Beyond Copenhagen The Green Race is on

Transcription

1 Beyond Copenhagen The Green Race is on World Business Council for Sustainable Development Björn Stigson, WBCSD President 1

2 WBCSD Coalition of some 200 leading companies Market capitalization: 8,000 BUSD Total member company employees:13 million Global outreach Supplies products and services to half of the world s population every day 2

3 WBCSD Membership Utilities & Power 21 Oil & Gas Consumer Goods Mining & Metals Engineering Cement Chemicals Services Tires Forest & Paper Products IT & Telecoms Auto Banks & Insurance Construction Food & Beverages Healthcare Maritime Logistics Media Retail Aviation Trading 1 Water Services 1 3

4 WBCSD Membership Europe (EU) North America (NAFTA) Japan Europe (non-eu) Asia (ex-japan) Latin America Oceania Africa Middle East 1 4

5 WBCSD Regional Network Channel to globally disseminate WBCSD s messages, to promote implementation of concrete projects on the ground and to provide input to WBCSD work program

6 Agenda 1. The Surrounding World 2. WBCSD Work Program 3. WBCSD Strategy 6

7 A World in Transition to Sustainability Society Economy Environment 7

8 The Future Society: A growth story World population (in Billions): = 9.2 billion +33% 2010= 6.9 billion 85% Population in less developed countries 85% 1 Population in more developed countries Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. 15% 15%

9 Development: The Poverty Challenge Income poverty: Over 2 billion people live on less than $2/day Energy poverty: 1.6 billion people today without access to electricity Mobility poverty: 900 million people without access to transport Water poverty: 1.8 million deaths per year due to lack of sanitation, poor hygiene and unsafe drinking water. 9

10 The Urbanized Future 70% urban in 2050: 6 billion 2010: 3 billion Billions of inhabitants 70% urban Growth of mega-cities urban rural 36% urban 47% urban 60% urban London New York Paris Berlin Chicago Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision Source: Citymayors statistics, 2008 Tokyo Mumbai Delhi Dhaka Mexico City

11 Shifting Fortunes Emerging economies > 50% of global GDP and trend will continue Emerging economies Developed economies Source: Angus Maddison, OECD; IMF From The Economist print edition. Wrestling for influence. July 3rd % Share of GDP * At purchasing-power parity 0 11

12 Vision 2050 Vision 2050: Nine billion people living well, and within the limits of the planet A platform for dialogue about the role of business in a resource & carbon constrained world. 12

13 Ecological Footprint (Global Hectares per Person) Source: GFN / UNDP Living well, within limits of the planet Human Development Index (HDI) 13

14 Innovations & Transformations 14

15 Technology A World in Transition to Sustainability Geography Solutions Mindsets Economy Society Environment Regulations Infrastructure 15

16 Global Governance? Where will global leadership come from? WTO Doha Round? COP 15 Copenhagen? Financial system? UN? G-8, G-20, G-2? 16

17 Governments Short Term The Economy of my country? Key political concerns: Economic growth State of public finances Jobs/unemployment Green Growth : A part of the solution? 17

18 The Public is demanding more regulation

19 The World is Turning Green The Green Race is on between countries to transform to low carbon economies and to become the leading supplier of resource efficient technologies & solutions If you want to win: otransform your home market to build competences and scale 19

20 The World is Turning Green Key transformations: oenergy otransport ourban infrastructure ofood owater 20

21 A Transformed Energy System Less oil, more renewables and more nuclear Reduced carbon intensity of existing energy: CCS, sinks A focus on smart technology solutions: energy efficiency smart grids Demand side management New business models in the energy industry Increased electrification of transportation Pressure on affordable energy for development Value for carbon - carbon taxes/emissions trading 21

22 Additional investments to reach 450 ppm WBCSD 2010 Liaison Delegate Meeting SOURCE IEA- ETP,

23 The Food Challenge Source: FAO Stat 2009, UN population Michigan Division State University (2006), PwC Analysis

24 Food, Agriculture & Land-use changes Consequences for food consumption patterns and lifestyles? Agriculture and forestry = 30% global GHG emissions (IPCC 4 th assessment) Livestock is the world s largest user of land resources (70% of agricultural land) Major driver for deforestation 24

