Beyond dangerous climate change:

Transcription

1 Beyond dangerous climate change: does Paris lock out 2 C? web: kevinanderson.info Kevin Anderson University of Manchester March 2016

2 Richard Feynman on climate change? For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. Richard P. Feynman. Shuttle Presidential Commission 1986

3 Carbon dioxide emissions per year from fossil fuels & cement (GtC/yr) Backdrop to Paris (& latest IPCC reports) 30 The mitigation message has changed little in the last twenty five years Annual emissions ~60% higher than at time of the first report in Atmospheric 10 CO 2 levels higher than during past 800 thousand years

4 Paris Agreement 32 page document. Dec. 2015

5 Paris Agreement An important diplomatic triumph

6 Paris Agreement An important diplomatic triumph hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C to undertake rapid reductions in accordance with best science on the basis of equity, and efforts to eradicate poverty.

7 Issues with the Paris Agreement? no reference to fossil fuels or decarbonisation aviation and shipping exempt from any action voluntary pledges (INDCs) equate to ~3.5 C (focus on 2.7 C is misleading) no review of INDCs until ~2020; i.e. 200 billion tonnes of CO 2 from now fundamental reliance on highly speculative negative emission technologies Derisory $100bill pa. to assist poorer nations adapt & mitigate Cf fossil fuel direct & indirect subsidy ~$5.3trill.( i.e. 53x $100b) a 30 th of UK GDP

8 My response published in Nature Dec. 2015

9 Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel & cement (GtCO2yr-1) Before Paris 4 C to 6 C GCP new data YEAR

10 Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel & cement (GtCO2yr-1) Pledges (INDCs) ~3.5 C GCP new data YEAR

11 Lock-in 30 to 100+ yrs Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel & cement (GtCO2yr-1) Pledges (INDCs) ~3.5 C as we build hi-carbon GCP new data power stations Infrastructures buildings aircraft & ships YEAR

12 Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel & cement (GtCO2yr-1) Pledges (INDCs) ~3.5 C GCP new data C YEAR

13 Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel & cement (GtCO2yr-1) Pledges (INDCs) ~3.5 C GCP new data Deep Cuts in Energy Demand 2 C YEAR

14 Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel & cement (GtCO2yr-1) well below 2 C & pursue 1.5 C on the basis of equity GCP new data YEAR

15 Returning to IPCC s Carbon budgets 5 to 8 years of current global emissions will consume all the remaining energy-carbon budget for 1.5 C so it is now too late for 1.5 C

16 and for 2 C? 66% chance of 2 C is lost 50% chance demands a war-like footing on mitigation - now 33% chance demands mitigation far beyond anything discussed in Paris

17 What s this mean for poorer & richer nations? Method [1] We have a global CO 2 budget for 33% chance of <2 C (from the IPCC) [2] Estimate mitigation by poorer/industrialising nations (i.e. their CO 2 budget) subtract [2] from [1] = CO 2 budget left for industrial nations

18 Assuming poorer/industrialising nations: 1. Collectively peak their emissions by Then rapidly increase mitigation to ~10% p.a. by Fully decarbonise their energy systems by 2050

19 then, for 2 C, wealthy nations (inc. Ireland) require: At least 10% reduction in emissions year on year from now, equivalent to: 50% reduction by ~2020 (c.f. 1990) 75% ~ % ~2030 Fully decarbonise ALL energy by 2035 c.f. EU s submission to Paris 40% by 2030

20 How can this be reconciled with official accounts?... mitigation costs would be so low that global economic growth would not be strongly affected WGIII Co Chair Nov. 2014

21 How can this be reconciled with official accounts? To keep to 2 C the UK [must] cut emissions by at least 80% the good news is that reductions of that size are possible without sacrificing the benefits of economic growth and rising prosperity. UK Committee on Climate Change

22 two rabbits from the hat: 1. Negative emissions technologies (BECCS): Grow trees/plants they absorb CO2 through photosynthesis burn trees in powerstations capture the CO2 from the chimney ~liquefy the CO2 & pump it underground store for many 1000s of years

23 two rabbits from the hat: 1. Negative emissions technologies (BECCS): Never worked at scale huge technical & economic unknowns major efficiency penalty limited biomass availability (fuel or food?) and fingers crossed on feedbacks

