Regional Workshop. The challenge of the human factor and energy security, up to Rome, ENEA Headquarter, February 18, 2015

Transcription

1 MILESECURE-2050 Multidimensional Impact of the Low-carbon European Strategy on Energy Security, and Socio- Economic Dimension up to 2050 perspective Regional Workshop EUROPEAN SOCIETIES FACING ENERGY TRANSITION The challenge of the human factor and energy security, up to 2050 Rome, ENEA Headquarter, February 18, 2015 This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no

2 MILESECURE-2050 Multidimensional Impact of the Multidimensional Impact of the Low-carbon European Strategy on Energy Security, and Socio- Low-carbon European Strategy on Energy Security, and Socio-Economic Dimension up to 2050 perspective Economic Dimension up to 2050 perspective Introduction to the project Patrizia Lombardi - Jacopo Toniolo (Politecnico di Torino) Coordinator of MILESECURE-2050 Project Management Committee Meeting Rome, 16 February 2015 This project has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no

3 FB2 3 Table of contents Background problems Project objectives and approach Results achieved Conclusions and next steps

4 Diapositiva 3 FB2 Ho lasciato nascoste le slide su Project Meeting, Gantt Wp7 e Wp6, e il Deliverable quality template. Federica Borio; 11/07/2013

5 Background problems

6 5 Background Sustainability, security of supply and competitiveness are the three complementary pillars of the European energy policy (COM(2006) These three pillars have been translated into the main goals of the more recent EU energy strategy (COM(2010).

7 6 Background problems While the EU has been successful in institutionalising a climate policy, it has not yet been able to formulate a successful energy security policy Energy challenges, and therefore energy security and energy transition options vary across European countries. [ ]policies aimed at the reduction of GHG emission may affect the resilience of the energy system [ ] (EC, 2013)

8 7 Background problems There is an urgent need for an energy security framework that can analyse the impact of specific security events, [ ] Jonathan Stern (2004) In addition, although there is a broad agreement about the need for energy transition, the most effective way to achieve this remains unclear. POCACITO EU project, 2014

9 Project objectives and approach

10 9 MILESECURE-2050 aims to understand and overcome the political, economic and behavioural trends that led Europe to its difficulties in reducing fossil fuel consumption, and in diversifying its energy balance at rates which guarantee European energy security in the next years, reduce the threat of climate change, and diminish the risk of an energy gap in the coming decades.

11 10 A Systemic perspective Multiple perspectives on societal transition MILESECURE-2050 has adopted a combined perspective, which covers the interactions and synergies between societal processes, taking a more holistic approach to understanding societal change, being influenced by multiple factors. (MILESECURE-2050 DoW, 2012)

12 Bridging top down and botton up research, macro and local levels 11 MILESECURE-2050, D.3.1

13 Main results achieved

14 13 Energy security: a definition A Energy secure system is one evolving over time with an adequate capacity to absorb adverse uncertain events, so that it is able to continue satisfying the energy service needs of its intended users with acceptable changes in their amount and prices (Gracceva and Zeniewski, 2012)

15 14 Distribution of oil and gas reserves (BP, 2013)

16 Issues identified in current energy trends and policies 15 1 Dependency - From import ( 53% of PES) - From fossil fuel ( 75% of energy need) - Each member state acts differently EU Member States Energy dependency (2011) Net energy self-sufficiency (EC, 2013)

17 16 Low carbon scenario The European Commission has developed a "Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050" (COM,2011) Energy Roadmap 2050 ENERGY SECURITY? Target of global climate stabilization at 2 C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, corresponding to -80% GHG reductions target in 2050 (100%=1990) (Source: EU, December 2011)

18 Issues identified in current energy trends and policies 17 2 Consumption Still a major global consumer (13%) after Chine and USA. Economic sectors rely on different PES Multiple dependency Lifestyles and patterns of use societal changes The EU Energy flow (EC, 2013)

19 18 Transition toward Low Carbon Society? Over the past few years, Europe's energy system has been encouraged to move towards a low-carbon, competitive and secure energy system (COM, 2011) According to the European Commission (DG CLIMA), "In a lowcarbon society we will live and work in low-energy, low-emission buildings with intelligent heating and cooling systems. We will drive electric and hybrid cars and live in cleaner cities with less air pollution and better public transport. NOTE: A societal system supportying the LCS is essential

20 19 Local energy transition research A big part of the MILESECURE-2050 research has been based on the identification of a series of "anticipatory experiences" of energy transition, Such experiences were understood as already existing "parts of a future post-carbon society allowing to focus on concrete factual elements and not mere hypotheses

21 The human factor as engine of energy transition 20 The set up of energy production and consumption becomes more visible and closer to citizens (citizens gain the ownership of energy production; spread of new technical skills; activation of social networks). The energy issue becomes a direct interest of citizens who actively participate in the regulation, orientation, management (also in economic terms) and monitoring of measures and policies of energy transition. There is a strong personal effort on the energy transition through an intense emotional involvement; a highest attention to several aspects of everyday life (food, waste collection, energy consumption, body care and health); an increased use of physical effort in the field of mobility.

22 21 Paradigm shift Caiati G. and Pearson A., (2014) 21

23 22 Relevance of E-S-P factors over time

24 Conclusions and next steps in project activities

25 24 Next dissemination activities M June 2015: Warsaw Regional Workshop NEXT MONTHS March 2015 M27 onwords M 31 July 2015 : Newsletter Issue 5 - First International Seminar, Manifesto Publication (WP5), final products of WP4; (MUSTS, LSC, SMASH) M33 15 September 2015: Manchester Regional Workshop M35 November 2015: Brussels International Seminar M36 December 2015 : Newsletter Issue 6 - Second international Seminar and Policy guidelines (WP5) (POLITO, LSC, MUSTS) MILESECURE-2050 Energy Day Brussels, 25 June 2014

26 25 Thank You! For further information: