Carbon, Poverty and the Energy Transition Dilemma

Transcription

1 PESA September, 218 Tinker 218 Carbon, Poverty and the Energy Transition Dilemma Scott W. Tinker

2 Tinker 218 The Western Narrative Renewables and batteries are clean and good Fossil energy and nuclear are dirty and bad

3 Tinker 218 The Transition Dilemma Most people do not know how electricity is made or where gasoline comes from. But they think they do!

4 Outline Tinker 218 Energy Carbon Poverty Radical Middle

5 Energy Security Tinker 218 Affordable Cost: per unit of energy Price Volatility: stable or fluctuating Available Reliable Sustainable Infrastructure: cost to build the plant Access: substantial resources Intermittent: source consistent or variable Safe: natural/human causes Clean: air and atmospheric emissions Dense: energy per area, weight and volume Dry: fresh water use/risk

6 The Global Energy Mix Tinker Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent Hydro Nuclear Renew Petroleum % Coal Nat Gas 3135 Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

7 Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent The Global Energy Mix Tinker Hydro Nuclear Coal Renew Petroleum % Nat Gas Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

8 Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent Nuclear Coal Hydro Renew Nat Gas 881 Petroleum Global Energy Demand Tinker Global Population Each color on the map represents ~ 1 billion people Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

9 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Global Energy Mix Global Energy Consumption (MTOE) Tinker Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

10 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, Global Energy Mix Global Energy Consumption (MTOE) The world could be 1% wind, wave and solar by 23, if just for political will Tinker 218 4, 2, Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

11 World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) 28, Electricity Generation By Region World electricity generation 1 from 1971 to 215 by region (TWh) Tinker , 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 2 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. QAe6822

12 World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) 28, 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, Electricity Generation by Source World electricity generation 1 from 1971 to 215 by source (TWh) Tinker 218 Non-hydro renewables and waste 2 Hydro Nuclear Fossil thermal 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels, waste, heat and other Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6811

13 World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) 28, 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, Electricity Generation by Source World electricity generation 1 from 1971 to 215 by source (TWh) Tinker 218 Non-hydro renewables and waste 2 Hydro Nuclear Fossil thermal 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels, waste, heat and other Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6811

14 3 Nuclear Electricity Production World nuclear electricity production from 1971 to 215 by region (TWh) Tinker Other 2 China Non-OECD Asia 1 Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia OECD Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. 2. Other includes Africa, Non-OECD Americas and the Middle East. QAe6817

15 World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) 28, 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, Electricity Generation by Source World electricity generation 1 from 1971 to 215 by source (TWh) Tinker 218 Non-hydro renewables and waste 2 Hydro Nuclear Fossil thermal 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels, waste, heat and other Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6811

16 Hydro Electricity Production Tinker World hydro electricity production 1 from 1971 to 215 by region (TWh) Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Includes electricity production from pumped storage. 2. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 2 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD QAe6819

17 World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) 28, 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, Electricity Generation by Source World electricity generation 1 from 1971 to 215 by source (TWh) Tinker 218 Non-hydro renewables and waste 2 Hydro Nuclear Fossil thermal 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels, waste, heat and other Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6811

18 Wind Electricity Production Tinker 218 World wind electricity production from 25 to 215 by region (TWh) Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 1 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD QAe682

19 World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) Electricity Generation by Source Tinker , 24, 2, 16, Non-hydro renewables and waste 2 Hydro 12, Nuclear Fossil thermal 8, 4, 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels, waste, heat and other Wind Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6811

20 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. Wind Electricity Production Growth in U.S. Wind Generation Million Kwh World wind electricity production from 25 to 215 by region (TWh) 45, 9 4, 8 35, 7 3, 6 25, 5 2, 4 Iowa 15, 1, 3 5, 2 Illinois Tinker 216 Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 1 China California Oklahoma Kansas Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD Texas QAe5771 QAe682

21 Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Production Tinker World solar PV electricity production from 25 to 215 by region (TWh) Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 1 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. OECD QAe6821

