3D modeling and prediction of coolwater fish habitat under changing climate

Transcription

1 3D modeling and prediction of coolwater fish habitat under changing climate Shahram Missaghi Water Resources Team; University of Minnesota Extension th Street W.; Farmington, MN Miki Hondzo Professor of Civil, Environmental, and Geo- Engineering; St. Anthony Falls Laboratory 2 Third Avenue SE, Minneapolis, MN William Herb Research Associate; St. Anthony Falls Laboratory 2 Third Avenue SE, Minneapolis, MN Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.

2 TOPIC: 3D MODELING AND PREDICTION OF COOLWATER FISH HABITAT UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE Missaghi, Shahram, Miki Hondzo, and William Herb. "Prediction of lake water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fish habitat under changing climate." Climatic Change (2017): What did we learn? Objectives & results 2. Approaches, techniques, methodologies 3. Results 4. Why does it matter? 5. Q&A 2017 Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved. 2

3 1. What did we learn?

4 1. What did we learn? 0 Fish Habitat Does Respond to Lake Warming Today Depth (m) A warmer future A very warmer future Depth (m) Depth (m) no refuge Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

5 1b. Why does it matter? Motivation Q: What will happened to the key water quality parameters that shape the coolwater fish habitat under changing climate

6 2. How did we do it? HN FN FE

7 2. What to evaluate? Coolwater Fish Habitat Work by Prof. H. Stefan Research Group (Stefan et al., 2001) Habitat Criteria Conditions Good Growth (GG) (16.3 < T < 28.2) AND ( DO > 3) (28.2 <T < 30.4) OR Restricted Growth (RG) (T< 16.3 AND DO > 3 ) Lethal (L) (T > 30.4) OR (DO < 3)

8 2. How to evaluate? modeling process Scenarios: HN, FN, & FE Air Temperature, Rain, wind, Forcing Data + Water quality Initial Conditions Maps, Bathymetry Run Simulation 3D Model Spatial & Temporal T & DO * Output * key water quality parameters that shape the coolwater fish habitat 8

9 2. How did we do it? Normal year scenario! Setting up the historical normal year scenarios Measured NOAA Normal ( ) 1997 T where a ( C) T a = 7.78 C O & P = 0.78 m extreme P (m) normal

10 2. How did we do it? Future Data! Setting up the future normal year scenarios Change Fields (CF) Future (FN) = HN (2000) + CF Future Extreme (FE) = CF Modeled Historical MIROC3.2 ( Air T CF T a ( C) 0.8 O O = NOAA Normal ( ) / T a = 7.78 C, & P = 0.78 m Measured, HN 0.4 P (m) Modeled Future 10 ( )

11 2. How to evaluate? modeling process Scenarios: HN, FN, & FE Air Temperature, Rain, wind, Forcing Data + Water quality Initial Conditions 3D Model Spatial & Temporal T & DO * Output Maps, Bathymetry R 2 = Run Simulation 11

12 3. Results

13 3. Results Fish habitat as a % of the total lake volume 60% Good Growth Restricted Growth Lethal 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Note ratios HN (5:9:1) FU (4:4:1) FE (2:4:1)

14 3. Results Coolwater Fish Habitat KEY WQ Parameters Comparison of modeled seasonally averaged of water temperature ( C) and dissolved oxygen (mgl -1 ) profiles at West Upper Bay of the study area under historical normal, future normal, and future extreme climate scenarios.

15 3. Results: Thermocline (mixing zone) HN FN FE Winter re-set & well mixed +49% -17% WWWW >4.5 ms -1 WWWW < 4 ms -1 X 15

16 3. Results: Coolwater fish habitat spatial & temporal evaluation top 5 m & horizontal HN FU a) Distance (km) b) Distance (km) Distance (km) June Jun Jul. 29 July-3 Aug. 1-7 Sep. FE c) Distance (km)

17 1. What did we learn? Results: Coolwater fish habitat spatial & temporal evaluation Deepest point of the study area (West Upper Bay) HN a) Depth (m) FU b) Depth (m) RG RG GG L GG L FE c) Depth (m) RG GG Most changes in the top 5 m L Total separation of GG habitat with no refuge Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 17

