Addressing America s Energy Challenges. Steven E. Koonin EWNP Symposium Duke University March 8, 2012

Transcription

1 Addressing America s Energy Challenges Steven E. Koonin EWNP Symposium Duke University March 8,

2 Report on the First Quadrennial Technology Review Report DOE/S September, 2011

3 TODAY S ENERGY LANDSCAPE 5

4 U.S. Energy Flows in 2009 Total energy input is approximately 95 Quads Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 6

5 Energy supply has changed on decadal scales 100% 90% U.S. Energy Supply Since % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Hydro Coal Wood Source: EIA 7

6 U.S. Energy Challenges Energy Security Competitiveness Environmental Impacts Monthly Spot Price OK WTI Share of Reserves Held by NOC/IOC Global Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturing (2009) Worldwide Shipments of Solar Photovoltaics(MW) CO2 Emissions in OECD vs non-oecd Countries Water Withdrawals in % By Category (2005) Thermoelectric Power $/bbl Public supply Domestic Irrigation Livestock Aquaculture Industrial Mining percentage Jan-1986 Jul-1987 Jan-1989 Jul-1990 Jan-1992 Jul-1993 Jan-1995 Jul-1996 Jan-1998 Jul-1999 Jan-2001 Jul-2002 Jan-2004 Jul-2005 Jan-2007 Jul-2008 Jan-2010 Jul-2011 Billion metric tons of CO2

7 U.S. Energy Flows in 2009 Total energy input is approximately 95 Quads Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 11

8 Six Strategies 12

9 The Transport Logic We are coupled to a globaloil market Balance of payments, high and volatile prices, insecurity, GHGs Demand is growing, easy resource is concentrating 13

10 Trends in U.S. Consumption, Production, and Net Imports of Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels, Source: EIA 14

11 Sources of U.S. Net Petroleum Imports, 2010 The United States gets close to 50% of its petroleum imports from the Western Hemisphere and less than 20% from the Persian Gulf. Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly (May 2011). 15

12 Global Liquids Production, Source: EIA 16

13 US liquid fuel use February

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15 EISA RFS2 Mandates 15 BGY Cap Conventional Renewable Fuel (Corn Ethanol) Advanced Biofuels (include cellulosic biofuels & other than starch-based ethanol) 2012 Production Targets (Billions of Gallons) Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) Conventional (Starch) Biofuels Biomass-based diesel Cellulosic Biofuels Other Advanced Biofuels

16 The Transport Logic We are coupled to a globaloil market Balance of payments, high and volatile prices, insecurity, GHGs Demand is growing, easy resource is concentrating Increased domestic production fixes jobs, balance of payments; not price We cannot produce enough fast enough to affect the global market; OPEC distorts Conventional and unconventional crude, biofuels, CTL/CTL/CBTL/ sold at oil price Go beyond energy independence to price independence (cf UK fuel riots of 2000) 20

17 Saudi, GOM, and U.S. ethanol production Source: EIA 21

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19 The Transport Logic We are coupled to a globaloil market Balance of payments, high and volatile prices, insecurity, GHGs Demand is growing, easy resource is concentrating Increased domestic production fixes jobs, balance of payments; not price We cannot produce enough fast enough to affect the global market; OPEC distorts Conventional and unconventional crude, biofuels, CTL/CTL/CBTL/ sold at oil price Go beyond energy independence to price independence (cf UK fuel riots of 2000) Must decouple from the global oil market Reduce oil demand materially through efficiency Shift LDVs to a non-fungible fuel (Grid? Hydrogen? Natural Gas?) Advanced biofuels for the remaining HDV demand Strategies(ordered by cost-effectiveness and time-to-impact) Increasing vehicle efficiency -nearest-term impact with existing technology. Electrifying the light duty fleet - a graceful transition: HEVs to PHEVs to BEVs Deploying alternative hydrocarbon fuels -biasedtoward fuels for HDVs 23

20 Total Vehicle Fuel Use and Total U.S. Road Vehicles in 2009 Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book, 30th Edition (2011) 24

21 Six Strategies 25

22 Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Trends: Source: EPA 26

23 Projected Reductions in the Fuel Consumption of Large Cars and Small Trucks through Technology Source: National Research Council with data adapted by a National Petroleum Council study committee; joint study by the Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (EPA/NHTSA). 27

24 New vehicle technology takes time 28

25 Comparison of New-Vehicle Potential Fuel-Saving Technologies for Seven Heavy-Duty Vehicle Types Adapted from Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (NAS 2009) 30

26 Turbulence Modeling on Heavy Duty Trucks Simulated air flow around a heavy-duty vehicle. The turbulent flow between the tractor and the trailor and the vortex underneath the tractor increases drag and fuel consumption. SmartTruck UnderTray add-on accessories predict 12% drag reduction and 6.9% increase in EPA-certified fuel efficiency. 31

27 Six Strategies 32

28 Relation of Fuel Prices to Crude Oil Price, Data from EIA and Nebraska Energy Office 33

29 Progressive Electrification of the Light-Duty Fleet Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Plug-in Electric Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Batteries Challenges with Batteries and Motors Adequate supply chain Charging Cost Performance Physical Characteristics Rare-earth elements in permanent magnet motors Lithium in batteries OEM & component manufacturing capacity Infrastructure Standardization of chargers and grid interface Charging times Consumer behavior 34

30 Impacts of Plug-In Electric Range and Charging Infrastructure From a forthcoming Electric Power Research Institute report, Understanding the Effects and Infrastructure Needs of Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Charging. 35

