Aktuelle Herausforderungen der Solarbranche aus Sicht des Herstellers

Transcription

1 Aktuelle Herausforderungen der Solarbranche aus Sicht des Herstellers Renewable Energy Finance 2011 Konferenz am 1. Juni 2011 in der Frankfurt School of Finance & Management Dr. Frank C. Feyen

2 The photovoltaic market Further Growth is expected in the next years PV installations worldwide Forecast PV installations worldwide Rapid growth since implementation of first support mechanisms Growth rate constantly above 20% Majority of investment banks predict further growth Further subsidy programmes and beginning commercial markets Inventux Technologies AG 2

3 The photovoltaic market in the long run Photovoltaic will develop towards terawatt market size Forecast of new PV installations PV market maturity PV market today Photovoltaic market is at the beginning of its life cycle Further cost reductions will enable PV to penetrate more and more energy market segments Global energy demand will rise as well as the electricity share in overall energy demand Inventux Technologies AG 3

4 Inventux at a glance High Performance Solar Systems by German Engineers Basics: No. 1 European thinfilm manufacturer Headquartered in Berlin, Germany 250 employees Positive EBITDA and EAT in 2010 > 60 Mio EUR turnover in 2010 Production: Production in Berlin (30 MWp Front-End, 100 MWp Backend) Fastest ramp-up in the industry Highest fab utilization, yield and conversion efficiency 40 scientists & engineers in R&D Sales: European Sales network with > 250 customers Own EPC business with focus on commercial roof-top market Strong brand with premium positioning Bankability Inventux Technologies AG 4

5 Inventux track record From concept to serial production Company Foundation Funding secured through equity capital, debt and subsidies Strategic partnership with Oerlikon in area of micromorph thinfilm technology Expansion and conversion of production site Organisational setup Customer network set up in Germany Debut presentation at Intersolar Start of production in december TÜV certification in May Set up and expansion of sales & distribution Complete sellout of production Internationalisation Module efficiency rates exceed 9% 2 MWp reference photovoltaic plant Positive EBITDA and EAT Installation of thousandth photovoltaic plant Set up of EPC company Inventux Solar Solutions Achieved 10% module efficiency rate (stabilised) Expansion of product portfolio to include system components Inventux Technologies AG 5

6 Inventux strategic positioning Leading position in its focus segment achieved Inventux Technologies AG 6

7 Inventux core product Outstanding product features Product Award-winning premium product Frameless, aesthetic glass/glass design Ideal surface area of 1,10 x 1,30m, only 7,2 mm high Yield Superior performance in less than optimum environmental conditions (weak light, high temperatures, clouding) Can be used on suboptimal surfaces, e.g. east-west roofs, flat roofs, partially shaded surfaces Quality Tried and tested encapsulation technology resistant to humidity and frosting Twice the pressure load possible as required by TÜV (German Technical Inspection Agency) Protection from corrosion and static fatigue due to integrated stainless steel back bars Environment No harmful toxic materials used recycling possible without complicated recycling concept Price Attractive price-performance ratio in premium segment Inventux Technologies AG 7

8 Inventux product portfolio Inventux offers solutions for different customers along the entire solar value chain Solar Modules Mounting System Solar Module Projects Inverters Cabling Module 2009 Integrated backbar system with low assembly cost System 2010 A one-stop-shop for complete photovoltaic system at reduced prize by low logistic cost and lower volume prize Solution 2011 Successful project business started Inventux Technologies AG 8

9 Inventux reference projects Inventux has gained experience across all sizes of installations Inventux Technologies AG 9

10 Inventux R&D Micromorph technology roadmap forecasts efficiencies of more than 12% Inventux Technologies AG 10

11 The photovoltaic market in the long run PV market is just at the beginning of its life-cycle Forecast of new PV installations PV market maturity PV market today Increase of PV installations due to: 1 Further subsidy programmes 2 Price competitiveness 3 Electricity demand increase 4 Climate change actions Inventux Technologies AG 11

12 (1) Further subsidy programmes Support mechanisms remain important demand factor Selected RE goals Country Share 2010 Share 2015 Share 2020 EU [1] 17 % % DE [2] 16,7 % 20 % 35 % USA [3] 11 % 15 % China [4] 8,3 % 11,4 % 15 % India [5] 4-6 % 10 % 15 % Subsidy market Feed-in tariffs Direct subsidies Certificates Tax benefits Sources: [1] - [2] - [3] - [4] - [5] - Inventux Technologies AG 12

