Rural and Nonmetropolitan Population Change in Ohio, 1950 to Prepared by Jeff S. Sharp and Valerie Winland Ohio State University Extension

Transcription

1 Rural and Nonmetropolitan Population Change in Ohio, 1950 to 1998 Prepared by Jeff S. Sharp and Valerie Winland Ohio State University Extension Ohio Rural-Urban Interface Series: RU-1 November, 1999

2 Table of Contents Notes on Data... 2 Highlights... 3 Introduction... 4 Section 1: Comparison of Ohio and Other States... 5 Section 2: Ohio s Rural and Urban Population, 1950 to Section 3: Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Growth, 1950 to Section 4: Focus on Population Change in Counties and Metro Regions...13 Section 5: Rural Population Change by Metro/Nonmetro Character...19 Section 6: Brief Review of Sources of Population Change, 1990 to Section 7: Conclusions and Implications...23 Works Cited...25 Appendix...26 Appendix Table A.1: Population Chang in Ohio Counties, rank ordered...27 Appendix Table A.2: Rural Population in Counties, rank ordered...29 Appendix Table A.3: Total County Population, Appendix Table A.4: Rural Population by County, Appendix Table A.5: Urban Population by County,

3 Notes on Data Data come from the decennial U.S. census for the time period 1950 to Also included are 1998 census estimates of population released in March of Analysis of rural and urban characteristics of the population is confined to the decennial census data since the estimated 1998 population data does not make this distinction. Because of this, some of the data compiled in the tables and texts are for the time period 1950 to 1990 and some are for the time period 1950 to Despite the 1990 data being somewhat out of date, the reported trends are still worthy of consideration with implications for the 1990s. The data reported in the following document rely on several Census-defined, geographical terms. The following definitions are adapted from explanatory materials located at Metropolitan Area: A metropolitan area is a concept for describing the existence of an area containing a large population nucleus and adjacent communities that have a high degree of economic and social integration with the core of the metro area. Metropolitan areas (MAs) include metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), consolidated metropolitan statistical areas (CMSA a combination of two or more MAs), and primary metropolitan statistical areas (the MAs that comprise a CMSA). To qualify as an MSA the following criteria must be met: a city with 50,000 or more inhabitants or a Census Bureau-defined urbanized area (of at least 50,000 inhabitants) and a total metropolitan population of at least 100,000 (75,000 in New England). Further, the county or counties containing the largest city in the MSA are designated the central county(ies). Adjacent counties with at least 50 percent of their population in the urbanized area are also designated central counties of the MSA. Additional outlying counties are included in the MSA if they meet certain requirements, such as high level of commuting into the central county(ies) or high population density (See the U.S. Census website for additional detail). Rural and urban are also Census-defined attributes (U.S. Census Bureau, 1995) used in this monograph. Unlike MSAs, designation of rural and urban is made at the subcounty level. Thus within an MSA there can be both rural and urban residents. Urban: urban is defined as comprising all territory, population, and housing units in urbanized areas and in places of 2,500 or more persons outside urbanized areas. More specifically, urban consists of territory, persons, and housing units in: 1. Places of 2,500 or more persons incorporated as cities, villages, boroughs (except in Alaska and New York), and towns (except in the six New England States, New York, and Wisconsin), but excluding the rural portions of extended cities. 2. Census designated places of 2,500 or more persons. 3. Other territory, incorporated or unincorporated, included in urbanized areas. Rural: Territory, population, and housing not classified as urban constitute rural. 2

4 Selected Highlights The following are highlights of some of the data reported in this monograph. More detail and precise figures are found in the report s text and tables. Ohio is the seventh most populated state, the ninth most densely populated state, and ranks fifth in number of rural residents (persons living in villages of less than 2,500 residents or in the open country). From 1950 to 1990, Ohio s urban population (residents living in communities of more than 2,500 residents) has grown 44 percent. Ohio s rural population for the same time period grew only 18.6 percent. Statewide population grew 36.5 percent from 1950 to In 1990, 74 percent of Ohio s population lived in urban places while 26 percent lived in rural places. There are 15 metropolitan areas (regions with a central city of 50,000 or more) either wholly or partially located in the state of Ohio. The 39 Ohio counties comprising these metropolitan areas contain 44.8 percent of the state s land area and 81 percent of Ohio s 11.2 million residents. Percent population growth in metropolitan Ohio exceeded that of nonmetropolitan counties during the 1950s and 1960s, but percent change in nonmetropolitan Ohio has been higher in the 1970s, 1980s, and so far in the 1990s. Nearly 55 percent of Ohio s 1990 rural residents (living in villages of 2,500 or less or in the open country) live in one of the 39 metropolitan counties. Ohio s three largest metropolitan areas (Cincinnati-Hamilton, Cleveland-Akron, and Columbus) are comprised of 19 counties and are home to 52.8 percent of the state s 1998 estimated population. For the time period 1950 to 1998, Clermont County grew 317 percent (the highest county population change in Ohio). Warren, Medina, Geauga, and Delaware Counties have all grown more than 200 percent during this time period. Delaware County has grown an estimated 37.8 percent in the 1990s, fastest growing county in Ohio. Warren and Union counties have grown an estimated 20 percent during the 1990s. Stark, Clermont, and Geauga County had the largest number of rural residents in 1990 (each having over 68,000 rural residents). Each of these three counties are also parts of metropolitan areas. 3

5 Rural and Nonmetropolitan Population Change in Ohio, 1950 to 1998 Prepared by Jeff S. Sharp and Valerie Winland Ohio State University Extension 1 Ohio Rural-Urban Interface Series: RU-1 This is the first in a series of monographs that describe community and agricultural change at the rural/urban interface in Ohio. Secondary data sources, such as the U.S. Census and the Census of Agriculture, provide a variety of demographic data that can show the changes occurring at the rural-urban interface. Understanding these historic patterns of change at the rural/urban interface can aid policy-makers, researchers and local citizens to better anticipate and react to changes occurring where the city and country meet. This report focuses on population change in Ohio counties and regions from 1950 to Future reports will focus on agricultural change in Ohio and population change in the state s incorporated places. Introduction During the 1970s, demographers reported a population shift that came to be known as the nonmetropolitan turnaround (Fuguitt, 1985). After decades of nonmetropolitan population decline, demographers found more Americans were moving to nonmetropolitan areas than were moving out during the 1970s. This period of nonmetropolitan growth slowed (and reversed in some areas) during the farm crisis years of the 1980s. Now, in the 1990s, demographers are once again reporting population growth in nonmetropolitan areas (Beale, 1996). In Ohio, population growth and redistribution is associated with a variety of contemporary concerns such as open space and farmland preservation, agricultural and livestock siting, and local services funding. While this monograph does not address any specific rural-urban interface issue, understanding historic and current population growth patterns may provide insight about how population change may fuel conflicts in some parts of the state. In the following sections, population change data for Ohio, with special attention to rural and nonmetropolitan change, are reviewed. Following this analysis is a concluding section containing some observations about the policy implications of Ohio growth patterns on present and future growth management activities. 1 The authors would like to thank Larry Libby, Rosemary Gliem, and Molly Bean for their helpful comments during preperation of the manuscript as well as Greta Wyrick for assistance in editing the document. 4

6 Section 1: Comparison of Ohio and Other States Before focusing on population changes within the state of Ohio, it is useful to consider how Ohio s population compares to other states (Table 1.1). Ohio is the seventh most populous state in the United States, following California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. The statewide average population density of Ohio is 9 th highest in the nation, with 244 persons/square mile. The seven states with higher density are all located to the east of Ohio and include: New Jersey (890 persons/square mile), Rhode Island (650), Connecticut (594), Massachusetts (568), Maryland (392), New York (331), Delaware (273), and Pennsylvania (260). Ohio has the fifth largest rural population among all 50 states (Table 1.1). The U.S. Census Bureau defines a person as rural if he/she lives in a town of 2,500 residents or less or lives outside an incorporated or census designated place. In other words, a person is rural if he/she lives in a small town or in the open country. Table 1.1: Rural Population of Selected U.S. States and Change Since 1950 State 1990 Rural Population 1990 Rank 1950 Rural Population 1950 Rank % Change, 1950 to 1990 States with the Largest Rural Population in 1990 Pennsylvania 3,693, ,094, Texas 3,351, ,873, North Carolina 3,290, ,693, New York 2,826, ,147, OHIO 2,807, ,368, Michigan 2,739, ,868, Georgia 2,380, ,885, California 2,188, ,046, Florida 1,970, , Indiana 1,946, ,577, States with the Largest Rural Population Decline, 1950 to 1990 Iowa 1,093, ,370, Kansas 765, , Nebraska 534, , South Dakota 348, , North Dakota 298, , Hawaii 122, ,

7 The three states with the largest rural population, Pennsylvania, Texas, and North Carolina, all had 1990 rural populations greater than three million. New York, Ohio and Michigan are the next three states with large rural populations, each with about 2.8 million rural persons. Ohio had the fourth largest rural population in 1950 and the state s rural population grew 18.6 percent between 1950 and This increase was higher than the national rural population increase of 13.2 percent between 1950 and Rural population growth in Ohio contrasts with several U.S. states that have strong rural identities in the American imagination, such as Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and the Dakotas. These five states and Hawaii had the largest declines (between 16 and 34 percent) in rural population between 1950 and Section 2: Ohio s Rural and Urban Population, 1950 to 1990 As noted in the previous section, Ohio is a densely populated state with a relatively large urban and rural population. In this section, some basic facts about the changing rural and urban composition of the state since 1950 are considered. From 1950 to 1990, Ohio s total population grew from 7.9 million to 10.8 million residents, an increase of 36.5 percent (Table 2.1). The urban population grew 44.1 percent during this time period, from 5.6 million to 8.0 million, while the rural population grew from 2.3 million to 2.8 million (an 18.6 percent increase). Ohio has become slightly more urban since In 1950, 70 percent of Ohio residents lived in urban places while 74 percent did in The rural population declined from just under 30 percent of the total population in 1950 to about 26 percent in Table 2.1: Ohio Rural and Urban Population, 1950 to Year Total Urban Rural Urban Rural --population-- --percent ,946,627 5,578,274 2,368, ,706,406 7,123,171 2,583, ,652,017 8,025,697 2,626, ,797,630 7,918,259 2,879, ,847,115 8,039,037 2,808,

8 Growth in the rural and urban population has varied by decade since During the 1950 to 1960 period, the urban population grew 27.7 percent while the rural population grew only 9.1 percent. 2 Figure 2.1 illustrates these variations. Growth slowed in the 1960s, but urban growth was still much higher than rural growth (12.7 percent urban growth versus 1.7 percent rural growth). In the 1970s, there was actually a decline of 1.3 percent in Ohio s urban population while the rural population grew nearly 10 percent. During the 1980s, the population declined 2.5 percent while the urban population grew a modest 1.5 percent. Figure 2.1: Percent Population Change (Rural and Urban), 1950 to 1990 Percent Change Rural Urban Total Decade Section 3: Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Growth, 1950 to 1998 In addition to distinguishing between rural and urban, the census also identifies counties as metropolitan or nonmetropolitan. A county containing a central city with a population greater than 50,000 or a county closely tied to the large central city is designated a metropolitan county. Counties that are not part of a metropolitan area are designated as nonmetropolitan. Map 1 identifies the 15 metropolitan areas in Ohio. Due to the interconnections between the Cincinnati and Hamilton metropolitan areas and the Cleveland and Akron metropolitan areas, they have been designated consolidated metropolitan statistical areas. The U.S. Census identified 15 metropolitan areas or parts of metropolitan areas within Ohio in These 15 metropolitan areas encompass 39 counties and 44.8 percent of the state s land area. There are 49 nonmetropolitan counties in the state covering 55.6 percent of the land area (Map 1). 2 Some urban growth may be associated with rural places growing large enough to be designated urban as well as urban areas annexing rural areas into their boundaries. 7

9 Map 1: Ohio s Metropolitan Areas Williams Defiance Paulding Van Wert Mercer Fulton Henry Putnam Allen Lima Auglaize Shelby Lucas Toledo Wood Hancock Hardin Logan Ottawa Sandusky Erie Seneca Huron Wyandot Mansfield Crawford Marion Morrow Lorain Ashland Richland Medina Wayne Holmes Knox Union Coshocton Delaware Cuyahoga Portage Summit Stark Lake Ashtabula Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria Cleveland-Akron Akron Geauga Canton-Massillon Harrison Trumbull Youngstown Mahoning Columbiana Carroll Tuscarawas Jefferson Steubenville-Weirton (pt.) Darke Champaign Miami Preble Montgomery Greene Hamilton-Middletown Butler Hamilton Warren Clark Dayton-Springfield Cincinnati-Hamilton Cincinnati Clinton Highland Madison Fayette Clermont Brown Adams Columbus Franklin Pickaway Licking Muskingum Fairfield Perry Morgan Hocking Ross Athens Vinton Pike Meigs Jackson Scioto Gallia Lawrence Huntington-Ashland (pt.) Guernsey Noble Washington Wheeling (pt.) Belmont Monroe Parkersburg-Marietta (pt.) Map Layers County (Low Res) MSAcomb:1 CMSA:1 8

10 In 1950, there were nearly 8 million total residents in the state, 80 percent living in one of the 39 metropolitan counties (Table 3.1). The 1998 Census estimates indicate 81 percent of Ohio s 11.2 million residents live in a metropolitan county while 19 percent of the population resides in one of the nonmetropolitan counties. Table 3.1: Ohio Population by County Metro Character (1950 to 1998) Year Total Metro Nonmetro Metro Nonmetro --population-- --percent ,946,627 6,370,951 1,575, ,706,397 7,952,234 1,754, ,652,017 8,820,841 1,831, ,797,630 8,790,877 2,006, ,847,115 8,826,069 2,021, ,209,493 9,074,696 2,134, For the time period 1950 to 1998, Ohio s population has grown 41 percent. The population change in metropolitan counties for this time period is 42.4 percent and 35.5 percent in nonmetropolitan counties (Figure 3.1). 3 Looking at growth by decades, population change in metropolitan counties exceeded nonmetropolitan population change during the 1950s and 1960s. Metro counties grew about 25 percent during the 1950s while nonmetro counties grew just over 11 percent. Growth in metro counties during the 1960s slowed to about 11 percent, but still exceeded the 4.4 percent population growth in nonmetropolitan counties. In the 1970s, Ohio s metropolitan counties experienced modest population loss (.3 percent loss) while nonmetropolitan counties grew 9.6 percent. Nonmetropolitan growth during the 1970s was documented nationwide and has been referred to as the nonmetropolitan turnaround, since it represented a reversal of historic national patterns of nonmetropolitan population decline. Population change in Ohio during the 1980s was modest, with increases of less than one percent in both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. Population change in the 1990s, according to U.S. Census estimates, show percent population growth in nonmetropolitan counties is double the increase in metropolitan counties (5.6 percent versus 2.8 percent). 3 Some of the counties classified as metropolitan in the 1990s were nonmetropolitan in early decades. For this analysis, the 1990s metropolitan status is used for all time points for accurate comparison. 9

11 Figure 3.1: Population Change of Metro and Nonmetro Ohio, Percent Change Metro Nonmetro Total Decade Breakdown by Metropolitan Character A metropolitan county can be further distinguished as either a central county or an outlying county. A central county contains the metropolitan areas largest city or 50 percent of the county s population is part of the central city s urbanized area. Outlying metropolitan counties have smaller urban populations but are closely tied to the central counties, such as through commuting patterns. In Ohio there are 21 central metropolitan counties and 18 outlying metro. For this analysis, three counties (Clermont, Licking, and Portage) are treated as outlying metro counties rather than central metro counties due to several factors. These three counties just met several of the criteria for achieving central status with the 1990 census (for example, each just met the 50 percent urban criteria). These three counties are comparatively more like outlying metropolitan counties than central metro counties in demographic characteristics and as a matter of practical reality (locals would see the county as more like the outlying than the core metro county). For this analysis, 21 counties are grouped as outlying metro counties (labeled as fringe metro counties in this report), 18 are central metropolitan counties (labeled as core metro counties). The remaining 49 counties are nonmetropolitan. 4 Map 2 identifies the core and fringe designation for Ohio s metropolitan counties. The further distinction is made between Ohio s largest metro regions, which are Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus each with metro populations greater than 1 million, and the smaller metro areas of the state. 4 It is possible to distinguish between nonmetropolitan counties that are adjacent to metropolitan areas and those that are not. Since Ohio has so many metropolitan areas, few (9) counties in the state are not adjacent to metropolitan areas making the distinction less meaningful in this state. 10