24 two rabbits from the hat: 1. Negative emissions technologies (BECCS): e.g. - planting 1 to 3x the area of India, - year after year; decade after decade - store 100s of billions of tonnes of CO2 - securely underground for 1000s of years

25 two rabbits from the hat: 1. Negative emissions technologies (BECCS): e.g. - planting 1 to 3x the area of India, - year after year; decade after decade - store 100s of billions of tonnes of CO2 - securely underground for 1000s of years 2. Peak global emissions in the past We don t have a time machine

26 Richard Feynman on climate change? For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. Richard P. Feynman. Shuttle Presidential Commission 1986

27 Nature Geoscience (doi: /ngeo2559) Mon. 12 th Oct 2015

28 IPCC Scenario database: 400 scenarios for 50% or better chance of 2 C, of these: - 86% include large scale negative emissions - the remaining 14% peak in ~ many use negative emissions & adopt a ~2010 peak

29 So Paris, some Academics & Politicians rather than focus on urgent & deep mitigation now with challenging political & economic repercussions rely on non-existent negative emission technologies to suck CO 2 out of the air after 2050 in huge quantities

30 Returning to 2 C is it still a viable goal?

31 Hypothesis: yes just Equity/behaviour - a small group to make radical & early reductions Technology - demand side can deliver early & large reductions Growth - there are alternative measures of a good life

32 EQUITY 50% of global CO 2 comes from 10% of the population Top 1% of US emitters (~3.4 million people) have CO 2 footprints 2500x higher than bottom 1% globally (~70 million)

33 who are the high-emitters? Climate scientists Civil servants, NGOs, etc.? Anyone who annually takes a long-haul flight or two 2 C mitigation is principally a short-term challenge; i.e. really now to so is mostly about the few not the many it is a consumption and not a population issue!

34 TECHNOLOGY Efficient petrol/diesel cars A++ refrigerators

35 Private road transport (Cars) EU & US ~12-15% of emissions ~270 petrol/diesel models <100gCO2/km at no price premium 2/3 of car travel is by vehicles 8yrs old or younger

36 Max CO 2 Standard & existing petrol/diesel cars - With no additional capital cost - Reduced operating cost - Identical infrastructure - Same employment & companies 50% to 70% reduction in ~10yrs

37 Refrigeration A++ refrigerator uses 80% less energy than an A rated Phased replacement of all A-rated (& below) with A++ CO 2 saving of ~50%+ in 10 years

38 and at an electricity system level A rated Refrig n Electricity consumption Transmission Powerstation Fuel production, extraction & transport

39 GROWTH: but what really matters? health & life expectancy literacy rates & security fairness & fun time with family & friend s Growth converts the heterogeneous into the homogeneous (,, $) In itself it has no meaningful value

40 GROWTH: a misguided proxy? the economist s economy has stalled! Faced with systemic issues - neoclassical ( free market) economics is in disarray - incremental approaches to climate change have not delivered We have an unprecedented opportunity to think differently

41 A Radical Plan for 2 C two phases 1. Deep reductions in energy demand from now to ~2030 by the high emitters 2. Massive build programme of zero carbon energy supply with 100% penetration by 2050

42 Thoughts on Ireland & 2 C Energy DEMAND Retrofit 1.2 million homes 48b over 15yrs or 3b/yr (~1.3% GDP) excellent for training & employment (~9% unemployment) eliminate fuel poverty ( k households) Max CO2 standard for all new cars/electrification Stringent efficiency standards on electrical equipment start with Govt procurement 40% to 70% reduction in energy demand in 15 years

43 Thoughts on Ireland & 2 C Energy SUPPLY Major electrification programme (htg, transport, etc) Role out smart grid/intelligent metering/community energy Early phase out of 3 peat stations Wealthy nation with huge renewable potential Solar panels on all SW roofs (~1/3 current elec demand?) Indigenous biomass/biogas for intermittency/base load Hybrid ferries consider wind-assist and/or biofuel

44 Thoughts on Ireland& 2 C Energy POLICY Progressive metering tariffs Stringent energy efficiency & emission standards Moratorium on all hydrocarbon developments Moratorium on airport expansion Personal carbon allowance?

45 and a message of hope to finish at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different. Robert Unger

46 Thank you Kevin Anderson University of Manchester March 2016