Integrated Resource Planning: CAPEX & Wind Generation Modeling

Transcription

1 Integrated Resource Planning: CAPEX & Wind Generation Modeling PSE 2017 IRP 22 May SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

2 DNV GL Renewables Advisory Long history of renewable energy advisory since 1980s Support full life-cycle of renewable energy development & operation Stakeholders: Governments/NGOs/Utilities IRP Support: Lenders/Investors/Tax Equity Wind & Solar Capital Expenditures Owners/Operators Wind Generation Modeling Project Developers Manufacturers 2

3 Washington Wind Energy 3

4 Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) Estimates Where do DNV GL estimates come from? DNV GL reviews construction contracts and financial models as part of financial due diligence services. DNV GL is the leading provider of this service to the renewables industry. We ve been tracking renewables CAPEX costs for 15+ years ~400 North American renewable projects currently in database Key points: Filter for Pacific Northwest and clear outliers Consider modern designs Incorporate decreasing equipment cost trends 4

5 CAPEX Results Capital Costs in Washington State Low ($/kw) Average ($/kw) High ($/kw) 100 MW Onshore Wind Power Project 1 1,140 1,490 2, MW Onshore Solar Power Project 2 1,350 1,570 1, MW Offshore Wind Power Project 3 5,500 8,300 13, Does not include owner s engineering, capital spares, contingency, financing or major grid upgrade costs. Note that $/kw are rounded. 2. Does not include owner s engineering, capital spares, contingency, financing, substation, O&M building, interconnection or major grid upgrade costs. 3. Assumed to be a demonstration project located ~20 km offshore. Does not include owner s engineering, capital spares, contingency, financing or major grid upgrade costs. If a 100 MW wind farm were to be built, the CAPEX estimate would be on the lower side of the range provided. 5

6 CAPEX Results - Offshore Much higher costs compared to onshore wind: Floating or deep water fixed-bottom substructure/foundations are very expensive Would be first of its kind learning on the job is expensive Very high turbine and balance of plant installation costs (vessels) Much larger turbine size (6 8 MW assumed) Offshore estimates have a much higher uncertainty as compared to onshore wind and solar. 6

7 Wind Generation Modeling 7

8 Wind Generation Modeling For each hypothetical wind farm: 1,000 hourly time series of generation from 2000 to 2016 Probabilistical perturbation of wind resource and downtime 8

9 Wind Generation Modeling Input Data Wind resource based on mesoscale (weather) models and regional wind data Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model: Developed and maintained by consortium of more than 150 international agencies, laboratories, and universities DNV GL has analyzed projects in all existing wind farm areas in the PNW Source: Washington State Univ. 9

10 Wind Generation Models Create hypothetical wind farm Wind flow modeling using WAsP (common linear wind flow model) Gross energy and Wake Loss modeling using WindFarmer software Combine hourly resource & wind farm power curve generation time series Apply additional losses: Estimate annual and hourly Availability based on observed availability trends Electrical Turbine performance 10

11 Wind Generation Models Repeat x 1,000: wind speed and availability are perturbed based on relevant uncertainties & variabilities Annual wind speed and availability variability Measurement and modeling uncertainties Compare modeled seasonal and hourly profiles to actual wind farm production. Actual wind production has not been used directly. 11

12 Wind Generation Results V m/s 34-35% NCF SWT m/s 30-31% NCF GE m/s 44-45% NCF V m/s 29-30% NCF 12

13 Thank you. Questions? Melissa Elkinton x SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER