Scenarios, Modelling and Analysis of Low Carbon Society for India

Transcription

1 Scenarios, Modelling and Analysis of Low Carbon Society for India P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented in the 13th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan, February 17-18, 28

2 Base Scenario

3 Demographic Drivers Population (Million) Year: 2 Pop: 121 Million % % Male Female % % 2.15% Growth Rate Age Age 15-6 years Yrs Male Female Population (million) Population (Million) Labor Force (Million) Year: 25 Pop: 1593 Million % % 2.54% Growth Rate % % Age 15-6 years Age Yrs Male Female M ale Female Population (Million) Population (million)

4 Drivers of Economic Growth Human Capital R&D High Labor Supply Increasing Education Migration (intra & inter county) Increasing Government/ Private Expenditure International Knowledge Flows R&D Collaborations Technology Infrastructures Learning, transfers, deployment Behavioral Changes High Savings Rate Changing Lifestyles Governance Institutions Laws Policies Savings Rate??

5 Base Scenario GDP Base Year 25= Annual Growth Rate 25-5: 7.3% Annual Growth Rate 25-32: 8% GDP US $/person Per Capita Income Base Case Assumptions: Summary 1. GDP Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from Economy: 24 times larger than Population 2: 121 Million 25: 1593 Million ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 55 CO2) 4. Radiative Forcing: 4.7 W/m2

6 LCS Scenarios: Alternate Paradigms Scenarios: Two Visions of Low Carbon Society Achieving Stabilization of GHG Concentration by: 1.Climate Centric Actions at the Margin of the Conventional Development Path Policies: Global Carbon Price over Conventional Development Path 2.Aligning Climate Actions with the Mainstream Development Actions Policies: Sustainable Development Path + Stabilization What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling international commitments?

7 Modeling

8 Integrated Modeling Framework Integrated Modelling Framework DATABASES Socio-Economic, - Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints AIM CGE Model End Use Demand Model ANSWER-MARKAL Model AIM SNAPSHOT Model AIM Strategic Database (SDB)

9 Base Scenario Analysis

10 Energy and Carbon: Base Case Assumptions From 25-25: Annual Economic Growth: 7.2% Annual Population Growth:.9% Absolute Growth in 25 over 25 Economy 23 times Population 1.56 times M toe 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Commercial Biomass Non Com Biomass Energy Million Ton CO2 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Carbon Emissions 5 1, Annual Improvement From 25-25: Energy Intensity: 3.14 (%) Carbon Intensity: 3.7 (%) Decarbonization of Energy: -.7 (%) Results: Energy and Carbon Intensity Ratios: 25 over 25 Energy Intensity:.249 Carbon Intensity:.257 Decarbonization of Energy: -3.1 (%)

11 Investment in Energy: Base Case Energy Investments (21-23) Investment (US $ Billion) Share of Energy Investments (21-23) $ 1173 billion $ 1173 billion Oil & Oil Gas & Gas 21% 21% Coal Oil & Gas Power Coal Coal 4% 4% Power Power 75% 75%

12 LCS Scenario Analysis

13 LCS Scenarios: Alternate Paradigms Scenarios: Two Visions of Low Carbon Society Achieving Stabilization of GHG Concentration by: 1. Climate Centric Actions at the Margin of the Conventional Development Path Policies: Global Carbon Price over Conventional Development Path 2. Aligning Climate Actions with the Mainstream Development Actions Policies: Sustainable Development Path + Stabilization What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling international commitments?

14 Indian LCS Scenario Assumptions LCS Scenarios assume 55 ppmv CO2e Concentration (or 47 CO2 Concentration) 3.4 W/m2 3 o C temperature increase) Two pathways of LCS produce identical cumulative CO2 emissions from 25 to 25 LCS Vision 1 scenario has same GDP and Population as in Base Case (7.2% from 25 to 5) LCS Vision 2 is a Sustainability driven scenario with population & GDP lower than in Base Case (6.9% from 25 to 5) but include variety of interventions in line with sustainable development paradigm

15 LCS Dimensions: Objectives/Interventions Economic Development (Quantity and Quality of Growth) Enhanced Investment in climate actions Mitigation Adaptation Climate change Technologies R&D/ IPR Technology transfer Climate change Risks Adaptation costs Climate Goals (e.g. 45 ppmv CO 2 e or 2 O C) Equity/ Fairness of global climate regime Mechanisms/ Instruments to manage climate change Direct (Climate) vs. Indirect (Development) Market vs. CC + Non-Market

16 Low Carbon Society Transitions Million Ton CO2 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Others Device Efficiency Renewable Energy Electricity (Fuel Switch) CCS LCS Vision 1: transition with conventional path and carbon price High Carbon Price Climate Focused Technology Push Top-down/Supply-side actions Carbon Tax $/tco2 LCS Vision 2: aligning climate actions with sustainable development actions Low Carbon Price Bottom-up/Demand-side actions Behavioural change Demand-side technology pull Diverse Technology portfolio Million Ton CO2 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Others CCS Transport Mode Urban Planning Consumption Recycling Material Substitutions Appliance Efficiency Renewable Energy Building Electricity (Fuel Switch)