22 Average Module Price $ / watt Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Production United States Solar photovoltaics Source: Economist, Solar Energy Industries Association Tinker QAe5833 Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. QAe6821

23 World electricity generation 1 by fuel (TWh) Electricity Generation by Source Tinker , 24, 2, 16, Non-hydro renewables and waste 2 Hydro 12, Nuclear Fossil thermal 8, 4, 1. Excludes electricity generation from pumped storage. 2. Includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, biofuels, waste, heat and other Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6811

24 Population and Energy ~45% Tinker 218 Asia 12 The world 1 could be 1% Global Population (B) wind, wave and solar by 23, if just for political will Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

25 Population and Energy ~45% Tinker Asia Global Population (B) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

26 Population and Energy ~45% Tinker Asia Global Population (B) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

27 Population and Energy ~45% Tinker Asia Global Population (B) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

28 Population and Energy ~45% Tinker 218 Are there affordable, available, reliable and sustainable: 12 fossil energy and nuclear resources to meet this demand? 1 renewable energy resources to meet this demand? ~15, Tcf (5X to date) ~2,6 Bbo (2X to date) Asia Global Population (B) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

29 Production cost (28 $/Mbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) 15, Tcf Shale Sour Resources (Tcf) Hydrates Tinker 218 QAe98

30 Tinker 218 Production cost (28 $/Mmbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Shale Sour ~ 3 year total resource Resources (Tcf) Hydrates QAe98

31 Tinker 218 Production cost (28 $/Mmbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Shale Sour Resources (Tcf) Hydrates QAe98

32 Tinker 218 Production cost (28 $/Mmbtu) Produced Conventional Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tight 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 3, Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption 115 Tcfy Shale Sour Resources (Tcf) Hydrates QAe98

33 Produced Conventional Production cost (28 $/Mbtu) Coal Bed Methane Arctic Deep Water 15 1 Natural Gas Cost of Supply Resources v. Cost Tinker 218 Technology, 3, 6, 9, 12, Policy 15, 18, and 21, 24, Demand 27, 3, Resources (Tcf) Hydrates Sour Reserves Tight and Shale production are a 5 Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Global Consumption Tcfy The Global Resource is Vast function ~ of 3 year Price, total resource Cost, QAe98

34 Production cost (28 $) Oil Cost of Supply Resources and Cost Tinker Arctic 2,6 Bbo EOR Deepwater and ultra-deepwater CO 2 EOR Other conventional oil Heavy oil & bitumen Oil shales Shale oil Gas to liquids Coal to liquids 2 Produced MENA , Modified from: IEA World Energy Outlook (29) Resources (billion barrels)

35 Tinker 218 Bakken/Three Forks Marcellus Barnett Permian Basin Permian in progress Basin Fayetteville Haynesville Eagle Ford For presentation or publication, reference: Bureau of Economic Geology Shale Resource and Production Project

36 Gas Tcf Original In-Place Oil Bakken/Three Forks Bbbl Tech. Recoverable 7 27 Production to date 7 5 ~18, ~1, Bakken/Three Forks Horizontal wells to date ~75,~ Future wells (base case) ~5, ~5, Gas Marcellus Marcellus Oil Resourcein-Place ~16,5 TRR Produced to-date 218 Tinker,Tinker 215 Barnett Barnett ~63, ~1,5 ~2, ~6,5 Fayetteville Fayetteville ~13, Permian Basin Permian Basin in progress Haynesville Haynesville Eagle Ford ~16,5 ~9, Eagle Ford ~6, ~35, For presentation or publication, reference: Bureau of Economic Geology Shale Resource and Production Project

