Long Term Trends in Electric Power

Transcription

1 Long Term Trends in Electric Power STEVEN J. SMITH 2030 Global Emission Scenarios Workshop International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria October 9, 2012 PNNL- SA- xxxx

2 Introduction! Electric power sector is particularly important for SO 2 and NO x.! SO 2 emissions can change relatively quickly. Uncertainty increases significantly after about a decade.! NO x emissions don t change as quickly.! There are two major uncertainties in projecting emissions from this sector! Overall demand rapidly increasing in some countries, therefore particularly uncertain.! Generation mix, particularly fraction of renewables.! Retirement assumptions will impact emissions in the near term! Older plants, particularly older coal plants, are the super-emitters of this sector. These plants are less efficient and often don t warrant investment in control technologies (often not used for baseload any more). The authors are grateful for research support provided by EPA. We also thank the Integrated Assessment Research Program in the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy for long-term support that enabled the development of the Global Change Assessment Model, which was used to develop the RCP scenarios.

3 Electricity Demand Consumption (EJ)! 500! 400! 300! 200! 100! Total Electricity Consumption! Reference! GCAM31_4pt5! GCAM31_3pt7! GCAM31_2pt6! 0!!""#$!"%#$!"!#$!"&#$!"'#$!"##$!"(#$!")#$!"*#$!"+#$,-./$ Steady growth through the century. Generally higher growth in climate policy scenarios shift to electricity in order to reduce emissions. shift becomes more substantial in 2 nd half of the century October 9,

4 Electricity Demand Total Electricity Consumption (GCAM Ref) 60 N America 50 Europe Consumption (EJ) China, SE Asia, India FSU Middle East China SE Asia India Year Latin America Africa Other OECD Large growth in some developing regions. Growth in Asia in the near-term October 9,

5 Consumption Increment (EJ\yr)! Electric Supply Additions 1.0! 0.8! 0.5! 0.3! 0.0! Gross Electric Generation Additions! China, SE Asia, India Africa, LaBn America!""#$!"%#$!"!#$!"&#$!"'#$!"##$!"(#$!")#$!"*#$!"+#$,-./$ N America! Europe! FSU! Middle East! China! SE Asia! India! Latin America! Africa! Other OECD! Graph gives indica/on of new plants. Over next few decades, large amount of new plants in Asia characteristics of new plants will have substantial impact on nearterm emissions. Africa and Latin America start growing more rapidly nearer to midcentury in this scenario. 5

6 Renewable Energy Shares Shares from literature (Krey & Clarke 2011) A wide range of renewable penetration in 2020, even in baseline scenarios. -- This will have a direct impact on pollutant emissions. -- Wind has the largest impact on the near-term in these scenarios. -- A climate policy increases renewable penetration.

7 Gl Glo Generation Structure d Reference other hydro 400 nuclear biomass coal gas oil % 80% % 60% % 40% % 20% Fig RCP 4.5 Climatic Change 100% Electricity Production (EJ/yr) GDP in 2 10% other hydro nuclear biomass w/ccs biomass coal w/ccs coal gas w/ccs gas oil w/ccs oil urban rock/ice/dese rt tundra forest pasture biomass crops % type scenario Electricity generation by technology in the RCP Kyoto gas forcing rather than totaldrivers, radiative forcing. Thus, primary the two scenarios, Fig. 1 GCAM reference scenario results showing stabilized a global GDP and population b global while similar, are not exactly alike. The Energy Modeling Forum 22 study (Clarke et al. 2 energy consumption by fuel source, c global electricity and d global allocation of stabilization scenarios, one with all countries participating 2009) production included two 4.5by Wmtechnology, While the reference case generation remains fossil dominant, the climate policy immediately and another with delayed participation by some regions. As with the CCSP, the land among major land cover and land use categories EMF 22 stabilization scenarios focus on Kyoto gas forcing and not total radiative forcing. scenario transitions to a low zero carbon electric sector. Nonetheless, we compare the RCP4.5 to the CCSP and EMF22 scenarios (Fig. 9). We have highlighted the RCP4.5 and the scenario on which it was based (CCSP RCP4.5 Marker) in Fig. 10. Population in the RCP4.5 (Fig. 10a) is among the lowest of the scenarios considered. There are six EMF 22 scenarios and one CCSP scenario with similar population trajectories to the RCP4.5; however, it should be noted that all of these scenarios were produced by integrated assessment models from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.6 However, the range in population estimates in 2100 across the 28 scenarios is small; the largest population estimate is only 20% higher than the lowest. Global GDP (Fig. 10b) varies more significantly across the 28 scenarios. The highest GDP estimate in 2100 is more than double the lowest estimate. The RCP4.5 and the CCSP Low Carbon Gen Electricity Production (EJ/yr) c 100

8 Electric Power Sector Emissions Emissons (Tg)! 60! 50! 40! 30! 20! Electric Power Sector Emissions (GCAM Ref & RCP4.5)! SO 2 GCAM RCP4.5 - Electricity! GCAM Ref - Electricity! GAINS Energy Sector! 10! NO x 0!!"""#!"$"#!"!"#!"%"#!"&"#!"'"#!"("#!")"#!"*"#!"+"#!$""#,-./# Sulfur emissions from this sector are negligible by the end of the century. Low carbon electricity has little or no sulfur emissions NO x emissions decrease substantially by the end of the century. CCS and natural gas turbines still emit some NO x 8

9 Questions! Climate policy case as an alternative scenario?! Climate policy begins to alter emissions even by Should a climate policy case be in the mix? Certainly as a discussion/reference point.! Idealized scenarios of global carbon policy starting in 2020 may not be appropriate.! Since HTAP is concerned with near-term scenarios, emissions differences across different policy ascension scenarios would be considered. (Some recent studies on such scenarios are available.)! Impact of some new fossil technologies adds additional uncertainty.! Limited practical experience with IGCC and CCS technologies on a large scale. While SO 2 emissions will certainty be quite small, are we representing NO x emissions well enough?! This has limited importance over the near term, but are increasingly important later.! Should assess this.

10 Thank You