Towards sustainable production and use of resources: Assessing Biofuels

Transcription

1 Twards sustainable prductin and use f resurces: Assessing Bifuels A summary presentatin frm a reprt cnducted by the Internatinal Panel fr Sustainable Resurce Management September, 2009

2 Internatinal Panel fr Sustainable Resurce Management The Resurce Panel was established t : prvide independent, cherent and authritative scientific assessments f plicy relevance n the sustainable use f natural resurces and in particular their envirnmental impacts ver the full life cycle cntribute t a better understanding f hw t decuple ecnmic grwth frm envirnmental degradatin. It currently has fur wrking grups: Decupling Bifuels Priritizatin f prducts and materials Glbal metal flws

3 Reprt: Twards sustainable prductin and use f resurces: Assessing Bifuels Cntent: prvides anverview f the key prblems and perspectives tward sustainable prductin and use f bimass fr bienergy purpses describes ptins fr mre sustainable use f bimass and measures t increase resurce prductivity twards a sustainable bi-ecnmy fcuses n first generatin bifuels while cnsidering further lines f develpment fcuses n the glbal situatin, recgnising reginal differences marks uncertainties and addresses the needs fr research and develpment Prcess: based n an extensive literature study prepared by the bifuels wrking grup underwent extensive internal review, incl. by the Steering Cmmittee, and peer review The key questin that ccurred is whether significant expansin f bifuel prductin is t much f a gd thing

4 Outline f the reprt Trends and drivers Life cycle wide envirnmental impacts f bifuels Land use change and implicatins Optins fr mre efficient and sustainable resurce use Strategies and measures t enhance resurce prductivity

5 Bienergy is part f the energy mix Traditinal bimassaccunts fr 13% f glbal final energy demand. Liquid bifuels prvided 1.8%f the wrld s transprt fuel by energy value in 2008 with a strng upward trend, mainly in USA, EU, Brazil and China. Due t mre favurable climatic cnditins, grwth in prductin is expected t ccur in trpical cuntries. As a result, internatinal trade in ethanl and bidiesel will grw significantly. Main triggers fr the increase in bifuel develpment are plicy targets and blending qutas. In cmbinatin with high il prices, they pulled large private sectr investments. Renewable Energy Share f Glbal Final Energy Cnsumptin (2006) Surce: REN21 (2007). Glbal biethanl and bidiesel prductin, Surce: SCOPE (2009).

6 Bienergy ptential has t be assessed in light f glbal trends: ppulatin grwth, nutritin, yields Glbal ppulatinis expected t grw by 36% between 2000 and 2030 (medium prjectin f UN/FAO). Average crp yieldsare expected t increase at abut the same rate. Hwever, relative yield increases have in general weakend (estimates fr glbal yields in the next decade predict 1-1.1% p.a. grwth fr cereals). Meat cnsumptin is expected t increase by 22% per capita between , which requires mre crpland fr feed. Effects fclimate change will put further pressure n yield imprvements and availability f arable land. Feeding the wrld ppulatin will require the expansin f glbal crpland. Additinal demand fr nn-fd bimass will add n tp f this. Develpment f glbal ppulatin, agriculture land and cnsumptin per persn in the past ( ) Surces: UN ppulatin statistics nline; FAOSTAT nline

7 Bifuels may make a difference life cycle wide GHG emissins vary Life-cycle assessments (LCA) f bifuels shw a wide range f net GHG balances cmpared t traditinal fuels, depending n feedstck, cnversin technlgy, and methdlgical assumptins. Highest GHG savings are fr sugar cane (70 t +100%), bigas frm manure, and ethanl frm residues. Lwest savings, and smetimes even higher GHG emissins than fssil fuels ccur when prductin takes place n cnverted natural land. Greenhuse gas savings f bifuels cmpared t fssil fuels