37 Gas Tcf Original In-Place Oil Bakken/Three Forks Bbbl Tech. Recoverable 7 27 Production to date Tinker,Tinker 215 ~18, ~1, Horizontal wells to date ~75,~ Future wells (base case) ~5, ~5, Gas Marcellus Oil Resourcein-Place TRR Produced to-date Barnett ~16,5 ~63, ~1,5 ~2, ~6,5 Fayetteville ~13, Permian Basin in progress Haynesville Eagle Ford ~16,5 ~9, ~6, ~35, For presentation or publication, reference: Bureau of Economic Geology Shale Resource and Production Project

38 Gas Tcf Original In-Place Oil Bbbl Tech. Recoverable 7 27 Production to date 7 5 Horizontal wells to date ~75,~ Future wells (base case) ~5, ~5, Gas Bakken/Three Forks For presentation or publication, reference: Bureau of Economic Tinker 218 Geology Shale Resource and Production Project ~18, ~1, Recovery to Date 2% of the natural gas 1% of the oil Marcellus Oil Resourcein-Place TRR Produced to-date Barnett ~16,5 ~63, ~6,5 Fayetteville ~13, Haynesville Eagle Ford ~16,5 ~9, ~1,5 ~2, ~6, ~35,

39 MMbbl/d U.S. Crude Oil Production Rest of U.S. Federal Gulf of Mexico Permian Region Eagle Ford Region Bakken Region Tinker Mbod ~ 7% of U.S. Oil Production from Shale Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report regions, Petroleum Supply Monthly, Natural Gas Monthly 2 Shale QAe4665

40 Thousand barrels/year Annual US Oil Production Tinker years! From: James D. Hamilton, Working Paper 17759, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 212

41 Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 38% 16% 41% Global Energy Mix Global Energy Consumption Mix 95% 86% Tinker % 24% 29% % Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Biomass

42 Population and Energy Tinker Asia Global Population (B) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

43 Population and Energy Tinker Asia Global Population (B) Asia Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

44 Population and Energy ~45% Tinker Asia Global Population (B) Asia Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

45 Population and Energy Tinker Years Asia ~35% ~25% ~4% Global Population (B) Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216) Source: From the UN, as appeared in The Economist, August 23, 214

46 Natural Gas, Nuclear Global Primary Energy % 3% 1% % 25% 35% % 15% 5% 1.25 Wind, Solar, Hydro Coal, Oil, Biomass

47 Natural Gas, Nuclear Global Primary Energy.5 4% 4% 2% % 3% 1% % 25% 35% % 15% 5% 1.25 Wind, Solar, Hydro Coal, Oil, Biomass

48 Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) by Energy Source (Mtoe) Tinker 218 People s Rep. of China ~69% ~16% ~15% United States ~16% ~38% ~45% Coal 1 Oil India Natural gas Renewables Russian Federation Japan Other 2 1. In this graph peat and oil shale are aggregated with coal. 2. Other includes nuclear, electricity trade, heat, nonrenewable waste. 5 1, 1,5 2, 2,5 3, Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6815

49 Total Final Consumption by Sector (Mtoe) Tinker 218 People s Rep. of China United States India Russian Federation Japan Industry Transport Residential Other 1 Non-energy use 1. Other consumption includes commercial and public services, agriculture/forestry, fishing and non-specified. 5 1, 1,5 2, Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6816

50 Environmental Impact Coal, Oil, Natural Gas Tinker 218 Mining and Manufacturing Land, Water, Emissions Drilling and Completion: Land, Water Transportation: Pipelines, Trucks, Ships, Rail Refining and Petrochemicals: Emissions Combustion: Vehicle and Power Plant Emissions

51 Tinker 218 Is this a Shale Basin?

52 No, it s New York! Tinker 218

53 Tinker 218 The Western Narrative Fossil energy and nuclear are dirty and bad Renewables and batteries are clean and good

54 Environmental Impact Renewables and Batteries Tinker 218 Mining and Processing Land, Water, Emissions Manufacturing: Turbines, Panels, Batteries Production: Land for Farms Transmission: Electricity Disposal: Landfill

