Perspectives on Climate Change and Energy for Sustainable Development. Leena Srivastava Executive Director

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1 Perspectives on Climate Change and Energy for Sustainable Development Leena Srivastava Executive Director

2 Energy Demand India is the Fifth Largest Energy Consumer mtoe USA China Russian Federation Source: BP Stats 2005 Japan India Germany Canada France United Kingdom South Korea Brazil

3 Per Capita Energy Consumption (kgoe) Low per capita energy consumption USA China Russian Federation Japan India Germany Canada France United Kingdom South Korea World Average Sources: BP Stats 2005, HDR 2005

4 Crude Oil Imports Oil import dependency more than 75% (P) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Crude Oil Import (MMT) Import Dependency (%) Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 2005

5 Commercial Energy Consumption Agriculture 4% others 12% Residential 10% Industry 51% Transport 23% Source: Compiled by TERI

6 Growth in Transport Sector Transport is the fastest growing energy sub-sector Over 80% of passengers and 60% of freight are moved by road Increasing dependence on energy intensive personal modes of transport Diesel and petrol contribute to 98% of energy consumed in the transport sector Total No. of Registered Vehicles in India (millions) Source: MoRT&H Statistics 2005

7 Power Sector Peak (12.3%) and energy (7.7%) shortages today High transmission and distribution losses: 30-40% Future capacity needs ~ 1,00,000 MW to be added in period Another ~ 4,00,000 MW till 2050 Supply side efficiency and Demand management Assessed potential of 25,000 MW energy saving One unit saved can avoid 2.5 to 3 times of fresh capacity addition

8 Source: compiled by TERI Energy Intensity Specific energy use (Mn kcal/tonne) 1.2 Japan UK US India India s energy intensity/gdp 3.7 times of Japan 1.4 times of Asia 1.5 times of USA Steel Cement

9 Energy Resources Coal meets 54% of India s total primary energy requirements Domestic availability plays a key role Petroleum and natural gas ~ 40 % Hydro ~ 5% and Nuclear 1% Electricity energy requirements 70 % met through thermal power plants Increasing role of natural gas

10 Significant Untapped Potential R/P ratio for coal: > 200 years 80% of India s territory yet to be explored Wind 45,000 MW: exploited 1400 MW Large potential from other renewable sources such as solar, tidal, small-hydro and biomass energy Hydro - 125,000 MW; exploited ~ 24,000 MW Cogeneration potential ~ 15,000 MW Coal bed methane: potential 20,000 MW

11 Also..

12 Primary Fuels Used in Cooking - Rural % 70% 63% 56% 49% 42% 35% 28% 21% 14% 7% 0% 64.10% 13.10% 12.80% Fuels 1.62% 5.67% 2.48% Firewood Crop Residue Cowdung Cake Kerosene LPG Other

13 Primary Fuels in Lighting - Rural % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 43.52% 55.61% 10% 0% Fuels Electricity Kerosene Others 0.86%

14 Rural Electricity Access 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 72% 57% 30% 20% 12% 10% 0% Rural Population as a % of Total Population Rural Households yet to be electrified un-electrified v illages Source: Ministry of Power 2005

15 Future Prospects

16 India hopes for Economic growth rates of 8-10% per annum Energy for all on demand in the next decade Developed world status by 2020

17 Total Primary Energy Requirement mtoe Total Primary Energy (mtoe) Years BAU OPTIMISTIC Increase in primary energy 4.0 times by 2031 (BAU) 3.4 times (OPTIMISTIC) OPTIMISTIC scenario considers more aggressive technological pathway both for resource supplies and end-use technology penetration

18 Total Commercial Energy Supply BAU OPTIMISTIC mtoe mtoe / / / / / / / / / / / / / /32 Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear Commercial energy estimated to increase between 4.7 to 5.5 times from 2001 to 2031

19 Energy Security Fuel imports in 2031 Coal imports decrease in the OPTIMISTIC scenario due to clean coal technologies & efficiency improvements mtoe BAU OPTIMISTIC BAU OPTIMISTIC BAU Coal Oil Gas OPTIMISTIC Oil & gas import dependency increases to 84% (BAU) & 80% (OPT) in 2031 Coal import dependency increases to 67% (BAU) & 61% (OPT) in 2031

20 Power Generation Technologies Technology mix in power generation IGCC is a clearly preferred option, but needs to be adapted & demonstrated for Indian coals GW Wind & Solar Nuclear Hydro Gas IGCC Vacres Coal IGCC Coal efficient Coal R&M Coal subcritical Hydro is a preferred option Govt. should pursue aggressive strategy to tap the potential as per Plans Nuclear power needs to be pursued from energy security angle BAU 2006 OPTIMISTIC 2031 BAU 2031 OPTIMISTIC

21 Coal Consumption (MT) MT Comparison of coal consumption BAU CC BAU NCC OPTIMISTIC CC OPTIMISTIC NCC Decrease in coal requirement (coking & non-coking) in the OPTIMISTIC scenario is due to energy efficiency improvements in power and industry 2006/ /32

22 Gas (bcm) Natural gas imports bcm / / / / / /32 BAU OPTIMISTIC Total gas consumption restricted at 93 bcm after 2021; domestic gas 46 bcm

23 Growth & Energy in Transport Sector Trends in Passenger movement Trends in Freight Movement Billion Passenger kilometres(bpkm) Year Billion Tonne Kilometres(BTkm.) Year Rail Road Rail Road Passenger movement demand increases 8.65 times; rail based 8.7 times, road based 8.6 times Freight movement demand increases 22 times; rail based 10 times, road based 29 times

24 Energy Use in the Transport Sector BAU OPTIMISTIC mtoe mtoe Diesel Gasoline Electricity Clean fuels Diesel Gasoline Electricity Clean fuels Total fuel requirement decreases from 360 mtoe to 280 mtoe in 2031 savings equivalent to 3 times the current consumption

25 Energy Use in Households BAU OPTIMISTIC mtoe mtoe Traditional fuels Kersosene LPG Electricity Traditional fuels Kersosene LPG Electricity Electricity to all by 2011/12 in both cases and shifts from traditional to modern fuels based on affordability

26 Options

27 Mitigation Option Clean coal technologies such as IGCC, Ultra super critical, PFBC etc Selling Point in India Coal shortages => Need for efficiency improvement

28 Mitigation Option Increased Renewables Selling Point in India EA 2003 => Renewables Purchase Obligation

29 Mitigation Option Bio-fuels Selling Point in India Energy Supply and Access

30 Mitigation Option Low carbon fuels such as Natural gas, Nuclear Selling Point in India Energy Security

31 Mitigation Option Energy efficiency Selling Point in India Energy savings, reduced energy cost burden

32 Energy for Sustainable Development Goldemberg s 1 KW translates to 0.75 toe/capita/year India s energy consumption in 2030 would be approaching this US today is at ~ 8 toe while the world average is at ~ 2 toe

33 In sum Common but differentiated responsibility Focus on SD