Nuclear s Contribution to a 2050 Low Carbon Energy System

Transcription

1 Nuclear s Contribution to a 2050 Low Carbon Energy System Presentation To The All Party Parliamentary Nuclear Energy Group 19 th October 2015 Mike Middleton Energy Technologies Institute 2015 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This 2015 information Energy is given Technologies in good faith based Institute upon the latest LLP information - Subject available to to notes Energy on Technologies page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.

2 Introduction to the ETI organisation The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) is a public-private partnership between global industries and UK Government ETI members Delivering... Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy Shared risk ETI programme associate.

3 What does the ETI do? System level strategic planning Technology development & demonstration Delivering knowledge & innovation

4 Typical ESME Outputs Energy System Modelling Environment

5 Net UK CO 2 Emissions Typical ETI Transition Scenario Mt CO 2 /year (Historic) International Aviation & Shipping Transport Sector Buildings Sector Power Sector Industry Sector Biocredits Process & other CO2 Notes: Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors Biocredits includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4

6 Installed Electrical Generation Capacity Typical Scenario GW DB v3.4 / Optimiser v (Historic) Geothermal Plant Wave Power Tidal Stream Hydro Power Micro Solar PV Large Scale Ground Mounted Solar PV Onshore Wind Offshore Wind H2 Turbine Anaerobic Digestion CHP Plant Energy from Waste IGCC Biomass with CCS Biomass Fired Generation Nuclear CCGT with CCS CCGT IGCC Coal with CCS PC Coal Gas Macro CHP Oil Fired Generation Interconnectors Notes: Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW) Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup

7 Can Small Nuclear Build A Niche Within The UK Energy System? For SMRs to be deployed in UK: technology development to be completed range of approvals and consents to be secured sufficient public acceptance of technology deployment at expected locations against either knowledge or ignorance of alternatives deployment economically attractive to o reactor vendors o utilities and investors o consumers & taxpayers Small Nuclear Large Nuclear FID Final Investment Decision Realistic objective for SMRs to be economically attractive to all stakeholders

8 Niche For Small Nuclear In The UK? Single Revenue Stream Multiple Revenue Streams Containment structure 1. Baseload Electricity Containment structure 1. Baseload Electricity 2. Variable Electricity To Aid Grid Balancing Control rods Steam Generator Generator Control rods Steam Generator Generator Turbine Turbine Reactor vessel Condenser Waste Heat Rejected To The Environment Reactor vessel Condenser 3. Heat Recovery To Energise District Heating Systems

9 Decarbonising Heat Is Challenging Heat demand variability in 2010 Unattractive to electrify it all Heat Electricity Design point for a GB heat delivery system Heat / Electricity (GW) Heat demand Electricity demand Design point for a GB electricity delivery system 0 Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10 GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic buildings R. Sansom, Imperial College

10 ETI Projects Delivered Power Plant Siting Study (PPSS) Explore UK capacity for new nuclear based on siting constraints Consider competition for development sites between nuclear and thermal with CCS Undertake a range of related sensitivity studies Identify potential capacity for small nuclear based on existing constraints and using sites unsuitable for large nuclear Project schedule June 2014 to Aug 2015 Delivered by Atkins for ETI following competitive open procurement process System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies (ANT) Develop a high level functional requirement specification for a black box power plant for baseload electricity heat to energise district heating systems, and further flexible electricity to aid grid balancing Develop high level business case with development costs, unit costs and unit revenues necessary for deployment to be attractive to utilities and investors Project schedule August 2014 to Aug 2015 Delivered by Mott MacDonald for ETI following competitive open procurement process Outputs to be used in ETI scenario analysis to determine attractiveness of such an SMR black box power plant to the UK low carbon energy system

11 Data From The ETI Power Plant Siting Study Capacity constraints applied in ESME

12 Data Applied Within ESME From ANT Project Project data used to create ESME data file for SMRs: CAPEX: Base case 4500/kW for N th Of A Kind Uplift for CHP: 200/kWe OPEX: 105/kWe (by 2050) First Operations Date: Base Case 2030 Construction Period: 3yrs Build Out Rate: (from first operations) 400MWe/yr for 10 years, then 1.2 GWe/yr Regional site capacity: 21 GWe total distributed across England and Wales Power downrate during CHP heat take off: 20% The ANT project has been independent of reactor vendors the report has been peer reviewed There are uncertainties regarding the future costs and timescales for UK SMR deployment

13 Updated ESME Baseline Capacity with 35 GWe Large Gen III+ with SMRs available SMR deployment capacity influenced by: Speed to first UK SMR operations Capital cost ( /kwe) 2050 Nuclear Capacity 1 GWe legacy (SZB) 35 GWe Gen III+ 16 GWe CHP SMRs

14 The Case For CHP SMRs

15 Impact On Cost Of System Transition - SMRs Abatement Cost Energy system costs would be incurred even if no carbon targets Abatement cost is additional cost for low-carbon solution to given set of demands ESMEv3.4 Baseline (with District Heating available but without SMRs deployed) Annual abatement cost by Bn/yr Equivalent to 1.55% of GDP Key messages from table below: RHS reduction in system cost where CHP SMRs energise District Heat networks LHS significantly higher system cost without District Heating Scenario UK SMR first plant starting operations in 2030 with CAPEX of 4500/kWe Annual Cost Of Abatement in 2050 ( bn/year) and as % of GDP Approach to decarbonising heat WITHOUT District Heating WITH District Heating Abatement Cost/year 64.7 Bn 54.6 Bn Abatement as % of GDP 1.72% 1.45%

16 ETI s Nuclear Insights - Key Messages

17 Registered Office Energy Technologies Institute Holywell Building Holywell Park Loughborough LE11 3UZ For all general enquiries telephone the ETI on For more information about the ETI visit For the latest ETI news and announcements The ETI can also be followed on