What is the Rationale?

Transcription

1 Choosing between Low or High Carbon Intensive Development Patterns: What is the Rationale? P.R. Shukla Indian Institute t of Management Ahmedabad, India Symposium on: Transition towards low carbon societies in a changing world Organized by: International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCS-RNet) November 29, 211, Durban, South Africa

2 Presentation Agenda Low Carbon Society: The Framing Low Carbon Society Perspectives Mapping Low Carbon Scenarios on a new Track Aligning Development & Climate Actions Regional Cooperation and Coordination Sector: E.g. Transport & Infrastructures t Cities: Mitigation & Climate Proofing Conclusions

3 Low Carbon Society: Framing Conventional: Climate Centric Paradigm Ideal World Universal Carbon Market Perfect Energy Market Flexible Supply / Inflexible Demand Rational Decision-makers Zero-Sum Game (Competition and Conflicts) Externalities and Risk Framework Sustainability: Development & Climate Real World Fragmented Carbon Market Distorted Energy Markets Constrained Decision-makers Flexible Demand and Supply Multiple Dividends (Cooperation & Co-benefits) Innovations and Opportunity Framework

4 Low Carbon Scenarios Mapping Transitions Demographic; Urban/Rural; Income; Behavior (e.g. consumption); Institutions Economics: Paradigm Shift Cooperation & Co-benefits (e.g. energy security, AQ) Finance (discount rates) Market vs. Social Value of Carbon Policies Technology: Infrastructures; Targeted R&D + industry Coordinate policies to gain co-benefits Climate Proofing (Carbon price + Adaptation)

5 Integrated Multi-Model Structure Soft Linked Integrated Model Systems (SLIMS) DATABASES Socio Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment Socio -Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai nts nd Mode el End Use Dem mand End Us se Dema Model GCAM IIM/AIM CGE AIM CGE Model ANSWER MARKAL -MARKAL Model Model AIM ExSS AIM SNAPSHOT Model (SDB) AIM Strate egic Databa ase Scenari io Datab ase Sustainab bility Indi cators Da atabase

6 Mitigation Options: Climate-centric Mill lion Ton CO2 8, Other Baseline Emissions 6, CCS 4, Device Efficiency Fossil Switch Nuclear 2, Renewable Emissions i (for 2 O Target) Carbon Price ($) Climate-centric Approach: transition of conventional path with carbon price High Carbon Price Climate Focused Technology Push Top-down/Supply-side actions Technology Co-operation operation Areas Energy Efficiency Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro Nuclear/CCS

7 Mitigation Options: Sustainability 8, illion Ton CO2 M 6, 4, Fossil Switch CCS Transport Reduced Consumption Recycling Material Substitutions u s Device Efficiency Renewable Energy 2, Emissions (for 2 O Target) O Building Carbon Price ($) Sustainability Approach: aligning climate and sustainable development actions Lower Carbon Price Bottom-up/Demand-side actions Behavioural change Diverse Technology portfolio Technology Co-operation operation Areas Transport Infrastructure Technologies 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy Process Technologies Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes

8 Pathways to 2 O C Stabilization: Aligning Development & Climate Actions (with illustrations ti from assessment for India) Regional Cooperation and Coordination Role of Sector Policies and Actions: E.g. Transport Role of Cities: Mitigation & Climate Proofing

9 Co-benefits of Energy Choices Co-benefits of South-Asia Integrated Energy-Water Market Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 21 to 23 $ Billion % GDP Energy 6 Exa Joule CO 2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28.8 SO 2 5 Million Ton 1.3 Total Bahrain Qatar Saudi Arabia Iran United Arab Emirates Yemen Somalia South-Pars Oman Bandar-e-Abbas Legend Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Iranshahar Herat Afghanistan Delaram Kandhar Khuzdar Quetta Karachi Pakistan Important Places Existing Gas Pipelines Gas Pipelines under construction Proposed Gas Pipelines Existing LNG terminals Proposed LNG terminals Existing Gas Basin Proposed Gas Basin Ѻ Ѻ Nangal Ludhiana BathindaSangrur Ambala Multan Sonipat Delhi Faridabad Mahesana Kalol Ujjain Jhabua NadiadAnand Rajkot Chotila Bharuch Olpad Surat Valsad Dadra Ѻ Panvel Pune ChiptunGuhagar Ratnagiri Maldives Bareilly Nepal Shahjahanpur AuraiyaKanpur Gwalior Jagdishpuri Jhansi Patna Kota Vijaypur Guna Gaya Solapur Gadag Kochi India Nellore F Palmaner Hassan Chennai Mangalore Chittoor Bangalore F Coimbatore Tiruchchirappalli Kayankulam Tutikorin Kokinada Vijaywada Sri Lanka Vishakhapattnam China Bhutan Dispur Bangladesh Kolkata Myanmar (Burma) Laos Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Spill-over & Co-Benefits More Water for Food Production (MDG1) 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7) Flood control (MDG1&7) Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)