12 Map 2: Metropolitan Character of Ohio Counties Fulton Williams Defiance Henry Paulding Putnam Van Wert Allen Lima Mercer Auglaize Shelby Lake Ashtabula Lucas Ottawa Geauga Cuyahoga Wood Sandusky Erie Lorain Cleveland-Akron Trumbull Seneca Huron Medina Summit Portage Hancock Mahoning Mansfield Wyandot Crawford Ashland Wayne Stark Richland Canton-Massillon Columbiana Hardin Marion Morrow Holmes Carroll Logan Knox Tuscarawas Jefferson Union Delaware Coshocton Harrison Toledo Youngstown Steubenville-Weirton (pt.) Darke Champaign Miami Butler Clark Dayton-Springfield Madison PrebleMontgomery Greene Fayette Warren Cincinnati-Hamilton Clinton Hamilton Highland Clermont Brown Adams Columbus Franklin Pickaway Ross Pike Scioto Licking Fairfield Hocking Vinton Jackson Lawrence Perry Gallia Muskingum Athens Meigs Morgan Huntington-Ashland (pt.) Guernsey Noble Washington Wheeling (pt.) Belmont Monroe Parkersburg-Marietta (pt.) Metropolitan Character Core, Large Metro Fringe, Large Metro Core, Small Metro Fringe, Small Metro Nonmetro MSAs outlined in black 11

13 Population growth in Ohio s metropolitan counties has not been uniform. The population of Ohio s large and small core metropolitan counties peaked in 1970, while the populations of the fringe counties of the largest metropolitan areas have steadily grown every decade since percent of Ohio s 1950 population was located in one of the seven core counties of the three largest metro regions. In 1998, an estimated 41.2 percent of Ohioans lived in one of these seven counties. Twenty-five percent of Ohio s 1950 population lived in one of the small core metropolitan counties falling to 22.5 percent in 1998 (computed from Table 3.2). In 1950, the 12 fringe counties of the largest metro areas contained 6.5 percent of Ohio s total population. By 1998, these 12 counties contained 11.6 percent of the state s total population. Between 1950 and 1998, these 12 fringe metro counties grew from just over a half million to nearly 1.3 million, a net increase of 800,000 (Table 3.2) or about 151 percent (Table 3.3). Population change in both large and small core metropolitan counties during the 1950s was over 22 percent, moderating to around 10 percent during the 1960s, and declining or remaining relatively stable since Fringe counties of smaller metro regions have tended to experience population change similar to nonmetropolitan counties, having grown 34.6 percent since 1950 similar to the 35.5 percent growth in nonmetro counties. Table 3.2: Population Change by Metro Character, 1950 to Nonmetro (49) 1,575,676 1,754,163 1,831,176 2,006,753 2,021,046 2,134,797 Metro (39) 6,370,951 7,952,234 8,820,841 8,790,877 8,826,069 9,074,696 Large Core (7) 3,398,270 4,273,823 4,712,188 4,511,725 4,532,899 4,623,379 Large Fringe (12) 517, , ,481 1,032,539 1,128,964 1,298,527 Small Core (11) 1,989,381 2,435,535 2,675,105 2,632,475 2,558,677 2,525,726 Small Fringe(9) 465, , , , , ,064 Total All Counties 7,946,627 9,706,397 10,652,017 10,797,630 10,847,115 11,209,493 Table 3.3: Percent Population Growth by Metro Character, by decade 1950 to percent-- Nonmetro Counties (49) Metro Counties (39) Large Core (7) Large Fringe (12) Small Core (11) Small Fringe (9) Total All Counties (88)

14 Section 4: Focus on Population Change in Counties and Metro Regions At the county or regional level, Ohio s population change has varied tremendously as well. In this section, some of the features of population change in Ohio s three largest metropolitan areas are considered as well as population change in selected counties. Ohio s three largest metropolitan regions are Cincinnati-Hamilton, Cleveland-Akron, and Columbus. 5 The Ohio counties of the Cincinnati-Hamilton region are Brown, Clermont, Hamilton, Warren and Butler County. The Cleveland-Akron region is comprised of Portage, Summit, Ashtabula, Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, and Medina counties. The Columbus metropolitan region is composed of Delaware, Fairfield, Franklin, Licking, Madison, and Pickaway. Change in the Three Largest Metropolitan Regions Tables 4.1 and 4.2 provide some detail about population change in the three largest metropolitan regions. Ohio s three largest metropolitan regions, comprised of 19 counties, were home to 49.3 percent of the state s total population in By 1998, the proportion of the state s population living in these three regions had risen to 52.8 percent. Cleveland-Akron is the largest metropolitan region in Ohio, with 2.2 million residents in 1950 and growing to over 2.9 million in 1998 (Table 4.1). The population of the Columbus metropolitan area has grown consistently since 1950, increasing percent from 1950 to The Cleveland-Akron region grew rapidly from 1950 to 1970, but the population of this region has fallen from its 1970 peak. Cincinnati-Hamilton has experienced consistent growth, but at half the pace of Columbus during the 1950 to 1998 time period (58.2 percent versus percent). Table 4.1: Population of Ohio s Three Largest Metro Areas, 1950 to Cincinnati-Hamilton 974,063 1,234,616 1,357,510 1,391,690 1,456,769 1,540,619 Cleveland-Akron 2,233,417 2,825,417 3,098,513 2,938,277 2,859,644 2,911,683 Columbus 708, ,532 1,125,646 1,214,297 1,345,450 1,469,604 5 Cincinnati-Hamilton and Cleveland-Akron are consolidated metropolitan areas each comprised of two metropolitan areas that are closely tied to one another. 13