13 (1) Further subsidy programmes More and more countries adopt favorable policies PV market shares Inventux Technologies AG 13

14 (1) Further subsidy programmes FIT tariffs will be reduced until grid parity is reached Fit tariffs in Germany ( /MWh) Source: Goldman Sachs (2011) Inventux Technologies AG 14

15 (2) Price competitiveness Module prices drop while fossil fuel prices rise Module prices (US$/Wp) Fossil Fuel prices Inventux Technologies AG 15

16 (2) Price competitiveness Micromorph technology has experienced highest cost reduction rates Production cost development of main players ( /Wp) Polysilicon price development ($/kg ) Cost reductions in crystalline technology mainly due to reductions in polysilicon prices Flattening of cost reduction curves Especially Asian players had to purchase polysilicon on the spot market No major improvements in polysilicon costs expected for the next years Inventux Technologies AG 16

17 (2) Price competitiveness Experience curves of PV technologies: Micromorph technology has the lowest cost structure Calculation notes: Future production cost calculated with the learning curve model (BCG) on base of existing costs Production cost /Wp 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 Typical factors f : 0,75 (high tech) 0,90 (old economy) 0,78 (photovoltaics) 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 Conclusion: 0,78 fits for Inventux, which leads to costs of 0,33 /Wp (1 GWp cumulated production) f=0,78 0, First Solar Yingli/Trina Inventux Cumulated production (MWp) Source: Green (2010), PV Group (2010), GTM Research (2010), company websites Inventux Technologies AG 17

18 (2) Price competitiveness Solar PV will be competitive to baseload power with 1 /Wp system costs Levelized cost of electricity ($/MWh) 1 /Wp Source: Goldman Sachs (2011) Inventux Technologies AG 18

19 (2) Price competitiveness System costs development will reduce LCOE below 0,10 /kwh Parameter System price ( /Wp) Depreciation period (years) Operating costs (% of system cost) x 20 0,5% System efficiency 85% Irradiance (kwh/m 2 /year) Equity share 20% Debt Share 80% Interest rate year ,25 % Interest rate year 11+ 5,5% Inventux Technologies AG 19

20 (2) Price competitiveness High irradiation is primarily outside the subsidized market Electricity demand in sun belt in 2015: ca. 5,222 TWh 1 (+ ca. 8,599 TWh for US and China) GDP in sun belt: ca. 8,367.2 billion US$ 2 World electricity demand in 2015: 20,757 TWh 1 1: Source: World Energy Outlook : Source: Earth Trends, World Resources Institute. Data from 2006 Inventux Technologies AG 20

21 (3) Electricity demand increase In 40 years, photovoltaics could occupy 25% of the energy market Share Energy fuels Trend Oil 29% 21% - Coal 19,4% 6,1% - Gas 27,7% 25,4% - Nuclear 3,9% 0,4% - Hydro 2,8% 1,7% - Biomass 9,7% 8,7% - Wind 4,1% 10,5% + Solar PV 0,7% 25,2% + Solar Thermal 2,1% 3,5% + Other Renewables 0,7% 1,7% + Data base: WBGU (2003/2010) Inventux Technologies AG 22

22 (4) Climate change actions CO2 concentration reaches critical level Challenge: Accelerating CO2 concentration Accelerating global warming IPCC Emission scenarios: 450 ppm CO2 concentration in atmosphere 2 C temperature increase to pre-industrial level; Means: Emission reduction beginning latest in % reduction of CO2 emissions until 2050 (2000 levels) Inventux Technologies AG 23

23 (4) Climate change actions Switch to renewable energy mix can substantially lower CO2 emissions CO2 emissions of electricity genratin technologies CO2 emissions PV Technologies Source: IZT (2010) Source: EPIA (2011) Inventux Technologies AG 24

24 Will we fit the future market demands? FIT between market demands and company ressources must be reached Market and competition Market size? Customer needs? Purchase motivation? Sales channels? Regulations? Political-/socio-economic situation? Financing needs/invest size? Competitiors? Substitutes? Price sensitivity? FIT Company Ressources Does the product fit? Do we offer everything to fulfill customer needs? Do we have the know-how for the product? Do we have the technology for the product? Does the market fit into our business model/marketing strategy? Do we have access to the customers/markets? Inventux Technologies AG 25