Brunei. Present Society. Prepared by Clean Air Asia

Transcription

1 Brunei Prepared by Clean Air Asia Present Society Urban Rural Figure 1. Population (s) Female Male 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - 8% 6% 4% 2% % Figure 2. Population by Age (s), 2 Figure 3. GDP/Capita (25 Constant USD) 3 Service, etc., value added (% of GDP) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) Industry, value added (% of GDP) INTRODUCTION Brunei Darussalam is located at the north coast of Borneo, and completely surrounded by the Sarawak State of Malaysia, aside from its coastline with the South China Sea Brunei s land area is 5,765 sq. km. and has a coastline of 161 km. The country is divided into four districts and 38 sub-districts, which are called mukims or wards. POPULATION Brunei s population (213) is currently about thousand people. It has grown at an average of 2.14% per annum from 199 to 213. It is estimated that 76.68% of the population are presently in the urban areas. (UN 212 and 211). AGE STRUCTURE 59% of the population are in the working age of Only 3% of the population are 65 years old and above. (UN 212) GDP per CAPITA GDP per capita currently stands at USD 4,617 (25 constant USD), the second highest in the region. It increased at an average rate of 5.59% from 199 to 213 (WB 212). It has grown particularly strong in the period 22-, averaging an annual growth rate of 11.1%. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE In 28, the industrial sector contributed 74% of the total GDP in Brunei and has been increasing since 21 (WB 212). Agriculture has not been a significant sector in terms of contribution to the economy. 8% of Brunei s food requirements are imported from other countries (Brunei Economic Development Board). The services sector contributed 26% of the GDP. However, its percentage contribution has declined, as it stood at 47% in Crude oil and natural gas production account for a significantly large fraction of Brunei s exports, Hydrocarbon resources account for 9% of its total exports. Apart from mining, and domestic and foreign investments, Brunei s economy depends largely on the oil and gas sectors. According to Brunei Economic Development Board, the country is the 4th largest oil producer in the region and the 9th largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the world. Figure 4. % Contribution of Sectors to the GDP 4 1 United Nations. 212 and United Nations United Nations World Bank Ibid.

2 Present Transport Bus, 4% Car, 57% Figure 5. Passenger Transport Mode Share (% of PKM), PASSENGER TRANSPORT As of, passenger transport is at an estimated 1.9 billion passenger-kilometers. Passenger transport has increased by 4.3% per year between 25 and. Road transport (primarily cars) serves 57% of passenger transport and already dominates the road transport of Brunei. Public transport services are limited in Brunei, and car ownership in Brunei is about one car for every two persons, or two cars per household at least. Taxis barely exist as they are expensive and usually un-metered, with less than a hundred fleets and mostly serving those originating from the airport or major shopping malls. FREIGHT TRANSPORT freight transport is at an estimated 7.2 billion ton-kilometers, which are largely dominated by trucks. Freight transport increased by an average of 1.16% per year between 25 and. Truck, Figure 6. Freight Transport Mode Share (% of TKM), Table 1. Population of Road Vehicles () Passenger Mode No. of Vehicles Percent Car 181, Bus 1, W/3W 2, Freight Truck 9,848 5 ISSUES AND CHALLENGES Brunei is a top exporter of oil and gas, accounting for 67% of its domestic income. However, the country is depleting its natural resources. APEC estimates that the oil reserves will last about 25 years and the gas reserves will last about 4 years (APEC, 213) For transport, this means that car use should be re-evaluated and policies that would promote new technology must be advanced. Buses are the country s main mode of public transport. They face challenges in ridership as they provides limited information to the commuters, and passengers note the irregularity of services (Oxford Business Group, 213). Brunei has the highest car motorization index in Southeast Asia at 452/1 people (). Future Society VISIONS The future of Brunei will largely be driven by Wawasan or Vision, which define three goals: to ensure well-educated, highly-skilled and accomplished Bruneians; to ensure a high quality of life; and to build a dynamic and sustainable economy. Policy directions have been identified in the first Outline of Strategies and Policy for Development (27-217): education, economy, security, institutional organisation, local business development, infrastructure, social security, and environment. According to the Wawasan Brunei, it will widen the economic base by and move away from being overly dependent on the oil and gas sectors Priority sectors indicated in the plans are the following: hospitality, finance, agriculture, halal products and software development Urban Rural POPULATION It is estimated that in, there will be 545, people in the country. The population will grow at an average of.88% per annum from % of the population will be living in urban areas by. Growth in the urban population is higher than the total at 1.23% per annum from 25- (UN,212 and UN,211). Figure 7. Population (s) 5 5 United Nations. 212 and United Nations, 211.

