OIL & ENERGY MARKETS: SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

Transcription

1 OIL & ENERGY MARKETS: SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

2 Gunvor Integrated Global Trading 1

3 A Balanced Trading Portfolio Naphtha Naphtha LPG Biofuel Gasoline LPG Biofuel Gasoline Gasoil Coal Crude Oil (30%) Fuel Oil Crude Oil (60%) NatGas + LNG Fuel Oil Gasoil 2009: 98 MT mn 2012: 130 MT mn 2

4 Group Strategy GEOGRAPHICAL EXPANSION PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION INVESTMENTS ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN New Offices New Partnerships Expanded Trading New Desks Acquisitions Greenfield Projects Brownfield Projects 3

5 Gunvor Investment Strategy Across the Value Chain Signal Peak (United States) 33% LLC Kolmar (Russia) 30% Keaton Energy Holdings Ltd (South Africa) 24% Lagansky Block (Caspian Sea) 30% Upstream Ust Luga Oil Products Terminal (Russia) 100% Ust Luga Crude Oil Pipeline (Russia) 50% Novorossiysk Fuel Oil Terminal (Russia) 50% Midstream Petroterminal de Panama, S.A. (Panama) 16% Independent Belgium Refinery BV (Belgium) 100% Gunvor Raffinerie Deutschland GmbH (Germany) 100% TAL Pipeline (Italy, Austria, Germany) 10% Downstream 4

6 $/bbl $/mmbtu $/bbl A Changing Oil & Energy Price Backdrop 130 Price-inventory relationship weakens after US refiner crude stocks, kb Crude price & economic expectations Inter-fuel & inter-region price divergence an09 Aug09 Mar10 Sep10 Apr11 Nov11 un12 an13 S&P500 ICE Brent 30 LNG apan cif OECD crude imports US Henry Hub NW Eur steam coal 5

7 Changing Financial Framework Too Public equity & debt offerings of physical commodity traders, $US billion 6

8 kb/d kb/d An Evolving U.S. Oil Landscape US crude oil production US net oil products exporter since mid Graphic: Financial Times Total products imports Total products exports 7

9 mb/d Other New Upstream Hotspots Too.. Many with High Political or Infrastructure Risk 10 8 The IEA view on Iraqi supply Iraq: physical potential, potential logistic/political barriers Source: IEA 2012 Central scenario High case 8

10 real GDP growth, % mb/d vs. base case Macro Outlook Uncertainty Global Trade and GDP Growth source: WTO Economic risks & oil demand oil demand impact IMF 09/11 IMF 10/12 low growth IMF 4/13 9

11 y-o-y growth, kb/d Energy Demand: Relentless Shift to Emerging Markets Oil demand growth now an emerging market story OECD growth China growth Other non OECD growth Primary Energy Growth Source: BP Energy Outlook

12 Oil & Transport Grab the Headlines, but Power Sector Runs on Coal source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2012 source: ExxonMobil, Energy Outlook

13 Rising Gas Supplies & Inroads to the Transport Sector New LNG Supplies Source: ExxonMobil Source: IEA MTGMR

14 million tons oil equivalent % per year China Looms Large as Oil & Energy Demand Motor China accounts for 45% of incremental hydrocarbon energy oil gas coal total China RoW World Oil intensity, bbl/$000 GDP China oil demand and GDP growth oil demand growth GDP growth China World USA 13

15 $/bbl New East of Suez Capacity Puts European Refining Under Pressure Margins unexpectedly strong in but weaker ex-us in IEA 2012 SING Crack Dubai N.WE crack Brent Med Crack Urals USG crack LLS Chicago crack WTI Declining local demand, plus surge in new capacity east of Suez means focus of rationalisation is in Europe North America shielded by cheap feedstock & energy costs Some OECD Asian capacity benefits from proximity to growth markets Distressed capacity being converted to storage, sold to NOCs & trading companies or closed 14

16 increment, mb/d Rising Refined Products Trade Refining additions vs oil demand growth Primary refining additions Oil demand growth US is already seeing rising crude output, less imports, maturing oil demand, so trade shifts to products exports New refining capacity in the Middle East and other producing areas, emergence of India and China as exporters of key products Global products trade may grow faster than crude in the next decade 15

17 SULPHUR CAP (%) Bunker Sulphur Specs Will Affect Trade Too HFO IMO/Global IMO/ECA MGO EU CARB MDO LSFO MGO MDO/MGO 01 anuary anuary anuary anuary anuary anuary anuary anuary

18 A Bright Future for the Trading Companies Pump It Move It Refine It Store It Move It Sell It More diversified geographically, across products and along the value chain But trading remains central Assets must enhance, or benefit from, core business May

19 Thank you for your attention May 2013