8 Other envirnmental impacts f bifuels are s far insufficiently cvered by life cycle assessments Bifuels tend t have impacts n eutrphicatin, acidificatin, and zne depletin. Impacts such as water cnsumptin and effects n bidiversity are hardly cnsidered by LCA. A harmnized set f impact indicatrs is lacking. LCA is a useful tl, but has methdlgical cnstraints that shuld be taken int accunt when analysing and cmparing results: varying assumptins. Fr instance, results f lifecycle GHG balances depend n the way land cnversin related impacts are attributed. LCA, as a prduct-riented apprach, needs t becmplemented by analytical appraches that capture larger spatial and sci-ecnmic cntexts in rder t accunt fr effects such as indirect land use change. Example f bidiesel frm rape seed: impacts cmpared t fssil fuels Surce: Reinhardt et al. 2008

9 Water is a limiting factr fr bifuels develpment Water quality: Fr instance in the Mississippi drainage basin increased crn acreage and fertilizer applicatin fr bifuel prductin, increase nitrgen and phsphrus lsses t water bdies, particularly in the Nrthern Gulf f Mexic and Atlantic castal waters, leading t serius hypxia prblems (shrtage f xygen). Water cnsumptin: feed-stck prductin fr bifuels in water scarce regins requires irrigatin. This may cmpete with fd prductin. Extreme weather events (inundatin, drughts) due t climate changemight increase uncertainty.

10 Land is a limiting factr fr bifuels develpment Cnservative estimates f prjected land use fr bifuel crps vary between Mha fr Estimates f lng-term ptential land requirements fr bifuels vary widely and depend n the basic assumptins made - mainly type f feedstck, gegraphical lcatin and level f input and yield increase. Ravindranath et al (2009) estimated that Mha wuld be required in 2030 t prvide 10% f transprt fuel demand with 1 st gen bifuels. Fr cmparisn, ttal crpland is abut 1,500 ha. Land use change has a range f ptential implicatins, including n GHG balance and bidiversity. The drive t meet the demand fr palm il is resulting in cnversin f frested areas int palm il plantatins. These satellite images reveal hw a cmbinatin f transmigratin, lgging interests, and palm il plantatin develpment have transfrmed an area that was previusly trpical lwland rain and swamp frest. Surce: UNEP Atlas One Planet -Many Peple

11 Land cnversin fr bifuel crps can lead t significant GHG emissins Clearing the natural vegetatin mbilizes the stcked carbn and may lead t a carbn debt, which culd render the verall GHG mitigatin effect f bifuels questinable fr the fllwing decades. GHG balance estimate*, in 2030: 10% bifuels wrld-wide culd substitute fssil fuels emitting 0.84 Gt CO2 substitutin ptential 20-90%: Gt CO2 LUC induced additinal emissins: 0.75 t 1.83 Gt CO2 *Ravindranath, N.H. et al. (2009) GHG Implicatins f Land Use and Land Cnversin t Bifuel Crps. In: R. W. Hwarth and S. Bringezu (editrs), Bifuels: Envirnmental Cnsequences and Interactins with Changing Land Use. Reprt f the Internatinal SCOPE Bifuels Prject. (

12 Land cnversin fr bifuel crps can lead t significant lss f bidiversity In particular habitat lss thrugh land use change might have a large impact n bilgical diversity. Invasive speciesas feedstcks, and nutrient pllutin thrugh intensive agriculture may further impact n bilgical diversity. Benefits frm mitigated climate change can nt cmpensate lsses by habitat cnversin fr decades. Hwever, utilizing recently abandned and degraded landculd lead t beneficial effects fr bidiversity. Bidiversity lss due t bifuel feedstck prductin Surce: Eickhut et al

13 Optins fr mre efficient and sustainable resurce use Imprving the prductin f bimass : Increasing yields and ptimizing agricultural prductin Restring frmerly degraded land Mre efficient use f bimass: Use f waste and prductin residues Cascading use f bimass Statinary use f bienergy Cnsidering different pathways: Mineral based slar energy systems

14 Optins Increasing yields and ptimizing agricultural prductin The past trends and the ptential t increase yields differs amng regins. Unused ptential fr yield increase seem t exist in regins such as Sub-Saharan Africa. Glbal trends in cereal yields by regin ( ) Surce: Hazel and Wd (2008)

