The need of mineral resources for energy production

Transcription

1 The need of mineral resources for energy production Olivier Vidal, CNRS, Isterre Eurogia 12/2014

2 Million tons Population Energy Base metals years

3 In addition to base metals, the high-tech industries use a variety of «rare metals» in increasing quantities Ga, In, Se B, Nd, Dy Ga Co, Ga, In, Nb, Ta,W, PGE, REE, Cu, Ni, Pb, Bi, Li, Ag, Au

4 Consequences An increasing demand in fossil fuels (need of energy to produce metals) 21 % of the global energy consumed by the industry in 2011 was used for the production of steel + cement (international energy outlook 2013) «Energy consumption and intensity in mining and mineral processing is rising at around 6% per annum» (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics ) 1 tco 2 is generated for 1t of produced concrete (Natesan et al., 2003) => 5% of worldwide man-made emissions of this gas about 2 t CO 2 are generated for 1 t of produced steel. and potential consequences on our ability to shift toward low-carbon energies (need of metals to produce energy)

5 Evolution of hydro, solar and wind energy production for the next 40 years The available global energy scenarios rely on a strong increase in the share of solar and wind energy 17% 25 to 50% 100% of global electricity generation (about 40% of global E demand)

6 Solar and wind sources are diluted and require large facilities Steel intensity (t/mw capacity) 250 Wind Latest wind turbine generation: 6 Mw, basement at 60 m depth, rotor > 150 m, >1500 t of steel Permanent magnet with 1 t REE (Nd, Dy, Sm, Gd, or Pr) Nuclear 20 Hydro of such wind turbines are necessary to produce the same energy (Wh) as a 1300 MW nuclear plan

7 steel (t/mw) Material intensity of fossil and renewable energy production facilities Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Wind land Wind offshore PV roof PV fixed PV tracker CSP

8 Materials requirements for wind and solar energy production facilities PV from PH 2002 W 2010 Vidal et al., 2013 (Nature geoscience) PH 2002 PH 2002 In 2050, the cumulative amount of concrete, steel, Al, Cu and glass sequestered in wind and solar facilities will be 2 to 8 times the 2010 world production

9 To meet this demand, the base metals production will have to be boosted to 0.2-2% each of the next 35 years Should we worry? 0.2-2%/year is lower than the present growth rates (about 5%)

10 To meet this demand, the base metals production will have to be boosted to 0.2-2% each of the next 35 years Should we worry? 0.2-2%/year is lower than the present growth rates (about 5%) but 5%/year growth rate means doubling the production every 15 years - hardly sustainable over 40 years.

11 The base metals production will will have to be boosted to % Should we worry? 0.2-2% is much lower than the present growth rates (about 5%) Until 2050, the increase in Al production needed to build the solar and wind facilities will be the same as that driven by all industrial sectors between 1970 and 2000

12 Al Fe Cu Until 2050, the increase in Al, Cu, Fe production needed to build the solar and wind facilities will be similar to that driven by all industrial sectors between 1970 and 2000

13 The situation is worse for mineral commodities used by the «high tech» Until 2030, the yearly global demand in Ga, In, Se, Te, Dy, Nd, Pr and Tb will be boosted to 10 to 230% of the 2010 world supply (Öhrlund, 2011) Yearly global metal demand from photovoltaic cells and permanent magnet wind turbines under the most optimistic deployment scenarios

14 These estimates are probably optimistic Material intensive technologies are developing

15 copper (t/mw) These estimates are probably optimistic Material intensive technologies are developing 2) Some material requirements for systems are omitted in the components analyses Falconer 2009 (HV connection) Connected wind turbine farm Wind turbine component Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal W land W sea PV roof PV fixed PV tracker CSP

16 These estimates are probably optimistic Material intensive technologies are developing 2) Some material requirements for systems are omitted in the components analyses 3) We focused on some elements of a restricted part of the material energy pathway Zepf et al. (2014)

17 These estimates are probably optimistic Material intensive technologies are developing 2) Some material requirements for systems are omitted in the components analyses 3) Additional needs for storage and distribution + transport For a storage capacity = 10% of the production capacity -> 0.5 to 2Mt Cu km of new HV network until > 1 to 3 Mt Cu (Ten Year Network Development Plan) 100 millions hybrid and electric vehicles in > 3 Mt Cu => 175 kt Nd Sum: about 10 Mt to be added to the 20 Mt estimated for the renewable energy production facilities

18 These estimates are probably optimistic Material intensive technologies are developing 2) Some material requirements for systems are omitted in the components analyses 3) Additional needs for storage and distribution + transport 4) In other energy saving applications

19 What about recycling? After 30 years (life time of the infrastructures of production) and not for all chemical elements Reuse stats: Global postconsumer recycling rates (UN Environment Program 2011) Should we worry? YES The increase in the complexity of metal assemblages in generic products (Van Schalk and Reuter, 2012; adapted from Achzel and Reller)

20 Can we make it? The optimist : No problem in any 30-year period, mankind has consumed as much metal as during all previous history, and improvements in technology or the discovery of new deep seated on-shore and off-shore resources will allow the trend to continue.

21 Can we make it? The optimist : No problem in any 30-year period, mankind has consumed as much metal as during all previous history, and improvements in technology or the discovery of new deep seated on-shore and off-shore resources will allow the trend to continue. The pessimist: Doubling the metal production every 20 years has been possible in the past, but as mines become more remote and metal grades decline, and above all increasing energy demands, will put a limit to further expansion and the transition to a carbon-free society.

22 As metal grades decline, the energy of extraction, processing and separation increases rapidly Cu Marsden J.O Energy Efficiency & Copper Hydrometallurgy - Presentation - Freeport - McMoran Copper & Gold - (Phoenix, Arizona, USA) - Available online:

23 Can we make it? The optimist : No problem in any 30-year period, mankind has consumed as much metal as during all previous history, and improvements in technology or the discovery of new deep seated on-shore and off-shore resources will allow the trend to continue. The pessimist: What has been possible in the past might become difficult in the future: As mines become more remote and metal grades decline, the increasing cost of mining, and above all increasing energy demands, will put a limit to further expansion and the transition to a carbon-free society. The pragmatic: we must ensure that the availability of raw materials does not become an obstacle to the energy transition and social development and thus estimate our reserves Can we estimate our reserves?

24 Cumulated production Estimation of reserves with a «Hubbert s approach» Logistic curve of production Cu Reserves are estimated from the integration of the production curve: sigmoid with an asymptote corresponding to the reserve (with available technologies and no discovery) Time

25 Estimating our reserves with a «logistic approach» is highly uncertain because the magnitude of production is not only controlled by the accessibility to ore deposits.

26 Depth Increasing the reserves with time in is not indicative of abundance Ore grade volume Reserve Energie Cost, pollution

27 Depth Increasing the reserves with time is not indicative of abundance Ore grade volume Estimation of energy consumption, environmental impacts followed by social opposition is more important than estimating reserves Reserve Energie Cost, pollution

28 egration of data: Dynamic Modeling (prey-predato Recycling Capital II Lost EOL Products made of II Energy II Technology Reserves I Products made of I Energy I Demand Ore grade Primary extraction Capital I Technology Demand

29 Preliminary results I Fluxes Stocks Total Cu (I + II + lost + EOL)? Total prod. Secondary prod. Cu in EOL Lost Cu Recycled Cu Primary prod. Primary Cu

30 Recycling will be fed by EOL products (scrap). We should keep them at home instead of exporting them abroad! scrap By not recycling yet but rather simply tracking copper to ensure that sinks and reservoirs are known, energy use can be minimised in the future

31 Preliminary results II Energy Capital Primary prod. Secondary prod. Primary prod. Total prod. Secondary prod. (Capital) 2010 = 10-50*(Capital) 1900 (?) (GDP) 2010 = 20*(GDP) 1900

32 Conclusion Mineral resources are vital for our quality of life and for the industry. Increasing the production of mineral commodities is probably possible, but in view of the present levels of production, business as usual is no longer an option. Longterm solutions have to be found (recycling, substitution). These solutions should go beyond the sole techno-economic optimum, reduce energy requirements and mitigate pollution in all segments of the supply chain. Understanding and modelling the complex and coupled issues of metal supply require multi-disciplinary approaches.

33 Thanks for your attention!!!

34 The French scenarios Negawatt, «sortir du nucléaire» and «Grenelle de l environnement» lead to the same conclusions for steel but not for concrete (?)