3 , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Figure 8. Population by Age (s), 6 Female Male AGE STRUCTURE 57% of the population will be in the working age of 2-64 in. By, 22% of their population will be 65 years old and above (UN, 212). GDP per CAPITA GDP per capita is projected to increase to USD 14,56 (25 constant USD) in. It is forecasted to grow at an average of 3.59% per annum from the period ECONOMY The oil and gas sector has been the backbone of the economy of Brunei, but with contractions in energy production and depletion in natural resources, Brunei is looking for ways to diversity its economy. Oil reserves are estimated to last up to 25 years and the natural gas reserves are expected to last up to 4 years, according to APEC Energy Supply and Demand Outlook 5 th edition. Figure 9. GDP/Capita Projections up to 7 Future Transport PLANS AND VISIONS A land transport master plan for Brunei has been completed. It primarily focuses on improving the public transport system to address two goals: reduce Brunei s dependence on private cars as well as improve their energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. By, Brunei envisions road systems incorporating bus, bicycle lanes as well as walkways Figure 1. Passenger Travel (billion PKM), Figure 11. Passenger Mode Shares, PASSENGER TRANSPORT Under the scenario, passenger transport will increase to 18.2 billion passenger kilometers by, less than double the current passenger traveled distance. The alternative suggests a reduction of PKM to 6.8 billion passenger kilometers, due to the impacts of avoid policies. Future transport in Brunei under the alternative suggests travel by high quality and high level of service LRT/MRT and buses. Reducing car travel demand is key: approving and implementing the plans for MRT in the country will be important in dissuading the future population from using cars. The rising public awareness of depleting natural resources might catalyze such a move. 8% 6% 4% 2% % 46% 53% 25% 57% 17% LRT PassRail 2W/3W Bus SUV LV Car 6 Ibid. 7 ADBI. 212 and United Nations, ADBI, 212 and United Nations, 212.

4 thousand tons CO2 thousand tons CO tons/capita % 6% 4% 2% Truck % Figure 12. Freight Travel (billion TKM), Figure 13. Freight Mode Shares, FREIGHT TRANSPORT Meanwhile, freight transport is expected to increase to 7.2 billion ton-kilometers in under the scenario. The alternative suggests a reduction of freight trip distance to 3.7 billion ton-kilometers in. All of future domestic freight travels is expected to be on trucks. Future trucks are seen to run on alternative fuels as well, especially CNG trucks and hybrid trucks. ISSUES AND CHALLENGES The depletion of natural resources will be the biggest pressure on the transport sector. When crude oil becomes scarce in 3 years, Brunei will have to look for alternative sources of energy both locally and internationally. Results of Simulation ,6 1,4 1,2 1, Alternative scenario Figure 14. Tons CO2/capita Figure 15. Total CO2 In the scenario, the largest emitters in Brunei will be cars and trucks. Cars will contribute up to 33% of all transport emissions in as citizens continue to utilize cars as their primary mode choice in the future. Although car ownership shows signs of saturation, car use will continue to be the top cause of emissions in the transport sector of Brunei. The total CO2 emissions from transport in () is 1.4 million tons. The simulation of alternative policies suggests a mitigation potential from 2.66 tco2 per capita to.45 tco2 per capita for transport. The first step to CO2 mitigation in Brunei is the strengthening of public transport. In Brunei, interest rates on car loans are low and automobile purchases are subsidized. It is recommended that such policies be put in place to incentivize public transport in the country. Shifting away from crude oil dependency is both a challenge and an opportunity for Brunei. Brunei may have to begin converting to public transport that runs on their LNG. Unfortunately, studies suggest that the local reserves of natural gas may deplete in 4 years. Advanced technologies such as fuel cells, hybrids and electric vehicles are options to look into. 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, FreightShip FreightAir FreightRail Trailar Truck PassShip PassAir PassRail 2W/3W Bus SUV LV Car Figure 16. Total CO2 - Alternative In the alternative scenario, the existence of a public transport system has been considered. Plans have been proposed to build MRT systems around the country. This may motivate people to use public transport instead of cars. Energy efficient bus technologies and renewable fuels are seen to be adapted into the current buses, especially in a low crude oil supply scenario. The alternative scenario resulted in a reduction of 83% in total CO2 emissions from transport in vs the (244 thousand tons CO2).