31 Current Fueling Stations in the United States Source: DOE EERE (for alternative fueling stations) and EIA (for gasoline stations) 36

32 Estimated Supply Impacts of Meeting 50% of Today s LDV Demand by Various Alternative Fuels 37

33 Six Strategies 38

34 Life-Cycle Carbon Emissions for Various Transportation Fuels CTL = coal to liquids, CCS = carbon capture and storage, BTL = biomass to liquids, CBTL = coal and biomass to liquids Source: America's Energy Future Panel on Alternative Liquid Transportation Fuels (2009) 39

35 Biomass can provide significant carbon Fuel Fossil Agriculture Biomass 1000 Annual USCarbon (Mt C) 15% of Transportation Fuels 40

36 Feedstocks Feedstock Production & Logistics Energy crops Agricultural byproducts Waste Streams Algae Coal Natural Gas Platforms / Pathways Cellulosic Sugar Platform Enzymatic Hydrolysis Pyrolysis Oil Platform Fast Pyrolysis Syngas Platform Gasification Algal and other Bio-Oils Sugars Liquid Bio-oil Raw syngas Lipid (Oil) Platform Fermentation Upgrading Filtration & Clean-up Transesterification Catalytic Upgrading Other enzymatic/biochemical methods Products Co or By Products R E F I N I N G Power Ethanol Methanol Butanol Olefins Aromatics Gasoline Diesel Jet Dimethyl Ether Heat and Power 41

37 The Stationary Logic Generation, transmission, and demand are interdependent More complicated than transport The U.S. is energy independent here Competitiveness and environmental impacts come to the fore. Strengthening domestic innovation and manufacturing capabilities Keep energy affordable while keeping it clean Strategies (ordered by cost-effectiveness and time-to-impact) Increasing energy efficiency in buildings and industry -most immediate route to increasing energy productivity. Modernizing the grid will not only increase reliability and security, but also give greater control to meet clean energy aspirations in other strategies. Deploying clean electricity -accommodates retirement of existing generators and reduces environmental impacts (greenhouse gas emissions, water, ). 43

38 Six Strategies 44

39 U.S. Energy Use in Residential and Commercial Buildings in 2008 Source: DOE Buildings Energy Data Book 45

40 An understanding of the interfaces between all building subsystems is needed for maximum energy efficiency Windows & Lighting HVAC Appliances Building Materials Onsite Power & Heat Building SPICE program: Tools to Design New Buildings With Embedded Energy Analysis Natural Ventilation, Indoor Environment Thermal & Electrical Storage Building Operating Platform (BOP) Sensors, Communication, Controls, Real-Time Optimization

41 Six Strategies 49

42 GRID MODERNIZATION 50

43 The U.S. Grid The numbers > 200,000 miles of transmission lines distribute approx. 1 TW of power Over 3,500 utility organizations Desiderata Reliability Efficiency Security Flexibility to integrate intermittent renewables Two-way flow of information and power Growth to handle growing demand Challenges Active management is required to balance generation, transmission, and demand at all times Excursion from ideal operation can be catastrophic 51

44 High Quality Data Recorded Prior to 2003 Blackout Source: HauerJF, NB Bhatt, K Shah, and S Kolluri. (2004). Performance of WAMS East 1 in Providing Dynamic Information for the North East Blackout of August 14, In IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting

45 Illustration of the Grid s Complex Interactions Between Governance and Operations 53

46 Six Strategies 56

47 Deploy Clean Electricity Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Concentrating Solar Power Wind Nuclear Energy Other technologies Natural gas Hydro Solar thermal (parabolic troughs) Geothermal Carbon Capture and Storage 57

48 Additions to U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity, Source: EIA 58

49 Age and Capacity of Generators by Fuel Type Source: EIA 59

50 U.S. Natural Gas Supply,

51 U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, Source: EIA 61

52 Estimated Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Generation CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage; CSP = Concentrating Solar Power; NGCC = Natural Gas Combined Cycle; PV = Photovoltaic 62

53 Annual Grid-Connected Generation Deployment Source: EIA 64

54 Additions to Generation Capacity, vs Source: EIA 65

55 Water Consumption for Various Power Generation Technologies Source: NREL 66

56 Projected 2030 Population Growth and Corresponding State Rainfall Sources: NOAA and U.S. Census Bureau 67

57 DOE s Priority Basic Energy Research Areas Materials Non-Medical Biology Informatics/Computing Materials theory Nanoscience Nanoelectronics Superconductivity Synthesis science Structural and materials Tools and techniques Biofuels Bio-remediation Carbon sequestration Coal bed methane De-sulphurization Enhanced oil recovery Genetically engineered feedstocks Computational fluid dynamics Turbulence Energy Storage Geotechnics Nano science Nuclear energy Predictive simulation 68

58 The Department s Fiscal Year 2011 Energy Technology Budget, Categorized by Strategy Total = $3.0B Transport = 26% Stationary = 74% 71

59 Key Takeaways There are stories for Transport and Stationary Sensible futures, DOE s role, technology programs DOE s energy portfolio is unbalanced Stationary much larger than Transport Clean Power dominates Stationary (~50% of total) DOE needs integrated analytic capability (technology, business, market, policy, and social science) DOE s informational and convening roles are highly valued by stakeholders, but under-valued within the Department (as compared to its technical capabilities) DOE needs to be more selective in its technology initiatives QTR establishes a framework for QER and future QTRs 76

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