Common Road to 2050 Workshop Common Road to 2050: Energy Networks and Policy Design (ENP2050) Project SCENARIOS STORIES

Transcription

1 Common Road to 2050 Workshop Common Road to 2050: Energy Networks and Policy Design (ENP2050) Project SCENARIOS STORIES Dr. Catalina Spataru UCL Energy Institute London, UK BHP Billiton Sustainable Communities/UCL Grand Challenge Symposium Series

2 Source: World Energy Council, 2012 UK ENERGY TRILEMMA

3 Mtoe UK is currently in transition to become a net energy importer Annual Indigenous production of primary fuels p Year Coal Petroleum Natural gas Nuclear Wind and natural flow hydro Source: UK Government, 2013

4 Current energy policy of the UK is set out in Low Carbon Transition Plan of July 2009 Energy White Paper of May 2007 Energy Bill

5 FACTS/ OPPORTUNITIES FACTS A fifth of Britain s power capacity is scheduled to close in the next decade, including all but one nuclear plant DEVELOPMENT & OPPORTUNITIES The Government s promise of building 40 new gas power stations. North Sea oil and gas in decline, global markets volatile and pricey. The Government recently issued 197 new licenses for oil and gas exploration in the North Sea: the largest number since Shale gas is proposed as a major additional source of gas for potential decades The exact potential is unknown for geological, economic and environmental. On Thursday last week, it was confirmed that negotiations between the government and the UK Onshore Operators Group had resulted in a new industry charter. The Australian firm Dart Energy has applied for planning permission for 14 coal bed methane wells and a network of pipelines near Falkirk.

6 The world of

7 2 Scenarios 2 Names Scenario1: ZORBA Scenario 2: KALINKA

8 We use these two iconic dances as a metaphoric basis for our proposed scenarios

9 ZORBA is a Greek dance, considered as a way of life, authentic integration of mind, body and spirit KALINKA is a Russian song, with which has a speedy tempo, light-hearted and cheerful lyrics.

10 What kind of dance should policy makers practice in their work?

11 ENP2050 Project Proposed Descriptive Scenarios ZORBA: predominant renewables (with storage) -Encourage long term security and environmental issues - need of a rapid uptake of renewable. Key driver: achieve environmental goals, a long term economic growth, with significant investments by 2030 and with support from the Government for development of low carbon technologies and high investments in energy storage. KALINKA: predominant FF (with CCS) + nuclear- Short term priority security, affordability prevents stress of immediate technological revolution. Key driver: recovering economic growth and meeting short term demand. Well known technologies dispatchable; but CCS not well known, with the limited carbon reduction in short term.

12 SCENARIOS STORIES DANCING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF ZORBA AND KALINKA 4 Pathways: The Black Pathway 2020 The Red Pathway 2030 The Blue Pathway 2040 The Green Pathway Descriptive Scenarios, a New Fire Speech for the UK Government

13 SCENARIOS STORIES DANCING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF ZORBA AND KALINKA ZORBA KALINKA LOW Use of existing infrastructure HIGH RAPID Progress in Innovation and SLOW R&D results HIGH Emissions reduction LOW LOW Potential trade HIGH HIGH Consumer participations, acceptance LOW HIGH The Government is willing to invest in the public LOW about environmental impact of energy choices CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE Growth in the transmission and distribution investments Growth in the relevant technologies and equipment before 2040 SOME SOME

14 Within the triangle, policymakers need to ask: What are the main needs of the country? What are the economic goals? What industries to we need to support over the next 20 years? Where are investments needed? Which instruments will we choose to address needs?

15 ZORBA TIME HORIZON Nuclear generation 2020 Generation mix begins transformation Transmission is a key enabler connecting & balancing new, diverse sources of energy Securing offshore wind is critical; 25% of energy from renewables 37% reduction in CO Electricity demand increases, driven by electric cars & heat pumps; gas and oil demand declines. Distribution network capacity significantly increases Some nuclear capacity remains as back-up 60% reduction in CO2 achieved 2040 Carbon Capture & Storage is deployed at significant scale Significant technology uncertainty, disruption may emerge 70% reduction in CO % reduction in CO2 is achieved Consumer energy behaviour is unrecognisable from today Renewable generation Interconnection Electricity demand SECURITY KALINKA 2020 Predominant fossil fuels, plans for nuclear and some shale gas Only 15% of energy from renewables 37% reduction in CO2 TIME HORIZON 2030 Energy Security has been reinforced with fossil fuels and nuclear capacity installed. A moderate, but fast installations of renewables 45% reduction in CO2 achieved 2040 Increase proportion of CCS Storage technologies start to be established 60% reduction in CO target 80% reduction in CO2 (based on 1990 level) Good progress with significant policy development favour the deployment of resources ENVIRONMENTAL Nuclear generation Renewable generation Interconnection Electricity demand AFFORDABILITY

16 Next steps Take into consideration discussions and results of the game and update the description of the scenarios proposed Quantify the scenarios (DECC calculator, DYNEMO, etc.) Produce a final report by October. Compare the results with existing studies A movie will be made publicly available with content extract from this workshop. A website is under-construction Final Presentation at Sustainable Resources for Sustainable Cities Symposium 5-6 November 2013

17 Thank you for your attention! Catalina would welcome comments and follow-up questions London