5 Improve Shift passenger rail bus Avoid ACTION PLAN Pricing Regimes ICT Teleactivities Travel Plans Improved Travel Awareness Urban and Landuse planning Fuel price (1%) Bus/BRT usage promotion (Passenger) Bus/BRT infra development (Passenger) from Car,LV,SUV to Bus 3% shift by Rail/LRT usage promotion (Passenger) Rail/LRT infra development (Passenger) from Car/LV/SUV to LRT 25% shift by from Car/LV/SUV to LRT 5% shift by from 2W/3W to LRT 5% shift by CNGV mass supply CNGV Promotion (mainly via economic way) Bus(CNG) 5% by Truck(CNG) 25% by Hybrid mass supply Hybrid Promotion (mainly via economic way) Truck(HV-Diesel) 7% shift by FCV mass supply FCV Promotion (mainly via economic way) Truck(FCV) 3% shift by Biofuel Promotion (15% of the mix by ) Rail electrification 15% by Ecological Driving Air fuel efficiency improvement Passenger Transport Characteristic Policies Vehicle tax and quotas, as well as park-and-ride schemes can be put in place to encourage the shift to various modes of transport other than private cars. Public bus transit system should be improved, Bike lanes and walkways, and other infrastructure for cyclists and pedestrians, should be constructed to encourage a shift to non-motorized transportation. Smart urban and land use planning should be implemented to reduce transport activity. Land use and transport integration should be considered accordingly. Future Image As awareness of depleting resources becomes apparent, so shall the initiatives to create fuel savings. Brunei will move away from car use to public transport towards, with a network designed to serve the upper class. Freight Transport Cross-border freight agreements with Malaysia and Indonesia should be in place. Brunei Muara Port should be improved, as well as water transport for freight in general. Advanced vehicle technologies will penetrate the freight fleets. Brunei will be one of the pioneer users of energy-efficient air transport, reducing emissions by 5% through innovations in aviation technology.

6 Challenges Co-Benefits Conclusion Brunei is a top exporter of fuel and natural gas. However, evidence shows that the country s reserves will be depleted in 3 years. The country will have to diversify its energy portfolio to ensure that it will be ready to face the challenges posed by its depleting natural resources. Lack of public transport will continue motivating car use. If this will remain in the future, Brunei may experience worse traffic congestion, thus further exacerbating future transport emissions. Owning a car is generally easy in Brunei due to low car loan interest rates and subsidized car purchase. This explains the high number of cars in the country and at the moment, car ownership is about two cars for every household. Unchecked, the number of carsvolume would likely double in number from 15, in 25 to 282, in. Car ownership is generally considered as a status symbol, similar to most countries in Asia, hence convincing the population of Brunei to shift to public transport appears to be a challenge. Inadequate public transport system in Brunei is believed to be affecting the tourism sector in Brunei. While Brunei currently enjoys expansive road networks, the increase in car use may cause worse traffic congestion towards. Public transport can potentially prevent congestion by motivating the people to lessen their dependency on cars, thus reducing the number of vehicles that are on the road. With less fuel available, Brunei will be able to conserve its resources through more energy efficient vehicle technology. The costs may be high in the short term, but the amount potentially saved will be more significant. It will be a challenge for Brunei to achieve the.33 tco2 per capita target in but is possible. This simulation proposes a mitigation potential from 2.66 tco2 to.45 tco2 per capita. Cleaner technologies for transport should be considered, as Brunei, as compared to the other Southeast Asian nations, is in a better economic position to do so. Similar to Singapore, Brunei has the advantage of being compact. Densification can be the future alternative to reduce travel demand. Urban and land use planning that would include city designs that manage car use would prove beneficial. Disincentives on car ownership such as increased taxation and fuel prices may also be considered. Ultimately, a good public transport option would be the most important factor in reducing car use in Brunei. Brunei will have to improve its public transport system and cease supporting high levels of car use. References Asian Development Bank Institute ASEAN 23, Towards a Borderless Economic Community. APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook: 5th Edition. (February 213, February). Brunei Economic Development Board. (n.d.). Brunei: Economic Overview. Retrieved January 214, from Brunei Economic Development Board: Brunei's National Vision: Wawasan. (n.d.). Retrieved from Brunei Economic Development Board: Oxford Business Group. (213). Retrieved January 214, from The Report: Brunei Darussalam 213: Q6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=brunei%2thereport%2transport&f=false United Nations World Population Prospects: The 212 Revision. United Nations World Urbanization Prospects: The 211 Revision. World Bank World Development Indicators.

7 This publication/paper was prepared as a part of an international joint study A Study of Long-Term Transport Action Plan for ASEAN" by the Institution for Transport Studies (ITPS) working with Clean Air Asia (CAA), supported by the Nippon Foundation. Institution for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS) , Toranomon, Minato-ku, TOKYO (Japan) TEL: FAX: