Air Pollution - Climate Change (Atmospheric Chemistry - Climate) Interactions

Transcription

1 Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 1 Air Pollution - Climate Change (Atmospheric Chemistry - Climate) Interactions Frank Raes, Silvia Kloster, John Van Aardenne Frank Dentener, Rita Van Dingenen, Elina Marmer, Elisabetta Vignati, Lazlo Szabo, Peter Russ Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra (IT) and Sevilla (ES) Johan Feichter, Erich Roeckner, Irene Fischer-Bruns Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (DE) Ulrike Lohmann Rob Swart ETH, Zurich (CH) Wageningen University, Wageningen (NL) Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (AU)

2 the one slide Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 2 GCM (ECHAM) and CTM (TM5) based scenario modelling of the effects of future Air Pollution (AP) and Climate Change (CC) policies Radiative Forcing 2030 min (1) BAU CC policies only AP policies only AP+CC policies Temperature 2030 min (2) result equilibrium run divided by two AP AP policies only only whatever we do, climate might not benefit until after 2030 (and possibly 2050). This goes in addition to the climate change that is already in the pipe-line T 2030 T 2000 = ~ 1.1 C (2.18 o C) B2, IIASA MFR WG1 must check the robustness of such results by making a critical review of coupled Climate Air Pollution models New IPCC scenarios must pay attention to future AP emission control policies WG1 and WG3 to interact better (1) Van Aardenne et al.(2009) in preparation (2) Kloster et al. ACP (2008,) Kloster et al. Clim Dyn (2009 in review)

3 the past Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 3 Air Pollutants IPCC 4AR ( 2007)

4 the future Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 4 control technologies (GAINS JRC) global scenarios of energy market (POLES JRC) emissions of CO2 & air pollutants, present & future (EDGAR JRC) air pollution & climate (TM5 CTM ) ( ECHAM5 GCM) impacts & economic costs (JRC in house)

5 CTM calculations Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 5 Caluclations with TM5 Chemical Transport Model fixed 2000 meteorology (no AP Climate feed backs) atmospheric chemistry aerosol species do not interact We calculate - Fields of air pollutants :ozone particulate matter (sulfate, BC, OC, SS, dust ) - Effects on human health, natural ecosystems and agriculture - Effects of TOA radiative forcing (through off-line calculation) - for year for years 2030 and 2050 under various policy scenarios - Business as usual for APs and GHGs (BAU) - Only climate policies (CC only) - Only air pollution reduction policies (AP only) - Climate and air pollution policies (CC + AP)

6 questions Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 6 - What are the effects of air pollution control policies on climate? - What are the effects of climate change mitigation policies on the level of air pollutants - Are there co-benifits of one policy for the other?

7 CO2 emission scenario: 2000 > 2050 Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 7 BAU (implement current legislation) CC only (25% CO2 reduction by 2050, globally) AP only (~EU standards globally) CC+AP

8 SO2 emission scenario: 2000 > 2050 Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 8 BAU (implement current legislation) CC only (25% CO2 reduction by 2050, globally) AP only (~EU standards globally) CC+AP

9 changes in air pollutant fields between 2000 and 2030 Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 9 BAU CC only AP only PM10 (surface) Ozone (surface)

10 changes in radiative forcing between 2000 and 2030 Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 10 BAU CC only AP only TOA radiative forcing between 2000 and 2030 without policies (W/m2) effect of CC-only policy by 2030 effect of AP-only policy by 2030

11 changes in climate impacts between 2000 and 2030 Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 11

12 GCM calculations Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 12 Caluclations with ECHAM5 Gen.Circulation Model atmospheric chemistry aerosol species do interact We calculate - Fields of air pollutants :ozone particulate matter (sulfate, BC, OC, SS, dust) - Effects of radiative forcing, - Effects on temperature and precipitation - for year 2000 (equilibrium calculation) - for year 2030 (equilibrium calculation) - Only GHG increase according to B2 (GHG ) - Only air pollution reduction polcies (AE ) (MFR everywhere) - GHG increase + aerosol decrease (GHG + AE )

13 questions Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 13 - What are effects of GHGs and aerosols on surface temperature and precipitation? - Are GHG and aerosol effects additive? - What is the climate sensitivity to changing GHGs and changing aerosols λ = ΔT/ RF ( o C/W/m 2 ) - What is the hydrological sensitivity to changing GHGs and aerosols h= Δprecip/ ΔT (%/ o C)

14 changes in surface temperature between 2000 and 2030 Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 14 GHG ΔT = 1.20 C λ= 0.8 o C/W/m 2 λ= 1.0 o C/W/m 2 AE ΔT = 0.96 C GHG +AE ΔT = 2.18 C λ= 0.9 o C/W/m 2 GHGs: Aerosols: SRES B2 scenario IIASA MFR scenario Kloster et al. Climate Dynamics (submitted) 2009

15 changes in precipitation between 2000 and 2030 Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 15 GHG mm/day mm/day AE Δprecip = +2% h = 1.96 %/ o C h = 2.81 %/ o C Δprecip = +3% GHG +AE mm/day Δprecip = +5% h = 2.36 %/ o C GHGs: Aerosols: SRES B2 scenario IIASA MFR scenario Kloster et al. Climate Dynamics (submitted) 2009

16 conclusions Bridging the Gap, 14 May 2008, Portoroz, Slovenia 16 Climate change policies have co-benefits for air pollution in all world regions Tackling air pollution in the short term (next two decades) will still require dedicated air pollution policies (end-of-pipe control technology) in all world regions AP policies are expected to lead to a faster global and regional warming, mainly because of the reduction of aerosols. CC policies that aim at climate stabilization in the long term (> 50 years), will also lead to a faster warming in the short term. The problem of a faster warming in the short term might be alleviated by focusing also on reductions of shortlived warming agents: black carbon aerosols, CH4 and tropospheric ozone