25 Water: The challenge 25

26 The World is Turning Green Japan: o Leader on energy efficient solutions o Started action after the oil crisis in the 70 s 26

27 The World is Turning Green EU: o Leader today / 40% market share o Announced in October a 300% increase in R&D for green technologies o But, is spending level sufficient and is the EU building a domestic green market fast enough? 27

28 The World is Turning Green US o The new administration is mobilizing the US innovation capacity to be world leader on green technologies o Jeffrey Immelt, CEO General Electric, March 3, 2010: Let s not take this growth industry and give it to every other country in the world but the U.S 28

29 The World is Turning Green China o Wants to be the leading exporter of green technologies o Key component of next 5-Year Plan ( ) o China PM Wen Jiabao, NPC March 5, 2010: o We urgently need to transform the pattern of economic development We will work hard to develop low-carbon technologies o John Doerr, Kleiner Perkins, March 5, 2010: o My conclusion is China is winning The results of their policies are staggering. 29

30 The World is Turning Green India o Supplier of low cost solutions based on domestic demand from a big & poor population? 30

31 Growing role of business...while governments provide the necessary policy framework, the real solutions must come from business. Copenhagen did not provide us with a clear agreement in legal terms, but the political commitment and sense of direction toward a low-emissions world are overwhelming. This calls for new partnerships with the business sector and I now have the chance to help make this happen Yvo de Boer,

32 The Role of Business Business needs to be clear on what we can contribute and the support we need to deliver solutions Technology deployment frameworks Price signals for consumers and businesses Regulations and Standards R&D cooperation 32

33 WBCSD Work Program Focus Areas The Business Role Energy and Climate Projects - Water - Buildings - Forest Products - Cement - Electricity Utilities - Tires -Mobility - Mining Urban Infrastructure Sustainable Value Urban Chains Infrastructure Sustainable Value Chains - Eco Patent Commons - Maritime Initiatives Systems Solutions

34 Energy and Climate

35 Global Emission Scenarios Source: IEA. ETP

36 The importance of energy efficiency is growing Total(2030) = MT Efficiency= 57% SOURCE: IEA WEO

37 Climate Scorecard Countries within the Kyoto Protocol Kyoto target Russia 0% - 33% Germany - 15% - 21% UK - 15% - 17% France - 15% - 5% Italy - 15% + 7% Japan - 6% + 8% Canada - 6% + 26% Emission trend Countries outside the Kyoto Protocol USA + 16% Mexico + 42% Brazil + 47% India + 78% Emission trend China + 116% SOURCE: Allianz SE & WWF,

38 COP 15 Copenhagen Takeaways: Copenhagen saw the end of old ways of intergovernmental negotiations Climate change is elevated on national agendas NOT as an environmental concern, but as an energy, trade and development issue The Copenhagen Accord A non binding Letter of Intent But little clarity on how this will be implemented 38

39 The Copenhagen Accord Main elements: Committed limiting global warming to 2 C Encouraged pledges of cuts from developed countries and actions from developing countries Agreed to transparent reporting of actions Proposed new mechanisms to manage finance, technology and REDD+ Committed $ bln annually over next 10 years 39

40 Pledges by January 31,

41 Target Pledges and actions to 2020 Base year Purchases of emissions credits from other countries Comparison with emissions from Japan -25% 1990? -25% -30% EU (27) -20% 1990 Yes -20% -13% USA -17% 2005? -4% -17% China % carbon intensity India Brazil South Africa -25% carbon intensity % vs. BAU 2005? In 2020: -12% vs. BAU 2005? In 2020: -9-19% vs. BAU 2020? In 2020: 36-39% vs. BAU -34% vs. BAU 2020? In 2020: -34% vs. BAU 41

42 Stumbling Blocks in the international climate negotiations 1. Climate change is not a priority for all 2. Whose carbon is it? 3. What type of commitments are countries willing to accept? National sovereignty? 4. Support to developing countries? 5. Competition concerns; a level playing field? 6. Robustness of climate science and IPCC conclusions? 7. Domestic US legislation? 42

43 US & Climate Change All believe developing clean energy is a priority Majority supports EPA regulation of CO2 2010, Yale/George Mason University 43

