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A IS WITHIN RECOMMENDED DEPTHS FOR SNAIL KITES BETWEEN MAY 1 AND JUNE 1. (N=3) B-2-3

124 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. FIGURE B-2-5: COMPARISON OF WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A STAGE FOR DECEMBER 31 AND BETWEEN MAY 1 AND JUNE 1 B-2-4

125 Spreadsheet Analysis PM-C (WCA-3A): For apple snails, strive to reach water levels between 9.7 and 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31 and between 8.7 and 9.7 feet, NGVD between May 1 and June 1. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-C, the simulated daily WCA-3AVG stage was used to determine whether WCA-3A would have been within the recommended ranges by December 31 and between May 1 and June 1 f or each year within the POR. From this information, t he pe rcentage of years i n w hich t he s tage w as w ithin t hose r ecommended within PM-C was calculated and bar graphs created. Figure B-2-6 illustrates the percentage of years i n w hich W CA-3AVG w as be tween 9.8 a nd 10.3 f eet, NGVD b y D ecember 3 1. Figure B-2-7 shows the percentage of m onths i n w hich t he W CA-3AVG wa s wi thin t he recommended stage between May 1 and June 1. In this calculation, both the minimum and maximum WCA-3AVG stage were used in the calculations, thus all numbers were divided by six to cal culate t he p ercent o f m onths i n w hich w ater d epths were b etween t he recommended range between May 1 a nd June 1. Figure B-2-8 compares the WCA-3AVG stage between alternatives on December 31 and between May 1 and June 1. B-2-5

126 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. FIGURE B-2-6: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A IS WITHIN RECOMMENDED DEPTHS FOR APPLE SNAILS BY DECEMBER 31 (N=3) B-2-6

127 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. FIGURE B-2-7: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A IS WITHIN RECOMMENDED DEPTHS FOR APPLE SNAILS BETWEEN MAY 1 AND JUNE 1. (N=3) B-2-7

128 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. FIGURE B-2-8: COMPARISON OF WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A STAGE FOR DECEMBER 31 AND BETWEEN MAY 1 AND JUNE 1 B-2-8

129 Spreadsheet Analysis PM-D (WCA-3A, Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.05 feet per week from January 1 to June 1 (or onset of the wet season). This equates to a stage difference of approximately 1.0 feet between January and the dry season low. In order to compare alternatives in relation to PM-D, the South Florida Water Management Model ( SFWMM) simulated daily W CA-3AVG s tage w as u sed t o cal culate t he av erage January 1 to June 1 weekly recession rate and stage difference. A verage weekly recession rates w ere c alculated f or t he m onths of January t hrough May f or ea ch o f t he three years (N=15). T he calculated average weekly recession rates were then color-coded according to the FWS MSTS recommended recession rate guide. Figure B-2-9 depicts the percentage of years in which the recession rates fell within each category of the FWS MSTS guide. For annual stage difference, the simulated WCA-3AVG stage on June 1 was subtracted from the simulated WCA-3AVG stage on January 1 for each of the three years. The FWS MSTS recommended recession rate guide was used to categorize the calculated stage differences to indicate if the stage difference was lower than, within, or higher than the recommended stage difference. The recommended stage difference categories were calculated by multiplying the FWS MSTS recommended weekly recession rates by 20, t he approximate number of weeks between January 1 and June 1. For example, according to the FWS MSTS, weekly recession rates of 0.06 t o 0.09 f eet pe r w eek a re c onsidered a cceptable under c ertain en vironmental conditions. M ultiplying 0.06 a nd 0.09 b y 20 w ould e quate t o a 1.2 to 1.8 f oot stage difference. Figure B-2-10 depicts the percentage of years in which the WCA-3AVG January 1 to June 1 stage difference is within the recommended depths for snail kites. B-2-9

130 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG for period of January 1 to June 1. FIGURE B-2-9: PERCENTAGE OF MONTHS WHEN THE AVERAGE WEEKLY RECESSION RATE WAS WITHIN THE RECOMMENDED RANGE FOR THE SNAIL KITE (N=15) B-2-10

