Rio+20 Voluntary Commitments to Sustainable Transport: What Impact on Sustainable Development Indicators? Michael Replogle

Transcription

1 Rio+20 Voluntary Commitments to Sustainable Transport: What Impact on Sustainable Development Indicators? Michael Replogle Ins$tute for Transporta$on & Development Policy March 8, 2013, Kick- Off Workshop

2 Agenda 9:00 Introduc$on & context (M. Replogle, ITDP & Ko Sakamoto, ADB) 9:15 Using MoMo for analysis (L. Fulton, ITS Davis & Francois Cuenot, IEA) 9:45 MoMo for urban scenario analysis (Aimee Aguilar Jaber, ITF/OECD) 10:00 Roadmap: recent findings, and poten$al contribu$ons (Kate Blumberg, ICCT) 10:15 Sustainability impacts: What to evaluate? (M. Replogle, moderator) 10:30 Poten$al scenario framing and narra$ves (C.Huizenga, moderator) 11:00 Defining best case vs. reference case outcome for Rio+20 VCs 12:00 Lunch Defining other alterna$ve outcomes for a compelling narra$ve Op$mal blend of investments and policies under VCs Overall direct and indirect impacts & key indicators 1:15 Tools, data, assump$ons needed for full- blown analysis & poten$al sources Framing objec$ves and scope for Phase I effort vs. Phase II effort 3:00 Summary and Next Steps (Lew Fulton and Michael Replogle) 3:30 Adjourn

3 The SLoCaT Partnership Improve the knowledge on sustainable, low carbon transport, help develop better policies and catalyze their implementation 65 Members: International Organizations Government Development Banks NGOs Private Sector - Academe African Development Bank (AfDB) * Asian Development Bank (ADB) * Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) *Believe Sustainability * Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP) * Centre for Environment Planning & Technology (CEPT), * Ahmedabad * Center for Science and Environment (CSE) * Center for Sustainable Transport (CTS) Mexico * Center for Transportation and Logistics Studies (PUSTRAL), Gadjah Mada University * Civic Exchange (CE) * Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities (CAI-Asia) Center * Clean Air Institute (CAI) * German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) * EMBARQ, The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport * Energy Research Center Netherlands (ECN) * Fraunhofer- Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)* Global Environmental Facility (GEF) * Global Transport Knowledge Partnership (gtkp) * Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) * Interface for Cycling Expertise (I-CE) * International Association for Public Transport (UITP * International Energy Agency (IEA) * International Transport Forum (ITF) * International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) * International Union of Railways (UIC) * Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) * Institute of Urban Transport India (IUTI)* Institute for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS) Institute for Transport and Development Policy (ITDP) * Institute for Transport and Development Policy (ITDP) Europe * Institute of Transport Studies (ITS), University of California, Davis * Korean Transport Institute (KOTI) * Ministry of Land Infrastructure Transport and Tourism, Japan * National Center for Transportation Studies (NCTS), Philippines * Rockefeller Foundation * Society of Indian Automotive Manufacturers (SIAM) * Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) * The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) * Transport and Environment (T+E) * Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) * United Nations Center for Regional Development (UNCRD) * United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs (UN-DESA) * United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) * University College of London, Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering * University of Transport and Communication (UTCC) Hanoi * VEOLIA Transport * World Street * WWF International

4 Promoting New Paradigm from Predict and Provide to. Solutions for Sustainable Transport Avoid Shift Improve Avoid the need to travel Shift to more efficient transport modes Improve fuel and vehicle technologies

5 Sustainable Transport: enables access to goods and services that support equitable development while limi6ng short and long term adverse consequences for environmental, social and economic services and systems. Social Economic Environmental

6 Partnering to Advance Sustainable Transport SHIFT PAY ADD ANALYZE

7 Background RIO+20 Conference: 16 voluntary commitments (VCs) to advance sustainable transport by members of Partnership on Sustainable Low Carbon Transport (SLoCaT) : Rio+20 Voluntary Commitment Sustainable Transport Commitment by MDBs: USD $175 b MDB plus technical assistance Traffic safety commitments Global fuel economy standards Low sulfur fuel standards Cycling inclusive urban transport Sustainable urban mobility pilot ci$es Design standards for BRT; design standards for transit oriented development Partners 8 largest Multliateral Development Banks (MDBs) FIA, IRAP FIA, ICCT, IEA, ITF, UNEP UNEP, PCFV partners Dutch Cycling Embassy UNHabitat, ICLEI, ITDP, UITP, CODATU, MDBs, etc ITDP

