Wildland Fire Emissions and Air Quality Impacts

Transcription

1 Wildland Fire Emissions and Air Quality Impacts Fire Occurrence Thompson G. Pace Fuel Type and Loading EPA OAQPS/EMAD/EFIG September 14, 2004 Fuel Consumption Emissions Production Note: Some slides courtesy of USFS & other EPA offices Dispersion / AQ Modeling / Monitoring 1

2 Fire Occurrence Fuel Type and Loading Fuel Consumption Emissions Production Dispersion / AQ Modeling / Monitoring 2

3 Acreage Burned by Wildfires Varies Greatly from Year to Year National Wildfire Acres Burned 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,

4 Fire Occurrence Issues & Remote Sensing (Size and Location of Fires in Space & Time) Many different Federal databases Different data elements (and definitions) Different quality, completeness Different lag times for data entry State databases Variable data elements, quality etc. Private databases Virtually non-existent Key Issues Who owns the land and who (should) report the fires? When, where are the fires How large are they (acres burned) What is the appropriate role of remote sensing? 4

5 2001 PM2.5 Wildfires (Tons/Yr/Sq Mi) Tons/yr/sq mi

6 Federal and State Land Ownership 6

7 What Size Fires are of Interest to AQ Planners? Wildfire Occurrence in Southeast US (2002) ~ Size vs Number No Acre range 0-1 # of Fires 14,657 # % 49.00% Acres 6,251 Acres % 1.30% 1-5 8, % 24, %? , % 19, % , % 74, % % 41, % Yes > % 0.10% 97, , % 44.00% Totals 29, ,879? 7

8 Fire Occurrence Fuel Type and Loading Fire Emissions Fuel Consumption Emissions Production Dispersion / AQ Modeling / Monitoring 8

9 Current Tools to Support Fire Emissions Estimation AP-42 and past National Emissions Inventory efforts Methods simplistic, migrating to newer tools for 2002 (v2) Stand-alone tools Current: NFDRS, Consume, FOFEM, EPM New: Fire Emissions Production Simulator (FEPS) replaces EPM New: FCC national fuels mapping replacement for NFDRS BlueSky system Modular Currently ~ Consume / EPM BlueSky-EM & Grid-model Linkage Under development (US EPA / ORD w/ USFS) 9

10 Potential Role(s) for Remote Sensing in Fire Emissions Estimation Fuel Characterization (Fuel Type & Loading) Default maps (resolution, specificity) Natural alterations to default conditions Fuel treatments to reduce fire hazard? Fuel Consumption Variables Fuel moisture? Emissions Production Heat release & emissions Plume initial conditions? Other Temporal resolution * Re 10

11 Fire Occurrence Fuel Type and Loading Fuel Consumption Emissions Production Dispersion / AQ Modeling / Monitoring 11

12 July 2004 Alaskan Wild Fire

13 PM2.5 Missoula & Bitterroot Valley Aug. 12 to 21, PM2.5 (ug/m 3 ) Missoula (airport) Missoula (Reserve&93) Lolo Florence Stevensville Hamilton Darby Lost Trail Pass 12- Aug 13- Aug 14- Aug 15- Aug 16- Aug 17- Aug 21- Aug 13

14 Example Impact of Canadian Fire on US Air Quality Cheol- Heon Jeong, Doh- Won Lee, and Philip K. Hopke

15 Ozone AQ in Kansas City ~ 8-hour avg. maximum concentrations for April from Effect of Flint Hills Prescribed Fires Year Monthly High (ppm) Date /10/ /24/ /8/ /24/ /18/ /23/ /7/ /28/ /29/ /14/ /12/2003 *Average of 8-hour high in April from is ppm. 15

16 Potential Role (s) for Remote Sensing in Fire Transport (Dispersion, AQ Modeling & Monitoring) Plume rise Transport & transformation Terrain Photochemistry Impacted populations Ground-truthing Actual vs modeled plume path Monitor placement fixed networks & portable monitoring Note Different Requirements: Forecasts (short term projections) vs AQ planning (retrospective and long term projections) Plume vs grid models 16

17 Ongoing Fire Emissions Inventory and Forecasting Activities

18 Ongoing Fire Emissions & Forecasting Activities RPO-specific 2002 Prescribed Fire Inventories Forest, rangeland and agriculture RPO National 2002 Wildfire Emissions Inventory 1st RPO attempt to use consistent methods Product due late fall, 2004 National Emissions Inventory Pre Future years (plan to utilize remote sensing fire products) BlueSky / BlueSkyRAINS (BSR) BlueSky USFS fire emissions modeling / AQ modeled forecasting RAINS EPA R10 s Rapid Access Info System & visualization tool for BlueSky BlueSky-EM EPA ORD s BlueSky emissions modeling for grid models 18

19 What is BlueSky? Real-time Smoke Concentration Predictions: Prescribed, Wild, Agricultural Fires Daily Emission Tracking from Multi-Agency Burn Reporting Systems Qualitative/Quantitative Verification Automated, centralized processing Web-access to output products 19

20 Fire Characteristics FASTRACS Area Burned MT/ID Fuel Moisture Airshed Group 209 Fuel Wildfire Loadings Reports Washington Fire Location DNR, Oregon ODF, Fire Ignition ClearSky Time BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework (PNW) Meteorology 3-d Wind/Temp/Moisture UW MM5 Forecast System 12 km Domain 72 Hour Forecast Emissions Fuel Calculate Loadings: fuel consumption Hardy et al., NFDRS, and variable FCC rate mapping emissions EPM/COMSUME of: Heat Released, v1.02 PM2.5, BURNUP PM10, PM, CO, CO2, CH4 Smoke Dispersion CALPUFF PM Concentrations HYSPLIT Plume Rise (link (Visibility) to CMAQ thru (Chemistry) BSky-EM) Web Display of Output Products Animations PM2.5 Surface Concentrations RAINS (ArcIMS/ArcSDE) Zoom In/Out, Overlay GIS Data PM2.5 Concentrations, Trajectories, Meteorological data,

21 BlueSkyRAINS ~ Output Products 21

22 FCAMMS locations & domains 22

23 BSR Extension Western US Extends BSR emissions modeling & AQ forecasting to western US, then nationally, for wildfires 90 day effort ~ EPA R10 / USFS PNW-FCAMMS Note: OAR moving into coordination role for EPA (long term) National Active Participants: SHRMC + RMC FCAMMS Clearly must expand partnerships DOI, NOAA, NASA, RPOs? 23

24 Discussion