15 Table 4.2: Population Change in Ohio s Three Largest Metro Areas, 1950 to percent-- Cincinnati-Hamilton Cleveland-Akron Columbus Change in Selected Ohio Counties Table A.1 (in the appendix) contains three sets of population data for Ohio s 88 counties. Counties are rank ordered by selected population attributes in each column of the table. The home counties of Cleveland (Cuyahoga), Columbus (Franklin), and Cincinnati (Hamilton) have the largest population of all Ohio counties. For the time period 1950 to 1998, 13 Ohio counties have grown over 100 percent, five have grown more than 200 percent, and one Ohio county (Clermont) has grown over 300 percent (see Map 3). Of the 10 fastest growing Ohio counties since 1950, nine of the 10 are associated with one of the three largest metro regions. Clermont County, part of the Cincinnati metro region, grew 317 percent between 1950 and Warren County, of the Cincinnati region has grown 279 percent. Medina and Geauga counties have grown 256 and 233 percent respectively, in the Cleveland metro region. Delaware County, in the Columbus metro region, has grown 204 percent during the 1950 to 1998 time period. Six Ohio counties lost population during the 1950 to 1998 time period. Belmont County, part of the Wheeling metro region, and Jefferson, part of the Steubenville metro region have declined over 20 percent since 1950 (22.7 and 21.2 percent respectively). Harrison County, a nonmetropolitan county adjacent to the Wheeling metro region has lost 15.5 percent of its population since Scioto, Mahoning, and Cuyahoga counties experienced declines of between 0 and 4 percent during this time period. Since 1990, 19 Ohio counties have grown an estimated 10 percent or more. Four counties have grown nearly 20 percent or more. Delaware County leads the list, with estimated growth of 37.8 percent since Warren County has grown an estimated 28.2 percent. Union County, a nonmetropolitan county adjacent to the Columbus metro region has grown 23.5 percent. Fairfield County, another county in the Columbus metro region has grown an estimated 19.8 percent in the 1990s. 14

16 Map 3: Population Change by County, 1950 to 1998 Williams Defiance Fulton Henry Lucas Wood Ottawa Sandusky Erie Lorain Cuyahoga Lake Geauga Ashtabula Trumbull Paulding Putnam Hancock Seneca Huron Medina Portage Summit Mahoning Van Wert Allen Mercer Auglaize Shelby WyandotCrawford Ashland Wayne Stark Richland Columbiana Hardin Marion Holmes Carroll Morrow Tuscarawas Logan Knox Jefferson Union Delaware Coshocton Harrison Darke PrebleMontgomery Greene Butler Hamilton Miami Warren Clermont Champaign Clark Clinton Brown Highland Madison Fayette Adams Franklin Pickaway Ross Pike Scioto Licking Fairfield Hocking Vinton Jackson Lawrence Perry Gallia Guernsey Muskingum Athens Meigs Morgan Noble Washington Belmont Monroe Population Change % Change, 1950 to 1998 Population Loss 0 to 49 percent 50 to 99 percent 100 to 199 percent greater than 200 percent MSAs outlined in black 15

17 Fourteen Ohio counties are estimated to have lost population during the 1990s. Eight of the nine counties declining two percent or more during the 1990s are metropolitan counties. Jefferson County is estimated to have declined 7.1 percent; Mahoning County, part of the Youngstown metro area, has declined 3.6 percent; and, Lucas, part of the Toledo metro area, has declined 3 percent. Table A.2 (in the appendix) contains three sets of rural population data for Ohio s 88 counties. Counties are rank ordered in each of the table s columns. Eleven Ohio counties had 1990 rural populations greater than 50,000 (see Map 4). Nine of these 11 counties are parts of metropolitan areas. Stark County, part of the Canton metropolitan area, has the largest rural population, 80,773. Clermont County, part of the Cincinnati metro region has a rural population of 70,424. Geauga County, part of the Cleveland metro region, has the third largest rural population with 68,406 rural residents. Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland is located, only has 2,443 rural residents. The next counties with the fewest rural residents are Vinton and Noble. Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton counties have the smallest percent of their total population defined as rural (.2, 3.2 and 3.2 percent rural respectively). Eight of the ten counties with the fastest growing rural population from 1950 to 1990 are metropolitan counties (Appendix Table A.2 and Map 5). Four of the ten are part of the Columbus metro area. Geauga County, in the Cleveland metro area, had the largest rural population increase during this time period, 158 percent. Delaware County s rural population doubled during this forty-year period (increasing 100 percent). Medina County, in the Cleveland metro region, grew 90.8 percent. In addition to Delaware County, Fairfield, Pickaway, and Licking Counties of the Columbus metro area all experienced rural population growth of 74 percent or greater from 1950 to Metropolitan core counties have experienced the sharpest decline in rural population (Map 5). Cuyahoga county s rural population has declined nearly 91 percent since Montgomery County, where Dayton is located, has had a 53.4 percent rural population decline. Franklin County (Columbus), Summit County (Akron), and Hamilton County (Cincinnati) have all had rural population declines of around 50 percent. 16

18 Map 4: Total Rural Population by County, 1990 Williams Defiance Fulton Henry Lucas Wood Ottawa Sandusky Erie Lorain Cuyahoga Lake Geauga Ashtabula Trumbull Paulding Putnam Hancock Seneca Huron Medina Portage Summit Mahoning Van Wert Allen Mercer Auglaize Shelby WyandotCrawford Ashland Wayne Stark Richland Columbiana Hardin Marion Holmes Carroll Morrow Tuscarawas Logan Knox Jefferson Union Delaware Coshocton Harrison Darke PrebleMontgomery Greene Butler Hamilton Miami Warren Clermont Champaign Clark Clinton Brown Highland Madison Fayette Adams Franklin Pickaway Ross Pike Scioto Licking Fairfield Hocking Vinton Jackson Lawrence Perry Gallia Guernsey Muskingum Athens Meigs Morgan Noble Washington Belmont Monroe Rural Population (1990) Rural Population, 1990 MSAs outlined in black 17

