YUKON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE WHAT WE KNOW AND WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW

Transcription

1 YUKON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE WHAT WE KNOW AND WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW J Richard Janowicz Water Resources Branch Yukon Department of Environment Whitehorse, Yukon

2 OVERVIEW Climate Change / Climate Warming Summarize Changes in Yukon Hydrologic Response Over the Last 3 Decades Planned Adaptation Measures

3 YUKON CLIMATE WARMING Climate Warming Yukon Reality Major Recent Flooding Events Linked to Climate Warming (2007, 2009, 2012, 2013)

4 YUKON CLIMATE WARMING 2013 Biggest Flood Year in 30 years 7 major ice jam / freshet floods Ice jam floods in unique locations Freshet floods in unique locations Both in some locations

5 HISTORICAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION Annual National Precipitation Departure Observed Temp / Precip Changes (30 Years) Summer Temp o C Winter Temp o C Summer Precip % Winter Precip %

6 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE INCREASING TEMPERATURES = PERMAFROST DEGREGATION

7 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS PERMAFROST REGIME TRENDS Winter Low Flows Discharge (m 3 /s) Winter Low Flows Increasing Due to Greater Groundwater Contributions to Winter Streamflow Klondike R ab Bonanza Cr

8 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE Mean Annual Maximum Flow Pelly River at Pelly Crossings Discharge (m 3 /s) There is Some Evidence to Suggest that Peak Flows are Decreasing Due to Increasing Pathways to Stream Channel

9 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE Annual Peak Flows Trend is Variable Due to: Increased Precip Compressed Runoff Period (Earlier and More Rapid Snowmelt) Liard River at Upper Crossing

10 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE Increasing Peak Flows Due to Melting Glaciers / High Elevation Snowmelt Atlin River nr Atlin Maximum Annual Peak Flow 350 Discharge (m 3 /s)

11 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE MARSH LAKE MAXIMUM STAGE

12 CLIMATE WARMING IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE RIVER ICE REGIMES

13 RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS Freeze-up Timing Freeze-up Dates (Julian Day) Yukon River at Whitehorse ( ) Freeze-up timing delayed approximately 30 days since 1902

14 RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS Break-up Timing Break-up Dates (Julian Day) Yukon River at Dawson ( ) Break-up Timing Advanced 6 days in 100 Years

15 RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS Break-up Timing Break-up Dates (Julian Day) Porcupine River at Old Crow ( )

16 RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS 2002/03 Mid-Winter Klondike River Ice Jam and Flooding Dawson City Winter Temperatures Klondike River Ice Jam Degree Days Frost ( o c) /03 warmest winter ** 2014 Winter Flooding **

17 RIVER ICE REGIME TRENDS Break-up Severity 321 Break-up Elevation (m) Dawson Yukon River at Dawson Annual Maximum Break-up Elevation ( )

18 WHAT WE KNOW Winter low flows increasing due to degrading permafrost Peak flows increasing in glaciered watershed due to melting glaciers Later river ice formation, earlier break-up, shorter ice cover period

19 WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW Possibly smaller peak spring / summer flows due to degrading permafrost Generally higher peak flows due a compressed snowmelt period Greater frequency and severity of ice jam flooding

20 WHAT ARE WE DOING TO ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES AND UNCERTAINITIES?

21 YUKON WATER STRATEGY Update hydrometric monitoring station instrumentation Expand hydrometric monitoring network Update /improve flood forecasting methodology Expand satellite based river break up monitoring capabilities

22 UPDATE HYDROMETRIC MONITORING STATIONS Active Hydrometric Monitoring Networks

23 UPDATE HYDROMETRIC MONITORING STATIONS Stations Upgraded

24 EXPAND HYDROMETRIC MONITORING NETWORKS Stations Stations Stations Total 25 Stations (35 % Expansion) Expansion Objectives Flood Forecasting Project Design Climate Change

25 UPDATE / IMPROVE FLOOD FORECASTING CAPABILITY

26 EXPAND SATELLITE BASED RIVER CLIMATE BREAK CHANGE UP MONITORING RESEARCH Old Crow and Porcupine River Expand to include Yukon River from Fort River Break-up Studies using Satellite Telemetry Will Improve Reliance Forecasting to Fort Capability Selkirk for Old Crow

27 THANK YOU