44 Climate Change post-cop 15 Bottom-up country pledges for action with bilateral/regional agreements A global umbrella agreement: Copenhagen Accord elements System for a global carbon market, broader than CDM Recognition of sectoral approaches Transformation of the energy system Agriculture & land-use changes in focus The energy, water & food challenge 44

45 Sectoral approaches 45

46 Sectoral Approaches A way to address competition concerns? WBCSD: Partnerships: Cement - Steel Buildings - Aluminum Forest Products - ICT Electricity Utilities IEA Technology Roadmaps 17 technologies/ industry sectors 46

47 Cement Sustainability Initiative 21 major cement producers with operations in more than 100 countries 40% of global production Leading the way on industry sectoral approaches Actions: CO 2 measuring and reporting CDM methodology Co-Chairs: 47

48 CSI/ IEA Technology Roadmap Outlines existing and potential technologies, and how they may help the industry support a halving of global CO ₂ emissions WBCSD 2010 Liaison Delegate Meeting 48

49 Electricity Utilities Power sector crucial to climate change Trilogy of policy reports Power to Change: A business contribution to a low-carbon electricity future Roadmap of sector specific policy recommendations Next phase: delivering input into the IEA, e.g. the new IEA Carbon and Electricity Report (IEA-CER) Exploring smart technologies Co-Chairs: 49

50 Energy Efficiency in Buildings (EEB) Buildings represent 50 % of world energy use Energy efficiency is huge business opportunity both for new buildings as well as refurbishing of existing ones Four year project: Bottom-up analysis of 6 sub-markets Report: Transforming the Market (April 2009) Cutting building emissions by 50% globally by 2050 is possible at an average abatement cost of 25USD/tCO2 (PIIE, 2009) Co-Chairs: 50

51 WBCSD Roles on Climate Change Providing business perspectives on markets, finance and technologies Glion Dialogues Cooperation with IEA, World Bank Support and input to the negotiations Technology, REDD+, sectoral approaches Advisory roles to governments China, US, Germany EU: contract to develop proposal for a formal business role in climate negotiations Provide tools for measurement and reporting 51

52 WRI / WBCSD GHG Protocol 10+ year collaboration with WRI Mission to develop internationally accepted methodologies for measuring and reporting GHG emissions Corporate Standard released in has become most widely used international standard 2 new Standards will be launched by end 2010 Scope 3 (supply chain) and Product Life Cycle Currently being road-tested by 70+ companies 52

53 WBCSD Strategy Milestone on the pathway to a sustainable world in 2050 A lot of actions/changes must be initiated for the world to be on a sustainable trajectory The Turbulent Teens 53

54 Strategy 2020: Vision Vision: Everybody living well, within the limits of the planet. Solutions based on strong and efficient business involvement and partnerships with other actors in society 54

55 WBCSD Work Program Focus Areas The Business Role Energy and Climate Projects - Water - Buildings - Forest Products - Cement - Electricity Utilities - Tires -Mobility - Mining Urban Infrastructure Sustainable Value Urban Chains Infrastructure Sustainable Value Chains - Eco Patent Commons - Maritime Initiatives Systems Solutions

56 WBCSD Strategy: Key Issue I System Solutions Urban Infrastructure Buildings, transport, energy, water, waste Sustainable Value Chains Water, Energy, Climate & Food Smart Solutions based on ICT Electricity grids, mobility, logistics, appliances, buildings 56

57 WBCSD Strategy 2020: Key Issue II Sustainable consumption Efficiency & technology alone will not be enough Lifestyles/ demand-side management SUSTAINABLE VALUE CHAIN SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION Raw Material Acquisition Production Distribution & Retail Use End of Life 57

58 WBCSD Strategy 2020: Key Issue III Talent & Skills: People matter The transition to sustainability requires more skilled human resources Competitive advantage through knowledge and people

59 WBCSD Strategy 2020: Key Issue IV The Financial sector The role of the financial sector? Societal service vs. Platform for profit maximization Measurements of success and risk in the economy? Societal returns & risks vs. Company financial returns & risks 59

60 A World in Transition to Sustainability Need to create better functioning cooperation between governments and business A lot of diplomacy needed to bring collective and coherent messages from business 60

61 A World in Transition to Sustainability The future is going to be resource and carbon constrained Business has a major role to play as a solution provider to the transformation to a sustainable future Business cannot succeed in a society that fails 61

62 62