Nuclear Power for the 21st Century

Transcription

1 Nuclear Power for the 21st Century Mujid S. Kazimi Director, Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems TEPCO Professor of Nuclear Engineering Professor of Mechanical Engineering tel Introductory Remarks at Symposium on Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle, MIT March 6, 2007 MIT Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems 1

2 The largest non-fossil supplier of electricity in the US and worldwide 103 US reactors, 442 World wide US: 99.5 GWe, 20% of production World: 347 GWe, 16% of production No order for US nuclear plants since 1975, but in 2005 nuclear production was the highest ever. US plants have run at 90% capacity in 2005, up from 71% in GWe of uprates were permitted in the last decade. Nuclear Energy Today USA 44 reactor licenses extended, from 40 to 60 years. Applications for an additional 3 GWe are pending US utilities recently declared plans for license applications for 30 new light water reactors (LWRs) China, India, Russia and South Korea have declared plans to add about 110 new reactors by

3 Why New Nuclear Orders? Source: Joe Turnage, Constellation 3

4 2003 Carbon Emissions and Expected Increase by

5 Nuclear energy emissions to environment are thousands of times less by volume or mass than fossil fuels. Nuclear need for land is 10,000 times less per MWhr-e than biofuel, and 100s times less than wind, or solar. 5

6 Natural Gas Price Volatility A Huge Issue HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS PRICE WEEKLY DATA $14 ($/MMBTU) Declining production for six quarters $12 Coldest Nov/Dec on Record/S.T. Demand > S.T. Supply Hurricane Katrina $10 Massive Cold Front and Well Freeze Off $8 March 1993 Blizzard January 1996 Blizzard Early Winter 1996/97 Hurricane Ivan $6 Technical Factors $4 Hurricane Andrew January 1994 Blizzard Hurricane Georges $2 $0 Mild Winter Hurricane Opal Hurricane Danny Excess Storage and Mild Winter Source: NGW and EVA, Inc. 6

7 Comparative Costs in 2010 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh CF IGCC w/o cap PC w/o cap Biomass 40 Nuclear Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Source: EPRI Study

8 Nuclear Energy Economics Key Factors - Plant cost is about 70% of cost of electricity - Depends on duration of construction and effective Interest rate on capital. - Nuclear fuel is only 15% of cost of electricity Industry Solutions Simplification: W-AP1000 uses 2 not 4 loops & GE-ESBWR eliminates pumps Standardization: fixed design for multiple units Large Capacity: Several models at 1500 MWe Construction time 5 yrs, as in Japan and France $ per KWe $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $12,000 $25,000 Government Solutions - Energy Act 2005 Production credits up to 6000 MWe Regulatory reform, and Insurance for delays Loan guarantees for non-emission $3,000 $2,000 Innovative Technology Solutions Increase reactor power density New fuel design Improved coolant properties - nanofluids Increase power conversion efficiency High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors $1,000 $0 Coal- IGCC 80% 90% 30% 90% 75% 30% 43% 60% 25% 24% Nuclear Gas Geo Biomass Wind Hydro Fuel cells Solarthermal $/KWe Eff. $/KWe Cap Factor PV Nuclear as a base loaded electricity source beats all other sources but coal. Gas is only competitive below $5/MBTU. Question is how far off are Carbon taxes? 8

9 Cycle Thermodynamic Efficiency (%) Advanced Power Cycles: He and Supercritical CO 2 Gas Turbines Supercritical CO 2 Advanced Steam He Turbine Inlet Temperature ( C) While a He gas turbine plant is already 25 times smaller than the steam turbine equipment, a CO 2 turbine size is smaller by another factor of 8. Steam turbine: 55 stages / 250 MWe Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., Japan (with casing) 4 stages 450 MWth 17 stages, 300 MWth Source: Dostal, Hejzlar & Driscoll, MIT,

10 Why Supercritical CO 2 Power Cycles Should be Developed Highly Compact Cycle Requires Moderate Temperatures Compatible with many reactor concepts Advanced Gas Reactors (CO 2 Cooled) Gas Fast Reactors (CO 2 cooled) Sodium Cooled Reactors Lead Cooled Reactors High Temperature Helium Cooled Reactors In practice is it less challenging, and more forgiving than helium turbine machinery? Can it be made compatible with fossil gas fired plants? 10