8 Background RIO+20 Conference: 16 voluntary commitments (VCs) to advance sustainable transport by members of Partnership on Sustainable Low Carbon Transport (SLoCaT) : Rio+20 Voluntary Commitment Environmentally Sustainable Transport Forums Advancing Na$onal Urban Transport Policy Sustainable Urban Transport capacity building Green freight Cycling inclusive transport Doubling public transport market share by 2025 Sustainable urban transport & ci$es Sustainable urban development & transport Partners UNDESA, IDB, WB, etc. ITDP GIZ CAI- Asia, SSCCAP Dutch Cycling Embassy, Velo- Mondial UITP WRI/EMBARQ UIC

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10 Voluntary Commitment by MDBs ShiE $175 billion of MDB transport funding over next decade from road expansion to more sustainable transport Road safety Public transport Fuel economy and fuel standards Sustainable transport 500 Staff to provide knowledge & experwse Green freight Urban transport Non- motorized transport Assistance to 150 Countries

11 Voluntary Commitment to monitoring & annual reporwng by MDBs and SLoCaT partners Financing Policies Sustainable Transport Capacity Knowledge

12 MDB Funding Is Shifting Towards Sustainable Transport Asian Development Bank Transport Funding

13 MDBs funds leverage added public & private investment MDB joint commitment: We expect that par6cular aspects of the sustainable transport agenda such as improving access and mobility for the poor, reducing transport- related GHG emissions, and improving road safety will jus6fy the establishing of special financing facili6es by donor countries and, poten6ally, sovereign wealth funds and the private sector Our ins6tu6ons stand ready to assist in the crea6on and administering of such special facili6es.

14 Annual Global Transport Investment by Source

15 Follow up on Rio+20 Sustainable Transport Commitments SLoCaT with MDBs supporwng: UN Sustainable Transport Ac$on Network, Secretary General s Sustainable Transport Working Group, likely High- Level Panel Friends of Transport UN caucus

16 Follow up on Rio+20 Sustainable Transport Commitments SLoCaT, MDBs, UN agency support for Environmentally Sustainable Transport & other intergovernmental fora Linking na$onal ministries in Asia, La$n America, Africa Advancing na$onal transport policy reforms

17 Millenium Development Goals Passenger Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Achieve Universal primary educa$on Promote gender equality and empower women Transport Reduce Child Mortality Improve Maternal Health Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other dieseases Ensure Environmental Sustainability Freight Develop a Global Partnership for Development

18 High Level Poli$cal Forum on Sustainable Development (Successor to Commission on Sustainable Development) UN- Secretary General led: High Level Panel of Eminent Persons on Post 2015 Development Agenda (Cameron, Yudhoyono, Sirleaf) UN- Task Team on Post 2015 Development Agenda (internal UN- team) High Level Group on Sustainable Transport (HLG- ST) Country (Party) led: Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGS) Intergovernmental comminee for financing of sustainable development (Norway and Kazakhstan led) Group of Friends on Sustainable Transport (Netherlands and Thai led) Technical Working Group (TWG) on Sustainable Transport (supports HLG- ST) Regional EST Forums (Africa, Asia, Europe and La6n America) Na$onal Transport Policies City Transport Policies City Transport Policies City Transport Policies

19 Goals for Transport Voluntary Commitments Impacts Study (TVCI Study) Evaluate & report on potenwal sustainable development impacts of Rio+20 VCs Phase 1: input to fall 2013 UN discussions of sustainable development & Nov 2013 Warsaw global climate summit Phase 2: input to mid- late 2014 work of High Level Panel on Sustainable Transport, related post UN development agenda, UNFCCC discussions of post framework for climate policy & transport mi$ga$on opportuni$es Need to consider all aspects of sustainability social, environmental, economic Success will require collaborawon of SLoCaT member and MDB working group building on VCs

