8.1-1 AIR QUALITY MODELLING PROGRAM

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1 8.1-1 REPORT Meeting Date: Regional Council For Information DATE: May 29, 2017 REPORT TITLE: FROM: AIR QUALITY MODELLING PROGRAM Nancy Polsinelli, Commissioner of Health Services Lawrence Loh, MD MPH CCFP FRCPC FACPM Acting Medical Officer of Health OBJECTIVE To provide an update on the Peel Air Quality Modelling program. REPORT HIGHLIGHTS Peel Public Health continues to respond to long-standing community concerns around air quality by working to monitor and mitigate the impacts of poor air quality on population health. Regional Council approved an air quality modelling program in 2011 for a 5 year period ( ). Peel Public Health intends to continue the program for an additional five year period (2018 to 2022). Air quality modelling provides data at local, regional, and long-range scales. This data provides an important health and sustainability lens to key growth decisions, and will continue to inform several Term of Council priorities (i.e., climate change, goods movement, and the built environment). To date, results from air quality models indicate that Mississauga and Brampton have general air quality comparable to other large urban centers, while Caledon experiences relatively better air quality. Transportation has been identified as a large contributor to poor air quality in the Region. Modelling scenarios based on growth, with a focus on transportation, form part of the work plan for the 2018 to 2022 timeframe. Future modelling scenarios, including those related to climate change, natural heritage, and energy, have been proposed by the Air Quality Modelling Steering Committee and are planned for execution in the 2018 to 2022 timeframe. Modelling these scenarios will allow staff to understand how these changes will affect air quality and provide insight into potential health implications and possible interventions to help inform key decisions around planning, growth and transportation. DISCUSSION 1. Background While outdoor air quality in Ontario has generally improved over the past decade, occasional instances of poor air quality continue to impact the health of Ontarians. A 2014 Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change (MOECC) report on air quality in Ontario found

2 8.1-2 province-wide improvements in levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO), which typically arise from vehicles and industry. However, the report also noted that patterns in the levels of ozone and fine particulate matter have remained largely unchanged. Peel data in the report identified that levels of fine particulate matter measured at the Mississauga and Brampton monitoring sites continue to occasionally exceed the provincial Ambient Air Quality Criteria (AAQC) 1. These two MOECC monitors are located at the University of Toronto campus in Mississauga (UTM) and at the Ontario Correctional Institute in Brampton. The latter monitor was formerly located at Peel Manor but was moved due to pending construction at that site. The MOECC monitors air quality in Caledon via a monitoring site in Newmarket. Peel s population is widely exposed to air pollutants, particularly from traffic-related sources. Research has shown that living near major roads increases the risk of developing or worsening a range of health impacts including childhood asthma, respiratory symptoms, impaired lung function, cardiovascular morbidity, pre-term birth, childhood leukemia and premature mortality. In particular, research has shown that metres from a highway or major road is the zone most highly affected by traffic emissions. In 2014, the Medical Officers of Health in the Greater Toronto Area (including Peel) and Hamilton released Improving Health by Design in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA report), which noted that fifty percent of Peel residents live within 300 metres of a high-volume traffic road/highway ( 25,000 vehicles per day). This report also noted that certain groups are more highly affected by pollution, including people with underlying health conditions, young children, the elderly and pregnant women. The Region of Peel Air Quality Modelling Program was approved by Council in The model developed by this program provides important information which supplements data collected from MOECC air quality monitors and supports the prediction of local, regional and long-range scale air quality trends. The models allow staff to: Better understand and address sources of poor air quality, Provide input into the assessment of land use planning and transportation decisions, to manage growth in a healthy and sustainable manner, and Inform planning, education and social marketing campaigns. 2. Findings a) Air Quality Monitoring and Modelling The modelling data derived from the Region of Peel Air Quality Modelling Program is critical to understanding the potential air quality implications of various planning decisions and identifying key sources of air quality emissions. While the MOECC 1 An AAQC is a desirable concentration of a contaminant in air, based on protection against adverse effects on health or the environment. They are set by the MOECC. The term ambient is used to reflect general air quality independent of location or source of a contaminant

3 8.1-3 maintains a network of 39 ambient air monitoring stations across the province that collect real-time air pollution data, including two monitors in Peel, these data lack sufficient detail to draw community-level conclusions, and do not permit future forecasting around development trends, particularly the impact of growth. The Peel air quality models are highly complex, predictive representations of air quality. As described in the June 9, 2011 report to Council, modelling is conducted at a variety of scales to provide information on emissions coming from distant sources as well as emissions generated locally. The models also permit analysis around the chemical interactions between pollutants in the atmosphere. The first three years of the project ( ) involved building and validating data inputs into the model using data from the Environment Canada and US Environmental Protection Agency. In years two and three, monitoring data was used to calibrate and check the accuracy of the model. Data used for calibration included MOECC data as well as data collected from a passive monitor installed at the paramedic station at 3611 Charleston Side Road. This passive monitor was installed specifically to calibrate the model for rural settings in the Region. The fourth and fifth years saw the tool used to model various growth and transportation scenarios, with analyses of the accuracy of the model results. The Region of Peel s modelling program is currently operated by a contracted consortium of RWDI Consulting Engineers and Scientists Inc., XCG Consulting, and the Institute for the Environment at the University of North Carolina. Peel Public Health plans to undertake a competitive procurement process for the operation of the program from Leadership and guidance is provided by the Air Quality Modelling Steering Committee, which consists of regular representation from the Region of Peel (Health, Planning and Public Works), Peel s area municipalities, and the MOECC, and ad hoc involvement from Environment Canada and the Greater Toronto Airport Authority. b) Modelling Results Results from the air quality model were reported to Council in 2015 ( Air Quality Modelling and Monitoring, June 11, 2015). Overall, air quality in Peel is driven by a number of different factors, notably: o Proximity to highly industrialized and urban centres in the United States mid-west and Ohio River Valley, and industrialized and urban centres of southwestern Ontario, o Local sources of air pollution including: transportation, heating and cooling of buildings, agriculture, industry, o Emissions from natural sources including wetlands, plants and trees, and o Local geography and meteorology. Based on modelled scenarios, Mississauga and Brampton experience conditions similar to their large urban neighbours (e.g., Hamilton, Burlington, Oakville, and Toronto). These urban areas all have similar sources of air emissions, including major highways and industry. The geography of the area also plays a role, as prevailing westerly winds - 3 -

