TRB Webinar: Energy Solutions. August 19, 2009, 2:00 PM EDT

Transcription

1 TRB Webinar: Energy Solutions August 19, 2009, 2:00 PM EDT

2 Today s moderator and presenters Robert Rosner, University of Chicago, r-rosner@uchicago.edu Dan Bilello, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, dan_bilello@nrel.gov John Heywood, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, jheywood@mit.gov Steven Plotkin, Argonne National Laboratory, splotkin@anl.gov

3 Check out TRB s redesigned website:

4 Upcoming TRB Webinars: Find them at Wednesday, August 26, 2:00 to 3:30 PM EDT Funding Options for Freight Transportation Projects Thursday, September 10, 2:30 to 4:00 PM EDT U.S. Transportation System Scenarios to 2050 in a World Addressing Climate Change Thursday, September 17, 2:00 to 3:30 PM EDT Slope Maintenance and Slide Restoration

5 The U.S. Energy Crisis: Solutions to Meeting the Nation s Energy Needs What should be the centerpiece of a policy of American renewal is blindingly obvious: making a quest for energy independence the moon shot of our generation -- Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, Sept. 23, Robert Rosner, presiding The University of Chicago Dan Bilello, panelist DOE National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) John B. Heywood, panelist Massachusetts Institute of Technology Steven E. Plotkin, panelist DOE Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19, 2009

6 Introducing our panelists: John Heywood is the Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His research interests cover internal combustion engines, automotive technology, energy & transportation, air pollution, and combustion. Dan Bilello is the International and Environmental Studies Group Manager at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. He is a member of the International and Environmental Studies Group in NREL's Strategic Energy Analysis and Applications Center; and his primary research interests are in international energy policy and climate change. Steven Plotkin is a senior staff scientist with Argonne National Laboratory s Center for Transportation Research. His research focuses on analysis of transportation energy efficiency, automobile fuel economy technology and policy. NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

7 Setting the stage: 1. Energy demands, US and world-wide 2. What can be done the energy alternatives: Changing the demands: Conservation, tax policies, efficiency, Changing the supply: Solar Nuclear Wind Biofuels Carbon capture w/ fossil fuels Changing the distribution and use: Grids ( smart, continental, ); public transport; life styles; and the key constraints: Global & local climate impacts Energy security, 3. Why is there so much uncertainty, and what can we do about it? NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

8 The global energy challenge facing us 100 Quadrillion BTU = 100 Quad = TW Figure courtesy DOE/EIA (2009) The common starting point is the global picture of energy consumption. The key insight is that the vast increase in global energy consumption is not driven by human population increases, but rather by sharply increased expectations of living standards in the developing world - China, India, Brazil, NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

9 The challenge - and the energy supply alternatives Demand Fossil Reduction Energy Gap ~ 14 TW by 2050 ~ 33 TW by 2100 (100 Quadrillion BTU = 100 Quad = TW) Nuclear Renewable 10 TW = 10,000 1 GW power plants 1 new power plant/day for 27 years Fusion No single solution Diversity of energy sources required NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

10 Scenarios of mean temperature increase from world-wide human activities A broad range of models based on predicted CO 2 loading of our atmosphere are in broad agreement on the consequences for the increase in globally averaged surface temperature The modeling efforts associated with IPCC 2007 provide a likely range of future globally-averaged surface temperature rise: ~1.1 o C to ~6.4 o C (= ~2 o F to ~11.5 o F) Figure courtesy IPCC NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

11 A local consequence: Illinois climate will effectively migrate south Summer (JJA), by 2095 Figure courtesy Don Wuebbles [UIUC] This picture based on average values of temperature and precipitation - and does not account for variability or special regional aspects. 7

12 These changes in local climate will have measurable non-climate consequence Agriculture (e.g., growing seasons, harvest periods, pests, ) Infrastructure, infrastructure support, viz., Transportation systems (roads, rail, ) Storm water management Water and air quality Health care system needs Parks and lakes: recreation, tourism, Energy use/demands NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