18 4. Why does it matter? So we can predict the fish habitat with fine spatial and temporal resolutions we can then bring about innovative and targeted fish management So we can plan for future - where lake managers will be able: to forecast the spatial and temporal locations of fish refuge during stressed or lethal conditions, or to provide permanent or temporary refuge during suitable habitat separations - important considerations for lake managers

19 Hope: Habitat Movies to assist decision makers

20 3D modeling and prediction of coolwater fish habitat under changing climate Thank You Q&A Shahram Missaghi Water Resources Team; University of Minnesota Extension th Street W.; Farmington, MN Miki Hondzo Professor of Civil, Environmental, and Geo- Engineering; St. Anthony Falls Laboratory 2 Third Avenue SE, Minneapolis, MN William Herb Research Associate; St. Anthony Falls Laboratory 2 Third Avenue SE, Minneapolis, MN Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.

21 Protecting Two-Story Lakes: A Battle against Phosphorus and Climate Change Hans Holmberg, LimnoTech October 17, 2017 Minnesota Water Resources Conference

22 Acknowledgments Gary Pulford, Courte Oreilles Lake Association (COLA), Dan Tyrolt, LCO Tribal Conservation Dept., Dendy Lofton, Ph.D. and Ben Crary, LimnoTech,

23 Lake Lac Courte Oreilles (LCO)

24 The LCO watershed Primarily forested and open water <10% agricultural and developed

25 Two-Story Lakes

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28 So, what s the matter?

29 Coldwater habitat has been pinched too far resulting in fish kills August 2016

30 Stressors: Increasing phosphorus concentrations

31 Number of Days in Growing Season Stressors: Changing climate

32 Site-specific criteria needed to protect LCO coldwater fish How much oxygen? How cool of temps? How much space? For how long? What level of phosphorus to support?

33 What do we know about these fishes? Cisco Ideal temperatures F, mortality around 73 F * Can survive in dissolved oxygen of 3-5 mg/l, but suboptimal * Lake Whitefish like similar DO but cooler temps Upper limit around 66 F * WDNR considering a habitat criterion as maintaining a band of water of at least 1 meter that is: at or below the acceptable temperature; and at or above the acceptable dissolved oxygen * Jacobson P.C., H.G. Stefan and D.L. Pereira Coldwater Fish Oxythermal Habitat in Minnesota Lakes: Influences Of Total Phosphorus, July Air Temperature, and Relative Depth. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 67(12),

34 Assessing habitat bands at different temperatures and DO Amount of habitat at 66 F and 6 mg/l DO

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36 Is there a simple way to relate coldwater habitat conditions to phosphorus? Estimate future hypolimnetic oxygen demand (HOD) based on relative change in phosphorus HOD future / HOD present = (TP future /TP present ) 0.478* HOD future = HOD present (TP future /TP present ) *Chapra. S.C. and R. P. Canale Long-Term Phenomenological Model of Phosphorus and Oxygen For Stratified Lakes. Wat. Res. Vol. 25, No. 6, pp

37 We can estimate HOD from dissolved oxygen trend in hypolimnion

38 What is new dissolved oxygen profile at lower phosphorus? Adjust the dissolved oxygen deficit profile towards early season conditions relative to the predicted change in HOD DO defict_future = HOD future / HOD present DO deficit_present

39 Start with dissolved oxygen prior to stratification Dissolved oxygen at start of season

40 Adjust critical time deficit Dissolved oxygen at critical time Dissolved oxygen at start of season Temperature at critical time Dissolved oxygen at phosphorus goal

41 Lower TP leads to increased coldwater habitat At 10 µg/l TP West Basin gains 343 Olympic sized swimming pools (at ~660,000 gallons each) of suitable habitat at critical conditions, a 19% increase; Central Basin gains 94 pools, a 7% increase; and Lower TP means more room for cisco and whitefish East Basin gains 1,720 pools, a 69% increase

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43 Lessons learned Can t beat having good data Plan, fund, get the data, tell the story, repeat Lakes are unique and complex Look under the hood Regulatory changes are a hassle Persevere Two-story lakes are a gem Let s not let them slip away!