4 8.1-4 and local effects associated with Lake Ontario transport extra-jurisdictional air pollutants along the north shore of the lake in a roughly north-easterly direction, especially during summer smog events. An air quality study conducted by the Greater Toronto Area Airport demonstrated that within a 7.5 km radius of the airport, the majority of the emissions were associated with the heavy volume of traffic on the major area highways. Caledon experiences marginally better air quality than the southern part of the region. Air quality in Caledon is similar to other mixed rural and urban areas in southwestern Ontario. Smaller urban centres in Caledon benefit from rural surroundings and smaller numbers of large upwind transportation and industrial emission sources. Elevated levels of air pollution in these areas tend to be the result of local activities, including industry and agriculture. Following the 2015 report to Council that described these initial findings, a scenario was modelled with growth projections provided by Integrated Planning. This project aimed to test whether the model would accurately identify air quality changes related to growth. The key assumption in the scenario was a 60 percent population increase between a base year (2010) and projected year (2041) with different growth intensification targets. The results of the analysis suggest that the model performs well in determining key pollutants and emissions changes and is well-suited to inform high-level planning decisions. The model provides far more comprehensive and valuable data than that available through the two ambient air monitoring stations in the Region. c) Future Uses: Air Quality Modelling Data and Planning The population of the Region of Peel is expected to grow significantly over the next 25 years. As a consequence, emissions from transportation, home heating and cooling, and the industrial, commercial and retail sectors will likely increase, and emissions from other sectors such as agricultural and biogenic sources will likely decrease. Greenfield development that is dependent on single occupant vehicles will have a different emissions profile than denser, public transit-oriented development. Data generated from the air quality modelling is being used to test different growth and transportation scenarios such as new highways, increased public transit and active transportation. There are many sources of emissions and modelling allows Regional staff to understand what the main drivers are, both now and into the future. Further growth scenarios, including those related to climate change, natural heritage, and energy, have been proposed by the Steering Committee and are planned for execution in the timeframe. Modelling these scenarios will allow staff to understand how these changes will affect air quality, and provide insight into potential health implications and possible interventions to help inform key decisions around planning and growth. As a first step, described in a February 11, 2016 report to Council entitled Mitigation of Traffic-Related Air Pollution, Peel Public Health has conducted a review of the literature on effective interventions aimed at mitigating transport-related air pollution. Discussions are underway between Public Works, Planning, and Health on modelling a transportation growth scenario with more refined growth intensity targets

5 8.1-5 Discussions are on-going to ensure data sharing and consensus on model assumptions and inputs. While many future uses can be contemplated, first in mind is the opportunity to use modelling data to inform the following Term of Council Priorities: Adapt to and Mitigate the Effects of Climate Change; Improve Goods Movement, Plan and Manage Growth; and Promote Healthy and Age-Friendly Built Environments. Modelling data will also be shared with the surrounding local municipalities, provincial, and federal governments to foster concerted action and coordinated responses to poor air quality. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS The cost of the Air Quality Modelling Program was approximately $121,000 per year (plus applicable taxes) between 2012 and This amount has been in the annual Public Health base budget since the inception of the program. The annual costs have included development and testing of the model, air monitoring in Caledon to validate the model, and running growth scenarios. The Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change has provided quality assurance/control services as an in-kind contribution and this is expected to continue over the approved project timeframe. The annual cost of extending the capacity to do air monitoring for another five year period ( ) is approximately $130,000 per year, plus taxes. This cost can also be absorbed in the existing base budget. CONCLUSION The Peel Region Air Quality Modelling Program provides very valuable data to further our understanding of sources of poor air quality, and to inform decisions related to how growth, land use, and transportation decisions may impact future air quality and health. This data would otherwise be unavailable if Peel Public Health were to rely solely on provincial monitoring infrastructure. Nancy Polsinelli, Commissioner of Health Services Lawrence Loh, MD MPH CCFP FRCPC FACPM Acting Medical Officer of Health - 5 -

6 8.1-6 Approved for Submission: D. Szwarc, Chief Administrative Officer For further information regarding this report, please contact Paul Callanan, Director Environmental Health, extension 2802, Authored By: Louise Aubin, Manager, Health Protection Reviewed by: Financial Support Unit - 6 -