13 Every one of the alternatives faces challenges Demand reduction Fossil Nuclear fission Renewable Nuclear fusion Cannot do it all Social impacts Sequestration? Limited supply? Is there a unifying vision? Economics? Non-proliferation? Spent fuel disposal? Economics? Fundamental science understanding? Distribution? Fundamental science understanding? solar hydro wind digital electronics coal gas communication nuclear fission heat mechanical motion electricity power grid transportation industry fusion fuel cells lighting heating refrigeration NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

14 and is there a way of plausibly analyzing the overall system? Consider a portfolio of competing energy technologies for supplying (for example) base power: coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, solar, wind, biofuels/renewables, For each technology, we would like 1. Reliable (= verified & validated) predictions of performance/capabilities and costs Full accounting of life cycle costs, avoided costs, Projections based on science-based engineering (e.g., must allow analyses to go outside the narrow performance envelope for validated point designs typically defined by today s state of the art engineering) Sizing up the potential impacts of transformational technologies Static and dynamic analysis capability 2. Competitive trade-offs and develop full portfolio analyses (viz., determine an optimal mix of technologies for given constraints) 3. Detailed sensitivity analyses Investment decisions (R&D, technology readiness, ) Critical path analyses Safety and the ultimate dream: to couple these analyses capabilities to climate, social, economic,, factors NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

15 What do we have today? a very personal view Yes on #1 [=Reliable (= verified and validated) predictions of performance/capabilities and costs], for some technologies (e.g., Argonne s GREET & PSAT models) Typically static; a select few are dynamic Typically limited by existing designs (which were used to do V&V), with weak if any reach-back to science-based simulation capabilities Weak (if not totally absent) standards for modeling methodologies, data interchange, module interchange (viz., module interfaces), But we cannot (for example) Credibly compare all existing energy technologies at a systems level (#2) Credibly carry out sensitivity analyses, (#3) Easily compare the results of different modeling efforts Credibly evaluate transformational technology impacts This means, among other things, that Our investment decisions do not have the rigor one might expect We cannot demonstrate that we know how to optimize our energy portfolio NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

16 Where does this leave us? What is the way forward in more rigorous analyses? Comparative economic costs Comparative climate impacts Comparative social impacts Comparative transformational technology needs (and costs) Do we wait, or do we plunge on ahead? How urgent is the need to address the climate change issue? How tolerant are we of mistakes? How risk averse are we or should we be? Can we count on innovation? Do we need a larger vision a national energy policy? How would a national energy policy couple (or not) to the international realm? NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

17 And that brings us to Our Panel Discussion NRC Transportation Research Board Webinar, August 19,

18 The Role of Renewable Energies in Reducing Oil Imports: Status and Prospects Dan Bilello Strategic Energy Analysis Center August 2009 Transportation Research Board NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by The Alliance for Sustainable Energy

19 Total Global New Investment in Clean Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Adjusted for reinvestment. Geared re-investment assumes a 1 year lag between VC/PE/Public Markets funds raised and re-investment in projects. Source: New Energy Finance, IGreenTech, MF WEO Database, IEA WEO 2007, Boeing 2006 Annual Report

20 New Investment 2007 and Average Growth By Sector National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Wind $50.2bn 68% pa growth Solar Biofuels Biomass Efficiency, Services and other $28.6bn $19.2bn $11.5bn $5.1bn 46% pa growth 97% pa growth 92% pa growth 199% pa growth Other Renewables $3.1bn 26% pa growth Note: VC/PE, Public Markets and Asset Finance only. Excludes re-investment adjustment Source: New Energy Finance

21 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Renewable Energy Cost Trends Levelized cost of energy in constant 2005$ 1 Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office ( 1 These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. DRAFT November 2005

22 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Global Renewable Electricity Capacity Developing World, EU, and Top Six Countries, 2006 Gigawatts

