Managing the Global Carbon Budget: the role(s) of Bioenergy in Sustainable Development

Transcription

1 Managing the Global Carbon Budget: the role(s) of Bioenergy in Sustainable Development (land as the key mediator of mitigation and adaptation) Jeremy Woods 6 th Oxford Energy Day Energy in Growing Economies 2 nd October 2017

2 A tool to help understand and manage multiple forms of uncertainty Sharply-Divergent Assessments of Bioenergy Rather than clustering about a mean, estimates for the potential energy contribution of biomass exhibit a bimodal distribution with most such estimates envisioning a very small or very large energy supply role for this resource 1 Frequency of estimates Small potential, infeasible, undesirable Large potential, feasible, desirable 1 Lynd et al. in Sovacol and Brown (eds.) Energy and American Society. Thirteen Energy Myths. Springer See also: Strapasson et al On the Global Limits of Bioenergy and Land Use for Climate Change Mitigation. GCB Bioenergy. DOI: /gcbb

3 % Dietary protein Is Land a constrained resource? Land needed to produce 70% more food (FAO) EJ modern bioenergy (biofuel, heat, electricity) (courtesy of Lee Lynd, 2015) Pasture (3.4 billion ha) 1.5 billion ha marginal & very marginal A fraction could conceivably grow some energy crops (e.g. agave) Additional for food, 2050: 70 Mha 140 EJ (20 to 25% primary energy): 200 Mha 1.4 billion ha prime & good Additional for increased protected land + forest plantations: 180 Mha Suitability for some energy crops (e.g. grass) likely > food crops Agricultural Land (Ha) Cropland (1.5 billion ha) Added land needed for very large bioenergy contribution, 2050: 19% prime & good land not now planted in row crops after deducting for land expected to be needed for food % Harvested Crops

4 Reconciling bioenergy within the Sustainable Development Agenda Bioenergy is an inherently inter- multi- and transdisciplinary subject The analytical and assessment tools (and understanding) needed, regarding the current and future impacts are only just beginning to emerge Do we have the time to wait for a good-to-perfect understanding before beginning implementation? Table 1. Role of the SDGs for energy supply/use, and land. Fritsche et al. Sustainable energy options and implications for land use. UNCCD & IRENA (2017) SDG Key wording Driver Safeguard Land relevance End poverty in all its forms everywhere (ü) (ü) moderate End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture ü ü high Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages (ü) (ü) low Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Reduce inequality within and among countries Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable moderate (ü) (ü) low ü (ü) high (ü) (ü) moderate (ü) moderate ü (ü) high Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns ü (ü) high Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts ü ü high Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development (ü) (ü) low ü ü high (ü) low (ü) (ü) moderate

5 Sustainable Intensification? What is the role of (energy) innovation in agriculture? Photos taken during Biogasdoneright visit, Italy, February 2017 (J. Woods, 2017) 1. Digestate injection (sub-soil), 2. cattle feeding (dairy), 3. cattle sheds with PV roofing, 4. rye grass growth on digestate fertilised soils (Apr 2017)

6 Anaerobic Digestion providing biogas as a despatchable source of power x 1MWe biogas power plants (Po Valley, Italy, 2017), 2. Biogas plant with maize silage (stored for 1 year; Italy, 2017), 3. Gorge Valley AD plant, Naivasha, Kenya (2017)

7 Slide courtesy of Bruce Dale (Michigan State Uni) and Biogasdoneright (2017) and Consorzio Italiano Biogas (CIB)

8 Renewables are driving disruptive change in utility business models in Europe Currently, the role of bioenergy in balancing is increasing as time interval of balancing increases, being most significant in seasonal balancing especially in connection with heat grids. The role in the future is seen to develop more towards short term balancing as the balancing needs also increase due to the increasing share of variable power generation. (IEA Bioenergy. 2017)

9 Managing Global Land Use is there /will there be, enough biomass? Strapasson A, Woods J, Chum H, Kalas N, Shah N, Rosillo-Calle F, On the global limits of bioenergy and land use for climate change mitigation, GCB Bioenergy, ISSN:

10 Thank You Dr Lorenzo Di Lucia (ILAMS) Dr Onesmus Mwabonje (BioSuccInnovate) Dr Alexandre Strapasson (Global Calc + FT) Nicole Kalas (Global Calc + FT) Yuanzhi Ni (BioSuccInnovate) Mireille Rack (Social LCA- EuroChar) Steven Peterson (Food & Energy Security) Dr Obinna Anejionu (Spatial: UK Space Agency)