Roadmap Solar Energy April 2015

Transcription

1 Roadmap Solar Energy April 2015 This HTS&M document describes the application theme Solar Equipment, Processes, and Materials (EPM). As it has been chosen to formulate only one national Solar roadmap for both the top sectors HTSM and Energy, the content of this concise HTSM document corresponds to relevant parts of the more detailed Roadmap document of the TKI Urban Energy (Solar and Smart energy solutions; especially program line 1) issued under the top sector Energy. The HTSM roadmap Solar Energy focuses more specifically on the solar Equipment, Processes and Materials aspects of this roadmap. It is noted that it additionally addresses the topic of EPM for Solar Fuels (energy to fuel conversion) which does not appear in the TKI Urban Energy document, but is linked to complementary activities of the top sector Chemistry. 1. Societal challenges and economic relevance Solar energy is an icon of sustainability with a very high public acceptance. It has been shown to be technologically feasible to generate a very substantial part (up to more than 50% beyond 2050) of the world population s energy need. Recently, solar electricity has started to compete with commercial grid tariffs for consumers in several geographic regions (this is called grid parity). At present, a cumulated capacity of >200 GWp is installed worldwide, and newly installed capacity is expected to grow from 60GWp/year in 2015 to over 100GWp/year in Moreover, solar energy still has an enormous potential for further cost reduction, and is expected to be able to compete in cost with conventional (fossil) means of energy generation within one or two decades. The present world market volume is more than 100 billion /year, and it creates jobs for > people. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was around 30 % over many years. In the Netherlands more that 1 GWp of PV is now installed, a volume that is predicted to have grown to 4-8 GWp in Connection with the key societal themes (Climate, Energy, Health, Mobility, Security) Solar energy is directly linked to all key societal themes: CO 2 reduction and reduced environmental impact (climate and health) Increased independence of fossil fuel supply and centralized energy supply (security) Capable to generate a substantial fraction of the world s energy (energy) Extremely effective in combination with electric driving (mobility) Global market size addressed ( ) The total world market for PV was around 100 billion euro in 2014, and is expected to grow to 300 billion euro in Dutch companies are active over the entire value chain (materials, processes, equipment, production of PV devices, logistics, integrated systems and modules, system installation, grid connected and stand-alone applications, building integration, finance, etc). The Netherlands was lagging behind with respect to installed PV capacity but is now internationally ranked as a rapidly maturing market, and has a strong position in production equipment and (integrated) module manufacturing, as well as smart grid integration (electronics, power conversion, ict). The global market for equipment showed continued growth with a peak in demand around Although demand has fallen steeply in the second half of 2011, 2014 showed first signs of recovery of the equipment market. Dutch manufacturers used the intermediate years as an opportunity to invest (anticyclical) in technology innovations, preparing to harvest when the anticipated market recovery takes place. It is generally expected that within a few years the current situation of overcapacity in PV production facilities will come to an end, and result in market growth for PV production and integration equipment. In addition, in our region (NL, Europe) increasing industrial production activity is seen on integrated (BI)PV components and energy integration systems. The Roadmap Solar HTSM v3.doc 1 of 8

2 market for energy storage and conversion systems already shows considerable growth, and this will accelerate further. Competitive position of Dutch industry, total R&D investments More than 200 Dutch companies and more than 1000 installers are active along the value chain for photovoltaics, with a total turnover of more than 0,7 billion euro (2014). The sector provides jobs for about 5-10 thousand fte (data from different sources 2014) and growth potential until 2020 is an estimated doubling of these figures by 2020 and tripling by The present turnover realized in equipment manufacturing is almost entirely for export. Worldwide market share of the Dutch equipment manufacturers was >5% of a total market of 10 billion euro in 2010, and 12 billion in When world market size for equipment fell steeply in recent years, sales dropped heavily, but it is noted that innovative Dutch equipment continued to be installed at facilities of leading PV manufacturers around the globe, providing a good position now market recovers. The competitive position of Dutch industry is strong: not only because it is supported by a world top level knowledge position of Dutch universities and GTI s in photovoltaics, but even more importantly because the rapid development of a large scale PV industry is taking place by effective use of existing backgrounds such as semiconductor-, optical media-, printing-, mechatronics-, glass- and chemical industry. All of these backgrounds are strongly represented in the HTS&M ecosystem, and in general the same supply chain can find an additional market (or new focus) in solar technology. The solar market fits very well in the total portfolio of the high-end equipment ecosystem, making it less dependent on demand fluctuations in specific markets (e.g. demand cycle in solar will differ from demand cycle in semiconductor). At present, the generated turnover is dominated by production of subsystems and modules for internationally leading foreign OEM s and end users. The ambition is to develop more Dutch business at OEM level, and to increase value creation by a higher level of collaboration and integration along the value chain. Together with countries like Belgium and Denmark, the Netherlands has as special feature that virtually all PV is integrated into the built environment. This leads to a rapidly growing interest of industrial parties to invest in production of integrated PV concepts, e.g. PV integrated building components. Further, adapting local energy use to local energy production (self-consumption and smart grid) and storage of intermittent PV energy generation (batteries, fuels) develop into promising markets for innovative equipment and materials. Both areas are expected to show over proportional growth in the coming years. 2. Application and technology challenges State of the art for industry and science State of the art from an industrial point of view is that the solar cell market is dominated by silicon wafer based PV (>85%) with a proven track record of over 30 years (oldest installations still functioning). On the other hand, it is expected that on the long term the world market share of thin film PV may again grow relative to wafer-based PV. Currently commercial thin film technologies like CIGS and CdTe are approaching the conversion efficiency of (bulk market) multicrystalline wafer technology. Recent dramatic progress (last 3 years) in thin film Perovskite efficiency records has led to massive attention of the research community and thereby creates the possibility of opening a new low cost thin film PV manufacturing route, which builds on already existing thin film manufacturing procedures. And thirdly, combination of thin film and crystalline PV technologies in Roadmap Solar HTSM v3.doc 2 of 8