55 Energy Tinker 218 Key Points Fossil energy demand remains strong, and resources are vast Wind and solar are a small component of the mix, but growing quickly in some regions No form of energy, at scale, is without environmental impact

56 Outline Tinker 218 Energy Carbon Poverty Radical Middle

57 Yogi Tinker 218 In theory there ain t no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.

58 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) Tinker Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

59 16, 4, 35, 14, 3, 12, 25, 1, 2, 8, 15, 6, 1, 4, 5, 2, CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) Tinker Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Asia Pacific Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Africa Total S. & Cent. America Total Middle East Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

60 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) ~16/34 GT Import Products Tinker 216 Export CO Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Asia Pacific Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

61 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions (Million Tonnes) Don t blame Asia! They make products for the world. Tinker Total North America Total Europe & Eurasia Total Asia Pacific ~16/34 GT Total Africa Total S. & Cent. America Total Middle East Data: BP Statistical View of World Energy (216)

62 Electricity Use (212: Billion KwH) Tinker 218 Data Center Networks Powering Devices Manufacturing QAe5585 Source: Emerging Trends in Electricity Consumption for Consumer ICT, Peter Corcoran and Andres Andrae (213) and CIA World Factbook. China/Russia/Canada figures are from 214.

63 Baseload The Future Electricity Mix Tinker North America Quadrillion BTUs Europe Asia Pacific Electricity Generation by Fuel Renewables 4 4 Nuclear 2 Coal 2 2 Gas Oil ExxonMobil Corporation, 21, The outlook for energy: a view to 23: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

64 Percent of total Tinker 218 U.S. Electric Generation Shares (25-15) 1% 2% Nuclear 8% 8% Renewables 6% 18% Other Natural gas 4% Fracking! 21% 13% 32% 2% 51% Coal 34% % Source: EIA QAe4744

65 Percent of total Tinker 218 U.S. Electric Generation Shares (25-15) 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% 8% 18% Nuclear Renewables Other Natural gas ~ 2% CO 2 Reduction! 21% 13% 32% % of CO 2 2% 3% 2% 51% Coal 34% 68% % Source: EIA QAe4744

66 Quadrillion Btu 2 18 US Energy Mix Tinker Total Energy Consumed 6 Nuclear Oil 4 Natural Gas 2 Coal After Jim Sweeney, 215. Data: EIA, Monthly Energy Review Imports Fracking Wind & Solar Biofuels Hydro

67 Quadrillion Btu 2 US Energy Mix Tinker Growth.55% less than GDP 8 Quads Efficiency 1 8 Total Energy Consumed 6 Nuclear Oil 4 Natural Gas 2 Coal After Jim Sweeney, 215. Data: EIA, Monthly Energy Review Imports Fracking Wind & Solar Biofuels Hydro

68 The Future Electricity Mix Tinker North America Quadrillion BTUs Europe Asia Pacific Electricity Generation by Fuel Renewables 4 4 Nuclear 2 Coal 2 2 Oil Gas ExxonMobil Corporation, 21, The outlook for energy: a view to 23: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

69 Power generation (TWh) European Coal Generation Tinker Germany Poland Czech Italy Spain Netherlands UK Other *preliminary QAe5339

70 Power generation (TWh) European Natural Gas Power Generation Tinker Coal UK Italy Germany Spain Netherlands Other *preliminary QAe534

71 The Future Electricity Mix Tinker North America Quadrillion BTUs Europe Asia Pacific Electricity Generation by Fuel Renewables 4 4 Nuclear 2 Coal 2 2 Oil Gas ExxonMobil Corporation, 21, The outlook for energy: a view to 23: ExxonMobil report, 53 p.

