Climate Change Impacts, Resilience and Urban Development in India

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts, Resilience and Urban Development in India The New Climate Economy China- India Dialogue, New Delhi 29 January 2018

2 India s Urbanisation - Context Increasing urbanization Higher energy intensity and carbon footprint per capita than overall country Higher GDP/capita than overall country China India High growth rates 2014 Urban Population Projected Urban Population in Million 56% 1+ Billion 75% 410 million 32% 800+ Million 50% Source: ICRIER Background paper 2016

3 Urbanisation Growth Impact McKinsey, 2010

4 Vulnerability indicators Temperature Rainfall Altitude Population density Slum Population Literacy Employment Parikh et al,2011

5 Projected Annual Mean Temperature Rise 2030 Q0, Q1 and Q14 Scenario runs PRECIS A1B IPCC INCCA, 2010

6 Change in Frequency of Rainy days INCCA, 2010 % change of 2030 from 1970 Q0, Q1 and Q14 Scenario runs PRECIS A1B IPCC

7 Change in Intensity of Rainy Days INCCA, 2010 % change of 2030 from 1970 Q0, Q1 and Q14 Scenario runs PRECIS A1B IPCC

8 Change in Summer monsoon rainfall INCCA, 2010 In mm change of 2030 from 1970 Q0, Q1 and Q14 Scenario runs PRECIS A1B IPCC

9 Rainfall distribution during floods Central India Roxy et al, Nature Communications 2017

10 Frequency of Widespread Extreme Rainfall Events Central India Rainfall 150 mm Number of days when events cover 10 or more grids Roxy et al, Nature Communications 2017

11 Impacts/ Risks Urban Heat Island Effect Floods Drought Sea Level Rise Water Scarcity Human Health Parikh et al,2011

12 IIHS, 2014 Bengaluru Climate Risk Vulnerabilities

13 Benchmarking CO2 Emissions Source: ICLEI,

14 IIHS, 2014 Vulnerable Population- Income

15 ADB, 2017 Urban Heat Island Effect

16 Ahmedabad- Heat wave

17 Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan

18 Cool Roofs - Ahmedabad Shardaben Hospital White Mosaic Cool Roof

19 Publicity Campaign - Ahmedabad

20 Annual CO 2 Emissions (Ahmedabad) Million Tonnes CO t/capita 5.63t/capita 3.13t/capita 8.15t/capita 2.32t/capita Vehicle Efficiency Industrial Efficiency Building Efficiency Fuel switch Energy Intensity

21 Mumbai Maximum Rainfall July 2005 floods 944 mm in 24 hours Direct loss Million US$ Ranger et al,2011

22 Future Proofing- Madurai Action Plan Sewer System Rehabilitation Sanitation- Community Capacity Building Improved Solid Waste Management (PPP approach, anaerobic digestion, integrated waste management plan) Channel and tank restoration, protection and management Flood and Surface water infrastructure, capacity building Water Resources Capacity Building Blue Green Infrastructure co-ordination Green City plan Plan for community participation Future Proofing Indian Cities, 2014

23 Low Carbon & Climate Resilient Kolkata Roof Garden or Green Roof

24

25

26

27

28 Modelled PM 10 concentrations 2010 Guttikunda and Jawahar,201116

29 PM 10 values 2010 for some cities

30 Modelled 2010 PM concentrations by source Guttikunda and Jawahar,2011

31 Summary of Air Pollutants for some cities 2010 Guttikunda and Jawahar,2011

32 PM 10 Monitored Average monthly data, 2010 Guttikunda and Jawahar,2011

33 Mortality & Morbidity Estimates, 2010 Guttikunda and Jawahar,2011

34 COMPETING TEAMS Dezhou Solar City Total teams : 22 Chinese teams : 12 International teams : Teams, 12 Chinese 34

35 70 student 9 Faculty

36 Possible Synergies Sharing of Best practices Comparison of Low Carbon city performance benchmarking Future proofing, climate resilience Workshops, Case studies Innovative solutions Grand challenges Joint India- China teams (Climate Resilience Challenge ) Capacity Building City planning,smart operations shared resources Air pollution monitoring, research, strategies Joint research and actions Affordable Social Housing Energy Plus, Slum Rehabilitation Technology Transfer Electric Vehicles, Mass transit, Waste to Energy Joint Ventures? Data Analytics, Research collaboration- monitoring networks

37 References ADB, 2017,DOI: S. Guttikunda and P.Jawahar, 2011, Shakti Foundation India.pdf J.Parikh, M.Mishra, D.Upadhyay, Urban India, Vol 31, No 12, 2011 UNEP,2011: Cities Investing in energy and resource efficiency, Towards a Green Economy, United Nations Environment Programme, India s Urban Awakening, Mckinsey, Roxy et al, NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 8: 708 DOI: /s Ranger et al, Climatic Change (2011) 104: DOI /s Thank you