Harvesting the Botswanan Solar Potential Based on German Lessons Learnt Jörg Mayer, Managing Director BSW-Solar

Transcription

1 Harvesting the Botswanan Solar Potential Based on German Lessons Learnt Jörg Mayer, Managing Director BSW-Solar Gaborone, February 18th, 2015 Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.v. (BSW-Solar)

2 German Solar Association: who we are TASK To represent the solar industry in Germany in the thermal and photovoltaic and storage sector VISION A sustainable global energy supply provided by solar (renewable) energy ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy sector for over 30 years REPRESENTS More than 800 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business from all over the world HEADQUARTERS Berlin Equipment Materials System components Wholesale & Distribution Project Development Constructi on O&M

3 BSW-Solar: Working world wide to improve frameworks for the use of solar energy! 3 Partnerships, business networks Market reports, esp. Enabling PV Partner countries in PV FINANCING

4 Agenda 4 The Success of PV German Energiewende : lessons learnt Technology, Engineering and Financing from Germany

5 Solar PV Capacity, Germany (GW) PV in Germany: ~40 GW capacity, with solar PV now over 6% of generation GERMANY: around 40 GW (2015) Annual Cumulative World: ~230 GW Source: Bundesnetzagentur, BSW Solar

6 Installed Solar PVCapacity (MW) Business on the roof: 3/5 of German PV capacity at the rooftop scale in >1000 kwp > kwp > kwp >10-40 kwp >5-10 kwp 0-5 kwp Source: BNetzA, BSW-Solar

7 Globally, utility-scale PV dominates: share of grid- and off-grid connected installations 7 Source: IEA PVPS

8 Residential PV system cost have decreased significantly all around the world 8

9 Annual units sold / Germany German storage market proofs high quality standards, triggered by new incentive program 9 Without funding Funded by state program ~ 7000 ~ ~ Signal of government via incentive program accelerated market Total cumulated market to date: 30,000 units in 2.5 years Storages have to be grid-servicing, enlarging PV connection capacity High quality standards aligned: obligatory warranty, installation and safety requirements

10 Cost comparison: PV-Hybrid is competitive at low Diesel Costs. Paired with storage, generation parity still good. 10 Source: Reiner Lemoine Institute, 2015

11 Good IEA-guidebook for PV-Diesel hybrid systems: how to operate and maintain it 11 New guidebook of International Energy Agency (IEA) for system users and operators: How the systems are designed How to explain to the user How to maintain How to measure performance How to evaluate loads and generation Download:

12 Agenda 12 The Success of PV German Energiewende : lessons learnt Technology, Engineering and Financing from Germany

13 Objectives of the German Energiewende - base for achieving recent COP21 targets Reduction of greenhouse emissions by 80 95% (compared to 1990) Reduction of the primary energy consumption by 50% Phase-out of all nuclear power stations (until 2022) 35% electricity from renewables 50% electricity from renewables 80% electricity from renewables Share of renewables in the complete energy consumption 60% New HV transmission lines (4540km)

14 The German Energiewende has unlocked huge private investments 14

15 German success criteria and lessons learned 15 Reliable policy for 15 years (Feed-in-Tariffs as basis for market growth) Incentivizing private capital instead of state expenses No retroactive measures, damaging investors confidence Lessons learned: Better balance between tariff levels and cost levels to reduce burden on society Leaving the FIT-path too early as long as other business models are not fully in place Buy-in and participation of utilities needed Clear adaption or exit strategy for conventional power plants as part of the transition period

16 How the Germany looks at the development today. 16 Government targets and policies are widely accepted Utilities are changing their business models now after years of wait & see. They adapt PV business models in order to retain customers Renewable energy industry intensely cooperates with grid operators and utilities in the field of system integration Many utilities are or are about to become member in the German Solar Association in order to accelerate their transition