20 20 Credit: Yang JIANG, Daizong LIU, Suping CHEN, Assessment Tools for China Low- Carbon- City Projects From the CSTC s PerspecWve, 2011

21 Moving Cooler Study Analysis by Cambridge SystemaWcs for mulwple partners: Shell Oil ITS America U.S. Federal Highway AdministraWon U.S. Federal Transit AdministraWon U.S. Environmental ProtecWon Agency American Public TransportaWon AssociaWon Natural Resources Defense Council Environmental Defense Kresge FoundaWon Surdna FoundaWon Rockefeller Brothers Fund Rockefeller FoundaWon Urban Land InsWtute 21

22 Strategy Bundles Illustrative Analysis Near- Term/ Early Results Low Cost Long- Term/ Maximum Results Facility Pricing Land Use/ Nonmotorized/ Public Transporta$on System and Driver Efficiency 22

23 23 Deployment Levels

24 Build TVCI Study on Prior Methods for Quick Analysis Moving Cooler Study: Market segmentawon expert judgment based impact analysis Moving Cooler, Cambridge Systema$cs, 2009

25 Pricing MulWplies EffecWveness of TransportaWon Investment and Management Measures Total Surface TransportaWon Sector GHG Emissions (mmt) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 7% 19% 12% 18% 1,200 1, % 35% & 2005 GHG Emissions CombinaWon of DOE AEO data and EPA GHG Inventory data Study Baseline Annual 1.4% VMT growth combined with 1.9% growth in fuel economy Study Baseline Aggressive Economy- Wide Pricing Aggressive GHG emissions from bundle deployed at aggressive level without economy wide pricing measures Moving Cooler, Cambridge Systema$cs, 2009

26 Moving Cooler: US Transport Strategy Appraisal Moving Cooler

27 Moving Cooler: Scenario and Bundle- Based Analysis 1. Road/Parking Pricing 2. Land Use 3. Traffic Systems Op$miza$on 4. Mul$- Modal Freight

28 Pricing Land Use Parking Mgmt. Parking Pricing Motor fuel taxes Road user fees and tolls Conges$on pricing and real- $me conges$on pricing, cordon pricing Pay- as- you- drive insurance Motor vehicle registra$on fees and taxes Motor vehicle quota systems Carsharing Programs Public transport oriented development (TOD) Codes and prac$ce Reform and Enforcement Car free zones & restricted traffic streets Selected Travel Demand Management Strategies Managing on- street parking supply Establishing parking requirements Strategies that primarily influence traffic speeds Non- Motorized Transport New and improved sidewalks and pedestrian crossings Improving bicycle infrastructure, networks, and bicyclist accommoda$ons Commuter Travel ReducWon Flex$me schedules Compressed work weeks Regulatory License plate restric$ons Bus useful life regula$on and vehicle phase- out, scrappage programs System OperaWons & Mgmt. Reduce na$onal speed limits on motorways with Enforcement Ac$ve traffic management Traffic calming Rideshare matching Eco- driving Bike sharing systems Tax incen$ves for public transport use, ridesharing, walking, biking and disincen$ves for employee provided free parking Fleet maintenance programs Bicycle parking Telework Arterial street management & traffic signal synchroniza$on Bicycle integra$on with public transport Pricing mechanisms to reduce employee travel (e.g., cash- in- lieu of free parking) Company and government car reform policies (e.g., cashing out benefits) Intelligent Transporta$on Systems & Telema$cs Real- $me traveler info. systems and real- $me incident management and clearance Ramp metering Strategies that primarily influence VKT & mode shares

29 Deconstruct Impacts of Scenarios for Transport Policy, Infrastructure, Services IntervenWons

30 TVCI Study Should Account for Worldwide Trend of Growing Urban CongesWon, Falling Urban Traffic Speeds hnp://mobility.tamu.edu/ums/conges$on_data/na$onal_conges$on_tables.stm CongesWon in US CiWes: Worse in Several Dimensions Seoul Korea Seoul Metropolitan Government, hnp://ops.qwa.dot.gov/conges$on_report/execu$ve_summary.htm

