Low Carbon Scenarios for India: Modeling and New Scenarios Framework

Transcription

1 Low Carbon Scenarios for India: Modeling and New Scenarios Framework P. R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented in the 14th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan, February 15-16, 2009

2 India Economy-Energy-Emissions Trends 300 Indices, Base:1980= Electricity Consumption GDP at factor cost Energy consumption Energy/person Population Energy Intensity of GDP Data Sources: CMIE, CEA, Census 2001, Economic Surveys and Government of India Ministry reports

3 Modeling Framework

4 Integrated Modeling Framework Integrated Modelling Framework DATABASES Socio-Economic, - Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints AIM CGE Model End Use Demand Model ANSWER-MARKAL Model AIM SNAPSHOT Model AIM Strategic Database (SDB)

5 AIM CGE Framework Feedback Production Sector (4) Intermediate Demand (X) Pollution Value Added Output Environment Production factor market (K,L) Endowment (K*, L*) Pollution Household Sector Produced Goods (Y) market Final Demand (C) Feedback Source : Masui, T, 2005

6 India AIM CGE Data Structure 1. Indian I/O Table ( ) 115 X 115 Commodity 2. Aggregated to 8 Sector X 8 Sector 5 Energy Sectors Coal, Oil, Gas, Nuclear, Renewable 3 Production Sectors Agriculture, Manufacturing, Services 3. Exogenous Inputs Carbon Tax trajectory Fossil fuel prices

7 Energy Economy Environment System ECONOMY MINING IMPORT EXPORT COAL N. GAS OIL BIOMASS NUCLEAR RENEWABLE 45 TECHNOLOGY ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION COAL GAS HYDRO NUCLEAR SOLAR ENERGY PROCESSING PETROLEUM REFINERY 75 CAPITAL ENDUSE DEVICES PUMP TRACTOR FURNACE MOTOR LIGHT BULB COOLER BUS TRAIN STOVE FAN 90 AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY 35 COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT RESIDENTIAL EMISSIONS ENVIRONMENT

8 End-Use Demand Projection Model Macro Economic Models Overall GDP Projections Expert Opinions Sector Share Forecasting Sector Elasticity Module End-use Demand

9 AIM SNAPSHOT Base Year CO2 emission Emission factors Primary Energy Transformation efficiency Target Year CO2 emission Emission factors Primary Energy Transformation efficiency Final Energy Energy use efficiency Services Final Energy Energy use efficiency Services

10 Base Case Projections

11 Base Scenario: Assumptions Base Scenario 1. GDP Ann. Growth Rate: 7.2% from Economy: 23 times larger than Population 2000: 1021 Million 2050: 1593 Million ppmv CO2e Concentration Stabilization (or 550 CO2) W/m2 Radiative Forcing Savings Rate?? Base Year 2005= Annual Growth Rate : 7.3% Annual Growth Rate : 8% GDP US $/person Per Capita Income

12 Future Energy Mix: India M t o e 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Commercial Biomass Non Com Biomass 1,

13 Future Carbon Emissions: India 8,000 7,000 6,000 Million Ton CO2 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,

14 LCS through Conventional Climate Centric Vision

15 Alternate Development Visions Stabilization Target and Visions 1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption: 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration o C temperature increase (50:50) 2. Two Development Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050) 1. Conventional Vision: Climate Actions at Margin of Conventional Development path 2. Sustainability Vision: Aligning Climate Actions with Mainstream Development Actions What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments?

16 LCS via Climate Centric Actions Aim Drivers Interventions Target Allocation of Rights Carbon Market Universal Participation Market Structure/ Rules Global Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilization Technologies Remove Market Barriers Cooperative R&D Tech Transfer Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss Competition/ Trade Energy Resources Energy-Mix Mandates Modify Preferences Forecasting

17 Vision I: Climate Centric Scenario 1. Top-down/Supply-side actions 2. High Carbon Price as main instrument 3. Climate Focused Technology Push 7,000 6,000 5,000 Base Others CCS Million Ton CO2 4,000 3,000 2,000 Device Efficiency Renewable Energy Electricity (Fuel Switch) 1,000 CT