72 Tonnes of coal equivalent, bn China Energy Consumption by Fuel Type Tinker 218 Coal Petroleum Hydro, nuclear, and wind power Natural gas Source: Economist, National Bureau of Statistics QAe5832

73 Coal Production Tinker World coal 1 production from 1971 to 216 by region (Mt) Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA 1. Includes steam coal, coking coal, lignite and recovered coal. 2. Non-OECD Asia excludes China. Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 2 China Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Middle East OECD QAe689

74 Actual Cost of Electricity Average national electricity prices (in 211 US cents/kwh) Data: average prices from 211 converted at mean exchange rate for that year Affordable Available Reliable Tinker India Canada Mexico China S. Africa France Nigeria Brazil USA Russia Sources: IEA, EIA, national electricity boards, OANDA, shrinkthatfootprint.com UK Japan Italy Australia Spain Germany Denmark

75 Actual Cost of Electricity Tinker 218 Affordable Available Reliable

76 Auto Sales Developing Nations Rolling 12-month (million) Tinker 218 India Brazil Mexico Russia Indonesia Thailand Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 217 QAe5762

77 Auto Sales Developed Nations Rolling 12-month (million) Recession ~ 27 MM Tinker 218 China USA EU28 Japan India Source: National car data, Macquarie Research, January 217 QAe5761

78 Annual sales (light plug-in electric vehicles) Global Annual Sales Light-Duty Plug-In Electric Vehicles ( ) Tinker 218 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, < 2% Canada Japan China Western Europe United States 1, Source: Argonne National Laboratory, United States Department of Energy QAe5893

79 Million Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts Tinker Bloomberg OPEC ExxonMobil EIA Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com; EIA, WEO, 217 QAe5779

80 Million Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts Tinker Bloomberg OPEC ExxonMobil EIA Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com; EIA, WEO, 217 QAe5779

81 Million Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts Tinker Bloomberg OPEC ExxonMobil EIA ,, Batteries in 12 yrs avg 1,,/yr. 2 ~1% of Global Vehicle Fleet Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com; EIA, WEO, 217 QAe5779

82 Million Cumulative Electric-Vehicle Forecasts Tinker Bloomberg OPEC ExxonMobil EIA ~1% of Global Vehicle Fleet 1 2,, Batteries in 24 yrs avg 5,,/yr Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Economist.com; EIA, WEO, 217 QAe5779

83 Electricity TFC by sector (Mtoe) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Total Final Consumption by Sector Electricity Tinker 218 Other 1 Transport Commercial and public services Residential Industry 1. Includes agriculture, fishing and non-specified other. Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe6813

84 Tinker 218 CO 2 Reduction Strategies Efficiency Fuel Substitution Carbon Capture and Sequestration Adaptation to Warming

85 Carbon Tinker 218 Key Points Renewables will grow, but not soon enough or large enough to reduce CO 2 emissions at scale Natural gas and nuclear can reduce CO 2 emissions at scale and in needed time frames Reduce methane emissions! Electric Vehicle growth will not mitigate the demand for liquid petroleum fuels

86 Outline Tinker 218 Energy Carbon Poverty Radical Middle

87 Billion people People Without Access to Electricity and Clean Cooking Facilities Tinker People without clean cooking access People without access to electricity Other developing Asia China Other developing Asia Southeast Asia India Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Energy Outlook, 217, EIA QAe687

88 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH /CAP Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living United States Developed 12 Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia Japan U.S. GDP > 2X 8 Developing 6 South Korea China Germany 4 Emerging Brazil Malaysia 2 Mexico Niger Ecuador India Ghana Haiti GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Undeveloped Source: World Bank Databank

89 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH /CAP Limited Access to Electricity Restricts Standard of Living United States Developed 12 1 Niger Brazil Undeveloped Russia Developing China Saudi Arabia 2.5 billion people Australia Ecuador South Korea Mexico Malaysia Japan Germany U.S. GDP > 2X India Ghana Haiti GDP/CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank

90 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality United States Russia Saudi Arabia Australia Switch Japan Niger 4.5 billion South Korea China Germany Brazil Malaysia Mexico Ecuador India Ghana Haiti GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

