Motorization and Environmental Problem in Asia Kiyoyuki Minato Japan Automobile Research Institute

Transcription

1 JARI JBIC-LPEM Workshop in Jakarta Motorization and Environmental Problem in Asia Kiyoyuki Minato Japan Automobile Research Institute 1

2 Contents 1. Japanese Environmental Policy 2. Motorization in Asia 3. Air pollution in Asia 4. Strategy for Environmental Policy in Asia 2

3 Surroundings of Automobiles Three major issues : Energy, CO2 reduction, Air quality Global Warming Energy CO2 reduction Urban Environment CO2 Energy Emissions

4 Motorization and Environment in Asia Urbanization Motorization Environmental deterioration with the economic growth in Japan (1970's) Economic Growth Environment Policy Increase of healthy damage Serious air pollution New Technology Clean Air

5 Motorization and Environment in Asia We should not do the same experience!! We should utilize past experience effectively

6 Vehicle polluting and Environmental Polices (Environmental issues caused by Motor vehicles) (1) 1951 Inspection & Maintenance starts (2) 1970 Detect of health damage caused by automobile airpollution (3) 1971 start to sell unleaded gasoline sale (4) 1973 Air Pollution Control Act (5) 1978 Emission regulation(japanese's Muskie's law) (6) 1992 Control of NOx emission (7) (7) 1997 Long term regulation (Diesel) (8) 2000 Emission regulation (Gasoline) (9) 2002 Control of of NOx and PM (10) 2005 New long term regulation (Gasoline & Diesel) (6) (11) 2009 Post New regulation (Gasoline & Diesel ) (9) (8) (10) (11) (2) (3) (4) (5) (1) 6

7 Japan s Effort for Air Quality Improvement ** Effective Effective combination combination of of emission/fuel emission/fuel regulations. regulations. ** Air Air quality quality improving improving or or stable stable despite despite expanding expanding vehicle vehicle fleet. fleet. CO NO2 & SPM 5.0 National Average Measurement 80 Consentration(ppm) Roadside measurement Residential area measurement Motor Vehicle population Motor Vehicle population(m ) 2005 Rate for meeting environmental quality standards (Source: Ministry of the Environment) Nitrogen dioxide NO 2 Suspended particulate matter SPM Residential area Roadside Residential area Roadside Achieved rate 99.9% 91.3% 96.4% 93.7% Regulation of lead in gasoline '87 Phase out leaded gasoline '73 gasoline vhl reg '75 gasoline vhl reg '78 gasoline vhl reg '00 gasoline vhl reg '05 gasoline vhl reg Source: Air Pollution Report, 2005", Ministry of the Environment

8 Tax Incentives to Promote the Use of Fuel- Efficient, Low Emission Green tax Vehicles started in Japan Strict of condition Improved Fuel Economy Clean Vehicles (10,000 units) clean energy Low Emission Vehicles :emission down by 25% from 2000 : emission down by 50% from 2000 : emission down by 50% from 2005 : emission down by 75% from

9 Government Policy Effective Policy for promoting Clean Vehicles Without control to hold of passenger cars, The most effective method of combination of regulation and treatment Regulation to makers 1Fuel economy 2Emission regulations Incentive measures to Consumer 3Tax incentive 4subsidy Supplies clean car in market Support clean car purchase of consumers Promoting Clean vehicles 9

10 Three Actions Required for Environmental/Energy Control (1) Action for air pollution problem Radical reduction of toxic substances in exhaust gas (2) Action for global warming problem Radical reduction of CO2 emission volume (3) Action for energy control Energy countermeasures in the transportation sector dependent excessively on oil (Use of oil-alternative fuels, etc.) Solving the three problems in balance is required. 10

11 Motor vehicles in use (units) Motorization in Asia Strong correlation between motorization and GDP The growth rate of passenger cars is faster than that of GDP. 100,000,000 10,000,000 1,000, Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand India Korea China Japan 100,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 GDP (1990 US$ ppp) 11

12 Air Pollution in Asian Large Cities According to WHO report (2002), 2/3 of death by air pollution is concentrated in Asia. Latest Year( ) City CO NO2 PM10 O3 SOx Lead Jakarta 2003 E C C C D D Kuala Lumpur 2004 N.A. D D C A N.A. Manila 2002 A E C C C B Bangkok 2002 A D A A C B Ho Chi Minh City 2002 C E E N.A. E E Beijing 2005 E E D N.A. C N.A City CO NO2 PM10 O3 SOx Lead Jakarta 1990 C B D C C C Kuala Lumpur 1990 C C B C B C Manila 1990 D D D D B C Bangkok 1990 B B E B B C Ho Chi Minh City 1990 N.A. N.A N.A N.A. N.A N.A Beijing 1990 D D E C A B A B C D E 50 % below from WHO standard Within WHO standard Within 200 % over from WHO standard Within 300 % over WHO standard 300 % over from WHO standard 12 Sources: official site of AQM,WB,ADB

13 Integrated policy for sustainable transport in Asia Should be improved Items in Asia: Build up I&M Programs Improving Fuel Quality Strengthen Emission Regulations Promote Clean Vehicles (CNG,LPG,EV,HEV) Air Quality Monitoring Public Campaign and Education for Environment Air with good quality brings people to a healthy society. 13

14 Vehicle Emission Standards in Asia (new light-duty vehicles) Fuel Quality Standards in Asia (levels of sulfur in diesel) European Union (10) f 10 India (nationwide) India (metros) a 50 a Indonesia Japan Malaysia c 500 d 50a Philippines PRC (nationwide) e 50 a PRC - Beijing a Singapore Thailand Viet Nam > 500 ppm ppm < 50 ppm

15 Relations between Fuel Improvement and Vehicle Technology Fuel improvement Combined Emission ( Cooperation of the industry area regulation is important ) Vehicle Technology Low Emission Reliability Fuel Economy Air quality improvement Energy Security CO2 Reduction Increase Government Initiative for Fuel Quality Improvement 15

16 The Impact of Implementation Lags for Emission Reduction the length of the lag determines whether emissions decline significantly, declines slightly or increase by PM-10 emissions Trucks Buses M/C 1 emission control 2 poor fuel 3 lack of maintenance LDV Source Mobility

17 Conclusion: A Governmental Initiative for Better Air Quality Needs Effective Policies Needs Consensus Needs Public Awareness 17