35

36 Uncertainty in energy intensity E in /E out 3 to 50%!!! Souce: Sullivan et al. (2010): Life-Cycle Analysis Results of Geothermal Systems in Comparison to Other Power Systems. Argonne National Laboratory GHG emission 7 to 140 g eq CO2/Wh!!

37 Uncertainty in energy intensity 20 or 50 MJ/kg? Acier inox: entre 70 et 300 MJ/kg

38 Conclusions The shift to renewable energy will need substantial amounts of minerals, metals and fossil energy. The lifetime of solar and wind facilities is about 30 years, during which recycling won t be possible, and primary resources will have to be extracted to build the infrastructures of clean energy A precise and comprehensive evaluation of the energy and RM requirement in the energy scenarios remains to be done and is necessary A clear definition of the criteria to be minimized (e.g. CO 2 generation, cost of electricity, type of energy generation, national dependency, etc) is also necessary Avoid developing unsustainable technologies (and gadgets) decoupled from the reality of raw materials supply, Optimize the ratio efficiency/materials requirement of renewable energy infrastructures and their design to facilitate recycling, Quantify the impact of novel technologies prior to their large scale industrial implementation Find new resources and improve the efficiency of metal extraction and refining

39 Concrete (t/mw) Al (t/mw) 8000 Cu (t/mw) glass (t/mw) Hydropower power clear Nuclear Gas Coal Wind land Wind PV roof PV fixed PV tracker CSP Gas Coal d land shore V roof fixed acker CSP average Werner Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Wind land Wind offshore PV roof PV fixed PV tracker CSP ower clear Gas Coal land hore roof fixed cker CSP Protermosolar (2010)

40 copper (t/mw) Falconer 2009 (HV connection) Herwitch et al (ecoinvent) Hydropower Hydropower Nuclear Nuclear Gas Gas Coal Coal W land land W sea sea PV PV roof roof PV PV fixed fixed PV PV tracker tracker CSP CSP

41 Mineral ressources are also needed to build the infrastructure of energy storage and distribution Energy storage: necessary to phase energy demand and production 100 millions vehicles in 2030, 30 kg Cu /vehicle => 3 Mt Cu 1 kg Nd /vehicle, => 5 kt Nd/year (25% production 2010)

42 Mineral ressources are also needed to build the infrastructure of energy storage and distribution Energy distributon: new HV network to connect the infratstructures of production km of new HV network 1 to 2 Mt Cu for the European network (cabling only))

43 When summing up all the needs Potentially 30 Mt of Cu for the renewable energy sector until 2035 almost 2 years of annual production, which comes in addition to the use by other industrial sectors The situation is much worse for «rare elements» Öhrlund, I. (2011): Between 2010 and 2030, the yearly global demand in Ga, In, Se, Te, Dy, Nd, Pr et Tb for solar and wind facilities could be boosted to 10 to 230% of the 2010 world supply» What about recycling?

44 4 % 3000 Mt 300 GJ/t 300 GJ/t energie pour 1 Mt Energy to produce 1 t Cu 2 % 1500 Mt 150 GJ/t 150 GJ/t 0 % 0 Mt Time (Year) Ore grade % Reserve Cu Mt 0 GJ/t 0 GJ/t Time (Year) Energie pour 1 Mt Cu primaire : Current Energie pour 1 Mt Cu secondaire : Current GJ/t GJ/t

45 Two different issues 1) Base metal, glass and construction minerals 1) High-tech or rare or critical mineral commodities

46 The classical view Base metals, glass and concrete. Large volumes to be produced, but large reserves High recycling potential High-tech metals Limited possibilities of recycling yet Poor knowledge of resources/reserves Production limited to few countries

47 The classical view Base metals, glass and concrete. Large volumes to be produced, but large reserves High recycling potential High-tech metals Limited possibilities of recycling yet Poor knowledge of resources/reserves Production limited to few countries Not critical Short to middle terme vision (industry) Critical

48 However, Base metals, glass and concrete Large reserves and resources but the concentrated and easily accessible ores are declining High recycling potential (after 2050) No possible substitution Major impact in terms of energy needs and GHG emission Not? Critical High-tech metals Limited possibilities of recycling yet Poor knowledge of resources/reserves Production limited to few countries Technology-dependant Critical Not only a matter of feasibility, but also of energy intensity, environmental and social impact of production