3 tandem devices is believed to be one of the serious candidates to bring PV conversion efficiency to a new level (beyond 25%). The emphasis is on application of thin film technologies, both in silicon wafer-based PV and thin film PV (CIGS, Si, OPV and HOPV (incl Perovskites), CdTe, III-V). Better margins are obtained in the high quality, high efficiency segment of the silicon wafer-based PV market. These qualities are most notably obtained with wider application of thin film antireflection, passivation, novel heterojunction concepts and improved light management technologies. And as argued above, it is expected that the world market share of thin film PV itself may again grow relative to wafer based PV. Future outlook, in present and emerging markets With the rapid decrease of solar module production costs, the trend is that the total cost of solar electricity generation will no longer be dominated by the module cost, which will become even smaller than the installation and balance of system costs. Ease of integration, both on electric system level and building and construction level, is becoming more important. Another focus point is that the increasing share of sustainable energy supply to the grid will put increasing demand on matching of supply and demand (smart grid), and new strategies for energy storage. Next to battery (-energy management), special focus will be given to fundamental research on strategies to generate solar fuels. Various Dutch universities have identified solar fuels as an important research area and industrial participation already exists regarding this theme. It is expected that both in terms of devices as well as manufacturing technologies, there will be a very strong link between conventional PV and solar fuel generation. Therefore the two subjects are combined in the roadmap items presented here. 3. Priorities and implementation The HTS&M innovation contract Solar Equipment, Processes and Materials addresses the following priorities: Photovoltaics (PV): - Equipment: Generic in-line production technology for cells and modules o Handling and processing of rigid-substrate-based PV, e.g.: (Contactless) handling of silicon wafers at decreasing wafer thickness Controlled temperature cycling and handling of glass substrates o Roll-to-roll handling and processing of flexible-substrate-based PV Precise position control wrt process source, precise layer to layer overlay, position tracing, speed and position control (also at locally varying temperatures), contact less handling strategies o Device and module integration concepts for more efficient production Contactless processing of wafers; module level processing of wafers More efficient interconnection strategies, e.g. silicon back contact, post process scribing of thin film (back end interconnection) Smart manufacturing for low cost manufacturing with improved freedom for product diversification o In-line or off-line inspection and quality control Equipment for in-situ and in-line process monitoring Substrate labeling and tracing Equipment for off-line quality inspection and assessment of product life time Contamination control o Fab design and production optimization Roadmap Solar HTSM v3.doc 3 of 8

4 o o Process stability and reproducibility Integration of process steps; all atmospheric or all vacuum Green processing Processes with reduced environmental impact; reduced use of solvents, cleaning materials, gases; reduced use of scarce materials Reduced power consumption Efficient use of materials, reduced exhaust and improved recycling See also HTSM roadmaps Mechatronics/Manufacturing and Embedded Systems - Processes o Printing technology see also HTSM roadmap Printing Large area homogeneous printing of very thin layers (nm control) Printing of thinner lines with higher aspect ratios o Gas phase technology (CVD, PVD, ALD, etching, doping) o Ion implantation o Wet chemical technology (deposition, electrochemistry, etching) o Pre- and post-treatment (cleaning, annealing, mechanical treatment, etching) o Encapsulation o Scribing (interconnection) and texturing (light management) o Laser based processing o Nanoscale technologies - Materials o Materials optimization and innovation absorber materials ((poly)crystalline Si, CIGS composition control, thin film Si multijunction, OPV stability and performance, perovskite/kesterite material exploration and/or high bandgap development, III-V) (transparent) conductors: transparency for wider wavelength range, improved conductivity, morphology control for light trapping, stability encapsulants and barriers: flexible encapsulants for improved lifetime, diffusion barriers on substrates (substrate development) as well as on active devices antireflection layers: weather resistant on glass and polymer (module encapsulation), high rate/ low temperature on absorber materials conversion layers: up and down conversion, phosphors substrate materials: low cost substrates, high temperature resistant (glass/flexible) substrates o o Metallurgical routes to produce thin silicon substrates Nanomaterials (nanophotonics, plasmonic metal nanoparticles, conversion layers, virtual lattices, quantum dot absorbers, etc.) - System Applications: Device and system solutions for optimized production and use o Cell and module designs for reduced production cost and improved product quality o Incorporation of PV with energy storage devices and systems o Component and system solutions for reduced production cost of Balance of System (BoS) components and new applications (cells and modules for smart integration, product integration, etc.) o Production technology for concentrator systems (PV, PV-T and thermal) Solar Fuels and Storage: Roadmap Solar HTSM v3.doc 4 of 8

5 - Process options o Photocatalytic cells; 3 options for single unit operation: i) H 2 O splitting into H 2 and O 2, ii) converting CO 2 and H 2 O to hydrocarbons and O 2, and iii) N 2 and H 2 O conversion into NH 3 and O 2. o Multiple unit operation; options in which electrons produced by PV are directly (electrocatalysis) or indirectly (e.g. plasma generation) used to produce H 2 and/or CO: conversion of primary products to hydrocarbons by integrated catalysis solutions. o Thermochemical conversion of CO 2 and H 2 O into fuels. - Process technologies for controlled manufacturing of devices (overlap with PV) o Gas phase technology (CVD, PVD, ALD, etching, doping) o Wet chemical technology (deposition, electrochemistry, etching, molecular imprinting) o Thin layer technologies o Pre- and post-treatment (cleaning, annealing, mechanical treatment, etching) o Laser based processing o Scribing and texturing - Materials for Solar Fuels o Light harvesting materials with small bandgaps ( ev) and controlled defect concentration (target 10% solar to fuel efficiency). o Nanomaterials for oxidation and reduction catalysis (linked with or assembled on light harvesting materials, including (multiple junction) PV devices o Materials optimized for plasma induced conversion, i.e. developments of catalysts for reactions with radicals. o Optimization of (photo)-electrodes for electrochemical conversion o Supramolecular catalysts, Molecular Antennas. - Device and system solutions o Process design for solar to fuel converters, including atmospheric CO 2 capture o Multi-functional (micro) reactor development; prevention of mass transfer issues. o Light management - (Development of) methodologies for fundamental research o Steady state spectroscopies under realistic process conditions. o Time-resolved pump-probe spectroscopies, preferably under realistic process conditions. o Study of light based catalysis by AFM/STM microscopy o Single molecule fluorescence microscopy for probing elementary steps of electron transfer reactions o Highly sensitive IR spectroscopy for gas sensing at ultra-low concentration o Modeling procedures for photocatalytic behavior. o Compact heat storage: phase-change and thermochemical materials and systems Collaboration activities TKI Solar It was the explicit wish of the Dutch solar industry that innovation activities under HTS&M and Energy, and under sub programs of HTS&M (Solar, Materials, Nanotechnology, Printing, Mechatronics) specifically focused on solar are brought together in one national Roadmap which Roadmap Solar HTSM v3.doc 5 of 8