91 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality United States 12 Australia 1 8 Russia Saudi Arabia Japan Niger Brazil China Switch On 2.5 billion Ecuador South Korea Mexico Malaysia Germany India Ghana Haiti GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

92 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality Niger Australia Saudi Arabia Russia United States Switch Japan On 2.5 billion South Korea China Germany Brazil Malaysia Mexico Ecuador India Ghana Haiti GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ Source: World Bank Databank 199 Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

93 Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality It s Time to Educate & Power the People ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 United States Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia billion South Korea China 4 Brazil Niger 3 billion India 1 Ghana Haiti Germany Malaysia Switch On 2 Switch Japan Ecuador Mexico GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ 5 6 Source: World Bank Databank Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

94 Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality It s Time to Educate & Power the People ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 United States Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia billion South Korea China 4 Brazil Niger 3 billion India 1 Ghana Haiti Germany Malaysia Switch On 2 Switch Japan Ecuador Mexico GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ 5 6 Source: World Bank Databank Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

95 Limited Access to Electricity Propagates Inequality It s Time to Educate & Power the People ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION, KWH PER CAPITA 16 United States Australia 1 Russia Saudi Arabia billion South Korea China 4 Brazil Switch On 2 Niger 3 billion India 1 Ghana Haiti Switch Japan Germany Malaysia Mexico Ecuador GDP PER CAPITA, PPP CURRENT INTERNATIONAL $ 5 6 Source: World Bank Databank Photo Tinker, Ecuador,

96 Electrification rate 213, % Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population Africa Asia Latin America * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 a day poverty line Purchasing power parity Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 Electricity and Poverty Brazil Electricity Vietnam China Cameroon Kenya Tanzania Uganda India Bangladesh* Nigeria Ethiopia Poverty Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, %) Tinker 218 Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 217 QAe521

97 Electrification rate 213, % Poverty and electricity access in selected developing countries, circles sized by total population Sources: World Bank; IEA; World Energy Outlook 215 Electricity and Poverty 1 Brazil Electricity China India Tinker Vietnam Energy does not end poverty. Bangladesh* Africa 6 Asia Cameroon Nigeria Latin Poverty America cannot 4 be ended without energy. Tanzania * Bangladesh uses 25 PPP and $2 2 Kenya Ethiopia a day poverty line Poverty Purchasing power Uganda parity Income % (<$3.1 a day at 211 PPP, %) Photos Tinker, Lynch, Ecuador, 217 QAe521

98 Poverty Tinker 218 Key Points Energy underpins modern economies and helps lift the world from poverty Energy resources vary by region and nations will use the energy resources that they have to reduce energy poverty

99 Outline Tinker 218 Energy Carbon Poverty Radical Middle

100 Carbon Tinker 218 Climate Change is the major issue of our time, and fossil fuels are the problem Poverty is the major issue of our time, and fossil fuels are the solution Poverty Interactive Systems Political Energy

101 Tinker 216 Environment Economy Radical Middle Energy

102 Tinker 218 Environment Politics, economics, and passion run deep on all sides of the climate change and poverty debate. Economy Energy

103 Tinker 218 Environment Is civil energy discourse possible? Economy Radical Middle Energy

104 Tinker 216 Environment Radical Middle Economy Energy

105 Tinker 216 Environment Economy Radical Middle Energy

106 Towards a Radical Middle Tinker 218 Understand that no form of energy is good or bad Assess the environmental impact of all energy Focus energy policy on energy security Make energy efficiency and energy storage tactical Recognize energy poverty as a critical challenge Engage in Energy Education!

107 keep it in the Ground.

108 Keep them in Poverty.

109 Lift them from Poverty! Africa from IEA, 218

110 Tinker 216 Environment Radical Middle Economy Energy

111 Tinker 216 Environment Economy Radical Middle Energy

112 Tinker 216 Environment Economy Radical Middle Energy

113 Tinker 218 Thanks! Join the Switch Energy Alliance SwitchOn.org Inspire an Energy Educated Future