17 Is the German Energiewende replicable? Yes, but at much lower costs! 17 Germany Germany has a strong industrial base and many ecological entrepreneurs, strong research and educational system Replicable? Possible, but not necessary to start. Many solar companies had to shut down due to Chinese replication success and trade policies Not so important for installation Germany has had a good base of electricians, willing to be qualified to solar installers Germans are willing to pay a little surplus for higher quality providing lower LCOEs over the PV lifetime Job education needed Reasonable anywhere

18 Agenda 18 The Success of PV German Energiewende : lessons learnt Technology, Engineering and Financing from Germany

19 What can German companies offer? 19 All Solar solutions needed for utility-scale and residential PV: modules, inverters, components, batteries, EPC-services, O&M services Quality products that are designed for a long life time at very low maintenance costs that undergo some of the strictest testing requirements in the world. Knowledge and a lot of experience around marketing, sales, installation, maintenance and in qualifying and training your staff. Not only state-of-the art but also innovative and reliable technology with long warranties. Often 20 or more years of experience with grid connected or off-grid solar applications! Use BSW-Solar for a gateway to Botswanan-German business!

20 Upstream Business in BSW-Solar (sample companies) 20 Equipment Materials System components Wholesale & Distribution Project Development Constructi on O&M Find companies at BSW-Solar: or at Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI):

21 Good downstream capacities for emerging solar markets (sample companies) 21 Equipment Materials System components Wholesale & Distribution Project Development Constructi on O&M Find companies at BSW-Solar: or at Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI):

22 Hardware costs have become a minor factor of LCOEs - Costs of capital is the leading factor 22

23 Germany brings some sources for financing medium-sized PV projects (excerpt) 23 Support How much and for whom? What for and with which objective? By whom? developpp.de 50% of investment, max 200 k for German and European companies Projects with sustainable perspective, economically viable, such as pilot plants, education measures, policy advice BMZ Feasibility studies 50% of cost, max 200 k for German and European companies with max 500 M turnover Feasibility and market studies for preparing investments, e.g. location study for wind- & PV farms BMZ Climate Partnerships with industry 50% of investment, max 200 k for German, European and local companies Climate protection projects such as pilot plants, education measures, introduction of innovative technology BMUB Up-scaling Max.500 k as refundable grant (when successful), max. 50% of total invest for German, European and local SMEs in developing countries Innovative Pioneer investments on the cusp to commercialization like Solar Home Systems

24 The Off-Grid Power Forum at Intersolar Europe The Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE) and BSW-Solar present off-grid in the spotlight at Europe s most important solar trade fair Intersolar 2016, June Off-grid solutions and market-related topics will be presented to the public sector, industry and academic representatives in the Off-Grid Power Forum Close cooperation and delegation hosting with the German Federal Ministry of Economic Development (BMZ), the German Federal Ministry of Energy (BMWi) and IRENA. Wednesday Thursday Friday Cross-sectoral Systems & Efficiency Systems for Islands Opening Ceremony Stand-alone Systems Water & Irrigation PV Hybrid Mini-Grids Financing & Business Models for Off-Grid Networking Reception Storage Solutions Productive Use, Industrial and Mining Systems Innovation Forum, Award Ceremony & Exhibition

25 Conclusion: German lessons learnt for Botswana 25 For policy makers: Express a clear commitment for Solar Energy so that the people believe in the business opportunities. For investors: Look at the real levelized cost of energy (LCOE) instead of accepting bargain deals with short product lifetime. For the solar industry: Join forces and work together for a good framework, for high quality and good financing conditions. Today, SIAB, GIZ and BSW-Solar join forces and sign an MoU:

26 What can German companies offer? Thank you for your attention Solutions to provide and manage your electricity grid reliably with electric Jörg energy Mayer from solar PV and / or hybrid sources! Managing Quality products Director that are designed for a long life time at very low mayer@bsw-solar.de maintenance costs that undergo some of the strictest testing requirements in the world! Low-cost products related to life-cycle Knowledge and a lot of experience around marketing, sales, installation and maintenance! Experience in qualifying and training your staff! Not only state-of-the art but also innovative and reliable technology with long warranties! Often 20 or more years of experience with grid connected or off-grid solar applications! 26 24/01/ Source: Solarmarkt