Mainstreaming climate change resilience in urban development plan: Case of Ahmedabad, India

Transcription

1 Mainstreaming climate change resilience in urban development plan: Case of Ahmedabad, India Minal Pathak CEPT University Ahmedabad, INDIA Workshop on Tools and Indicators for Assessing Urban Resilience December 7-10, 2015

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3 Definition Resilience: Evolution of the concept IPCC SAR 2001: IPCC TAR 2001 IPCC FAR 2007 IPCC AR Adaptive Capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences Amount of change a system can undergo without changing state. The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change The capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event, trend or disturbance, responding, reorganizing in ways to maintain their essential function, identity and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation Climate-resilient pathways are development trajectories that combine adaptation and mitigation to realize the goal of sustainable development Climate-resilient pathways may involve significant transformations -not only building that foundation of resilience (and its institutional, governance, and financial underpinnings) but also mobilizing new resources, adjusting building and land use regulations, and continuously developing the local capacity to respond

4 Sustainable Development & Climate Change UN, 2015

5 National Policies focusing on Sustainable Urban Development Policy/Mission Key focus areas INDC Developing climate resilient urban centers Safe, smart and sustainable green transportation network National Sustainable Habitat Mission Smart Cities Mission Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation To develop sustainable habitats sustainable transportation waste management energy efficient buildings To develop 100 smart cities Replication to other cities To revitalize and rejuvenate 500 cities ensuring basic infrastructure services green spaces and parks climate resilient and energy efficient policies and regulations.

6 Challenges disaggregated over time and space Reorienting Urban Development Managing and reorienting existing urban development What to do differently and how to do it? Expanding the scope and space : Cities approach and thinking expands to global thinking Affects time frame : Urban researchers and practitioners have to position themselves in global space Short term Temporal Long term Spatial Local Global Env risks, resource demands, vulnerability to climate Energy supply, rising emissions Increasing risks from climate events (impacts on infrastructure, GDP, etc.) Adverse lock-ins from high carbon growth Modified from Pathak et al., 2015

7 Temporal Short-term Long-term SSPs Downscaling Assessment to City Scale Downscaling Scenarios Global Global Protocols o Technology Transfer o Adaptation Funds o Green Climate Funds Spatial Local National Urban Policy under different SSPs City Level o Mitigation Targets o Adaptation Plan Climate Policy Domain Mitigation Adaptation Integrated CGE Models Sea-level Rise Model IAMs Global Downscaling Models Spatial Local Energy System Model Accounting Model Water System Model GIS Linked Models Local plans Ref: Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority (2011) Draft Comprehensive Development Plan 2021, Government of Gujarat Bottom Up City-level elements : Physical, Socio-economic vulnerability Potential to act:-adaptive capacity, access to finance, flexibility Behavioral and Cultural factors-change in lifestyle, energy efficiency rebound effect

8 Steps for Climate Compatible Urban Development Feedback Cross cutting issues Synergies &Tradeoffs Stakeholder engagement Impacts (% targets achieved) City Targets for CCD Integrated Assessment at Urban Scale Climate Compatible Development Strategies Implementation Climate compatible urban development City Development Plans Sectoral Plans (CMPs) Short and Long term goals and targets at city level and sector level Criteria and Indicators Low carbon/resilience Cost of actions Co-benefits Policies/ Instruments (Building codes, land use, zoning) Roadmap showing long term, medium term and short term actions Mainstreaming in existing policy Institutions Finance 8

9 Income ( 000 INR) Ahmedabad case study Sabarmati River AMC 450 sq km AUDA 1298 sq km Population (millions)

10 Source: AUDA DP 2021 Ahmedabad case study

11 Pathak and Shukla, 2015; Shukla et al., 2010, Mahadevia et al., 2014 Multiple Challenges Loss of green cover October 1991 October 2000 Slums Raykar P, CEPT, 2006 Water Demand (MLD) * 2031*

12 Pathak and Shukla, Trans Res. 2015; Shukla et al., 2010 Energy and Emissions Index: 1991 value is equal to Growth in vehicles Car Two-wheeler PM10 levels Transport CO2 Emissions (Mn Tons)

13 Coping with in-situ climate Jain and Pathak, 2014

14 Projections for Mean Temperature Long Term Temperature increase of 2 C by 2050 Increase in number of hot days and hot nights, frequency of droughts

15 Number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 40 o C

16 Temperature mortality relationships for Ahmedabad and Mumbai Dholakia et al., 2014; Pathak et al., 2015 Summer season Winter season

17 Vulnerability Projected Climate Scenarios Temperature Reduced precipitation Demand for Resources Water Energy demand Impact on Communities Heat related mortality Economic Impacts Occupational risks Aggravates environmental risks Infrastructure Predisposing Factors High growth Pressure on existing water resources Reduced green and open space Shrinking lakes Reduced green and open spaces Microclimate: Heat Island

18 Ahmedabad Urban Development Plan 2021 AUDA 2014

19 Resilience Strategies Specific Themes Housing and Land Use Water Resource Management and Governance Ecosystem-based adaptation in urban governance and planning Incentives/charges for climate resilient practices Building capacity of communities and stakeholders Financing Long Term Goal e.g. Affordable climate resilient housing for all Goals and Specific Measures in the Short and Medium Term TDRs, zoning, and DCRs to increase supply of affordable housing Building codes and guidelines for climate sensitive building design, (passive cooling, green/white roofs, and mandate common green areas in buildings Slum Upgradation Programs

20 Integrated Framework for Climate Compatible Urban Development

21 Assessment Challenges for Resilience Addressing climate risks and uncertainties Mainstreaming What we need High resolution fine scale urban climate scenarios Delineating additional climate burden compared to baseline Vertical Integration: SDGs, National goals Comprehensive approach- the unified governance, planning and infrastructure Urban infrastructure choices to avoid lock-ins Synergies and conflicts Implementation Mitigation-adaptation : common infrastructure Co-benefit assessment (energy access, air pollution, resources, etc.) Toolkits and guidebooks Technology and financial needs assessment for translating into bankable on ground projects

22 Measuring Urban Resilience Measurability and comparability: Can there be a universal resilience index or a more a more specific contextual (location, development stage)- reconciling relativeness of the scale vs absoluteness of the scale. Risks and Uncertainty-How do you build in impacts of climate extremes -attention to fat tail distribution Integration: How to get an aggregate measure of resilience, cobenefits (SDGs) and co-costs? Inclusiveness for gender, class, income groups Minal.Pathak@cept.ac.in Thank you