31 Traffic in Developing CiWes is Geong More Congested But Management Strategies Can Reverse This in central Beijing (within the third ring expressway), the average traffic speed was 45km/hour in 1994, 33km/ hour in 1995, 20 km/hour in 1996, and 12 km/hour in On some arterial roads, the speed has dropped to 7 km/hour. During the rush hours, about 20 percent of roads and intersec6ons are in total gridlock and the traffic speed is less than 5 km/hour. The average speed of buses in major central ci6es has dropped from km/ hour in the 1950s, to 20-25km/hour in the 1970s, 14-20km/hour in the 1980s, to 10-15km/hour in the 1990s. In 2003, the average bus speed was about 9.2 km/hour in Beijing, and 10 km/hour in Shanghai in Zhong- Ren Peng, Ph.D., Urban TransportaWon Strategies in Chinese CiWes and Their Impacts on the Urban Poor No TDM With TDM No TDM With TDM

32 CongesWon Creates Far Higher GHG s The Emission factors for automobiles opera$ng in ci$es can vary by almost 400% based on opera$ng speed and driving condi$ons due to conges$on.

33 Account for CongesWon Measures

34 Link Transport AcWvity, Motor Vehicle Ownership, Infrastructure Spending to Other Key Factors Air pollu$on and public health indicators Traffic fatali$es Equity of access to jobs and opportuni$es Share of household income spent on transport and housing Jobs created in rela$on to transport investment/service Phase 1: use of placeholder relawonships and models Phase 2: extend and link to more robust models Goal: to move towards expert consensus on baselines, scenario assumpwons, model linkages, and appropriate placeholders

35 Thank you Your collaborawon and ideas are invited! Michael Replogle for & Development Policy

36 Extra Slides

37 TDM Proven to Reduce CongesWon Powerful Examples: and General Car Use London CongesWon Pricing 15% Reduc$on in VKT Increased Bus Emissions offset by new vehicle technology, paid for by conges$on fees 19.5% ReducWon in Transport CO2 Travel Blending - SanWago, Chile Travel Blending - Providing people with informa$on on commu$ng op$ons through a personalized process and facilita$ng changes in travel behavior. Effec$ve low- cost emission reduc$ons op$on 17% reducwon in car driver trips 23% reducwon in VKT 17% reducwon in Wme spent driving - Steer Davies Gleave

38 TDM Proven to Reduce CongesWon Powerful Examples: and General Car Use Paris Transport Demand Management Through removing 9% of parking spaces, adding 20,000 shared bicycles, Paris has managed to decrease vehicle kilometers traveled by 13% between Data Source: Paris Transport and Travel Report (2007) Beijing Vehicle Quota (VQS) Requires buyer to acquire a license before purchasing a car. 60% reducwon in automobile licenses in 2011 compared to Ernst & Young

39 TDM Proven to Reduce CongesWon and General Car Use Examples Documented by German Agency for InternaWonal Development (GIZ): Car license plate restric$on program restricts 38% of vehicles each day in Bogotá Colombia, and about 20% in Mexico City. Pricing Parking typically reduces parking demand 10-30% Charging employees directly for parking oten reduces automobile commuwng by 10-30% In developed countries, commuter travel reduc$on (CTR) programs typically reduce peak- period car trips by 10-30% at a work site A Bri$sh CTR program found: 18% reducwon in number of cars arriving to their work site Companies can reduce car use by 5-10% simply through basic measures such as company bicycles and car- pooling

40 RESOURCES: Growing Cooler, 2007 This study by several of the top urban planning modelers uses Structural Equa$on modeling with a longitudinal and cross sec$on models to sta$s$cal methodology for evalua$ng complex hypotheses involving mul$ple, interac$ng variables in this case transport and land use. Moving Cooler, 2010 This study by Cambridge Systema$cs is also by a number of the top minds and uses similar modeling techniques to derive the impact of dozens of TDM strategies and also provides cost data. Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc. System Opera$on strategies (eco- driving, speed mgmt. traffic smoothing etc) can reduce highway GHG by 10-20% in the US Compact land use can also reduce 3-5% of GHG emissions in the US. TDM Encyclopedia, Victoria TransportaWon Policy InsWtute Training document on Transporta@on Demand Management German Agency for Interna$onal Development (GIZ, formerly GTZ)