23 Worldwide Production of Bioethanol, 2007 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

24 Getting to Speed and Scale Key Challenges National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Implementing Renewable Gigawatts at Scale Cost of renewable electricity Performance and reliability Infrastructure robustness and capacity Dispatchability of renewables Displacement of Petroleum-Based Fuels Non Food Feedstock Technology and costs Life cycle sustainability of biofuels Fuels infrastructure, including Codes/Standards Alternative Technologies and Mode Shifting Reducing Energy Demand of Buildings, Vehicles, and Industry Coordinated implementation of model building codes Valuation of Energy efficiency Consumer Expectations & Innovation Performance and reliability of new technologies

25 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Technology Innovation Challenges Remain The Next Generation Wind Improve energy capture by 30% Decrease costs by 25% Biofuels New feedstocks Integrated biorefineries Solar New materials, lower cost manufacturing processes, concentration Nanostructures Zero energy buildings Building systems integration Computerized building energy optimization tools Advanced vehicles Plug-in hybrids/electrics Alternative fuels

26 Options for Reducing Oil Imports: Fuel and Vehicle Options National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future High Key: Potential to Reduce Oil Imports (including market risk) Heavy Vehicle Sys Opt Conventional Vehicles Corn Cellulosic Ethanol Biodiesel P-HEVs Hybridization Advanced Combustion with inclusion in advanced vehicles Lightweight Materials - vehicle options - fuel options longer-term potential; benefiting from HEV, materials, & other R&D Hydrogen Energy Storage Fuel Cells Low Low High Technical Risk Near-term technologies (hybridization, lightweight materials, alternative fuels) enable a transition to more advanced vehicles

27 Pathways to Biofuels Feedstocks Lignocellulosic Biomass (wood, agri, waste, grasses, etc.) Ag residues, (stover, bagasse) Gasification Pyrolysis & Liquefaction Intermediates Syn Gas Bio-Oils Lignin Fermentation Catalytic synthesis FT synthesis MeOH synthesis HydroCracking/Treating Catalytic upgrading Transportation Fuels Ethanol & Mixed Alcohols Diesel* Methanol MTG Gasoline* Diesel* Gasoline* & Diesel* Sugar/Starch Crops (corn, sugar cane, etc.) Hydrolysis Sugars APP Catalytic pyrolysis APR Diesel* Gasoline* Hydrogen Fermentation Ethanol, Butanol, Hydrocarbons Natural Oils (plants, algae) Transesterification Hydrodeoxygenation Biodiesel Green diesel * Blending Products National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

28 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Current & Target Biofuels Costs P. Nair, UOP, 2008

29 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Vehicle Options. Innovation for Our Energy Future Conventional Vehicles Hybrid Electric Vehicles Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Hydrogen Powered Vehicles (including Fuel Cells)

30 Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) Dramatically reduce use of imported oil Dramatically reduce per mile fuel cost (ignoring for moment capital cost of battery) Perhaps most importantly, open up several very important doors beyond transportation National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

31 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future And the Opportunity they Offer is Just Around the Corner Toyota Prius plug-in parallel hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) in 2010 Chevy Volt range-extended electric vehicle (EV+) in 2010

32 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future And Many Others Here Now or Coming Soon BMW Mini E Mitsubishi Chrysler ecovoyager

33 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Heavy-Duty PHEVs are Here Too Odyne PHEV Aerial Lift Truck Purolator Quicksider Full Electric Smith Electric

34 Challenges for Plug-Ins Improving batteries Cost Calendar and cycle life Safety of Li-Ion Cold temperature performance Volume and packaging Reducing power electronics cost and volume Developing efficient chargers Standardizing plugs for charging Avoiding negative peak time charging impacts National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

35 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

36 A Systems Long View of the Future Clean, Diverse & Secure Intelligent, Resilient, Flexible & High Capacity Efficient & Integrated Near-Zero Emission Hydrocarbons H 2 Fuel Cell Vehicle Near-Zero Energy Buildings Advanced Nuclear e - e - e - Industry Renewable Energy Distributed Resources Technology advances are required National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

37 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Vision for a Sustainable Community

