Reading The Tea Leaves

Transcription

1 1 Reading The Tea Leaves Market Inflection Drivers for Electricity: - Today's Trends, Tomorrow's Energy Needs Wisconsin Public Utility Institute May 2016

2 2 Introduction Martin Day Manager Forecasting and Optimization Madison Gas & Electric (MGE) MGE- Electric and Gas Utility Serve urban Dane County Area for electricity and gas and several suburban/rural areas in Wisconsin gas only 145,000 electric and gas customers, predominately residential and small commercial, UW Madison Campus 778MW all time electric peak demand Forecasting and Optimization Department Role: How do our customers use energy? past/present/future 15-Minute/hourly/daily/monthly/annual/30 years customers/sales/revenues/demands/energy efficiency financial/rates/planning/operations/marketing/distribution

3 3 Forecasting Methods

4 4 National Trends

5 5 Energy and GDP Relationship Source: DOE, US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, April 2014

6 6 Energy Intensity Source: DOE, US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 2015

7 7 Electric Sales

8 8 Electric Customer Growth

9 9 Electric Retail Price

10 10 End Use Efficiencies Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies Office.

11 11 End Use Efficiencies Source: DOE, US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 2015

12 12 End Use Efficiencies Source: DOE, US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 2015

13 13 Alternative Fuel Vehicles Source: DOE, US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 2015

14 14 Distributed Resources

15 15 Wisconsin/MGE Specific Trends

16 16 Wisconsin Utilities - Electric Sales

17 17 Wisconsin Utilities - Electric Customers

18 18 Wisconsin Utilities - Electric Use Per Customer

19 19 MGE Residential Utility Bills

20 20 Madison Economic Conditions MADISON - ECONOMIC HEALTH CHECK 3-MO MA Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Employment, change, 000's Unemployment rate, % Labor force participation rate, % Employment-to-population ratio, % Average weekly hours, # Industrial production, 2007= Residential permits, single-family, # 1,103 1,228 1,168 1,245 1,164 1,244 Residential permits, multifamily, # 4,440 3,398 2,651 2,188 2,177 2,406 Better than prior 3-mo MA Unchanged from prior 3-mo MA Worse than prior 3-mo MA Source: BLS, Census Bureau, Moody's Analytics

21 21 Madison Economic Conditions MADISON - EMPLOYMENT TRENDS % CHANGE YEAR AGO, 3-MO MA Apr-14 Aug 14 Dec 14 Total Construction Manufacturing Trade Trans/Utilities Information Financial Activities Prof & Business Svcs Edu & Health Svcs Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Source: BLS, Census Bureau, Moody's Analytics

22 22 MGE Residential Customer Growth

23 23 MGE Residential Customer Additions Single vs Multi-Family

24 24 MGE Residential Electric Usage Single vs Multi-Family

25 25 MGE Residential Electric Usage Persons Per Household

26 26 MGE Residential Electric Usage Household Income Ranges

27 27 MGE Residential Electric Usage GIS Example

28 28 Dane County Demographics

29 29 Dane County Demographics

30 30 Dane County Demographics

31 31 Dane County Demographics

32 32 Dane County Demographics

33 33 Dane County Demographics

34 34 Dane County Demographics

35 35 Dane County Demographics

36 36 Dane County Demographics

37 37 MGE Customer Psychographics Customer Opinions Turn off lights when leave room 4.5 Careful about spending money Conserving energy is key to reducing foreign dependency My household could reduce our energy use by 5% 3.5 Intend to reduce home's energy use in the next 12 months Intend to invest in more efficient appliances or increase insulation Being comfortable in home is worth higher energy cost Important to have option to purchase wind or solar power, even if it costs more Household is one of the first to purchase new technology products When I have an energy-related question I typically go to mge.com Usually change thermostat instead of adding or removing clothes (1=Strongly disagree and 5=Strongly agree)

38 38 Forecasting Methods

39 39