Example of mitigation and adaptation measures in the transportation sector. Transportation AND

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1 Research programme: Adaptation to climate change and infrastructure choice 왘 What future climate changes are forecast and what will be their impacts? As highlighted by the 4th IPCC report, actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will not be enough to avoid large-scale climate change in the 21st century. Its effects are already starting to be felt and will intensify: we will therefore have to adapt. Climate change will lead to an average global temperature increase of 1.1 C to 6.4 C, but one of its key impacts will be on the water cycle. Even though there is uncertainty in forecasts concerning future impacts, major melting of the ice floes, the raising of the sea level, acute drought in regions already affected and an increase in the number of heat waves, flooding and cyclones are to be expected. Climate change affects all the continents and all economic sectors: transport, tourism, fisheries, farming, energy or health, and in particular the infrastructure supporting these activities. Adaptation measures are required and need to be quite flexible to take into account uncertainty in weather forecasts. 왘 What about France? 왘 Regions affected by climate change and examples of direct possible impacts requiring the adaptation of infrastructure Indirect impacts of climate change on various economic sectors due, for example, to damage to the marine and continental ecosystems, are not represented. Flandres Nord-Pas-de-Calais Picardie Lille Amiens So Normandie CITIES: - Heat waves: increased local pollution with consequences on health and on energy consumption (renovation of buildings required) - Urban flooding: overflowing of drainage networks Dunkerque mm e Le Havre Rouen Reims Metz Paris Brest Strasbourg Nancy in Se Rennes e Orléans Nantes VOSGES Lo ire Angers Mulhouse Dijon Tours Besançon JURA Vendée Centre-Atlantique Limoges Saintonge Clermont Ferrand SOUTH OF THE LOIRE: - Major risks of more intense droughts: major consequences for farming - More frequent forest fires - Risk of modification of flash flooding phenomena in the Cévennes ALPES Grenoble Rhône Ga ro n ne Aquitaine COAST LINES: - Departments with coast lines most threatened by erosion and/or submersion - Risks of complete immersion of polders. - Ports and associated industries threatened by flooding Beaches: erosion, sanding up of the rear coast. Estuaries: erosion, salinisation, submersion Bays: filling Lyon MASSIF CENTRAL Bordeaux MOUNTAINS: - Reduction in the size of skiing areas: decrease in tourism - Increased natural risks: flooding, avalanches, landslide Nîmes Toulouse PACA Nice Montpellier PYRÉNÉES Source: Mission Climat reporting to the IPCC, Météo France, OECD and Conservatoire du Littoral Marseille Toulon RIVERS: - Greater risk of flooding - Power plants and industries: cooling problem due to the higher water temperature

2 What can we do? Mitigation and adaptation options Mitigation: reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the source or increased storage of these gases in wells. Adaptation: adjustment of natural or human systems to avoid damage or profit from the advantages linked to climate change. Mitigation and adaptation are two complementary actions: measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are needed to limit global warming, but are not sufficient to avert danger. Adaptation measures need to be found to respond effectively to new climate changes. Depending on the case, it will for example be necessary to install flood protection infrastructure protection such as dykes or dams. Adaptation also concerns present and future infrastructure not primarily design - ed for protection purposes: transport infrastructure, buildings, water production and distribution networks need to adapt to precipitation and temperatures that do not fall within current seasonal norms. This infrastructure needs to be resilient and flexible to operate through a wide range of different and uncertain climates. Example of mitigation and adaptation measures in the transportation sector Transportation Mitigation Aim: reducing CO2 emissions due to transportation AND Adaptation Aim: protecting transportation infrastructure against potential impacts of climate change (floods, heat) Promoting low consumption cars Developing agri-fuels Developing public transport Adjustment of zoning maps to new conditions and requirements Raising bridges Improving permeability of roads and heat resistance Modifying port infrastructure Improving thermal comfort in public transport Example of mitigation and adaptation measures in the building sector Mitigation: Buildings reducing CO2 emissions, for example using solar panels. Adaptation: Floating houses in Canada and the Netherlands to cope with occasional flooding.

3 Presentation of the research programme of Mission Climat of Caisse des Dépôts In 2008 Caisse des Dépôts is launching an inter - national research programme on adaptation to climate change focused on the issue of designing and funding infrastructure. Because infrastructure has a long lifecycle and requires considerable financial investment, it is essential to take into account climate change in the design of new infrastructure and modify old infrastructure if necessary. This requires active and effective debate between public decisionmakers, companies and experts in climate change, as well as the development of economic tools adapted to this type of funding. The research programme is structured around two areas: - an analytic area which examines the economic tools to be set up, - application modules which are supported by concrete infrastructure management examples. Presentation of the research programme Analytical base: economic and financial instruments Investment and uncertainties / Impacts of climate change / Insurance economics North-South problems Cities and local government Water, agriculture and forests Industrial infrastructure Financial sector Organisation of financial and technical transfers for infrastructure investments in the South and countries with low adaptive capacity Adaptation of certain vulnerable towns (large real estate capital, concentration of the population, activities linked to climate conditions) to new climate conditions Awareness of climate change in the management of natural infrastructure: development of basins, coastlines, adaptation of the irrigation system Adaptation of existing and new infrastructure: - Production of energy - Leisure: problems in the mountains and maritime zones - Water management and distribution - Ports Improved funding of projects by long-term public/private partnerships Insurance and financial Innovations: cat bonds, weather derivatives, etc. This programme, proposed by Mission Climat of Caisse des Dépôts, will be conducted in partnership with public authorities including ONERC, academic researchers, major infrastructure companies and national and international institutes (Météo France, CIRED, OECD, TERI in India). Administrative and financial management will be handled by a non-profit making organisation, APREC (Association for the Promotion of Research in the Economy of Carbon), already in charge of other projects linked to carbon finance.

4 Within the framework of this programme, two initiatives have already been set up: Organisation of an academic symposium headed by Dr Pachauri, chairman of the IPC Headed by Dr Pachauri (director of TERI) and various contributors to the IPCC report, including Jean Jouzel (director of Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace), Stéphane Hallegatte (economist at Météo France-CIRED) and Shardul Agrawala (principal board member of the OECD) as well as Claude Henry (Ecole Polytechnique and Columbia University) and Christian de Perthuis (Mission Climat and Paris Dauphine University), the symposium brought together more than 800 people on 16 th January 2008 on the theme of adaptation to climate change. All symposium material is available from: From left to right: Claude Henry, Christian de Perthuis, Shardul Agrawala, Jean Jouzel, Rajendra K. Pachauri, Jean-Marie Chevalier (Professor at Université Paris-Dauphine), Laurent Batsch (President of Université Paris-Dauphine), Stéphane Hallegatte. Launch of a Cities and climate change club: Aimed at French local authorities that lack information on their role in this area, the club aims to pool together knowledge on the link between management and funding of infrastructure and climate change. It will focus on possible mitigation and adaptation measures involving urban infrastructure and its funding. For that, three annual meetings will be set up with the participation of French local authorities and companies providing development services (energy, building, transport, water), which will discuss with climate change and infrastructure economics experts. For more information Please contact Alexia Leseur: alexia.leseur@caissedesdepots.fr or Sylvie Koziel: sylvie.koziel@caissedesdepots.fr or Useful links: United nations framework convention on climate change European Union (2007 green paper on adaptation) ONERC (French national adaptation to climate change strategy) Météo France OCDE CIRED TERI (The Energy and Research Institute) : IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): Mission Climat of Caisse des Dépôts APREC (Association pour la Recherche en Economie du Carbone) March Photos: Caisse des Dépôts Jean-Marc Pettina Fotolia

5 Examples of global projected impacts of climate change Andes Malaria Dengue Cholera WATER CYCLE DISTURBANCE Rise in water availability Increased water stress/ risk of heatwaves Increased frequency and/ or intensity of weather extremes Glaciers melting/ Permafrost melting Increased risks of coastal floods Increased risks of river floods Alps Himalaya Malaria Kilimanjaro Cholera Diarrhoeal disease IMPACTS ON BIOSPHERE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE Reduced yields Outbreak/expansion of areas suitable for disease transmission High Endangered ecosystems Low Change in fish distribution and/ or reduced production Source: Mission Climat reporting to the IPCC