17 Demand Reduction & Substitution 7 3 Conventional Development 2 Sustainable Demand (Million Ton) 4 Society Conventional Development 15 1 Sustainable 5 2 Society Conventional Development 4 Sustainable Society Paper Cement 8 5 Demand (Trillion Lumen hrs) Demand (Million (Million Ton) Ton) Demand 6 Demand (Million Ton) 1 Steel Steel Lighting 2 Conventional Development Sustainable 1 2 Society

18 Energy Mix in 25 1,2 Base Case Total Energy Demand Share of Renewable 1, 8 Conventional Dev. + Tax Sustainability Base 34 Mtoe C+T 2945 Mtoe Sust. 24 Mtoe Base 24 % C+T 34 % Sust. 47 % Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Biomass Renewable Sustainable LCS would reduce competition & conflicts for energy resources; thus contributing to peaceful transition to prosperous global socio-economic order in the 21 st Century

19 Energy and Carbon Intensities 5 4 Base CI CT CI LCS CI 5 4 Carbon Intensities (CI) EI (toe/million INR) CI (tco2/million INR) 1 1 Energy Intensities (EI)

20 Co-benefits of Regional Co-operation MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability Co-benefits of South-Asia Integrated Energy-Water Market Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 21 to 23 $ Billion % GDP Bahrain Qatar!. Iran United Arab Emirates!. Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan!. Herat!. Afghanistan Chotila Ѻ Ѻ Oman Legend Important Places Existing Gas Pipelines Ѻ Gas Pipelines under construction Proposed Gas Pipelines Existing LNG terminals Proposed LNG terminals Existing Gas Basin Proposed Gas Basin Saudi Arabia Yemenen Somalia South-Pars Bandar-e-Abbas Iranshahar!. Delaram!.!. Kandhar!.!. Khuzdar Quetta Karachi Pakistan!. Nangal Ludhiana BathindaSangrur Ambala Multan Panvel Pune Maldives Sonipat Delhi Faridabad Mahesana Kalol Ujjain Jhabua NadiadAnand Rajkot Bharuch Olpad Surat Valsad Dadra ChiptunGuhagar Ratnagiri F Gadag Kochi Bareilly Nepal Shahjahanpur AuraiyaKanpur Gwalior Jagdishpuri Jhansi Kota Vijaypur Guna Solapur India Nellore F Palmaner Hassan Chennai Mangalore Chittoor Bangalore Coimbatore Tiruchchirappalli Kayankulam Tutikorin Sri Lanka Kokinada Vijaywada Patna Gaya Vishakhapattnam China Bhutan Dispur Bangladesh Kolkata Myanmar (Burma) Laos Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Energy 6 Exa Joule CO 2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28.8 SO 2 5 Million Ton 1.3 Total Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits More Water for Food Production (MDG1) 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7) Flood control (MDG1&7) Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)

21 CO2 Emissions & Price Trajectories 7 CO2 Emissions: Global and India 6 Base Case assumes global 65 ppmv CO2e stabilization Index 2 = India Base Case India Carbon Tax (55 ppmv CO2e) 2 1 Global Base Case 55 ppmv CO2e 12 CO2 Price Price CO2 (US $/tco2) Conventional Society Sustainable Society Base Case 25

22 Income Effect and Co-benefits 1 Emissions and Income 14 CO2 Emissions (Million TCO2) SO2 Emissions in BAU CO2 Emissions in BAU LCS CO2 Emissions GDP Per Capita 2 = SO2 Emissions (Million TSO2) Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions Base Case Million tso Conventional Path + High Carbon Price Sustainable Development + Low Carbon Tax

23 Kaya Analysis of LCS Scenarios D E/D C/E C'/C Total 1% 8% 6% 883% 678% vs 2's 4% 2% % 279% 197% 5% 171% -2% -4% -315% -316% -6% -471% -8% -715% 25 CT Case 25 SS Case

24 Sustainable Low Carbon Development Aim Drivers Interventions Targets Low Carbon Society Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability Technological Social/Institutional Management Aligning Markets Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Long-term Vision Avoid Lock-ins National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets Modify Preferences Back-casting

25 Conclusions Modeling Integrated Modeling System with AIM/CGE, MARKAL & SNAPSHOT models Scenarios Climate Change at Margin versus Mainstream High Carbon Tax versus Sustainable Development Policies Analysis Kaya Identity Factors Technology roadmap to LCS Incentives and Infrastructures for Behavioral Changes Sustainability policies for altering development pathway Climate-centric policies to contribute to cost-effective global stabilization pathway and adaptation

26 Thank you