38 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future So Maybe the Future Can Look More Like This With Much of that Electricity Coming from Wind, Solar, or other Renewable Energy

39 Visit us online at Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Midwest Research Institute Battelle National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

40 Transportation Energy and Emissions: Reduction Opportunities and Policies Required to Implement Them John B. Heywood Sloan Automotive Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Solutions: TRB Webinar Session August 19, 2009

41 Topics: 1. Implementing near-term fuel economy requirements 2. An Action Plan for Cars 3. Electrification of vehicles 4. Challenges inherent in 2050 GHG targets

42 An Important Requirement Essential that targets and implementation policies are based on quantitative and robust analysis of the opportunties and their potential impacts

43 Average Fuel Economy of New U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles 4 Chart shows unadjusted fuel economy values from NHTSA

44 Methodology for Determining LDV Sales Mix Needed to Meet Various CAFE We have estimated, versus model year: 1. Efficiency of future powertrain options (naturally-aspirated gasoline, turbo DI gasoline, low-emissions diesel, hybrid, PHEV, BEV, fuel cell). 2. Average vehicle weight reduction (materials substitution, redesign, size shift). 3. Increase in vehicle performance (power/weight ratio, 0 to 60 mph time): Emphasis on Reducing Fuel Consumption, % ERFC. 4. Sales mix characteristics required to meet average miles per gallon target

45 Vehicle scenarios Scenario % ERFC Avg. new vehicle weight (kg) % light trucks (vs. cars) NA SI % Market share by powertrains Turbo SI Diesel HEV PHE V Total adv. powertrain ,870 48% 90.9% 4.6% 1.7% 2015 Federal CAFE target = 31.6 MPG 2.8 % 0.0% 9.1% -Lightweight 75% 1,514 40% 73% 13% 4% 9% 0% 27% -Downsize 75% 1,502 30% 82% 9% 3% 6% 0% 18% - Adv. Powertrain 75% 1,554 40% 67% 16% 5% 10% 1% 33% - Combination 75% 1,528 35% 73% 13% 4% 8% 0% 27% 2016 National Fuel Efficiency Policy target = 35.5 MPG -Lightweight 75% 1,480 40% 26% 37% 12% 23% 1% 74% -Downsize 75% 1,530 30% 26% 37% 12% 23% 1% 74% - Adv. Powertrain 75% 1,580 40% 14% 43% 14% 27% 1% 86% - Combination 75% 1,520 35% 26% 37% 12% 24% 1% 75% Average new vehicle weight reported includes effect of downsizing/shift towards cars

46 2020 Scenarios that will meet CAFE 35 MPG target % ERFC % Veh. weight reduction % Market share by powertrains NA SI Turbo SI Diesel Hybrid Total adv. powertrains 2020 limit 100% 17% % Adjust ERFC, weight, adv. Powertrains 99% 16% 51.5% 24.3% 7.8% 16.5% 48.5% Low ERFC 75% 17% 42.9% 28.5% 9.1% 19.4% 57.1% Lower ERFC 50% 17% 32.4% 33.8% 10.8% 23.0% 67.6% Improve avg. powertrain efficiency by +10% 75% 17% 75.9% 12.1% 3.9% 8.2% 24.1% 7 Assumptions: - Market share of light trucks (vs. cars) = 50% in all scenarios - Ratio of Turbo SI : Diesel : Hybrid is fixed at 3 : 1 : 2-17% avg. light-duty vehicle weight reduction = -320 kg = -710 lb

47 An Action Plan for Cars 1. John Heywood, with team of 12 colleagues and students, has developed this Action Plan : The set of policies needed to reduce U.S. LDV petroleum consumption and GHG emissions. 2. This set (for vehicles) comprises: a. Specifying fuel economy targets for CAFE beyond 2020 b. Increasing fuel taxes by 10 /gallon each year for at least 10 years c. Implementing a fuel-consumption-based feebate incentive system at time of vehicle purchase d. Establish driver education programs focused on high fuel economy driving behavior e. Improve the fuel consumption labeling provisions on new (and used) vehicles

