Eastern Interconnection Planning Project Status John P Buechler NYISO Executive Regulatory Policy Advisor

Transcription

1 Eastern Interconnection Planning Project Status John P Buechler NYISO Executive Regulatory Policy Advisor NPCC Governmental/Regulatory Affairs Advisory Group Meeting November 27, 2012 Montreal, Quebec

2 Project Overview Phase 1 11/20/09 to 12/16/11 Establish Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) Roll-up and integration of regional plans for Macroeconomic futures Input assumptions determined by states/stakeholders Up to 9 sensitivities of input variables on each future Phase 1 Report Phase 2 1/1/12 to 12/31/12 3 Future resource scenarios with fully developed transmission build-out options that meet reliability requirements Phase 2 Report 2

3 Project Schedule Overview Phase 1 Schedule 11/20/09 to 12/16/11 Phase 1 work completed 12/23/11 Phase 1 report posted on EIPC website Phase 2 Schedule 1/1/12 to 12/31/12 Phase 2 process documents drafted and reviewed with stakeholders during Fall, 2011 Currently working on: Finishing transmission build-outs Production cost modeling Developing capital cost estimates Phase 2 report 3

4 Overarching Observations The stakeholder process is functioning in a robust and active manner Stakeholder Steering Committee Consensus based Active and intense dialog Excellent working relationship between the state s organization (EISPC) and EIPC Stakeholder education on planning processes has been a key part of the project 4

5 Phase 1 Resource Expansion Futures 1. Business as Usual assumes present trends continue 2. Federal Carbon Constraint: National Implementation 3. Federal Carbon Constraint: Regional Implementation 4. Aggressive Energy Efficiency, Demand Response, Distributed Generation and Smart Grid 5. National RPS: National Implementation (top down) 6. National RPS: State and Regional Implementation 7. Nuclear Resurgence 8. Combined Federal Climate and Energy Policy Future 5

6 Phase 2 3 Scenarios 1. Combined Federal Climate and Energy Policy National carbon constraint with 42% reduction in 2030 and 80% in 2050, 30% national RPS, increased Energy Efficiency/Demand Response/Distributed Generation/Smart Grid [F8S7] 2. National RPS- Regional Implementation Regionally Implemented 30% National RPS [F6S10] 3. Business As Usual Includes EPA non-carbon regulations & existing state RPS and EE programs No new policies or regulations on carbon, no new RPS, no new EPA regulations [F1S17] 6

7 Installed 2030 EI Capacity by Type: 3 Scenarios Installed Capacity in 2030 F1S17 F6S10 F8S7 Total BAU Hard Flat 2010 Base Limit CO2 Coal Nuclear CC CT Steam Oil/Gas Hydro On-Shore Wind Off-Shore Wind Other Renewable New HQ/Maritimes Other Total w/o DR DR Total w/dr Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 1

8 2030 Energy Source: 3 Scenarios EI generation as a percent of demand, EI energy demand, and EI CO 2 emissions are shown below for 2030 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 BAU Reg RPS Nat'l CO2 F1S17 F6S10 F8S7 CC 25% 13% 26% Coal 38% 33% 0% Nuclear 22% 23% 35% On-Shore Wind 5% 13% 27% Off-Shore Wind 0% 4% 0% Hydro 5% 6% 8% Total 96% 91% 96% Demand (TWh) Change from BAU -3% -19% CO2 (MilMetricTons) Change from BAU -23% -85% 8

9 Phase 2 Transmission Analysis The Study Year is 2030 Transmission additions required to meet reliability testing consistent with NERC standards Five tests: N-0, N-1, N-G-1, common tower, bus fault >300kV Production Cost (annual) for Each Scenario Sensitivity analysis included Estimate of the Costs for Generation and Transmission Expansion Deliverable: Transmission options to support each of the resource scenarios NOT a Plan. 9

10 Scenario 1 Combined Policy (low CO2) Case Development N-0/N-1 Contingency Analysis Transmission Build-out: Over 290 Generation Interconnection projects Over 325 Constraint Relief projects 6 HVDC lines Reliability Testing Complete Map - ons_draft.pdf 10

11 Scenario 1 Generation Interconnections 11

12 Scenario 1 - Constraints 12

13 Scenario 1 Constraint Relief 13

14 Scenario 2 RPS/Regional Implementation Case Development N-0/N-1 Contingency Analysis Transmission Build-out: Over 280 Generation Interconnection projects Over 200 Constraint Relief projects No new inter-regional HVDC lines (one within New York) Reliability Testing Complete Map - ons_draft.pdf 14

15 Scenario 2 Generation Interconnections 15

16 Scenario 2 - Constraints 16

17 Scenario 2 Constraint Relief 17

18 Scenario 3 Business As Usual Case Development N-0/N-1 Contingency Analysis Transmission Build-out: Over 50 Generation Interconnection projects Over 165 Constraint Relief projects No new HVDC lines Reliability Testing Complete Map - ons_draft.pdf 18

19 Scenario 3 Generation Interconnections 19

20 Scenario 3 - Constraints 20

21 Scenario 3 Constraint Relief 21