18 LCS with Sustainability

19 India: National Climate Change Action Plan 8 National Missions: 1. Solar Energy (100 MW PV/yr; 1000 MW Thermal by 2017) 2. Enhanced energy efficiency (10000 MW saving by 2012) 3. Sustainable habitat 4. Water Sector (20% water use efficiency improvement) 5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system 6. A Green India (6 Mil. Hectare afforestation; Forest cover from 23 to 33%) 7. Sustainable agriculture 8. Strategic knowledge for climate change

20 LCS with Sustainability Aim Drivers Interventions Targets Low Carbon Society Innovations Co-benefits Sustainability Technological Social/Institutional Management Aligning Markets Win/Win Options Shared Costs/Risks Long-term Vision Avoid Lock-ins National Socio-economic Objectives and Targets Global Climate Change Objectives and Targets Modify Preferences Back-casting

21 Vision II: Sustainability Scenario 1. Low Carbon Price 2. Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions 3. Behavioural Change 4. Diverse Technology Portfolio Million Ton CO2 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Others CCS Transport Mode Urban Planning Consumption Recycling Material Substitutions Appliance Efficiency Renewable Energy Building Electricity (Fuel Switch) 1,

22 Sustainable Cities: Planning and Infrastructures Land-use Planning Building Choices Infrastructures Service Networks Technologies for Train Corridors Bus Rapid Transport System

23 Dematerialization Steel Cement Steel 600 Conventional Development Sustainable Society Development Sustainable Society Development 400 Sustainable Society Transport Conventional 5 Conventional Paper 35 Demand (Million Ton) Demand (Million Ton) 400 Demand (Trillion Ton-Kms) Demand (Million (Million Ton) Ton) Demand Conventional Development Sustainable Society

24 Co-benefits of Energy Choices MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability Co-benefits of South-Asia Integrated Energy-Water Market Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030 $ Billion % GDP Energy 60 Exa Joule CO 2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton SO 2 50 Million Ton Total Iran South-Pars!. Bandar-e-Abbas!. Bahrain Qatar United Arab Emirates Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Iranshahar!. Herat!. Afghanistan Delaram!. Valsad Oman Legend Important Places Existing Gas Pipelines Gas Pipelines under construction Proposed Gas Pipelines Existing LNG terminals Proposed LNG terminals Existing Gas Basin Saudi Arabia Yemen Somalia Proposed Gas Basin Kandhar Nangal!. Ludhiana Bathinda Ambala Quetta Sangrur!. Multan!. Pakistan Sonipat Delhi Faridabad Bareilly Nepal Khuzdar!. Shahjahanpur AuraiyaKanpur Gwalior Jagdishpuri Jhansi Kota Karachi Guna!. Vijaypur Mahesana Kalol Ujjain Jhabua NadiadAnand Rajkot India Chotila Bharuch Olpad Surat Dadra Panvel Pune ChiptunGuhagar Ratnagiri Maldives Gadag F Solapur Nellore F Palmaner Hassan Chennai Mangalore Chittoor Bangalore Coimbatore Tiruchchirappalli Kochi Kayankulam Tutikorin Sri Lanka Patna Gaya Vishakhapattnam Kokinada Vijaywada China Bhutan Dispur Bangladesh Kolkata Myanmar (Burma) Laos Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits More Water for Food Production (MDG1) 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7) Flood control (MDG1&7) Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)

25 LCS with Lower Carbon Prices 120 CO2 Price 100 Price CO2 (US $/tco2) Conventional Society Sustainable Society Base Case 2050