48 An Action Plan for Cars - Continued 3. Recommendations related to fuels are: a. Develop the knowledge base and analysis procedures for full life-cycle GHG accounting for fuels b. Develop a robust U.S. national strategy in the transportation fuels area c. Based on that strategy, identify the incentives and policies needed to increase the supply and effective use of the more promising fuels

49 Oil Supply Scenario Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates, , Press Release, November 14, 2006 (graph adapted by Sperling, D., and Gordon, D., Two Billion Cars, 2009)

50 HEV, PHEV, BEV Deployment Issues 1. Need for prototype production phase, with volumes in tens of thousands, which lasts 5-10 years. 2. Initial costs of these vehicles are significantly higher (e.g. currently HEV ~ $5,000, PHEV (30 mile range) ~ $10,000, BEV ~ $15,000 depending on range). 3. Long-term projections suggest these price differentials may reduce by factor of Impact of BEV range limitation on vehicles attractiveness is major uncertainty

51 HEV, PHEV, BEV Deployment Issues Cont. 5. Many pragmatic issues: Availability of recharging locations Recharging power requirements for fast recharge Cumulative impact on electricity grid over time Battery performance, weight, and cost issues Near-term: we need to slow down and develop the technology 6. Electricity as viable longer-term energy option? Systems analysis of an evolving transportation electricity supply option needed GHG emissions of future electric grid, and of electricity used in transportation, a major question

52 What will it take to reduce GHG Emissions 75% 1. Will require significant reduction in impacts in 5 to 10 separate independent areas: e.g., vehicle technology, alternative fuels, vehicle usage, etc. 2. Note that: = Six independent factors each achieving a 20% reduction yield at 75% reduction

53 Achieving a 70-80% Reduction in Transportation s GHG Emissions by 2050 Meeting these 2050 GHG emission targets will need: Major improvements in powertrain and vehicle efficiency Major vehicle size and weight reduction Stronger emphasis on fuel consumption reduction over performance and other attributes Substantial build-up of alternative green (low CO 2 ) sources of transportation energy Reductions in mobility impacts through mode shifts and conservation Extensive management of transportation infrastructure and its several modes Changes in urban land-use patterns And other transforming changes

54 The Path to a Green Fleet Has Some Potholes Steve Plotkin Argonne National Laboratory Energy Solutions Transportation Research Board Webinar August 19, 2009

55 What I d like to discuss: A common vision for 2030: a super-efficient fleet, major penetration of plug-in hybrids and maybe hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and plenty of fuel for them.much of it renewable Why it s going to be very tough to achieve this vision: Market issues: costs, consumer behavior We don t have the economic incentives right We don t have other government policy right What can we do to get beyond these roadblocks 2

56 The year 2030: A converging vision of the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet Conventional midsize cars at 40+ MPG (unadjusted) Full range of hybrids, with up to 80+ MPG Numbers of plug-ins and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles Some elements of this new fleet: Low loads Cd (aerodynamics) for midsize cars Weight reduction of 20% (at least) Low rolling resistance tires (Cr = 0.006) Super-efficient drive trains And we d like plenty of fuel.preferably low carbon fuel 3

57 Technically this seems possible, but. Fuel economy estimates assume no change in performance, contrary to robust upwards trend Weight reductions also contrary to trends Aerodynamic leading edge seems frozen, though averages are getting better Battery costs and performance continue to improve.but a substantial gap remains (ditto fuel cells) from where they need to be Infrastructure requirements for some advanced technologies especially hydrogen fuel cells greatly increase economic risk 4

58 And what is cost effective to society may be anything but to the consumer. ll HEV Lifetime Savings - Vehicle Price Difference, $ Fuel Savings Minus Vehicle Price Difference 2030 MIDSIZE CAR "Literature Review" Vehicle Costs, $3.15 Gasoline Case Referenced to 2007 SI conventional vehicle EV10 SI Conv CI Conv SI Full HEV SI PHEV10 SI PHEV40 CI Full HEV Discount rate for future Discount fuel savings rates for future fuel savings CI PHEV10 CI PHEV40 FC HEV FC PHEV10 FC PHEV40 4% 10% 20% EV Source: ANL Multi-Path Study 5