44 Hans Holmberg LimnoTech Questions?

45 Existing Criteria to protect LCO Total phosphorus growing season average of 15 µg/l in all main basins 40 µg/l in Musky Bay Chlorophyll-a growing season average of 10 µg/l Dissolved oxygen not defined in rule Wisconsin Consolidated Assessment Listing Methodology (WisCALM) unclear Outstanding Resource Water

46 Well excess algae is a problem for recreation

47 And low oxygen is a problem for musky reproductive success

48 What happens in Musky Bay, doesn t stay in Musky Bay

49 What happens in Musky Bay, doesn t stay in Musky Bay

50 So, how will we get there?

51 Where is the phosphorus coming from? Total Annual Phosphorus Load = 5,178 lbs

52 Preliminary Phosphorus Reductions to Meet LCO SSC Loading Source Baseline Load (lbs) Allowable Load to Meet SSC Reduction Needed to Meet SSC (%) (%) Grindstone Creek Osprey Creek Whitefish Creek Direct Drainage Areas 1,933 1, Cranberry Bogs Atmospheric Deposition Musky Bay Excess Internal Load Total 5,178 3,751 28

53 How are we going to make reductions? Shoreline/riparian landowners Septic systems Shoreline buffers In-lake management Curly leaf pondweed Sediment treatment Agriculture Forestry Rural residential Cranberry bogs

54 The regulatory side of things 2014: WDNR listed Musky Bay as impaired 2014: COLA developed phosphorus TMDL with site-specific whole lake target WDNR rejected requires site-specific criteria 2016: COLA requests all of LCO be listed as impaired due to depleted dissolved oxygen WDNR rejected developing new criteria for two-story fisheries 2016: COLA develops phosphorus SSC and requests emergency rulemaking WDNR rejects in process of rulemaking for SSC development 2016: COLA files for judicial review 2017: Settlement agreement for SSC development Governor and Natural Resources Board approval 150 days for WDNR to develop SSC (~March 2018)

55 Engagement Strategies for Climate Resilience Planning at Multiple Scales Leslie Yetka - Freshwater Society

56 Hurricane Irma

57 Resilience Workshops Jan/Feb 2017 Community Participants Bloomington Edina Hopkins Riley Purgatory Bluff Creek Watershed District Participatory Planning 1. Identify Climate Hazards 2. Determine Vulnerabilities and Strengths 3. Prioritize Community Actions

58 Sense of Urgency # Responses Not at All Slightly Moderately Very Extremely

59 Identify Climate Hazards

60 Intense Rain Extreme Heat Create a Community Climate Hazard Profile Four top hazards identified by each community Severe Storms/Wind Warming Lows

61 Identify Vulnerabilities and Strengths

62 Planning Across Community Sectors Infrastructure Natural Resources Societal

63 Participatory Mapping

64 Prioritize Community Actions

65 Community-Specific Strategies to Address Systems at Risk Infrastructure Natural Resources Create energy plan Address flooding in prone areas Increase durability of roadways Educate citizens about aquifers Inventory areas for potential wildfire risk Fund urban forest management plan Societal Leverage volunteer services in time of need Ensure medical facilities are staffed and accessible Establish transportation for disabled people

66 Example -Natural Resources: Education Policies Educate public on climate change impacts on local environment Projects Review regulations, codes, and policies to encourage protection and conservation Demonstrate and incentivize land management practices that protect water and wildlife habitat Maintain, diversify and increase urban forest canopy Invest in green space Monitor degrading natural systems such as wetlands Reduce erosion risks for infrastructure and developed areas

67 Edina Report

68 Benefits and Lessons Learned Builds relationships Creates shared knowledge base Supports decisions made Existing data good enough Provide context sense of urgency Invitation, invitation, invitation! Location, location, location! Good facilitator training Report back to the community Scale matters

69 Project Partners Riley-Purgatory-Bluff Creek Watershed District Nine Mile Creek Watershed District Freshwater Society Barr Engineering Metropolitan Council Minnesota Pollution Control Agency Humphrey School of Public Affairs The Nature Conservancy

70 Questions? Leslie Yetka