Tucson Vulnerability Assessment. Leslie Ethen City of Tucson Office of Conservation and Sustainable Development

Transcription

1 Tucson Vulnerability Assessment Leslie Ethen City of Tucson Office of Conservation and Sustainable Development

2 Climate Vulnerability Vulnerability = Exposure, Sensi6vity, Adap6ve Capacity Exposure = Science Sensi6vity = We live in a desert Adap6ve Capacity = We have a poor community

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5 Tucson Exposure Data degree increase by end of Century Increase more in June- Nov Increase more at night than day More triple- digit days Longer consecu6ve triple- digit days UHI expected to add another 6-7 degrees!!! Precipita6on Drier, slightly Fewer events, more intense, less effec6ve precipita6on Humidity?

6 Tucson Precip - % Difference A2 High B1 Low Winter

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8 Impacts and Sectors (and Elements) Impacts Extreme heat Extreme cold Drought Wind Monsoon Flooding Wildfires Sectors Households Parks/Open Space Natural Ecosystems Infrastructure Transporta6on Businesses Food Security* Elements Physical elements Inputs, resources Outputs Processes

9 Extreme Heat Criteria Decreases Quality of Life Critical interconnectivity to Assessing Impacts Reduces Economic Increases GHG Climate other issues Vulnerability Sustainability Ranking Emissions Vulnerability Yes - Extreme = (Potential heat Yes - climate For the exposure) Yes - x (Sensitivity) Potentially -- = Extreme Heat = Flooding Decreases Human Health and Safety Decreases or Cost of Threatens Equity Impacts Potentially-- Yes - Increasing Potentially Though short will affect multiple utilities extreme Increased Indirect or burden on low large - duration events, Potential infrastructure heat will increase demand for air Sensitivity secondary impacts income Requirement to extreme heat can segments costs of conditioning of infrastructure populations from upgrade negatively impact Climsimultaneously ate and maintenance and and cooling stress from increased costs of infrastructure urban infrastructure exacerbate impacts. Slight could cause from Moderate extreme heat High and/ electricity and Severe systems to be in a variety of ways. Exposure Increased demand structural damage. conventional or failure of primary water and those Impact will vary for electricity for Particularly for energy infrastructure particularly based on sector Very cooling High with increase vulnerable low sources create system could affect dependent on and populations demand for water income segments increased human health and infrastructure groups. Direct stressing both of the populations emissions. safety. could further effects include High systems. extreme heat will threaten equity increased cooling Increase demand across Tucson costs, additional and cost for Medium repair costs, and utilities, electricity, potential loss of water etc. service. Low prepare for and capable of handling increased heat stress and demand may be substantial. Increased maintenance costs along with potential structural damage will increase costs to utilities and in turn increase costs to consumers. Yes = 3 points Potential = 2 points Limited = 1 points No = 0 points 19

10 Prioritization Climate Vulnerability Ranking Vulnerability = (Potential climate exposure) x (Sensitivity) Potential Clim ate Exposure Very High High Medium Low Sensitivity Slight Moderate High Severe = Extreme Heat = Flooding

11 Prioritization extreme heat drought flooding monsoon wildfire

12 Messaging: Hotter, Drier, So What? Temp and precip changes are drivers But temporal variability hidden by annual averages Trends are important (climate change), but problem is increasingly climate extremes Also we need to look at actual impacts (many of which are interrelated) Climate change can exacerbate exis3ng risks, problems Long- term trends + compounding + new extremes = significant impacts

13 Questions? Leslie Ethen