Canada s Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - Global Leadership

Transcription

1 Canada s Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - Global Leadership Calgary-China Investment Summit Beijing, China October 17, 2013 Dave Collyer, President 1 Global Primary Energy Demand 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 million tonnes oil equivalent Other Renewables Bioenergy Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Ongoing reliance on fossil fuels (share of energy consumption): 2010: 81% 2035: 75% 0 Source: International Energy Agency New Policies Scenario World Energy Outlook Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2012

2 The Global Energy Spotlight on Canada World-Class Resource World-Class Capability Competitiveness -> Market Diversification -> Workforce Social License -> Performance -> Communication 3 The Oil and Natural Gas Industry A Key Driving Force in the Canadian Economy Invested $67 billion in Canada in 2012 $18 billion to governments per annum (Royalties, Land Bonuses and Taxes) 20% of the value on Toronto Stock Exchange Approx. 18% of Canada s exports Employs more than 550,000 in Canada Upstream Oil & Gas Auto Manufacturing Canada s Energy Circumstance: Resource-based export economy Forestry & Logging Wheat & Barley Uranium 4

3 Crude Oil Source: Cenovus World-Class Crude Oil Reserves billion barrels Includes 169 billion barrels of oil sands reserves World Oil Reserves 80 Restricted (81%) Open to Private Sector Open to Private Sector Oil Sands 56% Other 44% Venezuela Saudi Arabia Ca nada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Russia Libya Nigeria Kazhakhstan China Qatar United States Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec. 2012

4 Canadian Crude Oil Production Outlook Actual Forecast Eastern Canada Changing Global Oil Import Needs 14 Net oil imports in the New Policies Scenario mmb/d China India European Union United States Japan Korea Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, EIA 8

5 Market Diversification Via New Pipelines & Rail W. Canada Crude Oil Rail Exports - 200,000 b/d by Q4/13 Natural Gas 10

6 North American Natural Gas Supply Outlook Shale gas supply a game-changer 100+ years supply Technology success (horizontal drilling, fracturing, completions) Implications: New producing regions Shifting S / D dynamics Changes in p/ l flows Emerging stakeholder challenges (env. & social) Imports to Asian Economies with Growing Natural Gas Requirements (Bcf/d) Growth of 27 Bcfd or 167% 12 Source: EIA 2013 International Energy Outlook

7 Canadian LNG Export Projects in Development Kitimat LNG (Chevron, Apache) 1.4 Bcf/d Permits received; awaiting investment decision BC LNG Export Co-operative Bcf/d Permits received LNG Canada (Shell, KOGAS, Mitsubishi, PetroChina) Bcf/d Feasibility stage; applied for some permits Pacific Northwest LNG (Progress/Petronas, Japex) 2.0 Bcf/d (Merger approval granted) Completed feasibility, progressing to pre-feed Nexen/Inpex Conducting feasibility Prince Rupert LNG (BG Group) 3.0 Bcf/d Advancing feasibility, applying for permits AltaGas/Idemitsu Kosan 0.27 Bcf/d Conducting feasibility ExxonMobil/Imperial Oil (WCC LNG Ltd) 4.0 Bcf/d Applied for export license Woodfibre LNG 0.3 Bcfd Applied for export licence Expressions of interest to proceed with a project have also been made by; Woodside Petroleum & South Korea E&S 13 Total potential new supply ~ 13.0 Bcf/d Skilled Workforce Availability Workforce skills & capacity is key to competitiveness Challenge arises from growth opportunity and demographics Provide opportunity for Canadians: Training Mobility Under-represented groups Immigration: Numbers & skills Permanent and temporary Workforce supply and productivity is key to managing costs 14

8 Social License + = Performance: Continuous environmental & social performance improvement (across the value chain)..including monitoring, timely & transparent reporting Clear line of sight to economic and social benefits to Canadians World class policy & regulatory system Solutions-oriented advocacy for balanced policy and regulation Communications & Outreach: Sustained communications grounded in performance improvement Strong focus on outreach & engagement Requires leadership & collaboration 15 Being Part of the 16

9 Economic Benefits of Oil Sands A Canadian Story 17 The Way Forward Sustainability & Growth Opportunities: Market demand Competitive supply Build on strong foundation Industry Competitiveness Market growth & diversification Skilled workforce availability Industry Social License Performance + Communication Must be earned (every day!) Key levers: Technology & innovation Collaboration (within sector, along value chain, w/ aligned interests)