49 Can we make it? the EU is dependent on the importation of most metals, as its domestic production is limited to about 3% of world production. +Borates +Chromium +Coaking coal +Fluorspar +Lithium +Phosphate Rock +Silicon Metal (2014)

50 Doubling the metal production every years has been possible in the past, but as mines become more remote and metal grades decline, the increasing cost of mining and increasing energy demands increase as well. Energy CO2

51

52 It is not surprising that reserves increase with time (effect of lowering head grade) ore grade volume reserves As long as the ENERGIE needs and POLLUTION are not considered as limiting factors, the reserves and life expectencies have little meaning Giurco et al. (2010) Energie cost, pollution

53 The PRICE is a good proxy

54 The efficiencies, resource production and capital are constrained by historical data dr/dt= R(t)*(-β *C(t)) R : Ressource stock, β: efficiency of resource extraction 10 6 Cu dc/dt = C(t)*(γ* R(t) δ) C: Capital stock, γ: efficiency of resource -> capital transformation, δ : Capital depreciation (Capital) 2010 = 50*(Capital) 1900 (?) (GDP) 2010 = 20*(GDP) 1900 (Population) 2010 = 5*(Population) 1900

55 These estimates are probably optimistic 1) Developing technologies

56 copper (t/mw) 2) Additional needs are overlooked in material intensity studies of components (system analyses have to be done) Falconer 2009 (HV connection) Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal W land W sea PV roof PV fixed PV tracker CSP

57 Prey-predator modelling death rate dsheep/dt= sheep(t)*(birth rate - wolves(t)*predation rate) dwolves/dt= wolves(t)*(sheep(t)*delta - death rate) birth rate

58 Prey-predator modelling Resource «Capital» (true capital, labour, infrastructure, energy, etc) death rate dsheep/dt= sheep(t)*(birth rate - wolves(t)*predation rate) dwolves/dt= wolves(t)*(sheep(t)*delta - death rate) birth rate

59 Recycling Capital II Ore grade-reservestime relationships Lost EOL Products made of II Energy II Reserves I Capital I Products made of I Energy I Technology Ore grade Demand Primary extraction Ressourcecapital10 Model o. vidal/11/2014 Initial reserves of Cu estimated from 1) a fit of of historical production ( ) and 2) from the historical data of the grade of mined ore ( )

60 Preliminary results I Fluxes Stocks Total Cu (I + II + lost + EOL)? Total prod. Secondary prod. Primary prod. Recycled Cu Lost Cu Cu in EOL Primary Cu

61 Can we make it? The EU is dependent on the importation of most metals, as its domestic production is limited to about 3% of the world production. Critical raw % Critical raw % material Supply material Supply Antimony 93% Magnesite 86% Beryllium 99% Magnesium 96% UE dependency to importation. In red: mineral commodities for which China is the main producer. Sources (2009) : USGS, BRGM, PGI, WMD Borates 88% Natural Graphite 93% Chromium 88% Niobium 99% Cobalt 82% PGMs 93% Coking Coal 94% Phosphate Rock 66% Fluorspar 84% REE (Heavy) 100% Gallium 90% REE (Light) 100% Germanium 94% Silicon Metal 79% Indium 81% Tungsten 91% Lithium 83% Total 90%

62 The Chinese dragon is hungry Prises de participations chinoises dans l industrie minérale mondiale (D après Van der Wath, Bateman Beijing Axis, «China and Africa: A Global Natural Resources Alliance? Situation en 2004 Situation en début 2009 Situation en début 2010

63 Doubling the metal production every years has been possible in the past, but as mines become more remote and metal grades decline, the increasing cost of mining and increasing energy demands increase as well. the optimist: yes, but the energetic efficiency of the mining and mineral industries improved significantly during the last decades 0.65% 2.25% Marsden J.O Energy Efficiency & Copper Hydrometallurgy - Presentation - Freeport - McMoran Copper & Gold - (Phoenix, Arizona, USA) - Available online:

64 Recycling Capital II Lost EOL Goods made of II Energy II Demand Reserves I Goods made of I Energy I Economic model Technology Ore grade Capital I Technology Demand Primary extraction Technologic model Political and social issues, policy and regulation Environmental impacts