15 Optins Restring frmerly degraded land Abandned, marginal and degraded land may be used fr bifuel prductin. Certain crps can restre prductivity f degraded land. Wrldwide ptential f abandned land Hwever, use f abandned, marginal and degraded land may : cmpete with nature restratin require higher inputs save less GHG than frest regrwing naturally n abandned land Surce: Campbell et al. 2007

16 Optins Use f residues and waste Utilizatin f waste and residues can save significant amunts f GHG emissins withut additinal land use. Further research is needed n sustainable residue balance fr nutrient recycling and sil fertility. Overview f the IEA estimates f glbal ptential f bimass fr energy (EJ per year) until 2050 and sme key assumptins Surce: IEA 2007b after Berndes et al., 2003; Smeets et al., 2007; Hgwijk et al., 2005a.

17 Optins Cascading use f bimass Using bimass t prduce a material first, then recver its energy cntent frm the waste can prvide multiple benefits and ensures mre efficient use f bimass. Reutilizatin f bimass may reduce demand fr land and maximize GHG mitigatin ptential. Land use - Prductin f Bimass Wd (shrt/lng term rtatin) Perennial herbaceus crps (e.g. miscanthus) Other crps (ilseed, sugar, starch) Multiple utility Material use Fd/fdder Cnstructin Chemicals Pulp and Paper Other Waste-t-energy + Recycling: cascading Energy use Electricity Heat Fuels Surce: after Drnburg (2004).

18 Optins Statinary use f bienergy Bimass fr heat/pwer is usually mre efficient than cnverting it t transprt fuel. Multifunctinal services like waste treatment with energy prvisin (i.e. bigas) have great ptential fr a renewable energy surce. Particularly, in develping cuntries, decentralized use f bifuels in statinary applicatins can supply lcal cmmunities with basic energy t enhance living and wrking cnditins. Overview f current energy yields (net) f renewable raw materials fr different usage paths in GJ/ha Nte: SRP = shrt-rtatin plantatin, BtL = bimass-t-liquid, PP = pwer plant, CHP = cmbined heat and pwer, EtOH = ethanl, SB = sugar beet. Surce: SRU (2007)

19 Optins Mineral based systems Bimass and slar energy systems bth make use f slar radiatin reaching the surface f the earth: bimass in the pen field captures abut 1 6 % f the slar radiatin input, which still requires transfrmatin int usable energy technlgies such as phtvltaics and slar thermal pwer can make use f 9 24 % Slar systems can be installed n rfs and facades and lands nt suitable fr ther purpses withut any additinal requirement n land. Surce: German Federal Ministry f Ecnmics and Technlgy

20 Key messages (1) Mbilize agricultural ptentials in regins that have lagged increase yields in an envirnmentally & scially benign manner Limit expansin f crpland and direct new develpment t degraded land, cnsidering ptential envirnmental and scial impacts Explre lw input cultivatin f perennials t limit eutrphicatin Prmte energy frm residues/waste rather than energy crps Fster cascading use f bimass Prmte use f bienergy fr statinary applicatin rather than fr transprt Limit verall bimass & energy demand (efficiency in fuel cnsumptin, etc.)

21 Key messages (2) Further develp prductin standards and prduct certificatin f bifuels t cnsider all relevant envirnmental and scial impacts Fr a sufficient assessment f bifuels cnsider infrmatin n bth - - specific types f prducts and prductin cnditins, and - verall cnsumptin and land use fr bimass Recnsider current plicy mandates, targets, quta (limit demand t levels which can sustainably be supplied) Develp natinal and reginal resurce management prgrammes -incl. climate and bidiversity prtectin, fd and energy security -cnsider land use fr dmestic cnsumptin (limit burden shifting) Use ecnmic instruments t increase resurce prductivity (e.g. refrm subsidies including thse f fssil fuels)

22 Key authrs: S. Bringezu, H. Schütz, M. O Brien, L. Kauppi, R.W. Hwarth, J. McNeely The full reprt, including references can be accessed at the fllwing website: Fr mre infrmatin, please cntact: Martina Ott, UNEP martina.tt@unep.rg Phts: istck, Clean Star India, Shutterstck, Still Pictures