59 In gauging the potential for advanced vehicles, remember that the competition is changing. Lifetime Savings - Vehicle Price, $ Net Benefits: Fuel Savings Minus Vehicle Price 2030 MIDSIZE CAR "Optimistic" Vehicle Costs, High Fuel Costs Referenced to 2007 SI conventional vehicle SI Conv CI Conv SI Full HEV SI PHEV10 SI PHEV40 CI Full HEV CI PHEV10 CI PHEV40 FC HEV FC PHEV10 FC PHEV40 4% 10% 20% EV Lifetime Savings - Vehicle Price, $ Net Benefits: Fuel Savings Minus Vehicle Price 2030 MIDSIZE CAR "Optimistic" Vehicle Costs, High Fuel Costs Referenced to 2030 SI Conventional Midsize Car 0 CI Conv SI Full HEV SI PHEV10 SI PHEV40 CI Full HEV CI PHEV10 CI PHEV40 FC HEV FC PHEV10 FC PHEV40 4% 10% 20% EV What looks good against today s (conventional) car may not look so good against tomorrow s. Source: ANL Multi-Path Study Lifetime Savings - Vehicle Price, $ Net Benefits: Fuel Savings Minus Vehicle Price 2030 MIDSIZE CAR "Optimistic" Vehicle Costs, High Fuel Costs Referenced to 2030 SI Full HEV Midsize Car SI Conv CI Conv SI PHEV10 SI PHEV40 CI Full HEV 4% 10% 20% CI PHEV10 CI PHEV40 FC HEV FC PHEV10 FC PHEV40 EV 6

60 We don t have the economic incentives right Gasoline is too cheap (most of the time) And even gasoline is expensive, we can t trust that it will stay that way harming technology development Oil price volatility also damages incentives for both new oil supplies and low carbon alternatives Infrastructure risk favors oil infrastructurecompatible fuels most of which are high carbon Private incentives for new transmission lines critical for renewable electricity are insufficient (and there are numerous regulatory roadblocks) And private incentives for R&D are limited 7

61 Not surprisingly, fuel price is crucial to the cost-effectiveness of efficiency technology Fuel Savings - Vehicle Price Difference Midsize Car SI HEV Sensitivity of Cost-Effectiveness to Fuel Price Literature Review Costs Discount rate for future fuel savings Gasoline Price, $/gallon 4% 10% 20% Source: ANL Multi-Path Study 8

62 Nor do we have government s role right United States has been reluctant to use either market incentives (gasoline taxes?) or regulation to push the market towards higher efficiency vehicles (although new CAFE standards will help) Oil price volatility comes partly from OPEC s market manipulation negative impacts on U.S. energy security deserve a government response Government energy R&D is small compared to what s at stake Electricity deregulation has not been accompanied by a fix for the removal of transmission capacity requirements 9

63 I conclude: Without a big external push, successful technologies are likely to be incremental and these may block plug-ins and fuel cell vehicles Good possibility that much potential fuel economy benefit will be lost to hedonic improvements in power/safety/size/luxury Without a change in fuel policy, the most likely future is renewed shortages of conventional oil, lack of low carbon alternatives, and high prices..and a turn towards higher carbon alternatives We need to face reality! 10

64 Policy options Incentives for vehicle development gasoline taxes, feebates, fuel economy standards, annual fees based on fuel economy/ghg emissions, etc. Incentives for new fuel development much more difficult, and much depends on balance of concerns energy security vs. climate change Opening up restricted areas to oil development based on realistic environmental review Carbon taxes on fuels Transmission capacity expansion for renewable electricity Massive increase in government-sponsored R&D for both vehicles and fuels And more.we need a national debate 11