10 Linking Global Best Practices with National Policies Sustainability Scenario Avoid Lock-ins (Infrastructure) Transport Energy Co-benefits Energy Security Air Quality Water Security Social Value of Carbon Transport Transitions ii Demand Side Supply Side Conventional Strategies EV Coal + CCS CO 2 = from Transport ICT BRT/Metro Land Use Modal Shift Renewable 2 O C Stabilization with Sustainability

11 Macro Indicators of Low Carbon Transport Economic Carbon Intensity of Transport Energy Security Transport Infrastructure Investment Total Cost of Transport Social Access to Transport Transport Subsidies Food Security Environmental Air Pollution Water: Safety Pollution & Stress Technical Vehicle (fleet) Energy & Emissions Efficiency Carbon Content of Electricity Transport Demand Substitution Operational Efficiency of Transport Infrastructure Sustainable National Investment in Meta / Urban Form Logistics Grid Strategic and Structure Transport Sector Innovations

12 Infrastructures to Overcome Lock-ins Coal by Wire Composition of Railway Freight Traffic (%): 21 5% 4% 1% 3% 8% 5% 21% 44% Coal Iron Ore, Steel & Pig Iron Cement Foodgrains Fertilizers Petroleum Oil Lubricants Container Service Others

13 Konkan Railway: Climate Proofing A. Increase in mean Probability of Occurrence Present Climate More number of days with >2 mm rainfall Less number of days with >2 mm rainfall Future Climate Very high number of days with >2 mm rainfall ility of rence Probabi Occurr Light and spread-over rain Present Climate Less number of days with >2 Very less mm rainfall number of days with >2 mm rainfall Number of days with > 2mm rainfall B. Increase in variance Future Climate Heavy and concentrated rain More number of days with >2 mm rainfall Very high number of days with >2 mm rainfall Probability of Occurrence Light and spread-over rain Present Climate Less number of days with >2 mm rainfall Number of days with > 2mm rainfall C. Increase in mean and variance Future Climate Heavy and concentrated rain More number of days with ith>2 mm rainfall Very high number of days with >2 mm rainfall Light and spread-over rain Number of days with > 2mm rainfall Heavy and concentrated rain

14 City Planning: Co-benefits Ahmedabad City: Pop. In Million Per Capita CO2 Emissions (Ton) BAU 235 LCS 25 BaU 25 LCS Co-benefits: Transport Transitions Co-benefits: Water per capita (ML/million) 1 2W Train Bus Large Passenger Vehicle Car & 3 W BaU 235 LCS 25 BaU 25 LCS Base WECC

15 Water Availability (DELHI) Existing and Envisaged Sources of Water No Climate Change Climate Change SRES B2 Water Supply from Various Sources Water Supply from Various Sources Under Climate Change Year Yamuna river bed potential 55 NCR Augumentation (CGWB) 2 15 Additional Plan Sub Surface Water 55 Recycling of Waste Water 2 Saving of Seepage Upper Ganga Canal BBMB 8 8 Yamuna River Year Yamuna river bed potential NCR Augumentation (CGWB) Additional Plan Sub Surface Water Recycling of Waste Water Saving of Seepage Upper Ganga Canal BBMB Yamuna River

16 Co-benefits: Energy Security & Air Quality Co benefits: Energy Security (Mtoe1,6 rgy Dema and e) Prim mary Ene 1,6 1, PE Demand Base 2825 CT 29 SS 227 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable Milli ion tso Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions Base Case Sustainability Scenario Conventional Scenario

17 % Social vs. Market Value of Carbon 25 Social Value of Carbon 2 Price (US $/tco2 2) O C Climate-centric Mitigation Scenario Base Scenario 2 O C Sustainability Scenario GDP Loss for India 2 O C Climate-centric Mitigation Scenario 5 2 O C Sustainability %4 Scenario

18 Conclusions: Choice of Development Path Conventional development path is untenable Alternate Development Paths are feasible & advisable Sequencing may favor emerging countries to align development and climate actions Artificial separation of baseline and climate change actions is not helping Act early (in mitigation & adaptation) to avoid lockins Social value of carbon is lower than market value Thank you