19 Map 5: Rural Population Change, 1950 to 1990 Williams Defiance Fulton Henry Lucas Wood Ottawa Sandusky Erie Lorain Cuyahoga Lake Geauga Ashtabula Trumbull Paulding Putnam Hancock Seneca Huron Medina Portage Summit Mahoning Van Wert Allen Mercer Auglaize Shelby WyandotCrawford Ashland Wayne Stark Richland Columbiana Hardin Marion Holmes Carroll Morrow Tuscarawas Logan Knox Jefferson Union Delaware Coshocton Harrison Darke PrebleMontgomery Greene Butler Hamilton Miami Warren Clermont Champaign Clark Clinton Brown Highland Madison Fayette Adams Franklin Pickaway Ross Pike Scioto Licking Fairfield Hocking Vinton Jackson Lawrence Perry Gallia Guernsey Muskingum Athens Meigs Morgan Noble Washington Belmont Monroe Rural Population Percent Change, Rural Pop. Loss 0 to 50 percent increase 50 to 100 percent increase 100 percent increase or more MSAs outlined in black 18

20 Section 5: Rural Population Change by Metro/Nonmetro Character Because of the way metropolitan and rural status are designated, rural residents can be found in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. For example, a county that has been designated as metropolitan (with central city of greater than 50,000) may have within its boundaries residents who are urban (living in urban areas of 2,500 residents or more) and rural (living in communities of less than 2,500 or the open country). Rural population can grow as a result of people moving into small towns or open country neighborhoods, but there is a limit. A rural place that grows larger than 2,500 residents will be designated as urban in a subsequent census and urban areas can annex rural country neighborhoods as its borders expand outward. In this section, the rural and urban composition of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties of Ohio is examined for the time period 1950 to Tables 5.1 and 5.2 show the population and changes in rural and urban population within metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. In 1990 only 9.2 percent of Ohio s 8 million urban residents (residing in urban place of 2,500 or more residents) live in nonmetropolitan counties. Perhaps surprisingly, though, 54.5 percent of Ohio s 2.8 million rural residents are found in metropolitan counties (Table 5.1). During the 1960s and 1970s, percent growth of urban population was larger in metropolitan counties than in nonmetropolitan counties. In the 1950s, the size of the urban population in metropolitan counties grew 28.8 percent, but grew only 13.5 percent during the 1960s. In nonmetropolitan counties, urban population grew 18.2 percent during the 1950s and 5.1 percent during the 1960s. During the 1970s, urban population growth was relatively flat in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. During the 1970s, Ohio s rural population grew 9.6 percent, with 15.5 percent rural population growth in nonmetropolitan counties and only 5.5 percent in metropolitan counties during the 1970s. Table 5.1: Rural and Urban Population by Metropolitan Character of County Totals Rural Urban Rural Urban Nonmetro Metro Nonmetro Metro ,368,353 5,578, ,411 1,391, ,265 4,979, ,583,235 7,123,171 1,045,940 1,537, ,232 6,414, ,626,320 8,025,670 1,086,802 1,539, ,374 7,281, ,879,371 7,918,259 1,254,975 1,624, ,778 7,166, ,808,078 8,039,037 1,277,978 1,530, ,068 7,295,969 19

21 Table 5.2: Growth of Urban and Rural Population by Metro Character percent-- URBAN Metro urban Nonmetro urban RURAL Metro rural Nonmetro rural In the 1980s, the rural population decreased 5.8 percent in metropolitan counties but increased 1.8 percent in nonmetropolitan counties. Breakdown by Core and Fringe Metro Status Table 5.3 and Figure 5.1 illustrate a steady decline in the proportion of Ohio s rural population living in the core counties of the largest metropolitan areas and steady growth in the proportion found in fringe counties of these large metro areas. The proportion of Ohio s rural population in nonmetro areas has gradually edged up during this time period as well. In 1950, there were 321,061 rural residents or 13.5 percent of Ohio s total rural population located within one of the seven large core metropolitan counties and 490,966 rural residents or 20.7 percent of the state s total rural population located in one of the small core metropolitan counties. By 1990, only 7.1 percent of the state s total rural population were located in the large core metro counties and 15.9 percent was located in the small core metro counties. In 1950, the fringe counties of the largest metro counties contained 336,929 rural residents or 14.2 percent of the state s rural population. By 1990, the fringe counties of the largest metro areas contained 584,491 rural residents or 20.8 percent of the state s rural population. Table 5.3: Distribution of Rural Population by Metropolitan Character Nonmetro 976,411 1,045,940 1,086,802 1,254,975 1,277,978 Metro 1,391,942 1,537,295 1,539,518 1,624,396 1,530,100 Large Core 321, , , , ,285 Large Fringe 336, , , , ,491 Small Core 490, , , , ,795 Small Fringe 242, , , , ,529 Rural Total 2,368,353 2,583,235 2,626,320 2,879,371 2,808,078 20