131 Spreadsheet Analysis FIGURE B-2-10: WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A 3-GAUGE AVERAGE JANUARY 1 TO JUNE 1 STAGE DIFFERENCE B-2-11

132 Spreadsheet Analysis PM-E (WCA-3A, Wet Season Rate of Rise): Manage for a monthly rate of rise less than or equal to 0.25 feet per week to avoid drowning of apple snail egg clusters. In order to compare alternatives in relation to P M-E, the S FWMM simulated daily WCA- 3AVG stage was used to calculate average weekly ascension rates for the months of February through N ovember f or e ach of t he 36 years ( N=360). F rom t his da ta, t he pe rcentage of months i n w hich t he W CA-3AVG av erage w eekly ascension r ate w as w ithin t he recommended range for apple snails between February and November was calculated and is depicted in Figure B A s highlighted in Figure B-2-11, there is no difference among the ERTP alternatives for PM-E. B-2-12

133 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. FIGURE B-2-11: PERCENTAGE OF MONTHS WHEN THE WEEKLY ASCENSION RATE IS WITHIN THE RECOMMENDED RANGE FOR APPLE SNAILS BETWEEN FEBRUARY AND NOVEMBER (N=30) B-2-13

134 Spreadsheet Analysis Wood Stork/Wading Birds PM-F (WCA-3A, Dry Season Recession Rate): Strive to maintain a recession rate of 0.07 feet per week, with an optimal range of 0.06 to 0.07 feet per week, from January 1 to June 1. In or der t o c ompare a lternatives i n r elation t o P M-F, th e S FWMM s imulated d aily W CA- 3AVG stage was used to calculate the January 1 to June 1 average weekly recession rate and stage difference. A verage weekly recession rates were calculated for the months of January through M ay f or e ach o f t he 3 6 years ( N=180). T he cal culated average w eekly r ecession rates were then color-coded according to the FWS MSTS recommended recession rate guide. Figure B-2-12 depicts the percentage of years in which the recession rates fell within each category of the FWS MSTS guide. B-2-14

135 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG for the period of January 1 to June 1. FIGURE B-2-12: PERCENTAGE OF WEEKS WHEN THE AVERAGE WEEKLY RECESSION RATE WAS WITHIN THE RECOMMENDED RANGE FOR THE WOOD STORK. (N=66) B-2-15

136 Spreadsheet Analysis Tree Islands PM-I (WCA-3A): For tree islands, strive to keep high water peaks less than 10.8 feet NGVD, not to exceed 10.8 feet, NGVD for more than 60 days per year, and reach water levels less than 10.3 feet, NGVD by December 31. In or der t o c ompare a lternatives i n r elation t o P M-I, t he S FWMM si mulated d aily W CA- 3AVG stage was used to whether high water peaks in WCA-3A exceeded 10.8 feet, NGVD. From this information the percentage of years in which high water stages exceeded this level was calculated and is presented graphically in Figure B F or the years in which high water p eaks ex ceeded f eet, NGVD, t he number of da ys pe r year i n w hich w ater exceeded this stage was counted and is presented graphically in Figure B In addition, the SFWMM simulated daily stage on December 31 was used to calculate the percentage of years i n w hich t he s tage w as l ess t han 10.3 f eet, NGVD. T he r esults ar e p resented i n Figure B Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. N=3; Water Years 1 October to 30 September. FIGURE B-2-13: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS IN WHICH HIGH WATER PEAKS EXCEEDED 10.8 FEET, NATIONAL GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM IN WATER CONSERVATION AREA 3A B-2-16

137 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. FIGURE B-2-14: NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR IN WHICH WATER LEVELS EXCEEDED 10.8 FEET, NATIONAL GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM B-2-17

138 Spreadsheet Analysis Note: As measured at WCA-3AVG. FIGURE B-2-15: PERCENTAGE OF YEARS IN WHICH WATER LEVELS WERE BELOW 10.3 FEET, NATIONAL GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM BY DECEMBER 31. (N=3) B-2-18