26 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

27 NANGAL DAM ROPAR H /W RENUKA DAM TAJEW ALA H/W D AD A HU D AM KESHAU DAM H A R ID W A R H /W M U R A D N A G AR O FFTA K E T E H R I D AM D W A RKA W TP (40 MGD) N A NG LO I W TP (40 MGD) B A W A N A W TP (20 MGD) HAIDERP UR W W I (100 M GD) HAIDERPUR WW II (100 M GD ) CHANDRAW AL WW II (55 MGD) C H AN DRAW AL W W I (55 M G D) W AZIRABA D WW (120 MGD) O KHLA W TP (20 MGD) OK HL A G W TP (12 MGD) S O N IA VIHA R WTP (140 MGD) B HA GIRA THI WTP (100 MGD) Water Availability: DELHI Population and Water Demand BHAKRA CANAL LEKHWAR DAM NARWANA BRANCH 45 BHAKRA MAIN BRANCH EASTERN YAMUNA CANAL WESTERN YAMUNA CANAL 40 RIVER YAMUNA 35 UPPER GANGA CANAL W A Z IR A BA D B A R A G E 30 Population Water Demand BBMB: 140 MGD R A W W A TE R A R R A N G E M E N T Yamuna: 310 MGD Ganga: 100 MGD DELHI DISTRIBUTORY PARALLEL CHANNEL W A Z IR A BA D B A R A G E 15 Ground: 100 MGD HINDON CUT RIVER YAMUNA Population (Millions) Water Demand (MGD) O K H L B A R A G E Year AGRA CANAL GURGAON CANAL

28 Water Availability: DELHI Existing and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi (without Climate Change) 2500 Water Supply from Various Sources Yamuna river bed potential NCR Augmentation (CGWB) Additional Plan Sub Surface Water Recycling of Waste Water Saving of Seepage Upper Ganga Canal BBMB Yamuna River Year

29 Water Availability: DELHI Existing and Envisaged Water Sources for Delhi under Climate Change 2500 Water Supply from Various Sources Under Climate Change Year Yamuna river bed potential NCR Augmentation (CGWB) Additional Plan Sub Surface Water Recycling of Waste Water Saving of Seepage Upper Ganga Canal BBMB Yamuna River

30 LCS Scenarios and Modeling: Next Plans

31 Sustainability: Domains, Elements and Actions Sustainability Domains Domain Typologies Key Elements (Examples) Actions/Instruments (Examples) How to sustain & enhance capital stocks in interest of present & future generations? Capital Stocks Natural Man-made Human Social Natural Resources, Ecology Buildings, Infrastructures Education, Health Institutions, Social Networks Conservation, Tax Design, Standards Investments, Access Awareness, Media How do human and natural systems evolve? How do they interact? Systems Human (e.g. Food System) Natural (e.g. Environment) Diets, Technologies Climate Change, Bio-diversity Water Management, Trade Cap & Trade, Eco-funds What are the drivers of key socio-politicoeconomic development processes? Processes/ Institutions Globalization Urbanization Industrialization Trade, Migration Urban Planning, Regulations Industry Structure, Innovation Market Reforms, Tariffs Zoning, User Charges Competition, R&D How can preferences be shaped & aligned with sustainability goals? Preferences Public Private/Personal Community Rights, Equity, Public Goods Lifestyle, Savings Norms, Customs, Traditions Social Security Choices, Freedoms Dialogue, Media

32 LCS Scenarios: Next Step Scenarios LCS Scenarios with Stabilization Targets Baseline Conventional Sustainability Stabilization Targets Radiative Forcing W/m Geography Level Global Regional National Global Regional National

33 Next Plan: LCS Scenarios with Sustainability LCS Scenarios to focus on: Behavioral Changes, Innovations and Co-benefits Up-front decisions to avoid long-term lock-ins Sustaining Capital Stocks Natural, Man-made, Human & Social Use Systems Approach for Analysis Integration, Holistic/Long-term Vision, Dynamic Assessment Interventions to influence Drivers of Change Assess and influence Processes Institutions (to reduce transaction costs/risks and to sustain change) Shaping Stakeholder and Societal Preferences Information, Awareness, Debates to arrived at informed choices

34 Next Plan: Modeling LCS with Sustainability Mainstream climate actions in development plans Include sustainability policies in Baseline Pay attention to that avoids lock-ins into high emissions paths Ensure bottom-up actions coordinate with top-down vision and policies Model Co-benefits and Co-operation : Co-benefits as a positive-sum game AIM achieving LCS that meets global target at Low Carbon Price Focus on behavior and drivers that deliver Low Energy and Emissions Future Model exclusive climate-centric actions for stabilization which are needed beyond sustainability policies Model adaptation to residual climate change, though in Low Carbon World climate risks shall be much lower Thank you