22 Figure 5.1: Distribution of Rural Population by Metro Character ( ) Percent of Rural Pop. 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nonmetro 41% 40% 41% 44% 46% Large Core 14% 12% 9% 8% 7% Large Fringe 14% 17% 19% 20% 21% Small Core 21% 20% 20% 17% 16% Small Fringe 10% 11% 10% 11% 11% Year One can infer that some of the 122,776 decline in rural residents in the large, core metro counties is the result of rural residences being either annexed into a larger urban area or rural communities growing larger than 2,500 residents. One might also anticipate that future population increases in fringe counties will lead to more formerly rural places achieving urban status as the central city and suburbs further expand. Table 5.5 shows rural population change by metro character of the largest metro areas. During the 1950s, rural growth in the fringe counties was 33.9 percent. Rural growth moderated some during the 1960s and 1970s (11.0 and 15.2 percent respectively during these two decades). In the 1980s, the rural population grew slightly in the fringe counties of the large metro areas while rural population fell in all other types of metropolitan counties. For the entire time period, 1950 to 1990, percent growth of the rural population in the fringe counties of the largest metropolitan areas exceeded growth in nonmetro counties, 73.5 percent compared to 30.0 percent. During the same time period, the rural population of the core counties of the large and small metropolitan areas fell (declining 38.2 and 9.0 percent respectively). 21

23 Table 5.5: Rural Population Growth by Metro Character (1950 to 1990) percent-- Nonmetro Counties Metro Counties Large Core Large Fringe Med/Small Core Med Small Fringe Total Section 6: Brief Review of Sources of Population Change, 1990 to 1998 Underlying the patterns of population change reported in the previous sections is a range of social and economic factors. While fully exploring these factors is beyond the scope of this paper, it is possible to identify some of the components of population change from 1990 to Population change can be a result of natural increase (where births exceeded deaths in a county), natural decrease (where deaths exceeded births), or migration. Table 6.1 identifies the source of estimated population change by metro and nonmetro character from 1990 to Aggregate population change across three categories is reported, natural increase of the local population, net domestic migration, and other (either international or federal migration and a residual). The core counties of the largest metropolitan areas have lost an estimated 174,369 residents from 1990 to 1998 due to domestic migration (Figure 6.1). This decline, though, has been offset by over 215,000 more births than deaths in these counties. In the small core metropolitan counties, though, only 83,534 more births over deaths occurred to offset a net migration loss of over 127,000 residents. Nearly two-thirds of the estimated population increase in fringe counties of the largest metro areas was the result of domestic in-migration while the other 37 percent came from natural increase. In nonmetropolitan Ohio, natural increase was the largest component of the estimated 5.6 percent population increase occurring during the 1990 to 1998 time period. About two thirds of the change was a result of natural increase and the other third associated with domestic migration. 22

24 Table 6.1: Components of Population Change by Metropolitan Character, 1990 to 1998 Population Change 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 (50,000) (100,000) (150,000) (200,000) Large Core Large Fringe Small Core Small Fringe Nonmetro Natural Increase 215,261 63,074 83,534 16,115 74,086 Domestic Migration (174,369) 110,277 (127,194) 6,046 41,707 Other 49,588 (3,788) 10,709 (626) (2,042) Metro Type Section 7: Conclusions and Implications Ohio is a densely populated state with a large rural and urban population. Variations in population change around the rural-urban interface since 1950 present a variety of policy problems. In this last section, a few implications of this data analysis are discussed. The most significant finding of this analysis is the identification of a set of 12 counties that can be characterized as being at the heart of the rural-urban interface. These 12 counties are all on the fringe of the three largest metropolitan areas and have consistently grown faster than any other set of counties in the state. The 12 counties include: Brown, Clermont, and Warren from the Cincinnati-Hamilton CMSA; Delaware, Licking, Fairfield, Pickaway, and Madison of the Columbus MSA; and Medina, Portage, Geauga, and Ashtabula from the Cleveland-Akron CMSA. In 1990, each of these counties had large proportions (greater than 40%) of their population that was defined as rural. All but one of these 12 counties (Ashtabula being the exception) rank in the top 20 Ohio counties in terms of percent population increase from 1950 to 1990; six rank in the top seven Ohio counties in terms of percent estimated population increase from 1990 to 1998; eight rank in the top ten counties with the largest percent increase in rural population from 1950 to

25 Population changes in these counties present some unique challenges to local leaders and development professionals. In 1990, 21 percent of the states 2.8 million rural residents lived in one of these 12 counties up from 14 percent in Rural development has long been a public policy concern, and the traditional focus on underdevelopment and lack of opportunities in rural areas continues to be a significant concern in parts of Ohio and the nation. But this data indicate that another type of rural exists, requiring a different type of rural development. One development issue is how to provide and maintain basic services. A second development issue is maintaining the rural and agricultural character despite significant population increase. If one of the attractions of these rural-urban fringe counties is their rural character, then being able to maintain this character becomes an important policy and planning concern. Another concern is how sustained, relatively rapid growth in these rural-urban fringe counties affects long-time residents of these communities. Rapid growth can impact local housing costs, cost of providing services, and residents personal sense and experience of community (see Pooley s 1997 Time magazine cover story discussing this issue and profiling Wilmington, OH). Population growth in the countryside may also have adverse impacts on farming in these counties. At some point, the challenge of farming in a semiurban environment may force some producers to either exit agriculture or move to less populated areas. Ohio is confronted with a number of interesting challenges as a result of how its population is distributed. Ohio is a diverse state with areas that are very rural, areas that are very urban, and a variety of combinations in between. Managing this diversity can be a challenging task because the issues and concerns of each type of area are different. Making this even more challenging is the on-going redistribution of the state s population, with some areas growing over 200 percent during the last 50 years while others have declined. This research does not provide any answers to some of the possible problems that might arise from this uneven change and development, but it does lay the foundation for future research that can more precisely identify some of the changes. Future papers in this series will focus on agricultural change and changes in incorporated places, with particular attention to the changes occurring in the 12 counties at ground zero of the rural-urban interface. 24