6 addresses the topic of Solar (PV) technology. Specific aspects of the joint solar roadmap by are funded by either top sector HTS&M or Energy. The following sub activities are understood to be (entirely or in part) performed under the joint solar roadmap: Solliance: Solliance (founded in 2011 by ECN, TNO, TU/e and Holst Centre, joined by imec (B), FZJ (D), TUD, Univ Hasselt (B), and open for additional partners). The partners, and a growing number of industrial clients, share lab facilities, equipment, expertise, and personnel. Focus is on process- and equipment development, materials development, device development and testing, and realization of demonstrators (devices and field applications) in the area of thin-film photovoltaic technologies and thin-film technologies for photovoltaics. Silicon Competence Center: brings together all knowledge partners and equipment manufacturers on the same topics as Solliance, but with the focus on silicon wafer based PV. Aims to provide new lab infrastructure for Si-PV with a fully operational showcase of advanced Dutch equipment for improvement of manufacturing equipment, benchmarking of equipment and materials wrt state of the art PV production, and piloting of next-generation modules, with specific attention to eco-monitoring and automation. Solar Energy Application Center (SEAC): alliance of TNO, ECN and Zuyd University of Applied Sciences, focused on bundling and development of knowledge about the applications of (PV and thermal) solar energy systems, in the built environment, infrastructure and networks, including their mechanical and electrical integration. M2i: Materials research with a focus on reliability and lifetime (of passive layers) Advanced Dutch Energy Materials ADEM Innovation Lab: Materials for photovoltaics (and other energy technologies) FOM : Industrial Partnership Programs and Photovoltaics Focus Groups STW: Individual solar projects and Perspectief Programs NanoNextNL: Nanotechnologies for photovoltaics and light management 3.1 TKI program Committed and expected R&D activities contributing to the TKI program: - Solliance HOPV program: development of processes and equipment for roll to roll and sheet to sheet manufacturing of novel Hybrid OPV concepts by all printed (solution based) processing, and development of Hybrid OPV module integration concepts - Solliance CIGS/CZTS program: development of processes and equipment for sheet to sheet and roll to roll manufacturing of novel CIGS/CZTS PV concepts with a focus on all atmospheric processing, and development of CIGS/CZTS module integration concepts - Thin film concepts for improved efficiency of, or in combination with, crystalline silicon PV - Integrated PV concepts; production technology and demonstrator formation for innovative integration of PV elements in building components, automotive and consumer products. 3.2 European program Alignment with European strategies and policy instruments: The theme Photovoltaics is well positioned in the EU Horizon 2020 plans. Position papers have been issued (input of EPIA and EU PV Technology Platform in the EU Strategic Energy Technology (SET) plan) and new collaborations, like EMIRI (the Energy Materials Industrial Research Initiative) have been established with substantial Dutch participation. Specific programs like KIC-EIT and regional EU funding (EFRO) through Interreg s and OP s also address durable energy development and it s application. Implementation in European and multi-national programs: Roadmap Solar HTSM v3.doc 6 of 8

7 Present and anticipated (contracts under negotiation) EU research projects with Dutch participation under the Solar program are, amongst others: R2RCIGS, CPV4All, NanoClear, HiFlex, Flexcellence, Fast Track, RinG, SolarRok, Cheetah, Swing, ACCESS, EFFIC, and PV Opmaat. 4. Partners and process Industry (selection; incomplete list) NL: Tempress, DSM, VDL-ETG, OTB/Roth&Rau, ASMI, Dutch Space, Stork Prints, Scheuten NL SME s: Bosch Rexroth, CCM, Chematronics, Dimark Solar, Eternal Sun, Betronic solutions, Frencken, Heliox, Holland Innovative, HyET Solar, IAI Industrial Systems, Imtech, Lamers, Levitech, LineSolar, Maan Special Products, Meco, Next Scan Technology, Morphotonics, Oskomera, Peer+, Rimas, RUV Systems, Smit Thermal Solutions, Solaytec, SunCycle, Thin Film Factory, Trespa, Yparex International: A.o. Agfa, DyeSolar, Nano-C, ntact, Plextronics, Solvay, Thyssen Krupp, Tata, Solartek, Arcelor Mittal Science Universities: TU Delft (Zeman, Smets), TU Eindhoven (Kessels, Janssen), TU Twente (Blank), UU (Sark), RUG (Hummelen), RUN (Schermer) FOM: AMOLF (Polman), DIFFER (vd Sanden) Research institutes: ECN, TNO, imec (B), FZ Jülich (D), Univ Hasselt Initiatives on Solar Fuels: FES Towards Bio Solar Cells (de Groot, Grondelle et al), NWO-thema Duurzame Energie (Van de Sanden/Dam/Lefferts/Weckhuysen et al), DIFFER-Solar Fuels (van de Sanden et al), 3TU-solar fuels (Mul/Dam/Hensen et al). [continued on next page] Roadmap Solar HTSM v3.doc 7 of 8

8 5. Investments All data refer to contributions of the stated parties in public-private collaborations of any kind in relation to this roadmap, including but not limited to contract research, public funded national and international projects, and TKI-related activities. The figures requested are annual cash flow, including the value of in-kind contributions, not the multi-annual commitments stated in that year. The contributions in the (lower) European agenda are included in the (upper) overall agenda of the roadmap. Roadmap Industry TNO NLR NWO Universities Departments 1 and regions Grand total European agenda within roadmap Industry TNO NLR NWO Universities Co-financing of European programs 3 European Commission TNO financing and industry participation includes the Solar programme of TNO-Holst. Numbers for 2016 and further are estimates. 1 Ministries, excluding contributions to TKI HTSM 2 Regional and Local Authorities 3 Ministry of Economic Affairs contributions to JU ECSEL and EUREKA clusters Roadmap Solar HTSM v3.doc 8 of 8