26 Works Cited Beale, Calvin Nonmetro Population Rebound Continues and Broadens. Rural Conditions and Trends. 7(3):8-12. Bureau of Statistics, Treasury Department Statistical abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office. Fuguitt, Glenn V The Nonmetropolitan Population Turnaround. Annual Review of Sociology. 11: Pooley, Eric The Great Escape. Time. 150(Dec. 8): U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1999a. County Population estimates for July 1, Washington D.C. U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1999b. County Population estimates for July 1, Washington D.C. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census U.S. Census of Population and Housing. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 25

27 Appendix 26

28 Table A.1: Population Change in Ohio Counties, Rank Ordered Total Population (1998) Population Change: 1950 to 1998 Population Change: 1990 to 1998 County T1998 County Percent County Percent 1 Cuyahoga 1,380,696 Clermont Delaware Franklin 1,021,194 Warren Warren Hamilton 847,403 Medina Union Montgomery 558,427 Geauga Fairfield Summit 537,730 Delaware Medina Lucas 448,542 Lake Clermont Stark 373,112 Greene Brown Butler 330,428 Fairfield Holmes Lorain 282,149 Portage Pike Mahoning 255,165 Butler Hocking Trumbull 225,066 Franklin Morrow Lake 223,779 Holmes Butler Clermont 175,960 Wood Highland Portage 151,222 Licking 93.8 Clinton Greene 146,607 Union 90.9 Adams Warren 146,033 Lorain 90.4 Knox Clark 145,341 Pike 90.1 Madison Medina 144,019 Wayne 87.6 Pickaway Licking 136,896 Madison 86.4 Ashland Richland 127,342 Brown 83.6 Carroll Fairfield 123,998 Morrow 83.3 Vinton Wood 119,498 Pickaway 83.1 Geauga Columbiana 111,521 Shelby 66.6 Logan Wayne 110,125 Fulton 63.8 Noble Allen 107,139 Miami 60.1 Ross Ashtabula 103,300 Preble 59.6 Fulton Miami 98,147 Ashland 58.1 Perry Delaware 92,209 Clinton 56.3 Wayne Geauga 88,788 Hancock 55.7 Gallia Tuscarawas 88,608 Auglaize 53.7 Preble Muskingum 84,470 Defiance 53.6 Jackson Scioto 80,355 Huron 53.2 Greene Erie 78,279 Carroll 52.8 Huron Ross 75,473 Knox 51.1 Licking Jefferson 74,558 Erie 48.9 Franklin Belmont 69,175 Hocking 48.6 Portage Hancock 68,922 Logan 47.5 Champaign Marion 64,774 Mercer 45.5 Shelby Lawrence 64,427 Williams 45.0 Auglaize Washington 63,413 Highland 43.2 Wood Sandusky 62,216 Washington 42.8 Tuscarawas Athens 61,490 Champaign 42.5 Miami Huron 60,293 Trumbull 41.6 Hancock Seneca 60,099 Montgomery 40.2 Guernsey Darke 54,180 Putnam 39.6 Mercer Pickaway 53,731 Richland 39.5 Meigs

29 Table A.1: Population Change in Ohio Counties, Rank Ordered (cont.) Total Population (1998) Population Change: 1950 to 1998 Population Change: 1990 to 1998 County T1998 County Percent County Percent 47 Knox 53,309 Adams 39.5 Summit Ashland 52,237 Ottawa 39.1 Putnam Shelby 47,457 Ross 38.7 Lawrence Crawford 47,217 Sandusky 34.9 Lorain Auglaize 47,103 Gallia 34.2 Lake Logan 46,204 Athens 34.1 Fayette Preble 43,226 Henry 33.4 Ashtabula Fulton 41,895 Paulding 33.4 Athens Madison 41,576 Stark 31.8 Columbiana Mercer 41,198 Ashtabula 31.3 Muskingum Guernsey 40,994 Lawrence 31.2 Williams Ottawa 40,983 Summit 31.1 Henry Brown 40,795 Clark 30.2 Wyandot Highland 40,364 Marion 29.7 Morgan Clinton 39,979 Darke 29.6 Ottawa Defiance 39,824 Fayette 26.3 Hardin Union 39,494 Tuscarawas 26.0 Erie Champaign 38,182 Crawford 21.9 Coshocton Williams 38,001 Allen 21.5 Washington Holmes 37,841 Perry 18.2 Stark Coshocton 36,115 Jackson 17.3 Defiance Putnam 35,255 Hamilton 17.1 Darke Perry 34,290 Coshocton 16.0 Richland Gallia 33,422 Wyandot 15.4 Marion Jackson 32,563 Seneca 13.4 Seneca Hardin 31,725 Lucas 13.4 Sandusky Morrow 31,467 Muskingum 13.3 Harrison VanWert 30,200 Morgan 13.2 Scioto Henry 29,923 Vinton 13.0 VanWert Carroll 29,095 Columbiana 12.7 Monroe Hocking 29,004 VanWert 12.0 Trumbull Adams 28,587 Hardin 10.6 Crawford Fayette 28,493 Guernsey 6.6 Clark Pike 27,775 Noble 5.0 Paulding Meigs 24,006 Meigs 3.4 Hamilton Wyandot 22,826 Monroe 0.0 Cuyahoga Paulding 20,078 Cuyahoga -0.6 Allen Harrison 16,097 Mahoning -1.0 Belmont Monroe 15,357 Scioto -3.1 Montgomery Morgan 14,536 Harrison Lucas Noble 12,343 Belmont Mahoning Vinton 12,158 Jefferson Jefferson